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How much salary is Cassel actually worth to the Pats as a player?

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  1. Fencer

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    Underlying any other consideration of the Pats' negotiating position is this -- how many $ is Cassell worth to the Pats as a player?

    Here's how I see it:

    Case 1: Brady is out for the season (again). Then Cassell is the only player who could step into Brady's place and be a Really Good Starter. Based on how he performed in the latter part of the season, the value of that is somewhere around the true franchise tag amount.

    Yes, I know it's high, but Cassell uniquely has knowledge of the Patriot system.

    Case 2: Brady is healthy. Then the main value of a backup QB is as an insurance policy. What's the probability of a previously durable 30-something QB coming off an injury going down again? 20%? Cassell's value in this scenario is a few million dollars.

    Case 3: Brady starts the season impaired. Then Cassell's value is somewhere inbetween.

    Put numbers and probabilities on all three scenarios, and you have an expected value. E.g., if you think the probabilities are 10-60-30% (which is more optimistic for Brady than Tomase might put them at), and the numbers are $15-3-8 million, then that works out to a $5.7 million dollar value for Cassell the player in 2009. Shift the probabilities to 20-30-50%, and his value goes up to $7.9 million.

    In any case, unless Brady is expected to be out -- in which case trade talks are moot anyway -- Cassell's value to the Pats is a lot less than $14 million, so everybody knows they have an incentive to make a deal happen.
  2. ctpatsfan77

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    First: Cassel. :)

    Second: You're assuming that the only way Cassel does/can stay is on a one-year deal. I would argue that, if it came to it, the Patriots would try to get Cassel to resign to a longer deal (2-3 years) to minimize the 2009 cap hit.
  3. Metaphors

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Also, you are just looking at Cassel's salary for 2009 at $15M. Remember he played as the #2 for a year+ and a starter for a year...making around $1-2M total over that time. Entirely justified since he was a 7th round pick on a rookie deal, but he clearly out-performed that deal.

    So think of the $15M as a $7M cap hit for 2009 plus an $8M bonus for the work he has done for the last couple years. Not optimal since the Pats really need to extend Wilfork. (Seriously. Do it now. I'll wait.) But as a business decision it is certainly not unreasonable.

    As CTPF said, I would expect them to sign Cassel to a more cap friendly deal if they intend to keep him. I don't think that will happen, but there are clearly more factors in play than just the $15M tag cost.
  4. j00fek

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    the early tag means more time to get a deal done with min,det,kc,chi,sf
  5. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Oops.

    My question is valid without that assumption.

    OK, then -- how much is he worth per year?
  6. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Because BB is so sentimental?
  7. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    cassel is worth the minimum to the pats in terms of salary........but he is worth at least a 1st and a 3rd round pick in a trade

    cassel is already gone
  8. WhiZa

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Can they trade him now or have to wait for some date to pass? I would have thought they would have a deal in place before putting the tag on. Because if they can't deal him it's a huge hit to the cap. I'm guessing they must have some sort of agreement made, but they are just working out how many picks it's going to be.
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  9. Metaphors

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    No. As my post said I don't think the Pats would pay $15M to Cassel as plan A. It seems clear they will be looking to get good value in a trade. If that doesn't happen and they decide to keep Cassel, they will likely try to work out a more cap friendly deal (eating a bonus as dead money in the future).

    If none of that works out and they end up keeping Cassel at the tag value, my point was that a 1-year $15M deal could be justified from a business perspective because Cassel has played on the cheap for 4 years.

    Taking care of an employee that has greatly outperformed their salary over several years isn't being "sentimental". It shows loyalty and fairness for the folks getting it done between the lines and demonstrating that their job is important to them.

    Plan A: Trade Cassel early in the Free Agency period
    Plan B: Sign Cassel to a deal that effectively translates to 1-year at $15M (maybe a $20M option bonus due March 1 next year). Still look for a trade.
    Plan C: Keep Cassel at $15M tender or release Cassel and take 3rd round comp pick in 2010 (depending on other contract needs)

    I don't think they get to plan C so the point is likely moot. In the unlikely event that Cassel plays for the tag value, he is obviously not a $15M QB...but he has certainly earned a bonus for his play the last couple of years.
  10. tanked_as_usual

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    if there wasn't something already in the works, cassel would have been waiting to sign the tender the moment it was given.....I think everyone will play nice in this one.....at least for now
  11. Metaphors

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Cassel is still a Patriot under terms of his rookie deal for the next couple of weeks. He can't be traded until the new league year starts because the trade deadline for 2008 has passed.

    Technically no team can discuss contract terms with Cassel until he officially becomes a free agent when the new league year begins, but we all know that it happens anyway. While the Patriots may have a deal in place, I would think it is unlikely since most teams are still early in team building. I wouldn't expect anything serious until after the combine.
  12. ctpatsfan77

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    It's almost certain that the Patriots also gave Cassel permission to talk to other teams, because, otherwise, what's the point of franchising him before the 19th?
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  13. ctpatsfan77

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    I'll be honest, I have no earthly idea at the moment.
  14. Metaphors

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    But the Pats could have given him permission to talk to other teams at any time over the last 4 years. Tagging him gave them no more or less ownership of his rights until the free agency period begins. They could have just told Cassel they were going to tag him and still kept their options open until the deadline.

    I believe tagging him immediately was done to send a signal to teams of the value the Pats place on Cassel. Not tagging him would leave teams wondering about the possibility of Cassel making it to free agency without the tag...which could place some doubt about his value in lieu of the Pats potentially letting him walk for a comp pick.
  15. Synovia

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Thats not even close to the realm of possibility. If any team in the NFL values Cassel at atleast a 7th round pick, the Pats can get that salary off the books.
  16. WhiZa

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    7th round pick + some multi-million dollar contract. If Cassel plays hardball and doesn't want to negotiate a long term contract then the Pats will be forced to cut him (not sure if that's possible) or spend the 14mil.
  17. tanked_as_usual

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    they can remove the tag prior to 7/15 as long as cassel does not sign it
  18. mgcolby

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Lets see he is traded for a 1st and 3rd.

    So by my estimation:

    (1st round Signing Bonus + Salary) + (3rd round Signing Bonus + Salary) = Cassel's worth/salary
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  19. Fencer

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    When have the Patriots done that to nearly the same magnitude in the past?

    I don't think they'd find spending such a large fraction of their salary cap as a "Thank you" to somebody to be good business.
  20. Fencer

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    If Cassell signs the tender, the Pats are on the hook for a lot more than he is worth, as a player, to them.

    That's part of the negotiation.

    Obviously, they wouldn't have tagged him unless they thought that it wasn't to his advantage to sign the tender either, or else unless they wildly disagreed with my estimates as to his worth to them as a player.
  21. Fencer

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    I get it. You don't like the premise of this thread. I'm sorry for wasting all those pixels of yours.
  22. Metaphors

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    You keep cherry-picking parts of my posts. I've repeatedly said that the Pats certainly DON'T...DO NOT...NEGATORY...want to pay Cassel $15M to be a backup/insurance policy. If their better options don't pan out (trade, cap-friendly deal), the Pats have to eat the contract. That is assuming Cassel signs the tender and it would be a huge gamble not to.

    If it gets to that point (and I don't think it will), it doesn't mean that Cassel is valued as a $15M QB by the Pats. It means they played the game and lost. In that case, the risk would have been worth it since they got playoff-caliber QB play in 2008 for a half mill instead of signing a vet to a multi-million dollar deal. That bill comes due in 2009.

    Cassel played well and that makes him a valuable asset...and assets have a price to keep and hold. If the Pats were looking to acquire Cassel, would they value him at a guaranteed $15M for one year? No way. Would they value him at anything above what Cassel would consider an insult? Probably not. He is a short-term bridge until O'Connell is ready as the #2.

    Cassel as a football player is worth significantly less to the Pats than Cassel as an asset. Is Cassel worth risking a $15M guaranteed one-year deal on the chance they could get significant value in trading him? Yepper. That is good business and they are doing it in a way that ensures Cassel is set for life, which seems fair given Cassel's development on and off the field.
  23. Fencer

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Well, my original post offers clues. ;)
  24. PatsFanSince74

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    Interesting, but hypothetical, of course, for two reasons.

    One, it isn't going to happen that way; he's either going to stay with the Pats under the tag or be traded.

    Two, it leaves out the reality of the marketplace if Matt wasn't under the tag. Any employer can assess an employee's value six ways to Sunday, but in the end the value is determined by the market, or lack thereof, for his/her skills.
  25. AzPatsFan

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    Wrong question, so wrong answer. :rolleyes:

    Right question: What is the value and cost of a Lombardi Trophy?

    Kraft has answered it and said it is "... to spend up the amount the league allows per year and not more. And remain competitive every year". So let them spend it.

    Having an "insurance policy" for the most important position on a football team, for a legitimate Super Bowl FAVORITE, by Las Vegas, makes pure sense to me.:cool::D
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2009
  26. crowell33

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  27. PatsFanSince74

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    I've already said in another post why this is purely a hypothetical exercise. What the OP is asking, as far as I can tell, is how would one determine Cassel's theoretical value, absent a market that, in the real world, actually does determine that value (even the tag is based on a market basket of contemporary salaries at any given position). As far as I can see, that's a fair question to ask. It might not be particularly useful or have any practical implications whatsoever, but it's an interesting way to think about the salary subject in February, between the SB, Combines and Draft Day.

    You raise another interesting question.

    What is a Lombardi Trophy worth? I wonder if anyone has ever put a monetary value on a SB victory.

    Teams get the bulk of their revenues from Broadcast rights, based on a contract that doesn't care whether a team is 16--0 or 0--16. The Steelers will get the same amount under the contract next year as they would have had they not gotten near to Tampa. There might be an uptick in Season Ticket sales among teams that are not already sold out (it would be interesting to see what happens in Arizona after the SB run), but I doubt that is that great. There might be an increase in promotional and ancillary sales, but that also is probably not that great.

    The only real way to measure this would be in the increase in a Franchise's value after winning an SB. Anecdotally, the Patriots' franchise value has trebled or quadrupled since the Krafts bought the team. It would be an interesting Valuation exercise to try to attribute a portion of this increase to SB wins and not just to the overal inflation of all franchises due to the sport's popularity and mega Broadcast Contracts. I do, however, suspect that is real, but, since there is no public market for nearly all NFL teams, it's difficult to quantify beyond the annual Forbes stab at it.

    If I look at the top five Franchises by Franchise Value and the last three SB Winners on the most recent Forbes list that I have (I doubt it changes that much and there are clearly other factors at play here, including Real Estate and Stadium values, but it's the best we've got before deeper analysis) and compare it to SB wins, this is what you see:

    1) Redskins, Total SB Wins 3, last win 1991 season
    2) Patriots, Total SB Wins 3, last win 2004
    3) Cowboys, Total SB Wins 5, last win 1995
    4) Texans, Total SB Wins 0, last win never
    5) Eagles, Total SB wins 0, last win never

    15) Giants, Total SB wins 3, last win 2007
    18) Steelers, Total SB wins 6, last win 2008
    22) Colts, Total SB wins 2, last win 2006

    One can't just argue that a Lombardi is "priceless" and therefore worth any reasonable price to obtain one. Otherwise, owners would behave differently than they actually do. Clearly, teams take different views of this.

    Some spend and manage themselves consistently to be competitive for the Playoffs year in and year out, like the Pats and Steelers and Cowboys and Colts and several others. The very fact that Bob Kraft feels the need to state that objective suggests that it is not a universally shared objective among NFL owners. Otherwise, saying that "We want our team to be highly competitive for the Playoffs year after year" would be the same as saying "Our team is going to play football."

    Other teams, like the Vikings, Cards (until this year), Chiefs (in recent years during Mr. Hunt's illness) and others, seem to go for extended periods without particularly caring about the quality of the team that they field. They are content to field a respectable team but don't seem particularly driven to get to the Playoffs, let alone the SB. The Broadcast, Gate and Ancillary revenues seem to be enough for them year in and year out as an annuity without a lot of investment.
  28. Fencer

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    You and other folks are misunderstanding me. Perhaps I should have included more steps to the line of reasoning.

    1. The Pats, Cassel, and hopefully one or more other teams are or will be in a multi-way negotiation.

    2. The outcome of a negotiation is heavily influenced by the consequences to each party of failure.

    3. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) to assess what the consequences to the Pats of failure are.

    4. Failure involves Cassel staying for a known amount of money ($14 million+). The magnitude of the failure is the excess of that amount over his true value to the Pats.

    5. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) what his true value to the Pats is.
  29. Fencer

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    So you think ANY amount of money paid to Cassel -- as opposed to being paid to other players -- is money well spent? Would you think it is a good decision to pay him $50 million next year?

    If not, what's the largest amount you do think it is a good decision to pay him?
  30. Fencer

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    OK. Maybe you did understand me somewhat. :)

    But my not entirely amateur view of negotiations is that it's a very relevant question to ask. The term for it, in negotiation theory, is "threat point."
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