I don't personally care if Tate's skin color is vermilion with chartreuse spots, though that might clash horribly with the Pats' uniform.
I've also never thought/expected that Tate was the "next" Jerry Rice. I don't think he NEEDS to be the next Jerry Rice to be everything the Pats need for his role. Perhaps you believe Tate DOES need to be the next Jerry Rice in order to be acceptable.
In any case, here's how Tate compares with some other mediocre WRs.
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First season production comparison of selected WRs:
1ST ---- Draft --- PLAYER ---------------------------------- CATCH
Season - Pick# ---------------------------------------------- RATE
2003 --- 3 -- Andre Johnson ----- 16 gms - 66/976 - 4 TDs - 55%
2004 --- 3 -- Larry Fitzgerald ----- 16 gms - 58/780 - 8 TDs - 51%
2005 -- 27 -- Roddy White ------- 16 gms - 29/446 - 3 TDs - 43%
2001 -- 30 -- Reggie Wayne ------ 13 gms - 27/345 - 0 TDs - 55%
2001 -- 36 -- Chad Ochocinco ---- 12 gms - 28/329 -- 1 TD - 47%
2001 -- 74 -- Steve Smith (CAR) - 15 gms - 10/154 - 0 TDs - 50%
2010 -- 83 -- B. TATE ----------- 16 gms - 24/432 - 3 TDs - 52%
1997 -- 98 -- Derrick Mason ------ 16 gms - 14/186 - 0 TDs - 47%
2005 - 119 -- Brandon Marshall --- 15 gms - 20/309 - 2 TDs - unk
LEADING 2010 WRs BY Yds/Catch:
WR ---------- YPC - Total - YAC - Air yds - 20+% - Lng - TD% - C/R
B. Lloyd ------ 18.8 - 1448 - 198 -- 16.2 -- 30% --- 71 - 14% - 50%
M. Floyd ------ 19.4 -- 717 - 118 -- 16.2 -- 32% --- 55 - 16% - 48%
Armstrong ---- 19.8 -- 871 - 171 -- 15.9 -- 34% --- 76 -- 7% - 51%
Britt ---------- 18.5 -- 775 - 124 -- 15.5 -- 29% --- 80 - 21% - 58%
D. Jackson ---- 22.5 - 1056 - 354 -- 14.9 -- 45% --- 91 - 13% - 49%
Wallace ------- 21.0 - 1257 - 364 -- 14.9 -- 43% --- 56 - 17% - 60%
Knox ---------- 18.8 -- 960 - 243 -- 14.1 -- 33% --- 67 - 12% - 51%
BRANDON TATE 18.0 -- 432 - 112 -- 13.3 -- 33% --- 65 - 13% - 52%
Naanee -------- 16.1 -- 371 -- 92 -- 12.1 -- 22% --- 59 -- 4% - 50%
Edwards ------- 17.1 -- 904 - 290 -- 11.6 -- 26% --- 74 - 13% - 52%
Jennings ------- 16.6 - 1265 - 415 -- 11.2 -- 28% --- 86 - 16% - 61%
Obomanu ------ 16.5 -- 494 - 182 -- 10.4 -- 23% --- 87 - 13% - 60%
Hester --------- 11.9 -- 475 - 222 -- 6.3 -- 10% --- 39 - 10% - 55%
So, based on the above comp catch rates, if Tate stopped "dropping so many", maybe he WOULD be the next Jerry Rice, since only 4 fewer drops would have put him over 60%.
"Punching Bag" comparison:
RECEIVING
Tate ----------- 24/432, 18.0 ypc, 3 TDs, 52% CATCH RATE (2010 only, 16 games)
Bethel Johnson - 30/450, 15.0 ypc, 4 TDs, 47% CATCH RATE (THREE SEASON TOTAL, 39 games)
Chad Jackson --- 13/152, 11.7 ypc, 3 TDs ----- (TWO SEASON TOTAL, 14 games)
KICK RETURNS
Tate ---- 41/1057, 25.8 ypKR, 2 TDs (2010 only)
Johnson - 41/1016, 24.8 ypKR, 1 TD (2004 - his BEST season)
Hester -- 43/934,, 21.7 ypKR, 2 TDs (2007 - his BEST season at KR)
Hobbs --- 45/1281, 28.5 ypKR, 1 TD (2008*)
*The only better single season KR performance in the BB Era.
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Tate ---- 4/106, 26.5 ypKR (2009 - active two games)
Jackson - 6/106, 17.7 ypKR (TOTAL KR production in TWO seasons, 14 games)
Finally, for those who believe that 2010 was somehow anything close to a "second full season" for Tate:
Tate tore his ACL and MCL and missed the final 8 games (of 13) of his senior season.
- He did not perform in any workouts prior to the 2009 draft while recovering from knee surgery (AFAIK).
- He was put on NFI/PUP for the Pats' 2009 training camp and was not allowed to practice with the team.
- He was moved to 2009 regular season PUP after camp and was not allowed to practice with the team for six more weeks.
- He was activated for Week 7 (earliest possible date) and remained active for 2 games (3 weeks, including the BYE).
- In his second active game (3rd week), he re-injured his knee and was placed on IR, and was not allowed to practice with the team (even if he could work out at all).
So, from November 2008 (at the latest) through the start of 2010 OTAs (March?) at the earliest - a period of 19 months (76 weeks) - Tate probably had no more than three weeks of full practice with the Pats. That doesn't count as a "season" IMHO, but your standards may be somewhat harsher.