Mock Offseason FA and Draft as of January 15

[mayoclinic]

The college season is done and the deadline for juniors to declare has passed. Here's my first mock FA and draft.

Assumptions:

1. Pats believe that Tom Brady is likely to come back for 2009.
2. Pats DO NOT trade DE Richard Seymour unless someone is willing to give them a 1st round pick (which is possible, given that Jason Taylor was traded for a 2nd round pick).
3. Pats are reasonably confident that they will be able to extend DT Vince Wilfork.
4. Pats get 3rd round comp pick for Asante Samuel and 4th/5th round comp pick for Randall Gay.

Needs:

- Major/short-term: CB (Hobbs a FA after 2009; Wheatley/Wilhite still not proven); S (Harrison at or near retirement, Sanders/Williams FAs); ILB (Bruschi/Seau at/near retirement, need complement to Mayo/Guyton); OLB (Vrabel a part-time player or near retirement, need more aggressive pass rush); ROT (need Kaczur upgrade).
- Minor/longer term: RB (RB by committee effective but no clear #1 and Maroney still unproven); third receiving option; TE (Watson a FA after 2009 and Thomas still unproven); OG (Mankins a FA after 2009; Neal effective but aging and injury prone); DE (Wright a FA, Seymour/Green FAs after 2009); DT (backup for Wilfork); P (Hanson adequate but not great).

Overall plan:

- Resign key personnel wherever reasonable. Address ROT and CB in FA to bring in veterans who can plug wholes immediately. If possible, bring in one reasonably priced TE/WR option. Where unable to resign our own FAs for reasonable $$, target cost-effective outside alternatives.
- Prioritize building an intimidating, attacking, disruptive, opportunistic defense. Current approach is too permissive/reactive.

Details:

1. Franchise Matt Cassel and trade him to Detroit for 1(20) + conditional 2010 pick (3rd -> 1st depending on performance and results). Franchise as insurance against Brady comeback and to get value for him. Trade when it becomes apparent Brady is recovering well. Detroit has 2 first round picks, so trading for Cassel would give them a QB ready to play and allow them room to address their other main needs. Equally possible would be trades to Tampa Bay for 1(19) or Minnesota for 1(22). With only Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez as likely first round QBs there is not much to choose from and someone will miss out unless they roll the dice on Cassel.

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

3. Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (Buffalo; 26, 5'10" 180#). Buffalo has McKelvin developing, freeing up Greer. Solid upgrade over ONeal. Core of Greer/Hobbs/Wheatley/Wilhite would be solid. Guards against Hobbs becoming FA in 2009. Doesn't break bank. Other options include Dunta Robinson (Houston), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh) and Kelvin Haden (Indianapolis). Richard Marshall (RFA, Carolina) and Carlos Rogers (Washington) would likely require giving up draft picks or trading.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009.

5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

6. Resign Jabar Gaffney WR OR sign a relatively inexpensive UFA WR such as Devery Henderson (NO) or Reggie Williams (Jacksonville). I'm fine with Gaffney, who sounds like he wants to come back, but there should be reasonable alternatives available.

7. Resign Lewis Sanders S AND James Sanders S OR Tank Williams S OR sign UFA Sean Jones S (Cleveland). Only Meriweather is under contract. Rodney is probably done. We need 4 safeties, and plan to draft one, leaving a need for 2. Lewis Sanders is probably the most versatile of the 3 Pats FAs (can play CB as well), was playing well at the end of 2008, and is probably the cheapest and easiest to resign. Could resign James Sanders if reasonable $$ or go with an outside FA of comparable value. Williams is uncertain after his injury, and could be brought back if unable to sign or draft a fourth safety.

8. Release or do not resign Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Deltha ONeal CB, Roosevelt Colvin ILB, Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Wesley Britt OT, Ryan O'Callaghan OT/G, Dan Connely OT, Billy Yates G, Lamont Jordan RB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Antwai Spann WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR, Tyson DeVree TE. Harrison is a god but is too old and injury prone. Seau is an option if Bruschi retires, but otherwise can be kept on the shadow roster for insurance while he surfs. Colvin hasn't shown much since his injury, and needs to make room for youth. Jordan would be great to keep, but will probably be too expensive. The rest are just JAGs.

9. Restructure Mike Vrabel and Stephen Neal if possible. Vrabel is fading fast but still offers leadership and experience. Neal is injury prone and aging. Signing Gross allows Kaczur to move to RG if Neal can't be resigned for less. Restructuing both frees up some needed $$ for FA.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. I see Woods and Vince Redd fighting it out for the last OLB spot and Evans and Law Firm fighting it out for the last RB spot.

2009 Draft:

1(22): Sean Smith, S/CB (Utah) - 6'3", 215#, 4.44. Smith is large and fast with great range and could play both CB and S. William Moore could also be a potential pick here.

<TRADE: NE Trades 1(23) + 2(57) to the New York Giants for 1(29) and 2(44). This is not strictly necessary, but I could easily see us trading down in the first (particularly if we get a second first round pick for Cassel) to move up in the second because this draft is so deep.>

1(29): Paul Kruger, DE/OLB (Utah) - 6'3", 265#, 4.68. Kruger is mature, has a non-stop motor, and is a high character guy. He has some experience covering the TE as a DE. He is reminiscent of Jared Allen (whom BB was rumored to love last year), and has the athleticism, intelligence and intensity to play the elephant and replace Mike Vrabel at OLB. Other options would include Michael Johnson, Aaron Maybin, and Cliff Sintim.

2(44): Connor Barwin, DE/LB (Cincinnati)- 6'3", 255#, 4.64. Perfect Pats-type player. Versatile - played TE, DE/OLB in college, can probably move inside and play SILB to complement Mayo. As a former tight end, could double on offense, and also has good hands and coverage ability. Trio of Mayo/Barwin/Guyton would give the Pats a great young nucleus at ILB for years to come. Could also cover OLB. Very high motor - never lets up. A bit reminiscent of David Pollack. High character player. Still developing, with very high upside. Clint Sintim (see above) would also be a possibility here if he falls, as someone able to play both 3-4 OLB and SILB. I think Barwin has more upside. Karlos Dansby (UFA, Arizona) would make a great SILB complement to Mayo if we went the FA route (instead of Jordan Gross, and used this pick on an OT such as William Beatty from Connecticut), but the price would be high and there is a lot of talent in the draft.

2(47): Alex Mack, OG/C (Cal) - 6'4", 314#, 5.12. Another perfect Pats-type player who falls to the mid-second round because of a perceived lack of athleticism. Highly intelligent, high motor player who could back up OG and upgrade center, where Koppen has been overmatched against powerful DTs.

3(86): Devin Moore, RB (Wyoming) - 5'10#, 191#, 4.40. Darren Sproles type all-purpose threat.

3(97): Jarett Dillard, WR (Rice) - 5'11", 185#, 4.50. Greg Jennings type wide receive who falls to 3rd round because of talented WR class plus lack of size and timed speed. Precise route runner, good hands, productive. Great Shrine game practices.

4(122): Ken Huber, P (Cincinnati) - 6'1", 22-#, 4.85. Best punter in nation, gives us a Mike Scifres type of punter as a major upgrade from Hanson. Particularly good at pinning opponents insidethe 20.

4(comp): BPA, ideally 3-4 DT candidate to backup Vince. I could also seeing us take Huber here and trading our 4th round pick along with other considerations to move up into the third round and grab an NT backup such as Terrance Taylor (Michigan).

The remaining picks can be used for trading (up or into 2010) or to pick up practice squad material, as there will be no room on the roster.


2009 roster:

QB (3): TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
RB (5): LMaroney, SMorris, KFaulk, DMoore, HEvans
WR (5): RMoss, WWelker, JGaffney, JDillard, KWashington
TE (3): ODaniels, BWatson, DThomas
OT (4): JGross, MLight, MLevoir, NKaczur
OG/C (5): LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, AMack, RHochstein

DT (3): VWilfork, LSmith, <draftee>
DE (4): RSeymour, TWarren, MWright/CCanty, JGreen
OLB (5): AThomas, MVrabel, PKruger, SCrable, VRedd/PWoods
ILB (4): JMayo, GGuyton, CBarwin, TBruschi
S (4): BMeriweather, SSmith, JSanders/SJones, LSanders
CB (5): EHobbs, JGreer, TWheatley, GWilhite, +1

P: KHuber
K: SGostkowski
LS: LPaxton

If someone can eventually take over LS from Paxton I could see opening up a 6th WR spot.

Thoughts?

 

[ScottLK]

A 4th on a punter? I don't like your draft picks in general. Players should be seniors and have enough quality competition on tape to make a judgement. That means that Will Moore should be taken. A safety that projects to CB = TeBucky Jones.

We should stay out of Free Agency. We can draft another RT instead of paying Gross. We need two WRs to be developed within the system. Moss may be here for no more than two years. Gaffney will take playing time from the new WRs.

 

[DocE]

The college season is done and the deadline for juniors to declare has passed. Here's my first mock FA and draft.

Assumptions:

1. Pats believe that Tom Brady is likely to come back for 2009.
2. Pats DO NOT trade DE Richard Seymour unless someone is willing to give them a 1st round pick (which is possible, given that Jason Taylor was traded for a 2nd round pick).
3. Pats are reasonably confident that they will be able to extend DT Vince Wilfork.
4. Pats get 3rd round comp pick for Asante Samuel and 4th/5th round comp pick for Randall Gay.
I hope all your assumptions are correct as these would all be good events for the Patriots.

Needs:

- Major/short-term: CB (Hobbs a FA after 2009; Wheatley/Wilhite still not proven); S (Harrison at or near retirement, Sanders/Williams FAs); ILB (Bruschi/Seau at/near retirement, need complement to Mayo/Guyton); OLB (Vrabel a part-time player or near retirement, need more aggressive pass rush); ROT (need Kaczur upgrade).
- Minor/longer term: RB (RB by committee effective but no clear #1 and Maroney still unproven); third receiving option; TE (Watson a FA after 2009 and Thomas still unproven); OG (Mankins a FA after 2009; Neal effective but aging and injury prone); DE (Wright a FA, Seymour/Green FAs after 2009); DT (backup for Wilfork); P (Hanson adequate but not great).

I am closer to your line of thinking here than some other posters that I also respect. I think the defense needs some significant changes. I would be happy if they could upgrade at 2 positions defensively and get by with what they have at the other 2. EX Vrabel and Sanders start, but upgrades are found at CB and SILB. As long as they upgrade at CB and one other spot on D, I think they can contend next year.
Overall plan:

- Resign key personnel wherever reasonable. Address ROT and CB in FA to bring in veterans who can plug wholes immediately. If possible, bring in one reasonably priced TE/WR option. Where unable to resign our own FAs for reasonable $$, target cost-effective outside alternatives.
- Prioritize building an intimidating, attacking, disruptive, opportunistic defense. Current approach is too permissive/reactive

1. Franchise Matt Cassel and trade him to Detroit for 1(20) + conditional 2010 pick (3rd -> 1st depending on performance and results). Franchise as insurance against Brady comeback and to get value for him. Trade when it becomes apparent Brady is recovering well. Detroit has 2 first round picks, so trading for Cassel would give them a QB ready to play and allow them room to address their other main needs. Equally possible would be trades to Tampa Bay for 1(19) or Minnesota for 1(22). With only Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez as likely first round QBs there is not much to choose from and someone will miss out unless they roll the dice on Cassel.

Very realistic trade scenarios a first this year and a conditional pick depending on performance next year seems logical

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

I don't see this happening as Gross will be the most coveted OT on the market. I am not a big Kaczur fan, but I see him as a guy you can win with at RT if you are solid in other areas. Khalif Barnes has really regressed the past two years and Jax is looking to upgrade from him, so I doubt the Pats want him as a starter. If the Pats were able to bring in a FA who will command the contract Gross will, I would hope it would be a defender.

3. Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (Buffalo; 26, 5'10" 180#). Buffalo has McKelvin developing, freeing up Greer. Solid upgrade over ONeal. Core of Greer/Hobbs/Wheatley/Wilhite would be solid. Guards against Hobbs becoming FA in 2009. Doesn't break bank. Other options include Dunta Robinson (Houston), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh) and Kelvin Haden (Indianapolis). Richard Marshall (RFA, Carolina) and Carlos Rogers (Washington) would likely require giving up draft picks or trading.

I think an experienced CB is a must this offseason, so I am right with you here. Richard Marshall is not an RFA, but he will be a UFA in 2010. I just read today that the Panthers will likely part ways with Ken Lucas due to his age and contract size. Lucas and Chris McAlister seem like they might both be available and either would be interesting options at cheap enough prices, but less so than Greer or my favorite Ronald Bartell. I'd be interested in Carlos Rogers depending on the price...he played great to start the year and then fell off. If the Patriots add a quality CB and Wheatley or Wilhite comes on, that CB situation starts to look nice.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009

Daniels is an RFA not a UFA and I see him getting a first round tender from Houston, so he's not an option.


5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

Canty will likely get a big FA contract he's 26 and has started every game for 3 years for Dallas. I have seen him rated as the 3rd best FA DE. He is going to start wherever he ends up.

6. Resign Jabar Gaffney WR OR sign a relatively inexpensive UFA WR such as Devery Henderson (NO) or Reggie Williams (Jacksonville). I'm fine with Gaffney, who sounds like he wants to come back, but there should be reasonable alternatives available.

I'd love to upgrade at the 3rd WR spot as it's a starting postion on the Patriots. That said, it's a weak year for FA's at the position and a rookie would have a tough time learning the system well enough to be a starter. I think re-signing Gaffney makes the most sense unless a veteran wants to come try to win a ring on a small contract (ex Torry Holt if he gets cut)

7. Resign Lewis Sanders S AND James Sanders S OR Tank Williams S OR sign UFA Sean Jones S (Cleveland). Only Meriweather is under contract. Rodney is probably done. We need 4 safeties, and plan to draft one, leaving a need for 2. Lewis Sanders is probably the most versatile of the 3 Pats FAs (can play CB as well), was playing well at the end of 2008, and is probably the cheapest and easiest to resign. Could resign James Sanders if reasonable $$ or go with an outside FA of comparable value. Williams is uncertain after his injury, and could be brought back if unable to sign or draft a fourth safety.

I agree that we need 3 safeties, I am not against bringing Rodney back to play a limited role depending on who else is added or re-signed. There are some interesting RFA safeties who could be targeted if they don't get first round tenders: Jarrad Page of the Chiefs, Dawan Landry of Baltimore, and Atari Bigby or Green Bay...one of those 3 might be worth a 2nd round pick to acquire

 

[DocE]

8. Release or do not resign Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Deltha ONeal CB, Roosevelt Colvin ILB, Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Wesley Britt OT, Ryan O'Callaghan OT/G, Dan Connely OT, Billy Yates G, Lamont Jordan RB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Antwai Spann WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR, Tyson DeVree TE. Harrison is a god but is too old and injury prone. Seau is an option if Bruschi retires, but otherwise can be kept on the shadow roster for insurance while he surfs. Colvin hasn't shown much since his injury, and needs to make room for youth. Jordan would be great to keep, but will probably be too expensive. The rest are just JAGs.

You've got to have some guys contribute who are minimum salary type players. I think Ventrone and Aiken both are valuable special teamers and should be back. Slater is on 5th round rookie contract and has played both offense and defense and should have a good shot to make the team again in camp. I'd like to be able to move on from Izzo, but I trust BB there. O'Callaghan should get a shot to come back from his injury, remember the OL retreads we had to sign to get through last camp? DeVree showed enough to make Dave Thomas inactive once, so he should come to camp.

9. Restructure Mike Vrabel and Stephen Neal if possible. Vrabel is fading fast but still offers leadership and experience. Neal is injury prone and aging. Signing Gross allows Kaczur to move to RG if Neal can't be resigned for less. Restructuing both frees up some needed $$ for FA.

Not sure Kaczur has the movement skills to play Neal's RG position. I think Jarvis Green is the most likely restructure candidate on the roster. I am not sure that I agree that Vrabel is fading fast.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. I see Woods and Vince Redd fighting it out for the last OLB spot and Evans and Law Firm fighting it out for the last RB spot.

I like a lot of your picks right now, but I am not married to anyone yet. I do worry about Smith's size as the only successful 6'3 CB I can think of was Bobby Taylor. I believe Smith is only a one year full time starter as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the agility drills compared to his shorter peers. I had to cut your mock draft out of my post to save space.

2009 roster:

QB (3): TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
RB (5): LMaroney, SMorris, KFaulk, DMoore, HEvans
WR (5): RMoss, WWelker, JGaffney, JDillard, KWashington
TE (3): ODaniels, BWatson, DThomas
OT (4): JGross, MLight, MLevoir, NKaczur
OG/C (5): LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, AMack, RHochstein

DT (3): VWilfork, LSmith, <draftee>
DE (4): RSeymour, TWarren, MWright/CCanty, JGreen
OLB (5): AThomas, MVrabel, PKruger, SCrable, VRedd/PWoods
ILB (4): JMayo, GGuyton, CBarwin, TBruschi
S (4): BMeriweather, SSmith, JSanders/SJones, LSanders
CB (5): EHobbs, JGreer, TWheatley, GWilhite, +1

P: KHuber
K: SGostkowski
LS: LPaxton

If someone can eventually take over LS from Paxton I could see opening up a 6th WR spot.

Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

I'd be very happy with a roster like this going in to '09, but I don't think it's realistic given the Patriots cap space and free agent history. If the Patriots make 1 or 2 of the FA signings you suggest and end up with 6 or more picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, I'd feel great going in to camp. This was a fun post to read and I realize it must have taken you a ton of time.

 

[mayoclinic]

A 4th on a punter? I don't like your draft picks in general. Players should be seniors and have enough quality competition on tape to make a judgement. That means that Will Moore should be taken. A safety that projects to CB = TeBucky Jones.

We should stay out of Free Agency. We can draft another RT instead of paying Gross. We need two WRs to be developed within the system. Moss may be here for no more than two years. Gaffney will take playing time from the new WRs.

The last 2 top rated punters were Adam Podlesh and Daniel Sepulveda. Podlesh went 101 (4th round, 2nd pick, to Jacksonville) and Sepulveda 112 (13th pick, to Pittsburgh), so I assumed that if we really want to go after a top punter we will need to be similarly aggressive. Some posters have gone so far as to suggest that we target Shane Lechler from Oakland in FA. Spending a 4th round on a top punting prospect would certainly be cheaper and easier.

The only 2 non-seniors I have listed are the 2 players from Utah. Connor Barwin, Alex Mack, Devin Moore, Jarrett Dillard and Huber are all seniors. I certainly want more value than "Tebucky Jones" with our first round pick. I'd be fine with Will Moore, but right now he may be more uncertain than Sean Smith - he could easily go top 20, or 2nd-3rd round depending on how he works out. Smith and Kruger are likely to be fast risers. Draftdaddy has Kruger going 30 in their first round draft today, and NationalFootball Post had Smith going 26 in their last mock, so I don't think either is totally unreasonable. If you prefer to substitute William Moore and Cliff Sintim based on experience I'd be fine with that.

We have only so many draft spots. I assume we may draft one second WR this year, and another next year. I'd love to draft 2 WRs and an OT (and address all our other needs in the draft) but we have other needs and a limited number of choices, and my draft has assumed that rebuilding the defense is a priority. That may not be the way BB goes, but I don't think it's totally unreasonable. We got aggressive in FA 2 years ago to address needs, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do so again. I don't see us going crazy over FAs, but I do see us resigning some of our own, replacing them with comparable talent if they can't be reasonably resigned, and targetting a few key needs. I've chosen OT and CB is my FA target areas in order to focus on other areas in the draft, but we could certainly go a different direction.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[mayoclinic]

DocE, thanks for your thoughtful comments. I am working today, and will try to post replies tonight.

I based my FA list off of footballsfuture.com, which lists Owen Daniels as an UFA. If he is truly an RFA then that would certainly change things and make him not an option.

 

[Clonamery]

DocE, thanks for your thoughtful comments. I am working today, and will try to post replies tonight.

I based my FA list off of footballsfuture.com, which lists Owen Daniels as an UFA. If he is truly an RFA then that would certainly change things and make him not an option.

Yeah, Daniels is a RFA. Even as an UFA I see him as too expensive.

 

[Clonamery]

Oh, fantastic detail and thoughtful post. I think I agree with most of Doce's points, especially on OUR JAG's. I like the positions you want to draft more than the players but pre-combine it's just a Christmas wish-list, so be it.

Thanks again for the post.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm very appreciative of the thought and time spent doing this. I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but that's irrelevant, as long as you can justify it.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like a lot of your picks right now, but I am not married to anyone yet. I do worry about Smith's size as the only successful 6'3 CB I can think of was Bobby Taylor. I believe Smith is only a one year full time starter as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the agility drills compared to his shorter peers.

As mentioned above, I would be happy with William Moore at 20-23 in the 1st. I had originally put him in my mock, but at this point it seems like there is a 33% chance he will go top 20, a 33% chance he will fall out of the 1st round entirely, and a 33% chance he will fall around where we pick. I thought the Sean Smith pick would stimulate more controversy, as it did. Nnamdi Asomugha is 6'2" 210# and he seems to be able to cover ok.

I personally see Smith as primarily a S who can also play some CB and can cover big receivers such as TO, Plaxico Burress, etc. For a pure CB I would like DJ Moore from Vanderbilt, but I personally see him going top 20. Moore also has KR and WR versatility. Vontae Davis could potentially fall into the 20's if DJ Moore and Sean Smith rise, but I'm not a big fan of his - all world talent but inconsistent results, which seems to run in the family.

Footballs Future has their list of declared underclassmen with draft projections out today, and lists Smith as a 1st round pick. They note: "Smith will be the most intriguing prospect coming out this season. At cornerback, he’s a giant at 6’3, 210. What’s more intriguing is that he’s reportedly running a 4.3 or 4.4 40. At his height, short area quickness will become an immediate question, but should he not test well there, he’ll be an easy transition to safety. Smith has the on-field ability to equal his combination of size and speed and is a projected first round selection." I guess I could live with that, at least at this early stage of things. I'm also not married to anyone (though Connor Barwin is my binky), but I tried to list picks whom I thought would be provocative and worth putting on people's radar instead of some of just the same old names.

 

[mayoclinic]

DocE, thanks for the detailed and insightful comments. A lot of what you say in undoubtedly more accurate than what I have (I suspect BB will keep a lot of the "JAGs" that I listed, as he likes continuity and, as you say, they are an important part of the roster), but I wanted to create room to push some intriguing players early on. I've added some responses to your comments in red below (with my original post item in black):

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

I don't see this happening as Gross will be the most coveted OT on the market. I am not a big Kaczur fan, but I see him as a guy you can win with at RT if you are solid in other areas. Khalif Barnes has really regressed the past two years and Jax is looking to upgrade from him, so I doubt the Pats want him as a starter. If the Pats were able to bring in a FA who will command the contract Gross will, I would hope it would be a defender.

I know this is a long shot, but in my dreams we would sign Gross to solidify the OL and then add youth and speed to the S and LB positions through the draft. Carolina has already resigned Chris Gamble to a big contract, and may not be able to resign both Julius Peppers and Gross. Gross making All Pro makes this less likely. If the Pats were to spend the money on a defensive FA of comparable impact, the one I could reasonably see would be Karlos Dansby who could play SILB. In that case we would only take one DE/LB candidate in the draft, and would use the other pick on OT. The problem I see with that is (1) Arizona is likely to resign Dansby long term, and (2) the top 5 OT's are all likely to go top 20. Eben Britten and William Beatty would be viable options in the 29-44 range, but OTs have a tendency to rise quickly in the draft, as they did last year.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009

Daniels is an RFA not a UFA and I see him getting a first round tender from Houston, so he's not an option.

I stand corrected. I got this from FootballsFuture, which listed him as a UFA. He's obviously not an option. Wish we'd taken him instead of Dave Thomas in 2006.

5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

Canty will likely get a big FA contract he's 26 and has started every game for 3 years for Dallas. I have seen him rated as the 3rd best FA DE. He is going to start wherever he ends up.

I would be content with resigning Wright and keeping Green, especially if we can restructure Green. I understand Canty is an unlikely option and may be too expensive, but if we think there's a good chance we won't extend Seymour beyond 2009 then he becomes a potentialyl cost-effective replacement at 3-4 DE. Also, Green has a $5M cap hit currently. If we restructure or cut Green, then spending that kind of money on Canty doesn't seem unreasonable. Do you think he would command much more than a 5 year/$25M contract? If Seymour's contract comes off the boards after 2009, then Warren/Canty/Wright/restructured Green would be a solid replacement. There are likely to be a lot of good 3-4 DE candidates in 2010 as well (Namdukong Suh, Vince Oghobasse, Arthur Davis, etc.).

I'm not a capologist and haven't tried to rigorously cost-control my suggestions. I do think that the Pats are able to get creative with the cap, and that if they really want someone they will find a way to create some money.

More responses to your other comments to come. Thanks again for taking the time to reply in detail.

 

[patchick]

Lots of interesting stuff to chew on, but one quick thought along the way. There are two moves here that require "two to tango" -- Cassel to Lions, and swapping picks with the Giants -- where you haven't given any suggestion of what's in it for the other guy.

If you were Cassel, would you be willing to negotiate with Detroit if there were ANY other teams interested? And if the Pats feel that the top-level talent in this draft runs into the 40s, wouldn't the Giants feel the same way?

BTW, I'm absolutely fine with a 4th-round punter if the Pats feel he's an elite talent.

 

[BradyManny]

I was interested in Gross, but I think Kaczur's play once Neal was back was much better and makes it less of a need.

I like the idea of trading Cassel to Detroit and getting 22, I personally think Detroit is better off doing that than taking either of the QBs going in the first round.

I only like the idea of trading down from one of the first round picks and grabbing another second if there's no one we want at that spot. It could happen, there's definitely a bunch of players in rounds 2-3 I think we could use and would be cheaper than 1st rounders.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

First off, props on the Connor Barwin pick, although I think he'd work better at OLB than ILB.

Now, a few slightly-more-than-nitpicks:

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009.

This is a serious question--why do you think any TE is going to put up monster stats in an offense that also has Welker? [Seriously--one out of every seven offensive plays the last two years has been a pass attempt to Welker; of the snaps where Welker's on the field that number's about one in five.]

8. Release or do not resign Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR.

JAGs they might be, but that's basically the entire nucleus of ST plays, and Belichick has seen enough upside in all of them to keep them on the game day roster (obviously not Alexander this year). I'm fairly sure at least one or two of them will be gone, but I think it highly unlikely they'll all be let go.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. I see Woods and Vince Redd fighting it out for the last OLB spot and Evans and Law Firm fighting it out for the last RB spot.

Evans is a FB, Law Firm is not. OTOH, Evans has been willing in the past to accept below-market deals to stay in New England.

 

[mayoclinic]

Lots of interesting stuff to chew on, but one quick thought along the way. There are two moves here that require "two to tango" -- Cassel to Lions, and swapping picks with the Giants -- where you haven't given any suggestion of what's in it for the other guy.

If you were Cassel, would you be willing to negotiate with Detroit if there were ANY other teams interested? And if the Pats feel that the top-level talent in this draft runs into the 40s, wouldn't the Giants feel the same way?

BTW, I'm absolutely fine with a 4th-round punter if the Pats feel he's an elite talent.

Thanks for the comments.

Assuming we franchise Cassel, we can control where he goes. I assume Cassel would be willing to go anywhere where we gets to start and gets paid well, but I understand your point. Detroit could be attractive to Cassel because (1) expectations are so low after going 0-16 that it's hard to do worse, and he will certainly be a big improvement over what they have now; and (2) Calvin Johnson gives him a Moss-like target. As I recall, Furrey is a decent slot receiver as well. So I think he has a reasonable chance to succeed. Also, I think Jim Schwartz has a connection to the BB tree.

I think the trade makes sense for Detroit because they keep the #1 and #33 picks to rebuild. If they drafted a franchise LT (to go with Cherilous at RT where he is a much better fit) then they would have a decent OL to protect their new franchise CB (another positive for Cassel, as I imagine he wouldn't want to go anywhere where he would be running for his life). With Kevin Smith at RB, a decent OL, Johnson and Furrey at WR and Cassel at QB the lions would have a decent offense. Spend their other high picks on the defense (DL, CB, LB) and they would certainly be more competitive than they were this year. So I think Cassel offers them the best chance to get competitive quickly. I think any new coach would like to put some wins on the board in order to buy time and credibility to rebuild for the long haul.

However, I'm not wedded to the Lions as the only option. TB and Minnesota are picking in the same range. I don't see SF as a likely option right now. Carolina doesn't have a 1st round pick, and I don't see them pulling the plug on Jake Delhomme after one bad game. KC might be an option but I don't see them trading #3 in the draft (or us really wanting a pick that high),and we can probably do better than #34-35.

Regarding a trade down with the Giants, it wasn't critical as Alex Mack or a comparable OG could easily fall to us at #57, but I wanted to plant the idea that I could see BB trading a second 1st round pick back and moving up in the 2nd round given the amount of 1st round calibre talent that will be available in the first half of that round. What would be in it for a team like the Giants (I chose them because they have an additional 2nd round pick around #44-45 from New Orleans for Jeremy Shockey; the Dolphins could also be an option as they have an additional pick from Washington for Jason Taylor) was that without having to give up their additional 2nd round pick they could move up 9 spots or so to target someone. The Pats gave a 3rd rounder in 2002 to move up from 32 to 21 to get Dan Graham, so a swap of second round picks seems not entirely unreasonable. I could see the Giants moving up to get their MLB of choice (Laurinaitis), an additional pass rusher (Michael Johnson or Aaron Maybin), an OT (Eben Britton) or a big WR threat given how anemic their offense became without Plaxico Burress (DHB, Kenny Britt, or Brandon LaFell might be options).

These were just ideas to provoke thought. I'm not wedded to either, but I think the scenarious are realistic and were worth putting out there. Thanks.

 

[zero]

1.- Franchise Cassel and trade him for Tampa's 19th selection and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 draft
2.- I don't see enough cap romm for Gross
3.- Jabari Greer Check
4.- Owen Daniels is a RFA so he's going to be tender by Texans (probably for a 1st round)
5.- Mike Wright Check
6.- Jabar Gaffney Check
7.- James Sanders as a backup and Sean Jones as a starter Check
8.- Shadow roster: Colvin and Seau Active Roster: Harrison (leadership)
9.- Restructure Vrabel and Neal, cut JGreen Chek Woods Check (as a RFA)

Draft

1 (19).- CB D.J. Moore (Valderbilt) I like a lot Sean Smith from Utah but with Sean Jones, Meriweather, Harrison and James Sanders we are set.
1 (23).- DE/OLB Paul Kruger Check
2(47).- DE/OLB/ILB Connor Baldwin Check
2 (57).- G/C Jonathan Luigs (Alex Mack isn't going to be here)
3 (86).- RB Devin Moore Check
3 (97).- WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio State) I like him at this point
4 (22).- K. Huber Check
4 (Cond. pick).- TE Bear Pascoe (Fresno State)

 

[Isaac]

Awesome thread. Thank you MayoC for your attention to detail.

 

[Seneschal2]

Mock Offseason FA and Draft as of January 15

I sincerely thank you for your effort. Time doesn't allow me for any in depth analysis except to say, the signability of some of our starters will seriously influence our draft selections, and determine how much of a splash we make in FA. In addition, it's still early in the draft process to know for certain where these prospects will accurately project. But this is only your first mock, knowing you'll adjust as we go.

 

[mayoclinic]

1.- Franchise Cassel and trade him for Tampa's 19th selection and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 draft
2.- I don't see enough cap romm for Gross
3.- Jabari Greer Check
4.- Owen Daniels is a RFA so he's going to be tender by Texans (probably for a 1st round)
5.- Mike Wright Check
6.- Jabar Gaffney Check
7.- James Sanders as a backup and Sean Jones as a starter Check
8.- Shadow roster: Colvin and Seau Active Roster: Harrison (leadership)
9.- Restructure Vrabel and Neal, cut JGreen Chek Woods Check (as a RFA)

Draft

1 (19).- CB D.J. Moore (Valderbilt) I like a lot Sean Smith from Utah but with Sean Jones, Meriweather, Harrison and James Sanders we are set.
1 (23).- DE/OLB Paul Kruger Check
2(47).- DE/OLB/ILB Connor Baldwin Check
2 (57).- G/C Jonathan Luigs (Alex Mack isn't going to be here)
3 (86).- RB Devin Moore Check
3 (97).- WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio State) I like him at this point
4 (22).- K. Huber Check
4 (Cond. pick).- TE Bear Pascoe (Fresno State)

I like it. I'm fine with the trade to TB as an alternative to Minnesota or Detroit. A couple of thoughts:

1.-I accept that we probably won't be able to sign Gross, but could still see us getting a RT option in FA. Steve Tauscher and John Runyan have been listed as short-term options. I'm still not entirely comfortable with Kaczur at RT. I think his improved play in the second half of 2008 was due mainly to the return of Stephen Neal at RG, who compensated some for him.
2.-If we resign Sanders AND sign Sean Jones then I agree we don't need S in the 1st. I LOVE DJ Moore, but could see him easily go top 20.
3.-I like Luigs (and there were reports that the Pats were scouting Arkansas earlier in the year, so they may like him too) but like Mack better, which is why I suggested the trade back in the 1st/up in the 2nd round. Draftscout currently lists Mack around #58 in its top 64 2009 prospects, so he could possibly fall to us at 57, but I would be much more confident if we had another pick in the top half of the round. Luigs is a good alternative.
4.-Robiskie is a reasonable WR option. Dillard seems like a typical Pats choice - not great measurables but runs precise routes and catches everything. Either one would be fine.
5.-I had considered Bear Pascoe, but reports from the Shrine Game practices are not encouraging. By all reports he looks clumsy and awkward against even that level of competition.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

That was a great read Mayoclinic....and by the way I love the name.

Assumptions: I think Brady should be back in 2009 and we drafted a QB in the third last year so I would say BB knows something about this kid which make me more comfortable to let Cassel go. I like Seymour and we would be hard pressed to find a replacement (with knowledge and production in 3-4)in the short term so I see him staying like you. If Wright continues to play well and we resign him maybe we could let Seymour go after 2009 but Wright is a key guy we need to resign. Extending Wilfork is a must aswell.

Needs: DB's, DB's DB's you have that exactly right. The two rookies from 2008 could have a great off season and come in to compete but I think we need to get a corner who can compete as a #1 and move Hobbs to # 2 corner and have Whilite/Wheatly fight it out as the nickel. LB would be nice to upgrade but there are alot of young guys I am intrested to see next preseason (Crable, Guyton, Redd and Woods). Maybe a versatile vet but as I said I wonder how the offseason is going to treat this young guys.

Overall Plan: The only thing I really do not agree with is Kaczer, I think to get a replacement will cost too much in the FA market and he did start in one of the most productive offense in NFL history. While I know he is not rock solid I think he can do the job and we look to the draft to see if anyone could push him this year.

Details
1. Franchise Cassel - totally agree NE has an assets and they will use it....him. What about SF at # 10 in the draft. If we could get the CB from Ohio State Jenkins (if GB does not take him at #9) might be an option I was teasing myself with.
2. Sign Jordan Gross - the only thing I disagree with as we have won with Kaczer before I think draft someone at the end of day one to push him and provide depth on the O-line.
3. Sign Jabari Greer - I really like this one and love the way he plays. I like Robinson from the Texans pre-injury but this all has to do with $$ as FA the last few years have been getting silly $ sometimes like another old Buffalo corner who is rich in SF.
4. Sign Owen Danials - Well I love this kid as he is young but I would be surprised if the Texans let him go as he is smart and very productive for Matt Swaub. Other then Johnson he is their second best target and the $$ he would want might be steep.
5. Resign Mike Wright - Totally agree and I hope we can get him for a good price. Very productive player who I have enjoyed watching unlike Green who has to go. We can find a replacement for Green in the draft (at a much cheaper price).
6. Resign Jabar Gaffney - I read an article which said that he wanted to return and if we get him at a good price he is worth it. I remember him have pretty good timing and rhythm with Brandy. I do not see him dropping too many TD's and wanting to face Brandy in the huddle
7. Yes the Safety situation could be a mess but BB knows how important the position is and he will make sure it will not be a weakness. I think they will use there first pick on a Safety (Unless someone falls or there is no value where they pick) plus if they do make a splash on the FA market I think it will be at Safety. With multiple first day picks and the need BB may part with a draft pick to get one of these RFA to shore up an important spot. The should resign the Sanders and Rodney I love but after another big injury I am unsure he will be able to comeback as productive as before. Just throwing this out there but Lawyer Milloy if a FA this year.......Just kidding !!!
8. I agree with a lot of those name that have to go, I know we all have our loyalties but this is about winning games and is a business. Jordan if we could get back cheep would be alright but I think the law firm could act as the third RB (with Faulk as our 3rd down) and Morris and Maroney fighting out as the starter. A couple of others we would keep for depth but some need to go.
9. Agree but will they be willing to restructure to win??? I hope so.
10. Totally agree with resigning Evans and Woods.

2009 Draft:
I love you first pick as BB will love his versatility but may be too tall for a corner. Connor Barwin is growing on me a a lot the more I have read about this kid keeps getting better. I do not think that Mack will slide that far down unless Max Unger from Oregon overtakes him as the best Center in the draft. In the third round (86) instead of a RB I might take a RT as I mention above someone to push Kaczer this year and be there for 2010. I would take a RB in the 5th somewhere or after (R. Torian, Hightower and Hillis were all drafted 5th or later) Punter I cannot argue with with but I hope with Brady back we will not be punting too many times

As for your long snapper my buddy is the snapper for the BC Lions of the CFL and I tried over the Christmas break to get him to drive down with me to snap in the parking lot of Gillette Stadium until BB (or more likely security)come out to see why two jackasses are out in the parking lot snapping the ball