Thanks for all the great comments and insights everyone, and the generous reception to this early effort. I understand that my initial projections were likely overly optimistic - they were part realistic, part wishful thinking, and mostly intended to stimulate discussion about needs and options.
Clearly we won't be able to afford everything I originally listed. I made an error in listing Owen Daniels as a UFA instead of an RFA, and have removed him. We already have a very strong team, and we will probably retain some of the "JAG" players whom I listed as potential cuts, though I believe roster competition will be intense this summer.
The following seem to be some concensus/compromise positions:
- QB: Franchise and trade Cassel for a 2009 first around 19-22 plus a conditional 2010 pick seems reasonable. QB with Brady/O'Connell and either Gut or a low-budget veteran QB signing seems ok with most people.
- RB: Maroney, Morris and Faulk seem pretty set at RB for 2009. Resigning Heath Evans at reasonable $$ seems a concensus winner. Keeping LaMont Jordan would be nice, but will likely cost too much, and a second day RB such as Devin Moore would not be unreasonable.
- WR: Moss and Welker are set. Resigning Gaffney at reasonable $$ seems a good thing. Washington is cheap and a good STer, unless we can pick up a better option cheaply in FA. Signing a second day WR prospect such as Jarrett Dillard or Brian Robiskie seems like a good thing.
- TE: We are probably set for 2009 with Watson, Thomas and DeVries. Watson and Thomas are FAs after 2009, so this is a future area to address. Some like the idea of Bear Pascoe as a late round pick.
- OT: Most people seem more comfortable with Light-Kaczur-LeVoir-Britt/O'Callaghan than I was in my original projection, and feel that a major FA signing such as Jordan Gross is unrealistic. I'd still like to see this position upgraded, either through FA or the draft.
- OG/C: Most would like to see some additional depth here with Mankins a FA in 2009 and Neal aging. The idea of Kaczur covering RG is controversial. A 2nd round or later pick in this area would not be unreasonable.
- DT: Extending Vince is critical in this area. Resigning Wright is also important. A true NT backup would be nice.
- DL: If Wright resigns, then Seymour-Warren-Green- Wright is fine for 2009, especially if Green restructures to lower his cap hit. Canty might be a Seymour replacement option but is likely too expensive for a Wright/Green replacement.
- OLB: There is some disagreement about how much Vrabel has left in the tank, and how much this is a position of need. At least 1 first day LB pick does not seem too controversial, and a lot of people like the Kruger and Barwin picks.
- ILB: Similar disagreement to OLB, but not as much objection to drafting 2 LBs as I had anticipated.
- S: Must be rebuilt through FA and/or the draft. Signing both Sanders and possibly Sean Jones as a FA would work, as would signing 2/3 of the above and drafting a S such as William Moore, Sean Smith, or a later round pick.
- CB: Need to add playmakers. Hobbs is ok, Wheatley and Wilhite have promise but are unproven. One mid-range FA signee such as Jabari Greer and possibly a high draft pick here seem to be the concensus.
- ST: Upgrading P seems to be ok with most people. I didn't get as much feedback on whether or not to keep Izzo as I had expected.
With this in mind, how about the following modifications:
- Franchise Cassell and trade to TB/Detroit/Minnesota for a first round pick (1/19, 20 or 22) + a conditional 2nd round pick
- Resign James Sanders S, Lewis Sanders S, Pierre Woods LB, Mike Wright DE/DT, and Jabar Gaffney WR, all to fairly reasonable contracts.
- Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (or a comparable mid-level CB) and UFA S Sean Jones (Cleveland).
- Restructure Jarvis Green (DE), and possibly Mike Vrabel (OLB) and Stephen Neal (OG) to free up some cap room.
- Draft:
1(19-22): DJ Moore, CB, Vanderbilt. Can return punts and also play WR for versatility.
1(23 or slight trade back): Paul Kruger, DE/OLB, Utah
2(47): Connor Barwin, DE/LB, Cincinnati
2(57 or moderate trade up if we trade back in 1st): William Beatty, OT, Connecticut. 6'6, 310#, has been effective in the Big East against top talent and shows good footwork and athletic ability. Could eventually replace Light as franchise LT.
3(86) Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming.
3(97) Jarrett Dillard (Rice) or Brian Robiskie (Ohio State), WR
4(122) Ken Huber, P, Cincinnati
4(comp) Karl Urbik (Wisconsin) or Trevor Canfield (Cincinnati) OG. I'm open to other reasonable guard suggestions here.
Any more realistic?