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How much salary is Cassel actually worth to the Pats as a player?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Feb 5, 2009.

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  1. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Underlying any other consideration of the Pats' negotiating position is this -- how many $ is Cassell worth to the Pats as a player?

    Here's how I see it:

    Case 1: Brady is out for the season (again). Then Cassell is the only player who could step into Brady's place and be a Really Good Starter. Based on how he performed in the latter part of the season, the value of that is somewhere around the true franchise tag amount.

    Yes, I know it's high, but Cassell uniquely has knowledge of the Patriot system.

    Case 2: Brady is healthy. Then the main value of a backup QB is as an insurance policy. What's the probability of a previously durable 30-something QB coming off an injury going down again? 20%? Cassell's value in this scenario is a few million dollars.

    Case 3: Brady starts the season impaired. Then Cassell's value is somewhere inbetween.

    Put numbers and probabilities on all three scenarios, and you have an expected value. E.g., if you think the probabilities are 10-60-30% (which is more optimistic for Brady than Tomase might put them at), and the numbers are $15-3-8 million, then that works out to a $5.7 million dollar value for Cassell the player in 2009. Shift the probabilities to 20-30-50%, and his value goes up to $7.9 million.

    In any case, unless Brady is expected to be out -- in which case trade talks are moot anyway -- Cassell's value to the Pats is a lot less than $14 million, so everybody knows they have an incentive to make a deal happen.
  2. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    First: Cassel. :)

    Second: You're assuming that the only way Cassel does/can stay is on a one-year deal. I would argue that, if it came to it, the Patriots would try to get Cassel to resign to a longer deal (2-3 years) to minimize the 2009 cap hit.
  3. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Also, you are just looking at Cassel's salary for 2009 at $15M. Remember he played as the #2 for a year+ and a starter for a year...making around $1-2M total over that time. Entirely justified since he was a 7th round pick on a rookie deal, but he clearly out-performed that deal.

    So think of the $15M as a $7M cap hit for 2009 plus an $8M bonus for the work he has done for the last couple years. Not optimal since the Pats really need to extend Wilfork. (Seriously. Do it now. I'll wait.) But as a business decision it is certainly not unreasonable.

    As CTPF said, I would expect them to sign Cassel to a more cap friendly deal if they intend to keep him. I don't think that will happen, but there are clearly more factors in play than just the $15M tag cost.
  4. j00fek

    j00fek Banned

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    the early tag means more time to get a deal done with min,det,kc,chi,sf
  5. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Oops.

    My question is valid without that assumption.

    OK, then -- how much is he worth per year?
  6. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Because BB is so sentimental?
  7. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    cassel is worth the minimum to the pats in terms of salary........but he is worth at least a 1st and a 3rd round pick in a trade

    cassel is already gone
  8. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Can they trade him now or have to wait for some date to pass? I would have thought they would have a deal in place before putting the tag on. Because if they can't deal him it's a huge hit to the cap. I'm guessing they must have some sort of agreement made, but they are just working out how many picks it's going to be.
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  9. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    No. As my post said I don't think the Pats would pay $15M to Cassel as plan A. It seems clear they will be looking to get good value in a trade. If that doesn't happen and they decide to keep Cassel, they will likely try to work out a more cap friendly deal (eating a bonus as dead money in the future).

    If none of that works out and they end up keeping Cassel at the tag value, my point was that a 1-year $15M deal could be justified from a business perspective because Cassel has played on the cheap for 4 years.

    Taking care of an employee that has greatly outperformed their salary over several years isn't being "sentimental". It shows loyalty and fairness for the folks getting it done between the lines and demonstrating that their job is important to them.

    Plan A: Trade Cassel early in the Free Agency period
    Plan B: Sign Cassel to a deal that effectively translates to 1-year at $15M (maybe a $20M option bonus due March 1 next year). Still look for a trade.
    Plan C: Keep Cassel at $15M tender or release Cassel and take 3rd round comp pick in 2010 (depending on other contract needs)

    I don't think they get to plan C so the point is likely moot. In the unlikely event that Cassel plays for the tag value, he is obviously not a $15M QB...but he has certainly earned a bonus for his play the last couple of years.
  10. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    if there wasn't something already in the works, cassel would have been waiting to sign the tender the moment it was given.....I think everyone will play nice in this one.....at least for now
  11. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Cassel is still a Patriot under terms of his rookie deal for the next couple of weeks. He can't be traded until the new league year starts because the trade deadline for 2008 has passed.

    Technically no team can discuss contract terms with Cassel until he officially becomes a free agent when the new league year begins, but we all know that it happens anyway. While the Patriots may have a deal in place, I would think it is unlikely since most teams are still early in team building. I wouldn't expect anything serious until after the combine.
  12. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    It's almost certain that the Patriots also gave Cassel permission to talk to other teams, because, otherwise, what's the point of franchising him before the 19th?
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  13. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    I'll be honest, I have no earthly idea at the moment.
  14. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    But the Pats could have given him permission to talk to other teams at any time over the last 4 years. Tagging him gave them no more or less ownership of his rights until the free agency period begins. They could have just told Cassel they were going to tag him and still kept their options open until the deadline.

    I believe tagging him immediately was done to send a signal to teams of the value the Pats place on Cassel. Not tagging him would leave teams wondering about the possibility of Cassel making it to free agency without the tag...which could place some doubt about his value in lieu of the Pats potentially letting him walk for a comp pick.
  15. Synovia

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Thats not even close to the realm of possibility. If any team in the NFL values Cassel at atleast a 7th round pick, the Pats can get that salary off the books.
  16. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    7th round pick + some multi-million dollar contract. If Cassel plays hardball and doesn't want to negotiate a long term contract then the Pats will be forced to cut him (not sure if that's possible) or spend the 14mil.
  17. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    they can remove the tag prior to 7/15 as long as cassel does not sign it
  18. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    Lets see he is traded for a 1st and 3rd.

    So by my estimation:

    (1st round Signing Bonus + Salary) + (3rd round Signing Bonus + Salary) = Cassel's worth/salary
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2009
  19. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    When have the Patriots done that to nearly the same magnitude in the past?

    I don't think they'd find spending such a large fraction of their salary cap as a "Thank you" to somebody to be good business.
  20. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

    If Cassell signs the tender, the Pats are on the hook for a lot more than he is worth, as a player, to them.

    That's part of the negotiation.

    Obviously, they wouldn't have tagged him unless they thought that it wasn't to his advantage to sign the tender either, or else unless they wildly disagreed with my estimates as to his worth to them as a player.
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