Improvement against the run

[wcpatsfan]

The two are interrelated, but I think it has more to do with general toughness than run defense. This is a team that got absolutely pushed around by the Ravens in the playoffs. It was embarassing. We also got manhandled against premiere opponents in the regular season (Saints, second half of the Colts game) and just generally got pushed around on the road. The point of all this is that we lost a lot of games simply because the other teams were tougher and more disciplined. That isn't what we have come to expect from a Bill Belichick-led team, and I think this year's draft was about getting back to tough, hard-nosed, disciplined football.

 

[Patriot 37]

A name not mentioned was Chung, who considered a top run defender coming out of the draft. If can start at SS or at least get more playing time that will improve the run D as well.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Throwing out the regular season games the Pats won by more than 10 points, here is what is left:

Bills
Edwards 15-25/212/2
Jackson 15/57/0

Jets
Sanchez 14-22/163/1
Washington 14/58/0
Jones 14/54/0

Ravens
Flacco 27-47/264/2
Rice 11/103/0

Broncos
Orton 35-48/330/2
Moreno 21/88/0

Dolphins
Henne 19-34/219/0
Brown 15/48/0

Colts
Manning 28-44/327/4
Addai 10/41/1

Saints
Brees 18-23/371/5
Thomas 11/64/0
Bell 13/50/0

Dolphins
Henne 29-52/335/2
Williams 18/75/0

Panthers
Moore 15-30/197/1
Williams 13/82/0

Bills
Fitzpatrick 17-25/178/1
Jackson 15/80/0

Texans
Schaub 24-39/303/2
Foster 20/119/2

I'm not sure how anyone could have watched these games and determined that the run defense was an issue. It certainly wasn't perfect but the pass defense in these games was below average/poor for the most part. I can understand Manning/Brees/Schaub. I have no tolerance for Edwards/Sanchez/Orton/Moore/Fitzpatrick keeping their teams in games. The Pats lost 2 of those games (Sanchez/Orton) and should have lost a 3rd (Edwards).

As for the Raven playoff game, it is foolish to make any team/scheme adjustments based on this game. I'm not sure how you evaluate the defense based on 1 play (that they were clearly not ready to defend) and a handful of drives starting inside the college OT starting point. You don't think it affects your defense when they start drives in the shadow of their goal line?

I read the McCourty/Spikes picks a little differently. They have a lot of experience dropping into zone coverage and playing read&react. They are both sneaky-smart in playing the intermediate middle zones...which is exactly where these hack QBs above looked for quick, high percentage passes. So I look for more disguised coverages and complex schemes to confuse QBs, which gives the rush an extra second and leads to rushed passes and turnovers.

O.K., so you chose what games to include and not include, but all I know is they were 13th against the run at over 110 yards per game, at 4.4 yards per carry. So, you also want to ignore the 234 rushing yards against the Pats in their lone playoff game. Let's just exclude all the bad games and say their rushing defense was dominant, and we're all set. It was not an issue.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Absolutely. So why do those circumstances dictate putting a stronger run defense on the field? Don't get me wrong, I'm all for defending the run better, particularly at Seymour's old spot. But unless the pass defense shows dramatic improvement, it won't make a lick of difference in the end result (win/loss).

Respectfully, I don't think there is a person here who doesn't want drastic improvement in the pass defense, so I think you're arguing with yourself. I'm sure you're like most of us and watched all 21 Patriot games last year (including preseason). Did you think they were good against the run? Mayo's play dropped off against the run. Guyton was horrible against the run. A. Thomas was lousy against the run and pass.

Forget 'I picked these games and the stats prove they were good'. Did our eyes deceive us? They need a big time upgrade against the run. I believe in watching the tape, but even if you're strictly a stat guy, 110 yards per game, and 4.4 yards per carry would tell anybody that they need to improve the run defense.

All I was suggesting is that they may very well have done that, and I was suggesting that such an improvement would even help against the pass, and I explained why.

Not exactly sure what your point is, other than you don't think the run defense needs improving. They were certainly good at times, but I think most of us saw all kinds of room for improvement. I respect your right to disagree. For the record, I wish they drafted Willie McGinist, and Richard Seymour, and they kick butt rushing the passer. We're gonna have to hope they hit on Cunningham, Deadrich, and/or others. We'll find out.

 

[eom]

Throwing out the regular season games the Pats won by more than 10 points, here is what is left:



I'm not sure how anyone could have watched these games and determined that the run defense was an issue. It certainly wasn't perfect but the pass defense in these games was below average/poor for the most part. I can understand Manning/Brees/Schaub. I have no tolerance for Edwards/Sanchez/Orton/Moore/Fitzpatrick keeping their teams in games. The Pats lost 2 of those games (Sanchez/Orton) and should have lost a 3rd (Edwards).

As for the Raven playoff game, it is foolish to make any team/scheme adjustments based on this game. I'm not sure how you evaluate the defense based on 1 play (that they were clearly not ready to defend) and a handful of drives starting inside the college OT starting point. You don't think it affects your defense when they start drives in the shadow of their goal line?

are you being serious or is this a joke post?

 

[mgteich]

I think that there will be improvement inside. Lewis will improve us at DT. Spikes and McKenzie should be an improvement over Guyton, and Mayo is healthy. And yes, McCourty might help.

Outside I suspect that we are weaker. Green was better than any of his replacements against the run. And there hasn't been any improvement at OLB against the run.

Something has jumped out at me, after the acquisitions over the last many weeks. There is alot of talk about how we drastically (sorry, I say "we" alot) needed to help the pass rush, and did not.

However, it seems like we may have drastically helped our run defense, in a big way. Lewis and Warren are big bodies who are said to do very well against the run. Cunningham is also said to be very good against the run. Deadrich and Weston are supposedly immovable objects against the run, upon reading my 17 Draft Guides.

McKenzie should be back healthy and was a tackling machine in college, and guess what, draft pick Spikes is awesome against the run.

Oh, and by the way, McCourty is the best CB against the run in the draft.

The only reason I'm posting this, is it is not just possible, but likely that this team will be very tough to run against.

If the opposition can't run against the Patriots, and get in situations where they must pass to succeed, will not by definition, the pass rush be improved? What I'm saying is, when you know a team must pass on you, you can scheme and plan your pass rush. Teams are more successful against the pass, when they can pin their ears back and rush full monty.

I'd be interested to hear if anybody else has thought about this? I don't think I'm off base here.

 

[Patriot 37]

Outside I suspect that we are weaker. Green was better than any of his replacements against the run. And there hasn't been any improvement at OLB against the run.

Outside I'd say we are likely the same as last year, but not weaker.

Even in the years when Green was playing well he was average as a run defender. I agree he's better against the run than Wright, but I think G. Warren or Lewis can at least equal what Green did last year. Also, Deadrick or Richard could potentially improve the run D. At OLB equaling Thomas/Burgess won't be hard.

 

[Metaphors]

are you being serious or is this a joke post?

Are you seriously suggesting that the Pats should alter the roster or the scheme based on a single 80 yd TD run? Because that is the part you bolded in my post. If not, which part of my post do you have a problem with? The Ravens game was unlike any game the Pats played in 2009 or even in recent memory. That makes it an anomaly and any observations taken from it would be outliers. You really want to make decisions based on that?

Back to the OP, I see the McCourty, Spikes, etc. acquisitions as being vital to defending the intermediate middle of the field against the pass. If they are solid, physical tacklers against the run but are liabilities (or even subpar) in coverage, I'm not sure how they get on the field very often.

 

[RayClay]

Lewis will improve us at DT.

You think they will play a 4-3 on run downs?

 

[Coach42]

Are you seriously suggesting that the Pats should alter the roster or the scheme based on a single 80 yd TD run? Because that is the part you bolded in my post. If not, which part of my post do you have a problem with? The Ravens game was unlike any game the Pats played in 2009 or even in recent memory. That makes it an anomaly and any observations taken from it would be outliers. You really want to make decisions based on that?

Back to the OP, I see the McCourty, Spikes, etc. acquisitions as being vital to defending the intermediate middle of the field against the pass. If they are solid, physical tacklers against the run but are liabilities (or even subpar) in coverage, I'm not sure how they get on the field very often.

I think the problem wasn't that they were getting run all over or that they are adjusting to one playoff game. I think the run D was just enough of a weakness last year that teams were able to keep it to third and short. In the past the Pats have had the ability to force third and longs because they were so stout against the run, especially inside the 30. Last year not so much. The D having to read run/pass more often in third down situations contributed both to the poor pass and run D numbers.

 

[patsfan-1982]

the run defense should be better with mayo at 100% and the backups are now Tyrone McKenzie, and Brandon Spikes, not 40 year old Junior Seau, who let's face it was just takeing up a roster spot last year.


i don't see Gerard Warren, as a upgrade i don't even think he will make the team Damione Lewis, should help some im not sure if he is a upgrade over green, but he should be ok i think Myron Pryor, will start at RDE and do a good job

 

[Metaphors]

Lots of good points here. I'll comment from memory to avoid the "stat guy" label...

I think the problem wasn't that they were getting run all over or that they are adjusting to one playoff game. I think the run D was just enough of a weakness last year that teams were able to keep it to third and short.

I think conceptually you are correct, but I don't remember any regular season games developing this way. Opponents were in workable 3rd down situations far too often last year, but they got that way through short, safe passes more often than not. In 2002, teams were able to run pretty much at will and then turn to play action when the Pats crowded the line. That being said, I'm not advocating turning the D into the Colts or Saints...just that stopping the pass on any down/distance is a priority and a prerequisite for players getting on the field.

In the past the Pats have had the ability to force third and longs because they were so stout against the run, especially inside the 30. Last year not so much.

I agree with the problems inside the 30 over the last couple of years, but again this seems like teams generally got the ball into the end zone through the air MUCH more than on the ground. So it is hard for me to tell if the Pats are stout against the run when they are backed up since opponents find it easier to pass in those situations.

The D having to read run/pass more often in third down situations contributed both to the poor pass and run D numbers.

No doubt. The key is how to align players and scheme to get more 3rd and 4+ yards...and then be able to defend 5 yard routes on 3rd down successfully. The Pats have been below average in both of those respects against good teams (which is really all that matters).

 

[Coach42]

the run defense should be better with mayo at 100% and the backups are now Tyrone McKenzie, and Brandon Spikes, not 40 year old Junior Seau, who let's face it was just takeing up a roster spot last year.


i don't see Gerard Warren, as a upgrade i don't even think he will make the team Damione Lewis, should help some im not sure if he is a upgrade over green, but he should be ok i think Myron Pryor, will start at RDE and do a good job

I don't think that anyone sees Warren as an upgrade but what he is is a big body who can be rotated around the line keeping the likes of Wilfork and Ty Warren fresh. BB has always liked having depth on the D line to keep the hogs fresh. I think Lewis and Warren's biggest contributions will be providing depth, not starting or playing a majority of the snaps.

 

[Patriot 37]

i don't see Gerard Warren, as a upgrade i don't even think he will make the team Damione Lewis, should help some im not sure if he is a upgrade over green, but he should be ok i think Myron Pryor, will start at RDE and do a good job

There is no way that Pryor at 6-1 (he was listed at 6-0 at the combine) will start at a 3-4 DE. There is not one 3-4 DE in the NFL who is even close too that short. He will be in the mix to spot Wilfork at NT and play in some of the passing situation sub packages.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

the problems against the pass are part of the problem

when you have guys like chad henne throwing at will, the defense tries to compensate .... which leaves it more prone to giving up the run....pretty simple, really

that and the fact that jarvis green was a liability against the run

 

[mgteich]

The open question is whether Pryor will make the 53 man squad. He is a 4-3 DT and backup NT. Would you rather have Lewis or Pryor in those roles? And besides, it is unlikely that we will not give Brace one more year as the developmental backup NT. He wasn't terrible when he played NT late last year.
======================================
Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Warren, Lewis, Brace
======================================
We carried six last year, plus a so-called pass-rushing DE (Burgess). I count the Burgess role with the linebackers, so we had six last DL's last year.

SHOULD WE KEEP SEVEN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN THIS YEAR?
This is an open question. Obviously, Pryor has a reasonable shot to make the bottom of the roster. However, as I look at the six DL's that we are likely to keep (if healthy), I see a need for a developmental DE, not a developmental DT. If we don't have a developmental DE worthy of the 53, then I don't think that we should carry seven defensive linemen.

And I do agree with you that Pryor is not a DE, and will not make the squad as a backup DE.

The reality is that Bilichick has time to assess Pryor. He has given Pryor lots of reps in the 2009 preseason and in the season. Pryor had a decent season. Pryor will also have opportunities in this preseason. However, Belichick has seen fit to bring in TWO veteran defensive linmen. Pryor has to beat out one of them to make the 53 (or beat out Brace for the backup NT position). Such is the reality of roster arithmetic.

There is no way that Pryor at 6-1 (he was listed at 6-0 at the combine) will start at a 3-4 DE. There is not one 3-4 DE in the NFL who is even close too that short. He will be in the mix to spot Wilfork at NT and play in some of the passing situation sub packages.

 

[Sicilian]

The open question is whether Pryor will make the 53 man squad. He is a 4-3 DT and backup NT. Would you rather have Lewis or Pryor in those roles? And besides, it is unlikely that we will not give Brace one more year as the developmental backup NT. He wasn't terrible when he played NT late last year.
======================================
Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Warren, Lewis, Brace
======================================
We carried six last year, plus a so-called pass-rushing DE (Burgess). I count the Burgess role with the linebackers, so we had six last DL's last year.

SHOULD WE KEEP SEVEN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN THIS YEAR?
This is an open question. Obviously, Pryor has a reasonable shot to make the bottom of the roster. However, as I look at the six DL's that we are likely to keep (if healthy), I see a need for a developmental DE, not a developmental DT. If we don't have a developmental DE worthy of the 53, then I don't think that we should carry seven defensive linemen.

And I do agree with you that Pryor is not a DE, and will not make the squad as a backup DE.

The reality is that Bilichick has time to assess Pryor. He has given Pryor lots of reps in the 2009 preseason and in the season. Pryor had a decent season. Pryor will also have opportunities in this preseason. However, Belichick has seen fit to bring in TWO veteran defensive linmen. Pryor has to beat out one of them to make the 53 (or beat out Brace for the backup NT position). Such is the reality of roster arithmetic.

I can see Pryor beating out Warren, because from most accounts Warren isn't terribly stout against the run anyway, so Pryor could potentially be a better (though not ideal) backup DE. He probably doesn't have the inside track due to size, but it's possible.

I could also see us carrying 7 DLs and 1 fewer RB than last year, depending on what shakes down in camp.

 

[mgteich]

While I agree that we should carry 7 DL's this year, I don't think that the position should come from the offense. We whould be carrying a 3rd tight end.

I can see Pryor beating out Warren, because from most accounts Warren isn't terribly stout against the run anyway, so Pryor could potentially be a better (though not ideal) backup DE. He probably doesn't have the inside track due to size, but it's possible.

I could also see us carrying 7 DLs and 1 fewer RB than last year, depending on what shakes down in camp.

 

[Ring 6]

I think that there will be improvement inside. Lewis will improve us at DT. Spikes and McKenzie should be an improvement over Guyton, and Mayo is healthy. And yes, McCourty might help.

Outside I suspect that we are weaker. Green was better than any of his replacements against the run. And there hasn't been any improvement at OLB against the run.

Have to disagree wit you here. Green was awful against the run, and I don't know how we could be worse at OLB with Thomas gone.

I would describe last years run D as average. And that is not acceptable in our system. There is no doubt in my mind that our pass defense is better all things equal when we are playing strong run D.
I except improvement both because BB has a tendency to put focus on critical areas that underperformed and if the focus is on it there will be improvement and because we have upgraded the talent on the defense.

 

[Patriot 37]

The open question is whether Pryor will make the 53 man squad. He is a 4-3 DT and backup NT. Would you rather have Lewis or Pryor in those roles? And besides, it is unlikely that we will not give Brace one more year as the developmental backup NT. He wasn't terrible when he played NT late last year.
======================================
Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Warren, Lewis, Brace
======================================
We carried six last year, plus a so-called pass-rushing DE (Burgess). I count the Burgess role with the linebackers, so we had six last DL's last year.

SHOULD WE KEEP SEVEN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN THIS YEAR?
This is an open question. Obviously, Pryor has a reasonable shot to make the bottom of the roster. However, as I look at the six DL's that we are likely to keep (if healthy), I see a need for a developmental DE, not a developmental DT. If we don't have a developmental DE worthy of the 53, then I don't think that we should carry seven defensive linemen.

And I do agree with you that Pryor is not a DE, and will not make the squad as a backup DE.

The reality is that Bilichick has time to assess Pryor. He has given Pryor lots of reps in the 2009 preseason and in the season. Pryor had a decent season. Pryor will also have opportunities in this preseason. However, Belichick has seen fit to bring in TWO veteran defensive linmen. Pryor has to beat out one of them to make the 53 (or beat out Brace for the backup NT position). Such is the reality of roster arithmetic.

I think you're right they will keep 7 DLs this year and that Pryor is basically competing with Lewis for the "nickel package NT". He shown some talent so I think that if he doesn't make the 53 he could be traded for a late round pick at the end of training camp like LeKevin Smith was last year.