Mock Offseason FA and Draft as of January 15

[mayoclinic]

I think B.J. Raji would be a much better 3-4 End than NT.

Brace is one of very few legit NT in this draft.

Raji is 6'1" 323#, around 5.15. I have a hard time seeing how he would fit at 3-4 end. I could see someone like Sen'Derrick Marks (6'1", 295#) at 3-4 end, but BB tends to like taller guys like Seymour and Warren who can get their arms up and clog passing lanes as they collapse the pocket.

 

[BradyManny]

Anyone know anything about a guy named Sammie Lee Hill? Can't say I have seen him play or know the first thing about him other than I've seen his name on some sites as a NT.

 

[mmasterkillah]

Raji is 6'1" 323#, around 5.15. I have a hard time seeing how he would fit at 3-4 end. I could see someone like Sen'Derrick Marks (6'1", 295#) at 3-4 end, but BB tends to like taller guys like Seymour and Warren who can get their arms up and clog passing lanes as they collapse the pocket.

To me, he is a better athlete than a mauler. I think it would kind of be a waste of his skills to use him as a nose. I think he would be best shedding 15-20 pounds because he still has some baby fat.

Now, do I think that he will be a Patriot style end? Not necessarily, because as you said, we like them tall, but I don't think he'd really fit at NT either. He is the type of penetrating tackle that we could use in certain situations... but it seems he is valued far too highly for that.

 

[cstjohn17]

The college season is done and the deadline for juniors to declare has passed. Here's my first mock FA and draft.

Thoughts?

I like the draft but the FAs and restructuring seem very optimistic. If Cassel is franchised the Pats have basically no money left in free agency until the draft. By then all the top free agents are gone. Put some salaries, year, bonuses beside all those signings. The money is gobbled up pretty quickly. Players like Gross are going to bank, they aren't going to wait until April to sign.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Anyone know anything about a guy named Sammie Lee Hill? Can't say I have seen him play or know the first thing about him other than I've seen his name on some sites as a NT.

Practice reports from the Shrine Game reported some athleticism and a willingness to take coaching before he tweaked a hammie and missed the game.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

To me, he is a better athlete than a mauler. I think it would kind of be a waste of his skills to use him as a nose. I think he would be best shedding 15-20 pounds because he still has some baby fat.

Now, do I think that he will be a Patriot style end? Not necessarily, because as you said, we like them tall, but I don't think he'd really fit at NT either. He is the type of penetrating tackle that we could use in certain situations... but it seems he is valued far too highly for that.

What about the senior from USC Fili Moala, 6-4/295 as a possible end in our system. I think he had some trouble with the law but nothing too bad and I know that a lot of scouts do not like him. If he slides to the fourth or fifth I think he may be worth a pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

What about the senior from USC Fili Moala, 6-4/295 as a possible end in our system. I think he had some trouble with the law but nothing too bad and I know that a lot of scouts do not like him. If he slides to the fourth or fifth I think he may be worth a pick.

I don't know a lot about him, but if he slides to a 4th/5th he might definitely be worth a pick, or at least a hard look. I believe he is related to Haloti Ngata. Has a lot of athleticism but is inconsistent and seems to play somewhat soft from what I've seen. I'm not a huge fan of USC defenders (I agree with the "sum is greater than the total of the parts" theory), but in that range he'd be worth a serious look. Ricky-Jean Francois from LSU would also be worth a look in that range. I wouldn't spend anything higher than a 4th on DE right now, but it's always a position to think about.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

And, let's not forget, that the team was decimated by the flu, too (and the Colts took advantage of this by raising the thermostat in their "s***ty dome" [(c) Fitzy]).

............................
I'd like to see that, but an aggressive 2009 FA period would also require that the Pats quickly resolve Cassel's future--quite probably by letting him go, which would likely mean no compensation at all.

I believe we will see the typical BB Free agent approach of waiting for the bargain basement players. Signing Adailus was an abberation.

We would get compensation for Cassel if not franchaised with a probably 3rd round pick (hopefully like Asante) but he is worth much more than that obviously in this QB challenged league. Many trade scenarios with Detroit as they have picks 1, 20 and 33. I would be happy with # 20 and a conditional pick for 2010. But not sure if Detroit has enough cap space to sign a #1 rookie pick (50+million) plus Mattys contract which will also not come cheap. Anyone seen Detroits estimated Cap figure?

 

[mayoclinic]

This is post #1000. It's been a lot of fun, and a great learning experience. Thanks to Patchick, BOR, Seneschal2, Mgteich and everyone else - I've learned a lot exchanging views with you all.

Now that the Pats have plugged most of their holes in FA and are zooming towards the draft, I thought I would look back to my first mock offseason/draft of 8 weeks ago and see how it stacked up.

Assumptions:

1. Pats believe that Tom Brady is likely to come back for 2009. Check. I think this has been proven out with the trading of Matt Cassel and updated reports on Brady's knee.
2. Pats DO NOT trade DE Richard Seymour unless someone is willing to give them a 1st round pick. Check.
3. Pats are reasonably confident that they will be able to extend DT Vince Wilfork.Check. By all reports talks between the Pats and Wilfork are back on track.
4. Pats get 3rd round comp pick for Asante Samuel and 4th/5th round comp pick for Randall Gay. Check. Comp picks to be announced in 2 weeks.

Needs:

- Major/short-term: CB (Hobbs a FA after 2009; Wheatley/Wilhite still not proven); S (Harrison at or near retirement, Sanders/Williams FAs); ILB (Bruschi/Seau at/near retirement, need complement to Mayo/Guyton); OLB (Vrabel a part-time player or near retirement, need more aggressive pass rush); ROT (need Kaczur upgrade).
- Minor/longer term: RB (RB by committee effective but no clear #1 and Maroney still unproven); third receiving option; TE (Watson a FA after 2009 and Thomas still unproven); OG (Mankins a FA after 2009; Neal effective but aging and injury prone); DE (Wright a FA, Seymour/Green FAs after 2009); DT (backup for Wilfork); P (Hanson adequate but not great).

Check. I stand by the above assessment, and a lot of our moves in FA have been consistent with this.

Overall plan:

- Resign key personnel wherever reasonable. Address ROT and CB in FA to bring in veterans who can plug wholes immediately. If possible, bring in one reasonably priced TE/WR option. Where unable to resign our own FAs for reasonable $$, target cost-effective outside alternatives. Check for the most part, though the FO clearly didn't think addressing RT was a priority, or didn't find adequate value.
- Prioritize building an intimidating, attacking, disruptive, opportunistic defense. Current approach is too permissive/reactive. I stand by this assessment. So far we've mainly plugged holes, though the Bodden and Springs signings help. I hope to see more in this direction in the draft.

Details:

1. Franchise Matt Cassel and trade him to Detroit for 1(20) + conditional 2010 pick (3rd -> 1st depending on performance and results). Check on franchising Cassel and trading him, though I got the trade wrong and we should have gotten more for him than #34.

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Whiffed on that one, which was apparently as soon as it was obvious Carolina was not going to let him hit FA. Wouldn't have been able to afford him anyway.

3. Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (Buffalo; 26, 5'10" 180#). Check on upgrading CB through FA, though a whiff on the specifics. Greer priced himself out of consideration.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Whiff on Daniels who was an RFA and wasn't going to hit the open market, but check on signing a TE in FA to upgrade the position. Baker is a nice cost-effective signing.

5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Whiff, though the concept of paying attention to the DL has gotten a lot of support on this board. Resigning Wright is still an option.

6. Resign Jabar Gaffney WR OR sign a relatively inexpensive UFA WR. Check, for the most part. Would have been fine keeping Gaffney. Hopefully Greg Lewis won't give us much of a drop off

7. Resign Lewis Sanders S AND James Sanders S OR Tank Williams S OR sign UFA Sean Jones S (Cleveland). Only Meriweather is under contract. Rodney is probably done. We need 4 safeties, and plan to draft one, leaving a need for 2. Check, for the most part. James Sanders has been resigned, and Lewis Sanders was upgraded with the Shawn Springs signing.

8. Release or do not resign Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Deltha ONeal CB, Roosevelt Colvin ILB, Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Wesley Britt OT, Ryan O'Callaghan OT/G, Dan Connely OT, Billy Yates G, Lamont Jordan RB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Antwai Spann WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR, Tyson DeVree TE. Partial check. Harrison, Seau, O'Neal, Colvin, Izzo, Britt and Jordan haven't been re-signed and most don't seem a part of our plans. The others are low-cost bottom of the roster players.

9. Restructure Mike Vrabel and Stephen Neal if possible. Partial check. I think the Pats may have tried to restructure Vrabel before trading him.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. Check on Woods, whiff on Evans. With Vrabel moving on, Woods clearly has a more significant role at the moment.

2009 Draft:

1(22): Sean Smith, S/CB (Utah) - 6'3", 215#, 4.44. This pick currently translated to #23. Safety is still a day 1 need, but I don't see us drafting a CB. Smith is still a viable option in the 2nd round, though at this point I prefer Delmas as a pure S. I see #23 being most likely used on OT (William Beatty) or LB.

<TRADE: NE Trades 1(23) + 2(57) to the New York Giants for 1(29) and 2(44). This is not strictly necessary, but I could easily see us trading down in the first to move up in the second because this draft is so deep.> This is the kind of trade that could easily happen if we don't see much difference in value at #23. Trading up to #44 from 58 would be a great move.

1(29): Paul Kruger, DE/OLB (Utah) - 6'3", 265#, 4.68. Partial check. This pick currently translates to #34. After the combine I pretty much crossed Kruger off our list as more of a pure 4-3 DE guy. Would take Connor Barwin here. Johnson and Maybin are my preferred backups to Barwin at OLB. A SILB candidate such as Robert Ayers, Larry English or Clint Sintim are also options.

2(44): Connor Barwin, DE/LB (Cincinnati)- 6'3", 255#, 4.64. Check. I'm still on the Barwin bandwagon, though I expect him to go sooner. Would ideally use this pick on Louis Delmas.

2(47): Alex Mack, OG/C (Cal) - 6'4", 314#, 5.12. Partial check. A solid interior lineman would clearly be a nice pickup here. Mack would be great, but will likely go sooner. Eric Wood would be fine. A SILB such as Ayers, English or Sintim would be nice. Jarron Gilbert at DE would also be solid.

3(86): Devin Moore, RB (Wyoming) - 5'10#, 191#, 4.40. Projects to #89. I continue to like Moore, but with the Fred Taylor signing we aren't taking a RB here. If we don't take an OG/C earlier, would love to see Trevor Canfield here.

3(97): Jarett Dillard, WR (Rice) - 5'11", 185#, 4.50. Partial check. I still like Dillard, and see the need for a developmental WR around here. Right now I like Mike Wallace the most of the day 2 guys.

4(122): Ken Huber, P (Cincinnati) - 6'1", 22-#, 4.85. Partial check. I still see value in drafting a punter to upgrade Hanson and Malone. After the Senior Bowl, Huber is more likely a 5th-7th round guyt. Thomas Morstead from SMU is also an option.

4(comp): BPA, ideally 3-4 DT candidate to backup Vince. Check. I still see a NT backup to Wilfork as a definite need. Sammie Lee Hill from Spillman and Chris Baker from Hampton look like they have the most potential (though Baker has big red flags).

The remaining picks can be used for trading (up or into 2010) or to pick up practice squad material, as there will be no room on the roster.


2009 roster: Assuming the draft goes somewhat as listed above, making a few guesses as to which players will be available, and assuming we resign Mike Wright)

QB (3): TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
RB (5): LMaroney, FTaylor, SMorris, BJGreen-Ellis
WR (6): RMoss, WWelker, MWallace, GLewis, SAiken, MSlater
TE (3): BWatson, CBaker, DThomas
OT (4): WBeatty, MLight, MLevoir, NKaczur
OG/C (5): LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, TCanfield, RHochstein

DT (3): VWilfork, SLHill/CBaker, LSmith
DE (4): RSeymour, TWarren, JGreen, MWright
OLB (5): AThomas, PWoods, CBarwin, SCrable, VRedd/TBanta-Cain (If we could somehow afford Jason Taylor, this would be a really strong group)
ILB (4): JMayo, GGuyton, TBruschi, RAyers/LEnglish/CSintim
S (4): BMeriweather, LDelmas, JSanders, SSprings
CB (4): EHobbs, LBodden, TWheatley, JWilhite
CB/S (1): MRichardson/ASpann/RVentrone

P: KHuber
K: SGostkowski
LS: NHodel

There are 54 players listed above. The last cut would probably come down to RB, WR, DB or LS.

Thoughts?

Looking back, the FO has done an amazing job at filling holes and rounding out a solid team with 6 weeks to go before the draft. We are loaded for bear in the deepest draft in recent memory. All in all, I don't think my initial offeason plan was totally ludicrous.