Is this a viable way to handle the QB situation?

[JSn]

OK, this doesn't fit the other threads as I'm not leaning one way or the other.

What I'm proposing here hinges entirely on there being genuine uncertainty about Brady's health. I'm only wondering about this based on that hypothetical. I'm absolutely in the Brady stays camp if he's good to go.

On to the scenario.

----------------------

Franchise Cassel, let him sign it.
Build through the draft.
Extend important pieces where possible, and maybe grab a couple of JAG FA's for competition. The assumption here is that The Pats are in good shape to do some nice FA deals in the uncapped year, unless the draft proves solid and last year's pick up's show improvement.

This allows a proper evaluation of the QB's and proper time to decide on a trade opportunity and maybe even which QB to trade (based on inside knowledge). Whichever one was traded would result in cap relief and further ability to negotiate with our own FA's.

----------------------

I'm taking the heart out of the equation and just looking at sensible options. The Patriots have to consider their spending power in an uncapped year (not that they have to go hog-wild, but can they if needs-be). They also need to decide which QB best represents the future interests of the franchise based on skill, durability, longevity, and what can be gained from trading.

In that perspective, it's really just a value break-down.

So I'm wondering, if Brady is at all uncertain, do you franchise Cassel and keep him on the roster, deferring trade musings in spite of teams ripe for the picking who need a QB? Is that more important than getting picks and putting Tom out there if he's not quite ready?

 

[dhamz]

I see that as possible.

If Brady isn't ready to go, I'd be surprised with any situation except Matt Cassel as the starting QB for the Patriots on opening day 2009 playing under the 1 year franchise tender.

 

[Sicilian]

All kind of depends on the actual cap numbers which we don't know. I feel like, barring further major injuries, they could probably compete just as well if not better than this year without any big moves. It doesn't give us the BEST chance to win, but trading Cassel and not having Brady healthy would certainly send us the other way.

What happens to the cap number on Cassel if he's traded at the deadline? Like, keep him for the first three or four weeks, then when Brady is ready deal him. Are we still on the hook for all of his $14m franchise number?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

All kind of depends on the actual cap numbers which we don't know. I feel like, barring further major injuries, they could probably compete just as well if not better than this year without any big moves. It doesn't give us the BEST chance to win, but trading Cassel and not having Brady healthy would certainly send us the other way.

What happens to the cap number on Cassel if he's traded at the deadline? Like, keep him for the first three or four weeks, then when Brady is ready deal him. Are we still on the hook for all of his $14m franchise number?

Since the franchise tender is a guaranteed salary, the Patriots would be on the hook for 1/17 of the franchise tender for each week he's on the roster. Once he's traded, the remainder of the salary would come off the cap.

The other factor that's missing from JSn's assessment is Kevin O'Connell. Physically, he's a Cassel or maybe even a Cassel+, but where is he in terms of football IQ?

 

[Synovia]

What happens to the cap number on Cassel if he's traded at the deadline? Like, keep him for the first three or four weeks, then when Brady is ready deal him. Are we still on the hook for all of his $14m franchise number?

capwise, I think so. No one is going to have $14M open. He's gotta be traded before the season starts, or hes staying.

If Brady isn't ready to go, and Cassel is the starter at the beginning of the season, its going to be his job to lose.

 

[Tunescribe]

I say: get the picks for Cassel while we can. Between Brady, O'Connell and possibly a journeyman veteran game-manager type, things still have a good chance of shaking down suitably at QB without Cassel, even if Tom is not 100 percent in August. I really do believe that O'Connell could be a good one.

 

[Synovia]

The other factor that's missing from JSn's assessment is Kevin O'Connell. Physically, he's a Cassel or maybe even a Cassel+, but where is he in terms of football IQ?

Yeah, and physically, Kyle Boller is better than all of them. The physical is so small of a percentage of what makes a QB successful. The mental is much more important, and much harder to judge. Cassel looks to have it, whereas despite the fact that O'Connell has looked decent, its more than likely he doesnt (just because most guys drafted at the position dont)

 

[JSn]

The other factor that's missing from JSn's assessment is Kevin O'Connell. Physically, he's a Cassel or maybe even a Cassel+, but where is he in terms of football IQ?

Yeah, there just isn't much to go on, and Cassel might be a good measuring rod for the value of keeping a rookie on the bench for a few years under a great QB. To my knowledge that was kind of status quo in earlier times in the NFL.

There is something to be said for Kevin being #2 all along, despite being a rookie. Maybe Bill will drink some crazy stuff and deal BOTH Cassel and Brady and start Kevin.

Man, I'd have to drink some crazy stuff too, to cope with news like that. lol

 

[BradyManny]

So I'm wondering, if Brady is at all uncertain, do you franchise Cassel and keep him on the roster, deferring trade musings in spite of teams ripe for the picking who need a QB? Is that more important than getting picks and putting Tom out there if he's not quite ready?

I don't think we can afford to keep Cassel on the roster.

There's a larger point that no one has really brought up b/c we were all so thankful for Cassel's great play during the season - and that's how big a drop off there would be between Cassel and O'Connell. It's all about value.

While Cassel's play was admirable, the drop off from the preceding record setting season was otherwise unprecedented. A loss of 12 points per game, 5 more losses, 29 less TDs, 3 more INTs, 1200 less passing yards, QB rating drop of 28, 5% drop in completion percentage, 13% more of the yardage coming from YAC.

What I'm saying is that Cassel's value is perhaps a little inflated right now. There's no doubt he's shown he has strong decision making, strong accuracy and will make a good starting QB somewhere in the league. But given the cast of weapons this offense has, is the drop off between Cassel and Kevin O'Connel worth 14 million dollars?

Tag Cassel, trade him, get the picks, deal with the 2009 QB situation without even considering him. The guy earned the right to start in the league anyway, so its win win if we deal him.

 

[JSn]

Yeah, and physically, Kyle Boller is better than all of them. The physical is so small of a percentage of what makes a QB successful. The mental is much more important, and much harder to judge. Cassel looks to have it, whereas despite the fact that O'Connell has looked decent, its more than likely he doesnt (just because most guys drafted at the position dont)

Yeah, if said to you "meet the greatest QB of all time"...

 

[tanked_as_usual]

if the pats tag cassel, they don't have a choice to 'let him sign it or not'

if the pats tag him, they will trade him.........that's it

the next question will be 'what if brady........?'

the pats will add a vet QB to the roster as insurance, but the bottom line is that the pats had enough regard for kevin o'connell to make him a 3rd round pick which is much higher than any other QB they have ever drafted.......he has been in the program for a year and will be ready to execute the same way brady was ready to execute after a year and cassel after a few years......

the bottom line is that if cassel could execute a decent offensive set for this team, then so can o'connell..........

cassel is gone and that's that

 

[ctpatsfan77]

capwise, I think so. No one is going to have $14M open. He's gotta be traded before the season starts, or hes staying.

If Brady isn't ready to go, and Cassel is the starter at the beginning of the season, its going to be his job to lose.

The team can renegotiate a new contract with Cassel; they're not obligated to honor the tender. (Otherwise, they'd just be renting Cassel for a year.)

That said, I don't think the Patriots want Cassel still on the team at the franchise salary come the start of TC.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Since the franchise tender is a guaranteed salary, the Patriots would be on the hook for 1/17 of the franchise tender for each week he's on the roster. Once he's traded, the remainder of the salary would come off the cap.

The other factor that's missing from JSn's assessment is Kevin O'Connell. Physically, he's a Cassel or maybe even a Cassel+, but where is he in terms of football IQ?

I respect this opinion but definitely disagree with it. If he was a Cassel+ we would have saw him for 16 games last year.

Good post Jsn...interesting...it just rots me to think of watching this team without Brady under centre next year, no disrespect at all to Cassel

 

[Patsrock]

On the possible uncapped year, teams are not going to be able to spend like drunken sailors. There are restrictions. I am expecting the Pats to be in the final 8.


Go to page 93. Article XXI final 8 plan.


http://www.nflplayers.com/images/fck/NFL COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT 2006 - 2012.pdf

 

[Patsrock]

The team can renegotiate a new contract with Cassel; they're not obligated to honor the tender. (Otherwise, they'd just be renting Cassel for a year.)

That said, I don't think the Patriots want Cassel still on the team at the franchise salary come the start of TC.

Can only renegotiate a new contract till 4pm July 15th. After that it is only a 1yr franchise deal and can not be extended till after the regular season.

 

[Synovia]

I

While Cassel's play was admirable, the drop off from the preceding record setting season was otherwise unprecedented. A loss of 12 points per game, 5 more losses, 29 less TDs, 3 more INTs, 1200 less passing yards, QB rating drop of 28, 5% drop in completion percentage, 13% more of the yardage coming from YAC.

Thats a silly way to look at it. Points per game is as much a measure of the defense as it is the offense. The Patriots offense this year had drastically worse starting field position than the team last year because the defense was so bad.


According to DVOA, the Patriots offense last year was the best ever, at 42.6% DVOA. The Colts offense has traditionally been about 30%. The best teams this year were around 23%. Now, I don't think there was any way the Patriots offense wasn't going to have some amount of decline. I'd guess they would have been 35% or so this year, slightly better than the 2006 colts. Best offense in the league by a large margin.

They finished this year at 15%, good for 9th in the league. If you use weighted, which weighs the end of the season more than the beginning, they were at 21.7, good for 5th in the league. Theres a very good chance, that with Cassell as a starter next year, they're the best offense in the league.


Yes, right now Cassel is still a drop off from 100% healthy Brady, but if Brady can't start immediately, and Cassel plays 4 preseason games and 6 more regular season starts, I'm not sure that can still be said. If Brady can't move in the pocket like he used to, then I doubt that it can.

 

[Metaphors]

I say: get the picks for Cassel while we can. Between Brady, O'Connell and possibly a journeyman veteran game-manager type, things still have a good chance of shaking down suitably at QB without Cassel, even if Tom is not 100 percent in August. I really do believe that O'Connell could be a good one.

:agree: Unless you believe the Pats will need Cassel long-term, his value in a trade will never be higher. I guarantee you that GMs are suspicious that Cassel could be a one-year wonder. Cassel is positioned as a young QB with the stuff to lead your team to the SB and with an elite ceiling. Nothing that Cassel can do in the short-term can raise that evaluation, but he can sure do a lot to damage it (<cough> Derek Anderson <cough>).

If you can get a 1st round pick for Cassel, you surround him with bubble wrap and ship him next-day air. If you can get an early 2nd round pick, you negotiate a little but you still take it. Anything later than that you can afford to hold onto him and wait for an injury.

Agree with your assessment of the 2009 QB situation. I also believe O'Connell will eventually be a solid starting QB. If he isn't ready to fill in a little early this year, there are plenty of QBs that can babysit the position until Brady is ready to go.

 

[ALP]

On the possible uncapped year, teams are not going to be able to spend like drunken sailors. There are restrictions. I am expecting the Pats to be in the final 8.


Go to page 93. Article XXI final 8 plan.


http://www.nflplayers.com/images/fck/NFL COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT 2006 - 2012.pdf

those are some wierd rules

 

[BradyManny]

:agree: Unless you believe the Pats will need Cassel long-term, his value in a trade will never be higher. I guarantee you that GMs are suspicious that Cassel could be a one-year wonder. Cassel is positioned as a young QB with the stuff to lead your team to the SB and with an elite ceiling. Nothing that Cassel can do in the short-term can raise that evaluation, but he can sure do a lot to damage it (<cough> Derek Anderson <cough>).

If you can get a 1st round pick for Cassel, you surround him with bubble wrap and ship him next-day air. If you can get an early 2nd round pick, you negotiate a little but you still take it. Anything later than that you can afford to hold onto him and wait for an injury.

Agree with your assessment of the 2009 QB situation. I also believe O'Connell will eventually be a solid starting QB. If he isn't ready to fill in a little early this year, there are plenty of QBs that can babysit the position until Brady is ready to go.

Co-sign. Well put.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I respect this opinion but definitely disagree with it. If he was a Cassel+ we would have saw him for 16 games last year.

If he were a Cassel+ mentally--which I didn't even try to argue--I'd agree with you. But I was referring only to physical talent.