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Mock Offseason FA and Draft as of January 15


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Nice Post

Well thought out and could see some of the strategies working.

I do like Gross but Pats have been hesitant to bring in High Dollar FA on O-Line but
I think we need upgrade.

I agree with draft by position order but have yet to target college targets for CB/safety and Linebacker.

I was wondering if we could get a proven starting cb for Cassell. Trade to San Fran for Clements with the big portion of contract already paid.

We need playmakers in Secondary I like the young guys but we need a vet leader back there particularly if rodney is done?!?
 
Well thought out and could see some of the strategies working.

I do like Gross but Pats have been hesitant to bring in High Dollar FA on O-Line but
I think we need upgrade.

I agree with draft by position order but have yet to target college targets for CB/safety and Linebacker.

I was wondering if we could get a proven starting cb for Cassell. Trade to San Fran for Clements with the big portion of contract already paid.

We need playmakers in Secondary I like the young guys but we need a vet leader back there particularly if rodney is done?!?

I agree, I want palymakers in the secondary.
 
I love these, and agree with a lot.
I completely agree with the priorities, and the targets.

As these often are, this is very optimistic.

I can't see a way under the cap to sign Greer (who I put at the top of my list of free agents to target on another thread here), Gross, Daniels, Wright, and a safety (Sanders or other).

I continue to see Greer, or another similar-level CB (below Asomugha/Dunta Robinson, but a strong #1 CB; Finnegan is another possibility but he may be too expensive now) as the top FA target. However, if the Pats sign a top CB, have Hobbs, plus Wheatley & Wilhite, I'm not sure they would still want to go CB in the first round. Safety or OLB.

I like the draft, and hope that things would fall like that, but again it's probably optimistic.

The Pats need a new #1 CB, young pass-rushing OLB, safety, and RT.
This solves all those problems well.
Probably above the cap, but provides a great blueprint.
 
Thanks for all the great comments and insights everyone, and the generous reception to this early effort. I understand that my initial projections were likely overly optimistic - they were part realistic, part wishful thinking, and mostly intended to stimulate discussion about needs and options.

Clearly we won't be able to afford everything I originally listed. I made an error in listing Owen Daniels as a UFA instead of an RFA, and have removed him. We already have a very strong team, and we will probably retain some of the "JAG" players whom I listed as potential cuts, though I believe roster competition will be intense this summer.

The following seem to be some concensus/compromise positions:

- QB: Franchise and trade Cassel for a 2009 first around 19-22 plus a conditional 2010 pick seems reasonable. QB with Brady/O'Connell and either Gut or a low-budget veteran QB signing seems ok with most people.
- RB: Maroney, Morris and Faulk seem pretty set at RB for 2009. Resigning Heath Evans at reasonable $$ seems a concensus winner. Keeping LaMont Jordan would be nice, but will likely cost too much, and a second day RB such as Devin Moore would not be unreasonable.
- WR: Moss and Welker are set. Resigning Gaffney at reasonable $$ seems a good thing. Washington is cheap and a good STer, unless we can pick up a better option cheaply in FA. Signing a second day WR prospect such as Jarrett Dillard or Brian Robiskie seems like a good thing.
- TE: We are probably set for 2009 with Watson, Thomas and DeVries. Watson and Thomas are FAs after 2009, so this is a future area to address. Some like the idea of Bear Pascoe as a late round pick.
- OT: Most people seem more comfortable with Light-Kaczur-LeVoir-Britt/O'Callaghan than I was in my original projection, and feel that a major FA signing such as Jordan Gross is unrealistic. I'd still like to see this position upgraded, either through FA or the draft.
- OG/C: Most would like to see some additional depth here with Mankins a FA in 2009 and Neal aging. The idea of Kaczur covering RG is controversial. A 2nd round or later pick in this area would not be unreasonable.
- DT: Extending Vince is critical in this area. Resigning Wright is also important. A true NT backup would be nice.
- DL: If Wright resigns, then Seymour-Warren-Green- Wright is fine for 2009, especially if Green restructures to lower his cap hit. Canty might be a Seymour replacement option but is likely too expensive for a Wright/Green replacement.
- OLB: There is some disagreement about how much Vrabel has left in the tank, and how much this is a position of need. At least 1 first day LB pick does not seem too controversial, and a lot of people like the Kruger and Barwin picks.
- ILB: Similar disagreement to OLB, but not as much objection to drafting 2 LBs as I had anticipated.
- S: Must be rebuilt through FA and/or the draft. Signing both Sanders and possibly Sean Jones as a FA would work, as would signing 2/3 of the above and drafting a S such as William Moore, Sean Smith, or a later round pick.
- CB: Need to add playmakers. Hobbs is ok, Wheatley and Wilhite have promise but are unproven. One mid-range FA signee such as Jabari Greer and possibly a high draft pick here seem to be the concensus.
- ST: Upgrading P seems to be ok with most people. I didn't get as much feedback on whether or not to keep Izzo as I had expected.

With this in mind, how about the following modifications:

- Franchise Cassell and trade to TB/Detroit/Minnesota for a first round pick (1/19, 20 or 22) + a conditional 2nd round pick
- Resign James Sanders S, Lewis Sanders S, Pierre Woods LB, Mike Wright DE/DT, and Jabar Gaffney WR, all to fairly reasonable contracts.
- Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (or a comparable mid-level CB) and UFA S Sean Jones (Cleveland).
- Restructure Jarvis Green (DE), and possibly Mike Vrabel (OLB) and Stephen Neal (OG) to free up some cap room.
- Draft:
1(19-22): DJ Moore, CB, Vanderbilt. Can return punts and also play WR for versatility.
1(23 or slight trade back): Paul Kruger, DE/OLB, Utah
2(47): Connor Barwin, DE/LB, Cincinnati
2(57 or moderate trade up if we trade back in 1st): William Beatty, OT, Connecticut. 6'6, 310#, has been effective in the Big East against top talent and shows good footwork and athletic ability. Could eventually replace Light as franchise LT.
3(86) Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming.
3(97) Jarrett Dillard (Rice) or Brian Robiskie (Ohio State), WR
4(122) Ken Huber, P, Cincinnati
4(comp) Karl Urbik (Wisconsin) or Trevor Canfield (Cincinnati) OG. I'm open to other reasonable guard suggestions here.

Any more realistic?
 
You seem to hit all the positions that need help this April. I hope that happens, especially taking three defenders with the first three picks. :cool:
 
1.- Franchise Cassel and trade him for Tampa's 19th selection and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 draft

The Bucs firing John Gruden today may make this more likely. The Glazers obviously want to win now, not in several years, and one of the big knocks on Gruden in TB has been his failure to develop a long-term option at QB. Signing another stop-gap wouldn't solve this problem, nor would drafting one of the top 2 CBs even if TB could get one at #19. With a team that made the playoffs in 2007 and started 9-3 in 2008, signing a young, talented QB with experience like Cassel would probably offer the best chance of becoming a periennel contender in the NFC. The Glazers were willing to give up 2 1sts and 2 2nds in 2001 for Gruden, so a 2009 1st and a conditional 2010 pick (3rd round base; 2nd if TB makes playoffs or Cassel hits certain performance objectives; 1st if TB makes superbowl) for a long-term option at QB would not be unreasonable.
 
First off. Draftniks are always so ready to replace All-Pros with 3rd or 6th round draft picks. Please get it out of your heads that you can replace a Seymour or a Wilfork with anything other then a 1-10 pick in the First Round.

Wilfork's fall was a once in a decade fortuitous event. Seymour was all the way back in 2008. He lead the Team in Sacks 8.5, QB hits, and First Pressures, by a long shot. He should have been in the Pro Bowl, and is the real All-Pro.

The ONLY mid round draft pick that turned into a Seymour, Wilfork level player was Jared Allen. And then look at what he commanded in a FA forced trade.

I can only think of one "Foundation Lineman" in their class that ever walked, and that was the Reverend White who went to GB and won the SB for them in 1996, over the Patriots. He did it at the very end of a long career.

When were Bob Lilly, Merlin Olsen, Alan Page, Dan Hampton, Dan White, ever let go? Never. Seymour and Wilfork will be paid, Get over it. No one ever accused Belichick in not knowing what positions are important. Linemen! Adjust the rest of the roster to fit under the CAP.

I suspect that most of the rebuilding is done. But the cheapest and best rebuilding is in the draft. I would expect BB to resign his own, and then to do lots of moving around on draft day and to secure the few places open. Especially as the positions open that he seeks, future premium OL, star S, and ILB and DE--> OLB are not plentiful except for ILB.

In all your proposed roster what is the weakest position? Why only the most key position! Kevin O'Connel is probably going to be good, but not in 2009. He is a paper backup that is not ready to rescue a season if called on. The Pats should be a Super Bowl contender next year. Cassel stays until the picture is clear and if traded, the Pats sign a valid backup QB as Priority Number One!
 
<TRADE: NE Trades 1(23) + 2(57) to the New York Giants for 1(29) and 2(44). This is not strictly necessary, but I could easily see us trading down in the first (particularly if we get a second first round pick for Cassel) to move up in the second because this draft is so deep.>

Thoughts?

you did a really great job. i mean, its all tough to predict in all. BUT, how can you predict draft day trades? haha, thats funny
 
First off. Draftniks are always so ready to replace All-Pros with 3rd or 6th round draft picks. Please get it out of your heads that you can replace a Seymour or a Wilfork with anything other then a 1-10 pick in the First Round.

Wilfork's fall was a once in a decade fortuitous event.

...

The ONLY mid round draft pick that turned into a Seymour, Wilfork level player was Jared Allen.

I think you're making a bit of a straw man argument. I haven't seen anybody say "oh, guys like Wilfork and Seymour are a dime a dozen." Instead, what I hear is a lot of resignation that extending both players is likely not feasible, and that given the choice, most would focus on Wilfork.

But in any case...I really don't think the facts support the claim that Wilfork was a once-a-decade anomaly at #21. Haynesworth was close at #15 overall. Jamal Williams and Kris Jenkins were 2nd rounders. Jay Ratliff was a 7th rounder, and Pat Williams was undrafted!

In fact, of the 21 defensive linemen who made the Pro Bowl the past 2 years only 3 were top-10 draft picks, while 9 were taken in rounds 3 and beyond.
 
In all your proposed roster what is the weakest position? Why only the most key position! Kevin O'Connel is probably going to be good, but not in 2009. He is a paper backup that is not ready to rescue a season if called on. The Pats should be a Super Bowl contender next year. Cassel stays until the picture is clear and if traded, the Pats sign a valid backup QB as Priority Number One!

O'Connel, Cassell, what's the difference? :)

Seriously, though--how do you know O'Connell won't be ready in 2009? The Patriots were willing to have Cassel as Brady's only backup in 2006--and they might well be willing to do so with O'Connell next year.
 
First off. Draftniks are always so ready to replace All-Pros with 3rd or 6th round draft picks. Please get it out of your heads that you can replace a Seymour or a Wilfork with anything other then a 1-10 pick in the First Round.

Wilfork's fall was a once in a decade fortuitous event. Seymour was all the way back in 2008. He lead the Team in Sacks 8.5, QB hits, and First Pressures, by a long shot. He should have been in the Pro Bowl, and is the real All-Pro.

The ONLY mid round draft pick that turned into a Seymour, Wilfork level player was Jared Allen. And then look at what he commanded in a FA forced trade.

I can only think of one "Foundation Lineman" in their class that ever walked, and that was the Reverend White who went to GB and won the SB for them in 1996, over the Patriots. He did it at the very end of a long career.

When were Bob Lilly, Merlin Olsen, Alan Page, Dan Hampton, Dan White, ever let go? Never. Seymour and Wilfork will be paid, Get over it. No one ever accused Belichick in not knowing what positions are important. Linemen! Adjust the rest of the roster to fit under the CAP.

I guess I'm confused as to what your point is. You seem to think that I'm advocating dumping Wilfork and Seymour. I'm not. I said that resigning Wilfork is a priority and should happen. He's not unique (as Patchick pointed out), but finding a top 3-4 NT is very difficult, and there's no one in the college pipeline who looks capable of replacing him (BJ Raji and Terrance Cody are probably the 2 most intriguing prospects, but right now neither one looks like they will be as good as Vince). I assume Wilfork will get his money.

I WOULD like a 3rd-6th round draft pick who is a true 3-4 NT to back up Wilfork, as we have not had a true backup in several years, and if Wilfork were to be injured we would have trouble. We might be able to change schemes, but it would be hard to see us running our base 3-4 defense with Mike Wright or LeKevin Smith at NT for the entire game. No one will be the same as Wilfork, but we could at least fine some one in the same style. I was disappointed last year when the Pats passed on Ahtyba Rubin from Iowa, who went #190 in the 6th round to Cleveland (7 picks before we took Bo Rudd). I would have preferred using our #7 to trade up and get him to trading up for Matthew Slater. Obviously BB didn't agree. For 2009, Terrance Taylor might be an option in the 3rd-4th round; Myron Pryor from Kentucky might be an option in the 5th-6th rounds; Antonio Dixon from Miami might be an option in the 6th-7th rounds or in FA.

I would LOVE to keep Seymour. I hope the Pats find a way. But with Wilform, Mankins and Seymour all FAs after 2009 and a host of other needs, it is quite possible that we may not be able to afford Seymour and he may choose to go elsewhere for the money. Bob Lilly, Merlin Olsen, Alan Page, Dan Hampton and Dan White all played prior to FA and the salary cap; it was much less common for players to switch teams in their time. With more and more BB disciples coaching in the NFL (especially the rat fink in Cleveland) and more teams adopting a 3-4 defense, there is more and more chance that someone may throw money at him which the Pats can't afford to match without breaking their salary structure or impacting other needs. I only suggested that they think about contingency plans, whether through FA (Chris Canty) or the draft. I hope the Pats are smart enough to think ahead about different scenarios.

I suspect that most of the rebuilding is done. But the cheapest and best rebuilding is in the draft. I would expect BB to resign his own, and then to do lots of moving around on draft day and to secure the few places open. Especially as the positions open that he seeks, future premium OL, star S, and ILB and DE--> OLB are not plentiful except for ILB.

In all your proposed roster what is the weakest position? Why only the most key position! Kevin O'Connel is probably going to be good, but not in 2009. He is a paper backup that is not ready to rescue a season if called on. The Pats should be a Super Bowl contender next year. Cassel stays until the picture is clear and if traded, the Pats sign a valid backup QB as Priority Number One!

Until a few months ago most would have called Matt Cassel "a paper backup that is not ready to rescue a season if called on". I'd love to keep Cassel, but his contract is up and we either lose him, franchise him and pay 2 QBs an enormous percentage of our cap, or franchise and trade him. Of those 3 options, I prefer option 3. O'Connell has had a year to study and learn. He is no more unproven than Cassel was going into this year, and the Pats thought highly enough of him to spend a 3rd round pick on him. They can always try to bring a veteran in during the summer to add depth and experience.

#1 among the assumptions that I listed was that the Pats were fairly confident by February that TB will be back for 2009. Clearly, if they have serious doubts about this, it would be folly to trade away Cassel.
 
For 2009, Terrance Taylor might be an option in the 3rd-4th round; Myron Pryor from Kentucky might be an option in the 5th-6th rounds; Antonio Dixon from Miami might be an option in the 6th-7th rounds or in FA.
Per a Michigan alumn and former team mate of Tommy's, Taylor sucks donkey balls. The biggest positive from the Shrine Game practice reports was that he took being the coach's whipping boy with no complaint.

Raji and Ron Brace are the two most likely candidates for 3-4 NT. There was a small school kid,Sammie Lee Hill (Stillman) who was supposed to play in the Shrine game before he tweaked a hammie, he might be a late round option. Prior is a long shot, but I'd waste a 7th on him. Antonio Dixon as a UDFA is the kid I'd put more stock in once Brace is drafted.
 
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Per a Michigan alumn and former team mate of Tommy's, Taylor sucks donkey balls. The biggest positive from the Shrine Game practice reports was that he took being the coach's whipping boy with no complaint.

Raji and Ron Brace are the two most likely candidates for 3-4 NT. There was a small school kid,Sammie Lee Hill (Stillman) who was supposed to play in the Shrine game before he tweaked a hammie, he might be a late round option. Prior is a long shot, but I'd waste a 7th on him. Antonio Dixon as a UDFA is the kid I'd put more stock in once Brace is drafted.

Thanks for the update. I hadn't heard good things about Taylor from the Shrine Game reports but was hoping it was an aberration. I liked Boo Robinson from Wake Forest, but he didn't come out this year.

Dixon is an intriguing prospect from Miami. He is 6'3" 322# and was at one time rated a third round prospect prior to a knee injury. If his knee checked out he might be a steal in the 7th round or UDFA.
 
Thanks for the update. I hadn't heard good things about Taylor from the Shrine Game reports but was hoping it was an aberration. I liked Boo Robinson from Wake Forest, but he didn't come out this year.

Dixon is an intriguing prospect from Miami. He is 6'3" 322# and was at one time rated a third round prospect prior to a knee injury. If his knee checked out he might be a steal in the 7th round or UDFA.
I liked Boo also, which just goes to underscore my perception of the relative strength of next year's draft class for 3-4 DL.

I watched Dixon in their game against Georgia Tech, as a run resistant lump in the middle he looks to have the tools. I've got the Emerald bowl recording to watch yet for another look.
 
I'd be very happy with a roster like this going in to '09, but I don't think it's realistic given the Patriots cap space and free agent history. If the Patriots make 1 or 2 of the FA signings you suggest and end up with 6 or more picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, I'd feel great going in to camp. This was a fun post to read and I realize it must have taken you a ton of time.

I agree with all of this. Wish we had the cap-room to extend a bunch of ours guys (Wilfork the most, obviously) AND go after some of the FA's mentioned, but we simply don't. I also am growing less sure that we'll get a #1 PLUS for Cassel, but I still think a #1 is possible. I love the Giants trade.

Also, want to add my kudos to the OP. Mayo, it's just a GREAT post and thread, and your follow-ups are appreciated, too. This is exactly the kind of thread that was the hallmark of patsfans for a long while until a lot of bandwagonners (or, maybe, just a new generation of younger patriots fans) came along and, imo, dragged down the level of discourse. Not you, though - this is fantastic stuff, a lot of work and just what the, ahem, doctor ordered.
 
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Thanks for the props, but it's a group effort. I'm just enjoying all the discussion and everyone's insights.

As I said, I'm not a capologist. I think in some ways Pioli may be missed more for the masterful way he manipulated the cap than for his skills as a judge of talent - he had some great finds, but some spectacular misses as well.

As far as being realistic goes, in 2006 we blew a 21-3 lead and lost to the Colts in the AFCC game with an aging defense, very slow linebackers, and no wide receivers. Adalius Thomas was the ideal FA out there and I thought there was no way the Pats would spend that kind of $$, but they got him. If anyone had suggested in January 2007 that the Pats would sign Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Kelly Washington, trade for Wes Welker, and get Randy Moss for a 4th round pick they would have been laughed out of town. But I don't think it would have been unreasonable to float Thomas, Stallworth, Washington, Welker, and Moss as potential names that would be the kind of players to fix our holes.

I don't know what the cap will allow us to do, and I think resigning a bunch of our FAs and extending other key personnel should be a priority. BUT I just have a hunch that BB and company may be aggressive this year. After losing the SB last year and missing the playoffs with an injury riddled team that still went 11-5 and could easily still be playing if they had made it into the playoffs I think that the Pats are seriously pissed and will have a major attitude going into 2009. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get aggressive in FA, and I think that they will be creative enough to find ways to fit in people that they really want. Maybe it's just wishful thinking.
 
I agree with all of this. Wish we had the cap-room to extend a bunch of ours guys (Wilfork the most, obviously) AND go after some of the FA's mentioned, but we simply don't. I also am growing less sure that we'll get a #1 PLUS for Cassel, but I still think a #1 is possible.
Oh yee of faint heart. Cassel's minimum is a first round pick, bank on it. I'm more confident by the day that Cassel will be the centerpiece of an auction with the plethora of new Head Coaches and GMs looking to turn their teams around.

Off the top of my head, the following are rebuilding projects with new leadership looking to sweep out the old and start fresh.
Tampa - sitting at #17, it's unlikely they'll get a sniff of the two junior QBs who declared. I expect them to take a serious interest in Cassel.
Detroit - I hope Cassel doesn't go there, but if they can land Jeremy Bates as an OC, they may be more competitive than we thought.
St. Louis - Bulger has been set up as a bayonet dummy behind that OL, but Spagnulo may decide he needs a change behind Center.
Kansas City - The way Pioli talked about Cassel in his press conference either was part of helping his old team grow the market for Cassel, or an indication he sees Matt as his Tom Brady.
SF - I suspect they will choose to stick to Shaun Hill, but then a thorough post-season analysis may point them at Cassel.

Minnesota is managed by morons; Chicago seems comfortable with Orton; Philadelphia is once again McNabb's to abuse; Carolina could use Cassel and probably won't amidst the efforts to salvage Peppers and Gross; Dallas is a muddied puddle under the big frog, who may yet display a Romophobia; Arizona has to be looking closely at Warner and Leinart; Seattle and Hasselbeck's future need consideration; Washington has to be looking into their crystal ball; Tennessee is doing some serious contemplation about their QB situation... All or none could be Cassdawg players when it's all said and done, I'd even add Buffalo but they're too cheap - and I'm not adding the Jesters.

As for the cap, the Pats have some tweaking to do, but until I see something more than crude speculation, I'm assuming Tommy's coming back with his hair on fire. That should allow NE to trade Cassdawg and use that cap room to start targeting the 2010 UFAs. I believe an extension for Seymour is a good first step to lower his 2009 cap hit, freeing up more wiggle room, and maintaining the D-line.
 
As far as being realistic goes, in 2006 we blew a 21-3 lead and lost to the Colts in the AFCC game with an aging defense, very slow linebackers, and no wide receivers.

And, let's not forget, that the team was decimated by the flu, too (and the Colts took advantage of this by raising the thermostat in their "s***ty dome" [(c) Fitzy]).

Adalius Thomas was the ideal FA out there and I thought there was no way the Pats would spend that kind of $$, but they got him. If anyone had suggested in January 2007 that the Pats would sign Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Kelly Washington, trade for Wes Welker, and get Randy Moss for a 4th round pick they would have been laughed out of town. But I don't think it would have been unreasonable to float Thomas, Stallworth, Washington, Welker, and Moss as potential names that would be the kind of players to fix our holes.

The truly remarkable thing about that FA "binge" is that you can't look at any one contract and say, "Wow, they overpaid." In fact, Moss and Welker in particular were incredible bargains: $5M for Moss's record setting 2007 season, and <$4M/yr for Welker, who already has 250 catches in a Patriot uniform (counting the playoffs).

I don't know what the cap will allow us to do, and I think resigning a bunch of our FAs and extending other key personnel should be a priority. BUT I just have a hunch that BB and company may be aggressive this year. After losing the SB last year and missing the playoffs with an injury riddled team that still went 11-5 and could easily still be playing if they had made it into the playoffs I think that the Pats are seriously pissed and will have a major attitude going into 2009. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get aggressive in FA, and I think that they will be creative enough to find ways to fit in people that they really want. Maybe it's just wishful thinking.

I'd like to see that, but an aggressive 2009 FA period would also require that the Pats quickly resolve Cassel's future--quite probably by letting him go, which would likely mean no compensation at all.
 
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I'd like to see that, but an aggressive 2009 FA period would also require that the Pats quickly resolve Cassel's future--quite probably by letting him go, which would likely mean no compensation at all.

I'm not so sure about that. The Pats have rarely jumped into FA the first week (except for Thomas), usually letting other teams overspend in a feeding frenzy and then making some savvy low-key moves. I'm not sire that Greer, McFadden, Haden, or Sean Jones are going to be the kind of FAs who inspire teams to go crazy the first week. It's going to be the Dansby/Suggs types. Canty could go fast, and Gross if he becomes a FA. But I think that the Pats will have time to wait a week or so and still have a reasonable field of FAs.

Obviously, it is to other teams' advantage to wait on Cassel in order to either limit the Pats in FA or get them to give him up cheaply. However, it looks more and more like there may be several competitors (see Box's last post), and waiting means more opportunity for someone else to swoop him up. Plus a lot of teams would probably like to clarify their own QB situation and the financial ramifications as early as possible so that they can more clearly address other needs in FA and the draft. So it may not really be in their overall best interest, and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone cut a deal early, particularly if the Pats are willing to settle for something "reasonable" (a high 2009 pick around 19-35, a conditional 2010 pick, and possibly some other filler depending on where the initial pick is). I could see TB or KC being particularly aggressive.
 
I think B.J. Raji would be a much better 3-4 End than NT.

Brace is one of very few legit NT in this draft.
 
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