How much salary is Cassel actually worth to the Pats as a player?

[AzPatsFan]

You completely ducked the question. No surprise.

No I said exactly what is the Patriots Policy, direct from the owner Robert Kraft. If the QB position has only $100,000 to spend on the position, then its $100,000/annum. If its $50 million allocated to the QB position, then it is $50 million/annum. It is whatever Belichick thinks he can afford, for that position, in a given year. It can and does vary by year.

And it is NOT SOME ARBITRARY "REALISTIC" NUMBER from a Jr. GM. This year the Patriots have ALREADY allocated $29 million to the QB position, SO FAR. That can change, but that "it is what it IS...", to paraphrase a quote from somebody or other.

My unequivocal answer is exactly the same... $29 million, right now. Not $50 million. Is that definitive enough?

 

[Fencer]

No I said exactly what is the Patriots Policy, direct from the owner Robert Kraft. If the QB position has only $100,000 to spend on the position, then its $100,000/annum. If its $50 million allocated to the QB position, then it is $50 million/annum. It is whatever Belichick thinks he can afford, for that position, in a given year. It can and does vary by year.

And it is NOT SOME ARBITRARY "REALISTIC" NUMBER from a Jr. GM. This year the Patriots have ALREADY allocated $29 million to the QB position, SO FAR. That can change, but that "it is what it IS...", to paraphrase a quote from somebody or other.

My unequivocal answer is exactly the same... $29 million. Not $50 million. Is that definitive enough?

No. To begin with, you're thoroughly mistaken. The Patriots aren't trying to pay "fair" value; they're trying to get players at bargains. And there's no reason to assume the Patriots plan to pay Cassell the money they're currently on the hook for, at least not as their base case.

Second, I don't believe you're really so stupid as to believe what you're posting in this thread. Instead, you're just sabotaging it by putting words up that are a long-winded way of saying you don't want to think about the question I raised.

Now, it's perfectly fine to have nothing to say about some particular question a stranger raises on a message board. But to paraphrase Tom Lehrer -- if you have nothing to say, why don't you just shut up about it?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Quite wrong.

By "true value to the Pats" I meant "cost to the Pats in salary cap dollars of similarly enhancing their probability of winning games and champions through other players". It has NOTHING to do with Cassell's market value.

There are at least three relevant numbers here:

A. What another team would be willing to pay Cassell.
B. The $14 million that Cassell is assured of receiving if no further transactions occur.
C. Cassell's true value to the Patriots (which, unless Brady is known to be out for the season, is a LOT less than $14 million).

The comparison between A and B is complicated a lot by considerations of single-year vs. multi-year deals. However, the comparison between B and C is pretty much apples-to-apples.

I grant what you say. which is more or less tautological.

My only point is that there is no practical import to your question, which, nonetheless, does not invalidate it as a question.

My answer to your (interesting) question is that Cassell's "true value to the Patriots," as you define it, is irrelevant, if it is even possible to be calculated so as to gain consensus approval from a group of reasonable and well-informed observers. There can be no "negotiation" wherein a "threat point," as valid (and complex) as it would be if properly applied in Game Theory, would come into play in this case, given the exogenous circumstances of the CBA and the Tag.

Cassel's worth is what he can receive in the market.

I've already defended you in this thread, BTW, by stating that this is an interesting hypothetical issue. All I've argued is that it is purely theoretical, given the CBA and tag.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

I get it. You don't like the premise of this thread. I'm sorry for wasting all those pixels of yours.

You obviously didn't get anything, because I was being funny.

Sensitive much???

 

[Fencer]

Thank you for your open mind ...

There can be no "negotiation" wherein a "threat point," as valid (and complex) as it would be if properly applied in Game Theory, would come into play in this case, given the exogenous circumstances of the CBA and the Tag.

... but that part is largely incorrect. It's precisely the exogeneous constraints that make the negotiation interesting to analyze.

I once asked for and received -- but did not follow up on -- tentative permission to take the HBS negotiation course materials and teach them at another university. A B-school case on this multi-player negotiation would have fit right in.

Hmm. Actually, no. One of the most interesting factors is that it's unknown which teams truly are or aren't interested in Cassel. I don't immediately see how to roleplay that without leaving some of the students (those portraying unintersted teams) with nothing to do. Nice idea while it lasted ... but I digress.

Anyhow, whether BB sees keeping Cassel as a $6 million loss or a $10 million loss DOES affect how willing he is to play "chicken" in negotiations. Ditto, where other teams think he values Cassel affects their expectations of how far they can push him.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The best approximation of Cassel's value is found using String Theory.

A combination of quantum mattchanics and general Casselativity which results in a quantum Mattheory of Casselivity.

Also the calculation Patriots= Matt Cassel squared is usefull.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thank you for your open mind ...

... but that part is largely incorrect. It's precisely the exogeneous constraints that make the negotiation interesting to analyze.

I once asked for and received -- but did not follow up on -- tentative permission to take the HBS negotiation course materials and teach them at another university. A B-school case on this multi-player negotiation would have fit right in.

Hmm. Actually, no. One of the most interesting factors is that it's unknown which teams truly are or aren't interested in Cassel. I don't immediately see how to roleplay that without leaving some of the students (those portraying unintersted teams) with nothing to do. Nice idea while it lasted ... but I digress.

Anyhow, whether BB sees keeping Cassel as a $6 million loss or a $10 million loss DOES affect how willing he is to play "chicken" in negotiations. Ditto, where other teams think he values Cassel affects their expectations of how far they can push him.

I'm pretty well done with this. We disagree.

Just curious though. Which course was that? First year or Second Year? There were negotiation modules in a lot of courses when I was there, but which course are you referring to?

 

[Frezo]

It all hinges on Belinomics. At some point Cassel's trade value equals the value he would have on the Pat's roster. It's not a fixed point and changes relative to Brady's health, the combine, buzz around the league, etc. According to Belinomics a concurrence of events will take place where any decision becomes obvious and action must be taken. Any delay will lead to diminishing returns. IMO the action will be trade.

 

[Fencer]

I'm pretty well done with this. We disagree.

Just curious though. Which course was that? First year or Second Year? There were negotiation modules in a lot of courses when I was there, but which course are you referring to?

It was whatever Elon Kohlberg taught in 1980-81. But the guy I talked to about it was Howard Raiffa, notwithstanding that Elon was my de facto thesis advisor.

If you know both Elon and Howard, that probably makes reasonable sense to you ...

In those days, the idea of a whole course on negotiation was still somewhat innovative.

 

[Fencer]

The best approximation of Cassel's value is found using String Theory.

A combination of quantum mattchanics and general Casselativity which results in a quantum Mattheory of Casselivity.

Also the calculation Patriots= Matt Cassel squared is usefull.

My wife, who's quite the basketball fan, looks askance at me even so for also liking football -- both because of the violence and because of what she perceives as the brainless or at least anti-intellectual nature of many of its fans.

I'm beginning to see her point on both counts ...

 

[Fencer]

It all hinges on Belinomics. At some point Cassel's trade value equals the value he would have on the Pat's roster. It's not a fixed point and changes relative to Brady's health, the combine, buzz around the league, etc. According to Belinomics a concurrence of events will take place where any decision becomes obvious and action must be taken. Any delay will lead to diminishing returns. IMO the action will be trade.

My point is that Cassel's playing value to the Pats hinges on fewer factors (mainly, Brady's health). It is indeed close to a fixed point.

His trade value is of course much more in flux.

 

[Frezo]

My point is that Cassel's playing value to the Pats hinges on fewer factors (mainly, Brady's health). It is indeed close to a fixed point.

His trade value is of course much more in flux.

Agreed

At a point, the trade offer, 2 first rounders for example, influences the perceived state of Brady's health and lessens its impact on the decision. That's known as The Yankees Factor.

 

[mgcolby]

My wife, who's quite the basketball fan, looks askance at me even so for also liking football -- both because of the violence and because of what she perceives as the brainless or at least anti-intellectual nature of many of its fans.

I'm beginning to see her point on both counts ...

Well maybe some day you and her can enlighten us all!!!

Oh to rise to your superior intellectual level....

Well at least I now know why you didn't get my sarcasm earlier in the thread.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It was whatever Elon Kohlberg taught in 1980-81. But the guy I talked to about it was Howard Raiffa, notwithstanding that Elon was my de facto thesis advisor.

If you know both Elon and Howard, that probably makes reasonable sense to you ...

In those days, the idea of a whole course on negotiation was still somewhat innovative.

They're both well-known. I'm more familiar with Raiffa's work since it applies more practically to business decisons; Kohlberg is a brilliant theoretician. Which would bring me back to my basic point; in this case, there is a market that sets Matt's value. The rest is interesting but theorteical.

(BTW: You don't need permission to use B-school materials in other venues as long as materials are used in accord with copyright and IP protocols.)

 

[Fencer]

(BTW: You don't need permission to use B-school materials in other venues as long as materials are used in accord with copyright and IP protocols.)

You do if you want the instructor's own lecture notes.

Howard's self-image, very justifiably, was and I would guess always remained centered around being a course creator. He created a lot of the first-year B-School curriculum, and much of the basic Kennedy School curriculum as well. He never taught a course more than twice in a row, so that he could create new ones. I once challenged him as to whether the decision theorists had ever accomplished much, and he rattled off stats about how many people had been educated in the classroom or by book.

He's one of the two greatest educators I've ever known.