Is this a viable way to handle the QB situation?

[ctpatsfan77]

Can only renegotiate a new contract till 4pm July 15th. After that it is only a 1yr franchise deal and can not be extended till after the regular season.

If I understand things correctly (Miguel?), that only applies to the team that franchises him; the Patriots could trade him to another team, who renegotiate a longer-term deal.

 

[Synovia]

Nothing that Cassel can do in the short-term can raise that evaluation, but he can sure do a lot to damage it (<cough> Derek Anderson <cough>).
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Cassell and Derek anderson are hardly comparable. There were red flags all over anderson.


Cassel 2008:
327/516 63.4% 3647 yds, 21 TD 11 INT 47 Sacks
Anderson 2007:
298/527 56.5% 3787 yds, 29 TD 19 INT 14 Sacks


56% is not an NFL QB, and 20 Ints in a year is just not acceptable. They're completely different looking players.


Now, Cassel does have one glaring red flag, and thats the Sacks. The big thing about that though, is that while Cassel was still getting sacked a bit at the end of the season, he was getting sacked a lot less than at the beginning, and it was mostly against better teams. Cassel was sacked 25 times in the first 6 games, and 22 in the last 10 games.

 

[JSn]

Now, Cassel does have one glaring red flag, and thats the Sacks. The big thing about that though, is that while Cassel was still getting sacked a bit at the end of the season, he was getting sacked a lot less than at the beginning, and it was mostly against better teams. Cassel was sacked 25 times in the first 6 games, and 22 in the last 10 games.

And frankly, despite being sacked, it rarely resulted in turnovers. Take away the Steelers game it maybe only resulted in a turnover ONCE.

I suspect this stat will not scare away the "hire and fire" crowd.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Cassel and Anderson are almost the anti-comparible

Anderson throws a great deep ball but struggles with touch and sucks on short routs. Also, his ability to read defenses deteriorated as time has gone along.

Cassel has improved in these areas and is weakest on the deep ball.

 

[BradyManny]

Thats a silly way to look at it. Points per game is as much a measure of the defense as it is the offense. The Patriots offense this year had drastically worse starting field position than the team last year because the defense was so bad.


According to DVOA, the Patriots offense last year was the best ever, at 42.6% DVOA. The Colts offense has traditionally been about 30%. The best teams this year were around 23%. Now, I don't think there was any way the Patriots offense wasn't going to have some amount of decline. I'd guess they would have been 35% or so this year, slightly better than the 2006 colts. Best offense in the league by a large margin.

They finished this year at 15%, good for 9th in the league. If you use weighted, which weighs the end of the season more than the beginning, they were at 21.7, good for 5th in the league. Theres a very good chance, that with Cassell as a starter next year, they're the best offense in the league.


Yes, right now Cassel is still a drop off from 100% healthy Brady, but if Brady can't start immediately, and Cassel plays 4 preseason games and 6 more regular season starts, I'm not sure that can still be said. If Brady can't move in the pocket like he used to, then I doubt that it can.

This defense, until Adalius Thomas got hurt, was only giving up 1 more point a game than last year. Even after the horrible weeks of defense that followed Thomas injury, the team settled in only allowing 2 more points a game. So, essentially, despite all the bytching and moaning, the 2008 defense was nearly as effective as the 2007 defense. Field position isn't just dictated by the defense, its as much dictated by the offense - a team that scores TDs nearly every possession and never has to punt (a la the 2007 Patriots) will have better field position.

So take that out of the equation.

As for weighted DVOA, LOL at weighting it to weigh the end of the season more than the beginning. That's very selective considering how opponents at the end of the year were a joke, including one team that hardly even showed up (Arizona). Even then, the DVOA went from 42.6 to 15, thats a huge drop off, you yourself said it would've been at least 35% with Brady.

Really, the Keep Cassel crowd annoys me not just b/c they want to get rid of Brady, but b/c they don't see they'd be drastically overpaying for Matt Cassel. There are two options for who quarterbacks our team in both the near and distance future, and they are Tom Brady and Kevin O'Connell. Matt Cassel is about to get a bloated contract and it isn't going to be from the New England Patriots.

 

[Miguel]

If I understand things correctly (Miguel?), that only applies to the team that franchises him; the Patriots could trade him to another team, who renegotiate a longer-term deal.

In order for the Pats to be able to trade Cassel after July 15th Cassel would have had to sign the tender before then.

 

[BradyManny]

In order for the Pats to be able to trade Cassel after July 15th Cassel would have had to sign the tender before then.

Interesting.

Would the Pats have the chance at that point to revoke the tag if he doesn't sign it? Not that I think it would get that far. Cassel should sign the tender the minute its offered.

 

[mgteich]

1) We cannot afford $14M of cap money for Cassel for more than a couple of weeks. We need to re-sign free agents or replace them (e.g. Hochstein, Wright, Sanders, Sanders, Evans, Paxton, Hanson, Harrison, Williams). Even jags cost cap money, although veteran jags don't cost much. We also need to pay for rookies and have monies left for IR, the Practice Squad and replacement players during the season.

2) I expect Cassel to be on someone else's roster by mid March. We will get what we can. If Cassel doesn't cooperate, we can threaten, but unless we want to wait until the draft, we can end up with nothing (if he doesn't sign). I expect Cassel to work with the team and have a deal done before one week of free agency is over.

3) I support the signing of a free agent QB before Training Camp, as I did last year. Brady IS INJURED. Even if he is 100% for Game One, we still need a real backup. The cap cost could be between $2M and $6M; in any case, a vast savings from $14M. It is just possible that Belichick believes that O'Connell or Gutierrez can handle the situation if it arises. If so, In Bill We Trust.

4) I do NOT expect any major free agent signings or trades. However, we should have the cap monies available in case an opporunity is there. Also, we need cap money even if we want even a mid-level free agent or two.

5) We do have a critical need to extend who we can. This may take cap money. The potential list is large: Seymour, Wilfork, Green, DE Smith, Vrabel, Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Neal, Mankins, Faulk, Watson, and TE Thomas. All are in their contract years. Also, we could be considering extensions for Light and/or Brady.

Draft needs will be greatly affected by extensions or the lack of extensions. Perhaps we can expect to draft guards and expect them to start. That is not the case for defensive linemen. I could see us drafting two defensive linemen on the first day of the draft if there are no extensions, and none if all of our line is extended and re-signed.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Lets assume for a moment the real possibility that Brady will not be ready to start the season.

Let also recognized Brady is only signed 2010 not 2014 as one poster seems to think.

That means we need to worry about both 2009 and 2011.

One solution is to sign Matt Cassel long term and sever ties with Brady.

Another would be to extend and restructure Brady's contract to save the Patriots cap space in 2009 so they can afford a one year deal with Cassel.

But getting rid of Cassel and keeping Brady while we have question marks at QB for both 2009 and 2011 while it may appeal to many fans hearts makes no sense.

 

[Deus Irae]

The day Cassel is traded is going to be a great day, just because these ridiculous @!$%$% threads will finally cease. It's getting to the point where I'm about to beg Belichick to just cut the kid now, so people will stop with this nonsense.

 

[Synovia]

As for weighted DVOA, LOL at weighting it to weigh the end of the season more than the beginning. That's very selective considering how opponents at the end of the year were a joke, including one team that hardly even showed up (Arizona). Even then, the DVOA went from 42.6 to 15, thats a huge drop off, you yourself said it would've been at least 35% with Brady.

The reason I use weighted is that it seems clear to me that Cassel in week 1 and Cassel in week 17 were hardly the same player. Do you disagree?

 

[JoeSixPat]

capwise, I think so. No one is going to have $14M open. He's gotta be traded before the season starts, or hes staying.

If Brady isn't ready to go, and Cassel is the starter at the beginning of the season, its going to be his job to lose.

With many teams not spending up to the cap these days, clearing space on the cap could actually be done -

But whether a team would start fresh with a new QB once the season has begun is another question. That's what I don't view as feasible.

At best I think the most one could expect is that, like the Jets, a team trade before the season starts. Well after the draft and well into the pre-season. They were able to clear $12 million in space for Favre even after a big off season spending spree.

Waiting until after the draft doesn't overly harm our ability to trade Cassel - and it gives us some insurance in case we think we need him in 2009 - we'd just be looking at 2010 draft picks instead of those for this year.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, if Brady extends, we would be able to pay a backup QB $14M for one year. Personally, I don't think that Belichick would pay a backup QB $14M under these circumstances. A backup QB is worth a certain amount of cap money to Belichick. It could be as much as $6M in current circumstances. However, I don't think that the number is $14M. And just BTW, I don't see Belichick extending Brady until he is healthy. That would be very poor business judgement.

Cassel simply isn't part of the equation. Th franchise tag isn't for backups. We will get what we can and move on.

Lets assume for a moment the real possibility that Brady will not be ready to start the season.

Let also recognized Brady is only signed 2010 not 2014 as one poster seems to think.

That means we need to worry about both 2009 and 2011.

One solution is to sign Matt Cassel long term and sever ties with Brady.

Another would be to extend and restructure Brady's contract to save the Patriots cap space in 2009 so they can afford a one year deal with Cassel.

But getting rid of Cassel and keeping Brady while we have question marks at QB for both 2009 and 2011 while it may appeal to many fans hearts makes no sense.

 

[BradyManny]

The reason I use weighted is that it seems clear to me that Cassel in week 1 and Cassel in week 17 were hardly the same player. Do you disagree?

Unlike most forumers, I had faith in Cassel in the get-go. When Brady went out injured, I thought this team was still good enough to win the Super Bowl given the competition around the league, and I thought they would finish around 12-4. I also thought Cassel was impressive right from the get-go filling in. I agree he improved nearly every week, but he was also playing some crummy teams at the end of the season, and to weigh it towards that is an unfair analysis.

 

[Synovia]

Another would be to extend and restructure Brady's contract to save the Patriots cap space in 2009 so they can afford a one year deal with Cassel.
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Right, but its ridiculous to give a QB an extension when you're not even sure he can play.

 

[Synovia]

I agree he improved nearly every week, but he was also playing some crummy teams at the end of the season, and to weigh it towards that is an unfair analysis.

I agree. DVOA adjusts for defenses though, and he still got drastically better.

At the beginning he was playing poorly against bad defenses, and even worse against good ones. At the end he was playing extremely well against bad defenses and about average against good ones.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that Cassel is as much a distraction to the Front Office as it is to us.
===========================
PLEASE READ THREE TIMES AND DELETE
Cassel is not now part of the 2009 team.
He never will be.
The patriots will get what they can for Cassel and move on.
===================================
The backup quarterback situation may be a concern, depending on what Belichick thinks about the readiness of O'Connell and/or Gutierrez. If neither is considered ready then look for us to sign a veteran, BEFORE Training Camp, especially if Brady isn't ready for camp.

The day Cassel is traded is going to be a great day, just because these ridiculous @!$%$% threads will finally cease. It's getting to the point where I'm about to beg Belichick to just cut the kid now, so people will stop with this nonsense.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Right, but its ridiculous to give a QB an extension when you're not even sure he can play.

Not if it doesn't include much new bonus money and is mostly salary.

 

[Miguel]

Interesting.

Would the Pats have the chance at that point to revoke the tag if he doesn't sign it? Not that I think it would get that far. Cassel should sign the tender the minute its offered.

Yes, but if they withdraw the tender after July 22nd and Cassel signs a big contract with another team the Patriots will not get a comp pick in 2010.

Source: Corey Simon and the Eagles in 2006.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think that Cassel is as much a distraction to the Front Office as it is to us.
===========================
PLEASE READ THREE TIMES AND DELETE
Cassel is not now part of the 2009 team.
He never will be.
The patriots will get what they can for Cassel and move on.
===================================
The backup quarterback situation may be a concern, depending on what Belichick thinks about the readiness of O'Connell and/or Gutierrez. If neither is considered ready then look for us to sign a veteran, BEFORE Training Camp, especially if Brady isn't ready for camp.

I agree, but this nonsense his being posted time and again despite Ian's specific wishes.