Tag Archives: NFC

Week 15 NFL Playoff Picture: Six Teams Can Clinch Playoff Spots

John Morgan
December 15, 2016 at 7:00 am ET

Heading into Week 15 only the Dallas Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot. After this weekend that is bound to change. Six other teams, including the New England Patriots, can punch a ticket to the post-season this weekend.

In the AFC the Jets, Jaguars and Browns have been eliminated. San Diego and Cincinnati are all but done. And after last week’s losses the Colts and Bills are comatose and on life support. The Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders are going to be playing in January. That leaves the Steelers, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins vying for two post-season positions while Houston and Tennessee battle for the AFC South title.

Over in the NFC Dallas has clinched a playoff spot while on the other end the Niners, Rams and Bears are looking ahead to the draft. Four other teams – the Eagles, Panthers, Saints and Cardinals – are all but mathematically eliminated. With Seattle virtually assured of winning the NFC West that leaves seven teams going for four playoff slots.

I know ties happen – as Donovan McNabb and Jay Gruden now realize – but for the sake of clarity (and sanity) I’ll avoid bringing those possibilities up.

 

AFC East

11-2 New England Patriots
Currently AFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with three games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: at 8-5 Broncos; vs 4-9 Jets; at 8-5 Dolphins.
– Can clinch division title with either a win or a Miami loss.
– Can clinch a first round bye with a win.
– Can clinch a first round bye with (a) a Miami loss, plus either (b) a Pittsburgh loss.
– Can clinch a first round bye with (a) a Miami loss, plus (b) a Kansas City win.
– 99% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

8-5 Miami Dolphins
Currently AFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-18: at 4-9 Jets; at 6-7 Bills; vs 11-2 Patriots.
– Eliminated from division title with either a loss or a New England win.
– Eliminated from #5 slot with both (a) a loss, plus (b) a Kansas City win.
– 40% chance of making the playoffs.

6-7 Buffalo Bills
Currently AFC #11 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 0-13 Browns; vs 8-5 Dolphins; at 4-9 Jets.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) loss to Browns plus Miami wins; or (b) loss to Browns plus Baltimore wins; or (c) Broncos win.
– 2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

AFC West

10-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Currently AFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: vs 7-6 Titans; vs 8-5 Broncos; at 5-8 Chargers.
– Clinch a playoff spot with a win.
– Clinch a playoff spot with (a) a Broncos loss, plus either (b) a Baltimore or Pittsburgh loss.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with (a) a win, plus (b) a Miami loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a New England win.
– 74% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

10-3 Oakland Raiders
Currently AFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 5-8 Chargers; vs 6-7 Colts; at 8-5 Broncos.
– Clinch a playoff spot with a win.
– Clinch a playoff spot with (a) a Miami loss, plus (b) either a Pittsburgh or Baltimore loss, plus (c) either a Denver or Kansas City loss.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with (a) a win, plus (b) a Denver loss.
– 25% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

8-5 Denver Broncos
Currently AFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 31-8: vs 11-2 Patriots; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 10-3 Raiders.
– Eliminated from division title with either (a) a loss to Patriots, or (b) a Kansas City win.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with both (a) a loss to Patriots, plus (b) an Oakland win.
– 1% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 38% chance of making the playoffs.

5-8 San Diego Chargers
Currently AFC #13 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: vs 10-3 Raiders; at 0-13 Browns; vs 10-3 Chiefs.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with either (a) a Miami win, or (b) a Denver win, or (c) wins by both Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
– cannot win the AFC West.
– less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.

 

AFC North

8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently AFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 12-26-1: at 5-7-1 Bengals; vs 7-6 Ravens; vs 0-13 Browns.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) a loss, or (b) a New England win.
– Eliminated from first round bye with (a) a loss, plus (b) either a Kansas City, Oakland or Denver win.
– 80% chance of winning AFC North.
– 87% chance of making the playoffs.

7-6 Baltimore Ravens
Currently AFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-20-1: vs 5-8 Eagles; at 8-5 Steelers; at 5-7-1 Bengals.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a loss.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a win by either Kansas City, Oakland or Denver.
– 20% chance of winning AFC North.
– 30% chance of making the playoffs.

5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Currently AFC #12 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-20-1: vs 8-5 Steelers; at 7-6 Texans; vs 7-6 Ravens.
– Eliminated from division title with a Baltimore win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss to Pittsburgh.
– Eliminated from playoffs with both (a) a Baltimore win, plus either (b) a Miami or Denver win.
– less than 1% chance of winning AFC North or making the playoffs.

 

AFC South

7-6 Houston Texans
Currently AFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 14-24-1: at vs 2-11 Jaguars; vs 5-7-1 Bengals; at 7-6 Titans.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a loss.
– Eliminated from number three seed with either a Kansas City, Oakland or Denver win.
– 78% chance of winning AFC South.
– 79% chance of making the playoffs.

7-6 Tennessee Titans
Currently AFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 10-3 Chiefs; at 2-11 Jaguars; vs 7-6 Texans.
– Eliminated from first round bye with either (a) a loss, or (b) an Oakland win, or (c) a Denver win.
– Eliminated from number three seed with both (a) a loss, and (b) a Pittsburgh win.
– 21% chance of winning AFC South.
– 23% chance of making the playoffs.

6-7 Indianapolis Colts
Currently AFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 7-6 Vikings; at 10-3 Raiders; vs 2-11 Jaguars.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss, plus either a Houston or Tennessee win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Miami win, plus (c) either a Houston or Tennessee win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Houston win, plus (c) either a Baltimore or Denver win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Tennessee win, plus (c) either a Baltimore or Denver win.
– 1% chance of winning AFC South.
– 2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

NFC East

11-1 Dallas Cowboys
Currently NFC #1 seed.
Remaining Opponents 22-17: vs 8-5 Buccaneers; vs 9-4 Lions; at 5-8 Eagles.
– Clinch division and first round bye with (a) a win, plus (b) Giants lose to Detroit.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with either a win, or an Atlanta loss.
– 95% chance of winning the NFC East.
– Cowboys clinched a playoff spot in Week 13.

9-4 New York Giants
Currently NFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 9-4 Lions; at 5-8 Eagles; at 7-5-1 Redskins.
– Clinch playoff spot with (a) win vs Detroit, plus (b) losses by Green Bay, Minnesota and Washington.
– Eliminated from first round bye with loss to Detroit.
– Eliminated from division title with both a loss, plus Dallas win.
– 5% chance of winning NFC East.
– 79% chance of making playoffs.

7-5-1 Washington Redskins
Currently NFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-22: vs 5-8 Panthers; at 3-10 Bears; vs 9-4 Giants.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with both a loss, plus a Detroit loss to Giants.
– Can not win NFC East.
– 49% chance of making playoffs as wild card.

5-8 Philadelphia Eagles
Currently NFC #13 seed.
Remaining Opponents : at 7-6 Ravens; vs 9-4 Giants; vs 11-2 Cowboys.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a win by either Washington, Atlanta, Green Bay or Minnesota.
– Can not win NFC East.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs as #6 seed.

 

NFC North

9-4 Detroit Lions
Currently NFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 27-12: at 9-4 Giants; at 11-2 Cowboys; vs 7-6 Packers.
– Clinch NFC North with both a win, plus a Green Bay loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with both a loss, plus a Dallas win.
– 73% chance of winning NFC North.
– 80% chance of making playoffs.

7-6 Minnesota Vikings
Currently NFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 16-22: vs 6-7 Colts; at 7-6 Packers; vs 3-10 Bears.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss or a Detroit win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) Tampa Bay and Atlanta wins, plus (c) either a Washington or New York win.
– 5% chance of winning NFC North.
– 12% chance of making playoffs.

7-6 Green Bay Packers
Currently NFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 3-10 Bears; vs 7-6 Packers; at 9-4 Lions.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss or a Detroit win.
– Eliminated from first round bye with both a loss, plus a win by either Seattle, Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from #3 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Seattle win, plus (c) a win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) both Detroit and Washington wins.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) Detroit, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Washington all win.
– 22% chance of winning NFC North.
– 26% chance of making playoffs.

 

NFC West

8-4-1 Seattle Seahawks
Currently NFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 10-28-1: vs 4-9 Rams; vs 5-7-1 Cardinals; at 1-12 49ers.
– Clinch NFC West with either a win, or an Arizona loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a Dallas win.
– 99% chance of winning NFC West.

5-7-1 Arizona Cardinals
Currently NFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-21-1: vs 5-8 Saints; at 8-4-1 Seahawks; at 4-9 Rams.
– Eliminated from division title with either a loss or a Seattle win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by Seattle, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
– 1% chance of making the playoffs.

 

NFC South

8-5 Atlanta Falcons
Currently NFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 11-28: vs 1-12 49ers; at 5-8 Panthers; vs 5-8 Saints.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a Dallas win.
– 75% chance of winning NFC South.
– 91% chance of making playoffs.

8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Currently NFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-18: at 11-2 Cowboys; at 5-8 Saints; vs 5-8 Panthers.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss to Dallas.
– 25% chance of winning NFC South.
– 58% chance of making playoffs.

5-8 New Orleans Saints
Currently NFC #11 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-17-1: at 5-7-1 Cardinals; vs 8-5 Buccaneers; at 8-5 Falcons.
– Eliminated from division title with win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by either (a) Atlanta and Tampa Bay, or (b) Atlanta and Washington, or (c) Tampa Bay and Washington.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by (a) Minnesota, plus (b) Green Bay, plus (c) either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs.

5-8 Carolina Panthers
Currently NFC #12 seed.
Remaining Opponents 23-15-1: at 7-5-1 Redskins; vs 8-5 Falcons; at 8-5 Buccaneers
– Eliminated from division title with win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by both Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by (a) Minnesota, plus (b) Green Bay, plus (c) either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs.

 

Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture: Pats, Seahawks, Cowboys Can Clinch Division Titles

John Morgan
December 11, 2016 at 10:00 am ET

It is December and we are now in the fourth quarter of the 2016 NFL regular season.

That means it is now late enough in the year that we can talk about playoff races.

Heading into Week 14 there are four teams that have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs: the Browns, Jaguars, Jets and Forty Niners. After this weekend six others will most likely officially be out of it: the Bengals, Chargers, Bears, Rams, Panthers and Eagles. The Cardinals, Saints and Bills are already on life support and could be declared dead very soon.

That leaves nineteen teams with varying possibilities fighting for twelve playoff spots. Here is a look at the current status of those teams heading into Sunday’s games.

 

AFC East

10-2 New England Patriots
Currently AFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 25-23: vs 7-5 Ravens; at 8-4 Broncos; vs 3-9 Jets; at 7-5 Dolphins.
– Can clinch division plus first round bye with (a) win vs Ravens, plus (b) Dolphins loss to Cardinals, plus (c) Steelers loss to Bills.
– Can clinch division and #3 seed with (a) win vs Ravens, plus (b) Dolphins loss to Cardinals.
– 98% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

7-5 Miami Dolphins
Currently AFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 24-23-1: vs 5-6-1 Cardinals; at 3-9 Jets; at 6-6 Bills; vs 10-2 Patriots.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss.
– Eliminated from division title with (a) loss to Cardinals, plus (b) Patriots win vs Ravens.
– 2% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 24% chance of making the playoffs.
– 76% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC West

10-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Currently AFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-17: vs 6-6 Titans; vs 8-4 Broncos; at 5-7 Chargers.
– 73% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

10-3 Oakland Raiders
Currently AFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-17: at 5-7 Chargers; vs 6-6 Colts; at 8-4 Broncos.
– 23% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

8-4 Denver Broncos
Currently AFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 36-14: at 6-6 Titans; vs 10-2 Patriots; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 10-3 Raiders.
– 4% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 58% chance of making the playoffs.
– 42% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC North

7-5 Baltimore Ravens
Currently AFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 26-21-1: at 10-2 Patriots; vs 5-7 Eagles; at 7-5 Steelers; at 4-7-1 Bengals.
– 37% chance of winning AFC North.
– 42% chance of making the playoffs.
– 58% chance of missing the playoffs.

7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently AFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-30-1: at 6-6 Bills; at 4-7-1 Bengals; vs 7-5 Ravens; vs 0-12 Browns.
– 62% chance of winning AFC North.
– 68% chance of making the playoffs.
– 32% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC South

6-6 Houston Texans
Currently AFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-29-1: at 6-6 Colts; vs 2-10 Jaguars; vs 4-7-1 Bengals; at 6-6 Titans.
– 59% chance of winning AFC South.
– 41% chance of missing the playoffs.

6-6 Indianapolis Colts
Currently AFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 6-6 Texans; at 6-6 Vikings; at 10-3 Raiders; vs 2-10 Jaguars.
– 28% chance of winning AFC South.
– 72% chance of missing the playoffs.

6-6 Tennessee Titans
Currently AFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents: vs 8-4 Broncos; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 2-10 Jaguars; vs 6-6 Texans.
– 13% chance of winning AFC South.
– 86% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

NFC East

11-1 Dallas Cowboys
Currently NFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 28-20: at 8-4 Giants; vs 7-5 Buccaneers; vs 8-4 Lions; at 5-7 Eagles.
– Can clinch division plus number one seed with (a) win at Giants, plus (b) Seahawks loss to Packers, plus (c) Lions loss to Bears.
– Can clinch division and bye with (a) win at Giants, plus either (b)Seahawks loss to Packers, or (c) lions loss to Bears.
– Can clinch division and #3 seed with win at Giants.
– Can clinch a playoff spot and #5 seed despite a loss, with either (a) Bucs loss to Saints, or (b) Falcons loss to Rams.
– 98% chance of winning the NFC East.
– Cowboys clinched a playoff spot in Week 13.

8-4 New York Giants
Currently NFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 30-17-1: vs 11-1 Cowboys; vs 8-4 Lions; at 5-7 Eagles; at 6-5-1 Redskins.
– 2% chance of winning NFC East.
– 66% chance of making playoffs.
– 34% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from division title with loss to Cowboys.

6-5-1 Washington Redskins
Currently NFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-28: at 5-7 Eagles; vs 4-8 Panthers; at 3-9 Bears; vs 8-4 Giants.
– Cannot win NFC East.
– 47% chance of making playoffs as wild card.
– 53% chance of missing playoffs.

 

NFC West

8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Currently NFC #2 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 16-31-1: at 6-6 Packers; vs 4-8 Rams; vs 5-6-1 Cardinals; at 1-11 49ers.
– 99% chance of winning NFC West.
– Can clinch division with a win, plus a Cardinals loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss, plus a Cowboys win.

 

NFC North

8-4 Detroit Lions
Currently NFC #3 seed.
2-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 28-20: vs 3-9 Bears; at 8-4 Giants; at 11-1 Cowboys; vs 6-6 Packers.
– 79% chance of winning NFC North.
– 85% chance of making playoffs.
– 15% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with (a) loss to Bears, and (b) Cowboys win vs Giants.

6-6 Minnesota Vikings
Currently NFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-31: at 2-10 Jaguars; vs 6-6 Colts; at 6-6 Packers; vs 3-9 Bears.
– 5% chance of winning NFC North.
– 23% chance of making playoffs.
– 77% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from first round bye with (a) loss to Jaguars, and (b) Seahawks win at Packers.
– Eliminated from division title with (a) loss to Jaguars, and (b) Lions win vs Bears.

6-6 Green Bay Packers
Currently NFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 25-22-1: vs 8-3-1 Seahawks; at 3-9 Bears; vs 6-6 Packers; at 8-4 Lions.
– 16% chance of winning NFC North.
– 22% chance of making playoffs.
– 78% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from first round bye with loss to Seahawks.

 

NFC South

7-5 Atlanta Falcons
Currently NFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 14-34: at 4-8 Rams; vs 1-11 49ers; at 4-8 Panthers; vs 5-7 Saints.
– 71% chance of winning NFC South.
– 87% chance of making playoffs.
– 13% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) loss to Rams, or (b) Cowboys win at Giants.

7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Currently NFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 5-7 Saints; at 11-1 Cowboys; at 5-7 Saints; vs 4-8 Panthers.
– 26% chance of winning NFC South.
– 60% chance of making playoffs.
– 40% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) loss to Saints, or (b) Cowboys win at Giants.

 

NFL Week 14 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
December 10, 2016 at 2:00 pm ET

The schedule makers saved the best for last in NFL Week 14. On Sunday night Dallas is at the New York Giants in an NFC East showdown. Then on Monday night the Ravens and Patriots square off in a battle of division leading AFC rivals. While those two contests are the only ones (other than Thursday’s Raider-Chiefs game) between pairs of teams with winning records, there are still plenty of other interesting and competitive games.

Four other games are between clubs that both have at least a .500 record and genuine hopes for making the playoffs. Seattle at Green Bay, Pittsburgh at Buffalo, Denver at Tennessee and Houston at Indianapolis are all good matchups between teams fighting for a playoff spot. The only real stinkers this week are the Jets at Forty Niners and the battle for Ohio between Cincinnati and Cleveland.

 

NFL Week 14 Early Games on CBS

★★★★ 8-4 Denver Broncos at 6-6 Tennessee Titans
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.
Titans -1 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . TEN -120, DEN +100
• Broadcast in Alaska, Arkansas, northern Alabama, Los Angeles CA, Palm Springs CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Sioux City IA, Kansas, Bowling Green KY, northern Mississippi, Missouri (except Hannibal), Montana, Nebraska, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon (except Eugene), South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau should be able to confuse whomever is at quarterback for the Broncos. The Titans are better defending the run than the pass and newly signed Justin Forsett has shown no signs in the last two seasons of being the answer to Denver’s inability to run the ball. Without the advantage of opponent’s gasping for air at Mile High the Broncos could be looking at their fifth loss in their last nine games.

Prediction: Titans 23, Broncos 20
Titans -1 . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Tennessee -120

Final Score: Titans 13, Broncos 10 ✓
Titans -1 ✓ . . . . . under 43½ ✓ . . . . . Titans -120 ✓

 

★★★★ 6-6 Houston Texans at 6-6 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon.
Colts -6½ . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . IND -280, HOU +240
• Broadcast in Indiana, Louisville KY, Shreveport LA and Texas.

Houston is 1-5 on the road this year, averaging a league-worst 13.2 points per game away from home. After crushing the Jets last week the Colts seek their first back-to-back victories this season. Andrew Luck is playing better than he did early in the year and the Colts are healthier, with both lines performing better as well. I’ll take Luck at home over Brock Osweiler and his sub-60% completion rate on the road.

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 20
Colts -6½ . . . . . over 46½ . . . . . Indianapolis -280

Final Score: Texans 22, Colts 17 x
Colts -6½ x . . . . . over 46½ x . . . . . Colts -280 x

 

★★ 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 0-12 Cleveland Browns
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker.
Bengals -5½ . . . . over/under 41 . . . . CIN -240, CLE +200
• Broadcast in eastern Kentucky and Ohio.

I keep getting suckered in by big point spreads for the Browns, and keep getting hosed. Cleveland is not only winless, they are also an NFL-worst 2-10 against the spread. The Bengals aren’t much better: 4-7-1 straight up, 3-8-1 ATS; 1-5 S/U and 0-5-1 ATS on the road. Even without AJ Green Cincy should win this game against a rusty Robert Griffin at QB for Cleveland. On a side note former Patriot Jonathan Cooper will make his first start at right guard for the Browns.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 23
Browns +5½ . . . . . over 41 . . . . . Cincinnati -240

Final Score: Bengals 23, Browns 10 ✓
Browns +5½ x . . . . . over 41 x . . . . . Bengals -240 ✓

 

★★★★ 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at 6-6 Buffalo Bills
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.
Steelers -3 . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . PIT -150, BUF +130
• Broadcast in New England, Alabama (except Birmingham and Huntsville), DC, Florida (except Jacksonville and Miami), Georgia, Louisiana (except Shreveport), Maryland, Mississippi (except Tupelo), New York (except NYC), North Carolina (except Charlotte), Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.

Following a four game mid-season losing streak, the Steelers have rebounded with three straight victories. With LB Ryan Shazier back on the field the Pittsburgh defense has vastly improved. The Steelers surrendered an average of just ten points per game during the current winning streak – with two of those wins coming on the road. Similar to the Steelers with Shazier, Buffalo is a much better team when LeSean Mcoy is able to play. Take away two games with very limited action and the running back is averaging 125 yards from scrimmage per game. The Shazier-McCoy matchup will be fun to watch, and will likely determine the outcome. Forecast is for snow and 15-25 mph winds, but that shouldn’t be much of a factor considering that the Steelers are used to that type of weather.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Bills 20
Steelers -3 . . . . . under 46½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -150

Final Score: Steelers 27, Bills 20 ✓
Steelers -3 ✓ . . . . . under 46½ x . . . . . Steelers -150 ✓

 

★★★ 3-9 Chicago Bears at 8-4 Detroit Lions
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.
Lions -7½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . DET -330, CHI +270
• Broadcast in Illinois, Iowa (except Sioux City), Michigan, Hannibal MO and Wisconsin.

Former Patriot Akiem Hicks is coming off a 10-tackle, two-sack game last week. Detroit center Travis Swanson is out with a concussion, and guard Graham Glasgow will slide over to replace him. 2015 first round pick Laken Tomlinson would then start at guard; how those two fare versus Hicks will determine whether or not the Bears can pull off an upset. Chicago was able to pressure Matthew Stafford into early interceptions in a week three victory. However the Detroit defense has come on strong lately, holding opponents to an average of 16.3 points over the last six games.

Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 17
Bears +7½ . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Detroit -330

Final Score: Lions 20, Bears 17 ✓
Bears +7½ ✓ . . . . . under 43½ ✓ . . . . . Lions -330 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 5-7 San Diego Chargers at 4-8 Carolina Panthers
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, Brady Quinn, Jennifer Hale.
Panthers -1½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . CAR -125, SDG +105
• Broadcast in San Diego CA, Santa Barbara CA, Augusta GA, Columbus GA, North Carolina and South Carolina.

With C Ryan Kalil and RT Michael Oher on injured reserve, the Carolina offensive line has turned into a sieve. As a result Cam Newton has completed less than 50% of his passes in three straight games, and has surpassed a 60% completion rate just once all season. San Diego should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage behind Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Despite the long trip for an early kickoff the Chargers should win this game; they are the better team on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Panthers 20
Chargers +1½ (one unit) . . . . . under 48½ . . . . . San Diego +105

Final Score: Panthers 28, Chargers 16 x
Chargers +1½ x . . . . . under 48½ ✓ . . . . . Chargers +105 x

 

★★★ 5-6-1 Arizona Cardinals at 7-5 Miami Dolphins
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Holly Sonders.
Cardinals -1½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . ARI -125, MIA +105
• Broadcast in New England (except Hartford), Arizona, Florida (except Jacksonville), Boise ID and Rochester NY.

After going 7-1 on the road last year the Cardinals are just 1-4 away from home in 2016, and have lost three straight on the road. Miami is due to bounce back after last week’s epic failure at Baltimore, but Arizona does have some matchups in their favor. The Cardinals can run the ball with David Johnson, who leads the NFL with 1,709 yards from scrimmage (142 ypg). Miami ranks 30th against the run in both yards per carry (4.7) and yards per game (130). However the Dolphins have an advantage with Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh against an o-line that is poor in pass protection. I’m thinking both teams regress to their norms after last week’s games. Arizona hasn’t shown me any reason to believe in them either on the road, or in consecutive games.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Cardinals 17
Dolphins +1½ (two units) . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Miami +105

Final Score: Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23 ✓
Dolphins +1½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 43½ x . . . . . Dolphins +105 ✓

 

★★ 6-6 Minnesota Vikings at 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.
Vikings -3½ . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . MIN -170, JAC +150
• Broadcast in Alaska, Jacksonville FL, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Toledo OH, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

Jacksonville has lost seven in a row. Minnesota has lost six of their last seven, but at least their defense is keeping them in a position to win. Even with safety Harrison Smith sidelined the Viking defense should be able to do enough to carry Minnesota to a victory.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Jaguars 13
Vikings -3½ (two units) . . . . . under 39½ . . . . . Minnesota -170

Final Score: Vikings 25, Jaguars 16 ✓
Vikings -1½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 39½ x . . . . . Vikings -170 ✓

 

★★★ 6-5-1 Washington Redskins at 5-7 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.
Redskins -2½ . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . WAS -130, PHI +110
• Broadcast in Alabama, Arkansas, California (except San Diego and Santa Barbara), Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Georgia (except Augusta and Columbus), Hawaii, Idaho (except Boise), Indiana (except Indianapolis), Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York (except Buffalo and Rochester), Ohio (except Cleveland and Toledo), Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee (except Nashville), Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Washington is dealing with multiple injuries to their offensive line. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams returns from his suspension just in time for the Skins. Presuming that Kirk Cousins is given a decent amount of time, he should be able to pick apart a mediocre Philadelphia secondary. Washington is in a tough spot having to play a third straight road game, but they are definitely the better team. Playing away from home hasn’t bothered Cousins, who has 18 touchdowns to only four picks in his last nine road games.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Eagles 27
Redskins -2½ . . . . . over 46½ (two units) . . . . . Washington -130

Final Score: Redskins 27, Eagles 22 ✓
Redskins -2½ ✓ . . . . . over 46½ ✓✓ . . . . . Redskins -130 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Late Games on CBS

3-9 New York Jets at 1-11 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday December 11 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl.
Niners -2½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . SFO -150, NYJ +130
• Broadcast in Arizona, California (except LA and Palm Springs), Jacksonville FL, Miami FL, Minnesota, Reno NV, New York City, Charlotte NC, Eugene OR and Philadelphia PA.

The San Francisco defense is awful and the Niners have lost eleven straight, including five in a row at home. In their last three home games SF has lost by an average of 16 points. At least the Jets have a decent defense.

Prediction: Jets 17, 49ers 13
Jets +2½ (one unit) . . . . . under 43½ (one unit) . . . . . New York +130

Final Score: Jets 23, 49ers 17 OT ✓
Jets +2½ . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Jets +130 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Late Games on FOX

★★★★ 5-7 New Orleans Saints at 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman, Peter Schrager.
Buccaneers -2½ . . . . over/under 51½ . . . . TAM -140, NOR +120
• Broadcast in Mobile AL, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Roanoke VA, Beckley WV and Charleston WV.

New Orleans had trouble throwing the ball against Detroit, so expect the Saints to return to a more balanced offense that worked effectively earlier this year. The Tampa Bay defense ranks 26th in yards per rush (4.4) and 25th in rushing yards per game (116). The Bucs have been hot but even though this is a division game they could be caught looking ahead to next week’s Sunday night game against the Cowboys.

Prediction: Saints 31, Buccaneers 27
Saints +2½ (one unit) . . . . . over 51½ . . . . . New Orleans +120

Final Score: Buccaneers 16, Saints 11 x
Saints +2½ x . . . . . over 51½ x . . . . . Saints +120 x

 

★★★★★ 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks at 6-6 Green Bay Packers
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
Seahawks -3 . . . . over/under 45 . . . . SEA -145, GNB +125
• Broadcast in almost all markets. Available everywhere except for those areas airing the Saints-Bucs or Falcons-Rams game. Also not available in the San Francisco bay area due to NFL broadcast rules.

Green Bay getting point at home is almost unheard of, especially after a pair of wins. The Packers improved dramatically on defense the last two weeks, but that may be a function of the opposing offenses. Seattle has been playing very well and the Green Bay defensive back seven is in bad shape right now. I’ll take Russell Wilson and Seattle’s superior defense. Regardless of the outcome this should be a great game for football fans to watch.

Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 24
Seahawks -3 . . . . . over 45 . . . . . Seattle -145

Final Score: Packers 38, Seahawks 10 x
Seahawks -3 x . . . . . over 45 ✓ . . . . . Seahawks -145 x

 

★★★ 7-5 Atlanta Falcons at 4-8 Los Angeles Rams
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, David Diehl, Kristina Pink.
Falcons -6½ . . . . over/under 45 . . . . ATL -270, LAR +230
• Broadcast in Alabama (except Mobile), southern California (except San Diego) and Georgia.

I am leery of Atlanta’s offense outdoors against a good defense. Now add in WR Julio Jones attempting to play through a turf toe injury that makes it extremely difficult to plant your foot. And for good measure WR Mohamed Sanu has already been ruled out with a groin injury. If the Rams didn’t have such an inept offense then LA plus the points at home against a team traveling cross country would be the easy pick. But can anyone have faith in a Jeff Fisher-coached team?

Prediction: Falcons 24, Rams 20
Rams +6½ . . . . . under 45 . . . . . Atlanta -270

Final Score: Falcons 42, Rams 14 ✓
Rams +6½ x . . . . . under 45 x . . . . . Falcons -270 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Prime Time Games

★★★★★ 11-1 Dallas Cowboys at 8-4 New York Giants
Sunday December 11 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Cowboys -3½ . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . DAL -190, NYG +170

Much was made of the Giant’s six game winning streak, but that was a house of cards. I know you can only play who is on your schedule, but look at who Big Blue played prior to losing to Pittsburgh. Defeating the Browns, Bears, Bengals, Eagles and Rams isn’t all that difficult. Last week Le’veon Bell gashed the G-Men for 118 yards on the ground another 64 yards on six receptions. Ezekiel Elliott should be able to run all day as well. That will neutralize any hope the Giants have of staying in the game with their pass rush. Dallas will be out for revenge for their only loss of the season, and get it.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 20
Cowboys -3½ (one unit) . . . . . over 46½ . . . . . Dallas -190

Final Score: Giants 10, Cowboys 7 x
Cowboys -3½ x . . . . . over 46½ x . . . . . Cowboys -190 x

 

★★★★★ 7-5 Baltimore Ravens at 10-2 New England Patriots
Sunday December 11 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters
Patriots -7 . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . NWE -300, BAL +250

Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense had a breakout game against Miami last week. That was an anomaly though, don’t expect a repeat of that performance. The Ravens rank 30th on third down (34.1%), 24th in yards per play (5.1) and 21st in scoring (21.3 points per game). Baltimore does have an excellent defense though, allowing just 17.2 points per game (2nd in the NFL). OT Nate Solder will need some help slowing down OLB Terrell Suggs. The Ravens excel against the run, so the Patriots will once again rely on quick short passes to a variety of targets.

Baltimore’s recent winning streak (four out of five) has caught people’s attention. However, all four of those wins were at home; their only road victories were at Cleveland and Jacksonville. Those two teams are a combined 2-22. They beat an injured Steeler team and then won against Cleveland again and Cincinnati. While the win over Miami was impressive I just cannot picture Baltimore winning this game. What will John Harbaugh whine about this time?

Prediction: Patriots 24, Ravens 20
Ravens +7 . . . . . under 45½ . . . . . New England -300

Final Score: Patriots 30, Ravens 23 ✓
Ravens +7 -push- . . . . . under 45½ x . . . . . Patriots -300 ✓

 

★★★★★ 10-2 Oakland Raiders at 9-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday December 7 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Chiefs -3½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . KAN -175, OAK +155

I felt the combination of Oakland’s inferior defense, Derek Carr’s injury and the home field advantage delivered by an underrated Arrowhead Stadium crowd would result in a Kansas City win. I didn’t anticipate Tyreek Hill having such an impact. To me Spencer Ware and KC running the ball would be the decisive factor, but the Chiefs ran for just 65 yards. Alex Smith was able to pass the ball downfield for 264 yards while Carr went just 17-41 for a paltry 117 yards.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 20
Chiefs -3½ (two units) . . . . . over 46 . . . . . Kansas City -175

Final Score: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13 ✓
Chiefs -3½ ✓✓ . . . . . over 46 x . . . . . Chiefs -175 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Parlays and Teasers

3-Game Parlay (one unit): x
Jaguars vs Vikings -3½ ✓
Giants vs Cowboys -3½ x
Cardinals at Dolphins +1½ ✓

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Falcons at Rams +12½ x
Buccaneers vs Saints +8½ ✓
Cardinals at Dolphins +7½ ✓
Colts vs Texans +12½ ✓
Jets at 49ers under 49½ ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

For the second week in a row my teaser and parlay were blown up by a low scoring game. Two weeks ago I anticipated the Packers-Eagles game to be high scoring based upon those two defenses. Philly only managed to score 13 points and the total was under by 7½ points. Last week was more of the same. I expected Detroit-New Orleans to be a high scoring affair. The Detroit defense had its best game of the season, limiting the Saints – at home no less – to 13 points as well. In retrospect I should not have been surprised; that was the sixth straight game that Detroit has held an opponent to 20 or fewer points.

Week 13 Results:
10-5 Straight Up
7-8 Against the Spread
9-6 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 3-3, -60
1-unit plays: 3-0, +300
3-Game Parlay: 1u, -110
5-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
18 units invested
6-5, -90 on $1980 risk.
-4.5% ROI

Year to Date Results:
114-76-2 Straight Up
102-85-5 Against the Spread
106-86 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 35-19-1, +2800
1-unit plays: 39-26-1, +1030
Parlays: 3-8, +1410
Teasers: 6-5, +2610
91-63-3, +8870 on original $2310 risk.
384.0% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
31.5% ROI on $28,160 (256 units) of total weekly investments.

6-5, -90 on 18 units (-4.5%) in Week 13.
6-9-1, -360 on 28 units (-11.7%) in Week 12.
9-2, +2380 on 16 units (+135.2%) in Week 11.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 15 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats Favored by 3 at Denver

John Morgan
December 7, 2016 at 9:45 pm ET

Week 15 brings a test to the theory that pro football has become over saturated. The NFL will televise games on four days next week. With college football finished with the exception of bowl games and playoffs, the NFL is now free to include Saturdays on their schedule. Don’t get too excited about that proposition though. Our first Saturday game of the NFL season takes place at Exit 16W in New Jersey, with the Jets hosting Miami. If you are so inclined to tune in, the game will be available on the NFL Network.

Since the byes went by-by football fans have been treated to a bounty of quality matchups. Unfortunately that is not the case in week 15: there are only three games between teams with winning records. The only good early game is the Lions at Giants, though it gets better after that. In the late afternoon the Patriots are at Denver and Oakland is at San Diego; it is a shame both games are on at the same time. Sunday night Tampa visits Dallas, and then on Monday the floundering Panthers are in Washington.

The odds as well as the won-loss records are prior to the week 14 games. Most of these lines will change after this weekend, but if you happen to be in Sin City before then you can wager up to $3000 on these early look-ahead lines at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook should you feel so inclined.

 

NFL Week 15 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

4-8 Los Angeles Rams at 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks (-12½)
Thursday December 15 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

7-5 Miami Dolphins (-3½) at 3-9 New York Jets
Saturday December 17 at 8:30 pm ET on NFLN

2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars at 6-6 Houston Texans (-5½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

0-12 Cleveland Browns at 6-6 Buffalo Bills (-10)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Tennessee Titans at 9-3 Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Indianapolis Colts at 6-6 Minnesota Vikings (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Green Bay Packers (-4) at 3-9 Chicago Bears
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

5-7 Philadelphia Eagles at 7-5 Baltimore Ravens (-6½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

8-4 Detroit Lions at 8-4 New York Giants (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

5-7 New Orleans at 5-6-1 Arizona Cardinals (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

1-11 San Francisco 49ers at 7-5 Atlanta Falcons (-11)
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

10-2 New England Patriots (-3) at 8-4 Denver Broncos
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

10-2 Oakland Raiders at 5-7 San Diego Chargers (-1)
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 11-1 Dallas Cowboys (-9½)
Sunday December 18 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

4-8 Carolina Panthers at 6-5-1 Washington Redskins (-4)
Monday December 19 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

Back to the current week, NFL fans are treated to the best Thursday night game of the year tomorrow. The Chiefs and Raiders are not only both headed for the playoffs, these division rivals are two of the best teams in the league right now. Oakland has won six in a row and for the moment hold the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have won eight out of nine since a week five bye and are 20-4 overall since late October of 2015.

Kansas City has the better defense and Oakland has the better offense. With Jeremy Maclin back in the lineup the KC offense is more versatile and should be able to exploit the Oakland D. The Raiders rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed and are 30th in yards per game. Oakland has survived thanks to turnovers, but Kansas City protects the ball very well. Derek Carr’s fingers are still not healed, and Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the three best home field advantages in the NFL. Spencer Ware could be in for a big game against a Raider defense that is surrendering 4.7 yards per rush (31st). Oakland doesn’t really have an answer for TE Travis Kelce either.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 20
Chiefs -3½ (two units) . . . . . over 46 . . . . . Kansas City -175

Final Score: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13 ✓
Chiefs -3½ ✓✓ . . . . . over 46 x . . . . . Chiefs -175 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
December 4, 2016 at 7:00 am ET

Despite the supposedly foolproof plan to avoid controversy in determining a champion, college football is in the midst of doing just that once again.

When it comes to football the reality is that our nations universities sold their souls in a quest for the almighty dollar long ago. The idea that it is all about kids getting an education is an insult to our intelligence. And that is before the absurd topic of player safety.

Colleges wanted to get away from six and eight team leagues, and form 12 and 14 team mega conferences. One of the benefits to doing so was a huge influx of cash for a championship game. This was made possible by having enough teams in a conference to create two divisions. The two division winners meet after the season is over and voilà, another big pay day for everyone except for those actually playing the game.

If that is the way you want to set this sport up, then fine. Have your mega-conference championship games, and then the winners of those games can meet in a mini-playoff series to determine the nation’s number one team. But thanks to our everyone-gets-a-trophy mentality, that’s not good enough. Gee whiz, what if a good team gets excluded?

Colleges and their boosters want it both ways. They want to financially benefit from conference championship games. But then they want to be able to send whatever team is actually the best one from their group to a national championship game – even if they did not win, or even play in their league’s title game.

Sorry it doesn’t – or at least should not work that way. How can anyone justify a team winning their conference and then tell them sorry, but another team that did not win your league is going to the playoffs for the national title? If you are going to do that then you need to eliminate conference championship games, because you just made them meaningless.

Want more happy thoughts? Consider this with Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now thankfully in the rear view mirror. More people in the United States shopped during that short time period than voted in the presidential election.

 

NFL Week 13 Early Games on CBS

★★ 7-4 Denver Broncos at 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.
Broncos -3½ . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . DEN -180, JAC +160
Broadcast in Tucson AZ, San Diego CA, Colorado, Jacksonville FL, Idaho (except Boise), New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

Denver has cooled off after beginning the season 4-0. Since then the Broncos are 3-4 with only one quality win, back in week seven against Houston. NFL teams have fared poorly the week after an overtime game, and Denver lost in OT last week. Now the Donkeys have to travel 1800 miles and leave the best home field advantage in the league behind – with a backup QB under center.

Normally that would be a recipe for disaster, but the Broncos are playing a moribund Jacksonville squad. The Jaguars own the league’s worst worst turnover differential at minus-15, which helps explain their record. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pose a huge mismatch for Jag tackles Kelvin Beachum and Jermy Parnell. Denver has had trouble stopping the run (4.3 yards per carry; 120 yards per game) but the Jacksonville line can’t open up lanes, and their running backs are pedestrian. The dropoff from Siemian to Paxton Lynch is at quarterback is minimal for Denver and a non-issue.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Jaguars 17
Broncos -3½ (two units) . . . . . under 39½ . . . . . Denver -180

Final Score: Broncos 20, Jaguars 10 ✓
Broncos -3½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 39½ ✓ . . . . . Broncos -180 ✓

 

★★★★★ 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs at 7-4 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl.
Falcons -5½ . . . . over/under 49 . . . . ATL -240, KAN +200
Broadcast in Alabama (except Mobile), Arkansas, Tallahassee FL, Tampa FL, Georgia, western Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana (except Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Shreveport), Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and western Virginia.

Similar to Denver, the Chiefs face the challenge of going on the road after playing five full quarters of football last week. Unlike the Broncos, KC has the polar opposite in strength of opposition. While Denver and now Oakland receive far more publicity, the Chiefs have quietly won 18 of their last 21 regular season games. An already good KC defense received a boost with the return of OLB Justin Houston from a knee injury.

The media has focused on Derek Carr’s injured finger, but Kansas City is another AFC West club with injury problems. NT Dontari Poe was unable to practice all week, so it is unlikely he’ll play. CB Marcus Peters will play, but even with a fully healthy hip he will have his hands full covering Julio Jones.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Chiefs 24
Chiefs +5½ . . . . . over 49 . . . . . Atlanta -240

Final Score: Chiefs 29, Falcons 28 x
Chiefs +5½ ✓ . . . . . over 49 ✓ . . . . . Falcons -240 x

 

★★★★ 6-5 Houston Texans at 5-6 Green Bay Packers
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.
Green Bay -6½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . GNB -270, HOU +230
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona (except Tucson), Connecticut, Hawaii, Boise ID, Illinois (except Chicago), Indiana, Kentucky, Shreveport LA, Michigan (except Detroit and Flint), Minnesota, Las Vegas NV, New York City, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas (except El Paso), Washington and Wisconsin.

Houston turned the ball over six times in the last two weeks, dropping to 6-5. Aaron Rodgers at home or Brock Osweiler on the road? Green Bay’s pass defense is poor, but they are very efficient against the run (3.8 yards per carry). Houston wants to run the ball behind Lamar Miller. If the Texans are unable to do so, Osweiler cannot keep pace with Rodgers in a shootout. There is a chance of snow, which would definitely benefit the Packers as well.

Prediction: Packers 24, Texans 13
Packers -6½ (two units) . . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . . Green Bay -270

Final Score: Packers 21, Texans 13 ✓
Packers -6½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Packers -270 ✓

 

★★★★ 7-4 Miami Dolphins at 6-5 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, Chris Fischer.
Ravens -3½ . . . . over/under 41 . . . . BAL -180, MIA +160
Broadcast in Mobile AL, DC, Florida (except Jacksonville, Panama City and Tampa), Maryland, Ohio (except Cincinnati), Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), eastern Virginia and West Virginia.

Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil return to the Miami offensive line this week, though Mike Pouncey is still out. Baltimore also gets some good news on the injury front with the return of guard Marshal Yanda. The Ravens have rebounded from a four game losing streak punctuated with a loss to the Jets, winning three of their last four. Miami is even hotter, winning six straight after a 1-4 start to the season. Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi have played very well during that streak. Tannehill has thrown nine touchdown passes versus just one pick and Ajayi is averaging 122 rushing yards per game while finding the end zone five times in that winning span.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Ravens 20
Dolphins +3½ . . . . . over 41 . . . . . Miami +160

Final Score: Ravens 38, Dolphins 6 x
Dolphins +3½ x . . . . . over 41 ✓ . . . . . Dolphins +160 x

 

NFL Week 13 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 5-6 Philadelphia Eagles at 3-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Peter Schrager.
Bengals -1½ . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . CIN -125, PHI +105
Broadcast in DC, Salisbury MD, eastern Kentucky, Ohio (except Toledo), North Dakota, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

After starting the season 3-0 Philly’s season has gone down the toilet with six losses in their last eight games. The Eagles cannot win the division and would need to leap frog five teams to make the playoffs as a six seed. Cincinnati is headed in the same direction. The Bengals have lost three in a row and are showing no signs of interest in the post-season. Philly has lost five straight road games, with their only victory away coming against the Bears. Even without AJ Green I’ll give a very slight edge to Cincinnati here.

Prediction: Bengals 17, Eagles 16
Eagles +1½ . . . . . under 41½ . . . . . Cincinnati -125

Final Score: Bengals 32, Eagles 14 ✓
Eagles +1½ x . . . . . under 41½ x . . . . . Bengals -125 ✓

 

★★★★ 7-4 Detroit Lions at 5-6 New Orleans Saints
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale.
Saints -6 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . NOR -260, DET +220
Broadcast in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida (except Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach), Georgia (except Atlanta), Wichita KS, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Toledo OH, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin (except Green Bay).

Matthew Stafford should have a field day against a New Orleans defense that is allowing 28 points per game. Other than last week’s blowout over the Rams, the Saints have not been rather average at home. Even if New Orleans wins it is more likely going to be by three or four points than by more than a touchdown.

Prediction: Lions 34, Saints 31
Lions +6 (two units) . . . . . over 52½ (two units) . . . . . Detroit +220

Final Score: Lions 28, Saints 13 ✓
Lions +6 ✓✓ . . . . . over 52½ xx . . . . . Lions +220 ✓

 

1-10 San Francisco 49ers at 2-9 Chicago Bears
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.
Niners -2 . . . . over/under 43 . . . . SFO -130, CHI +110
Broadcast in northern California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Reno NV and Medford OR.

Who did Kenny Albert piss off to be assigned to cover this dumpster fire? The weather could play a factor in this game. With rain and/or snow in the forecast sloppy playing conditions could lead to turnovers and a low scoring game.

Prediction: Niners 20, Bears 14
Niners -2 . . . . . under 43 (one unit) . . . . . San Francisco -130

Final Score: Bears 26, Forty Niners 6 x
Niners -2 x . . . . . under 43 . . . . . Niners -130 x

 

★★★★ 4-7 Los Angeles Rams at 9-2 New England Patriots
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.
Patriots -13½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . NWE -900, LAR +600
Broadcast in New England, Arizona, southern California, Colorado, south Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, West Palm Beach), Hawaii, Idaho, southern Illinois, Kansas (except Wichita), Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Las Vegas NV, Oregon (except Medford), Tennessee (except Memphis), Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Bill Belichick game plans to limit the opposition’s primary threat. That means stopping running back Todd Gurley. Opponents have been successful with that same tactic all season, resulting in the Rams averaging an NFL-worst 15.5 points per game.

Robert Quinn did not practice all week due to a concussion. He is listed as questionable, but I don’t see how he can play in this game. Center Tim Barnes and LG Rodger Saffold are also questionable for the Rams; the Patriots are not the only team here with an injury concern. Despite the most recent Belichick-Jeff Fisher games (45-7 and 59-0 Pats victories), I’m inclined to believe that the LA defense bounces back from last week’s debacle in New Orleans. The Patriots will win but this is not going to be an easy cakewalk.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 17
Rams +13½ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . New England -900

Final Score: Patriots 26, Rams 10 ✓
Rams +13½ x . . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . . Patriots -900 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Late Games

★★★★ 6-5 Buffalo Bills at 9-2 Oakland Raiders
Sunday December 4 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.
Raiders -3 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . OAK -165, BUF +145
Broadcast in New England (except Hartford), Yuma AZ, California (except San Diego), Chicago IL, Baton Rouge LA, New Orleans LA, Detroit MI, Flint MI, Reno NV, New York (except New York City), Cincinnati OH, Oregon, Philadelphia PA and El Paso TX.

Buffalo enters the game with the NFL’s best rushing attack. The Bills are averaging 5.3 yards per carry, 157 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns – all best in the league. That is bad news for an Oakland defense allowing a 30th-ranked 4.6 yards per carry. With Derek Carr dealing with two dislocated fingers the Raiders could be in trouble here.

Prediction: Bills 27, Raiders 24
Bills +3 . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Buffalo +145

Final Score: Raiders 38, Bills 24 x
Bills +3 x . . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Bills +145 x

 

★★★ 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-6 San Diego Chargers
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, David Diehl, Holly Sonders.
Chargers -3½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . SDG -185, TAM +165
Broadcast in San Diego CA and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).

The Bucs have somehow worked their way into the playoff race. However their secondary is still bad, and Philip Rivers should be able to exploit that deficiency. Tampa Bay won’t be able to cover Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. Melvin Gordon will be able to gain big chunks of yardage on the ground with the focus on the passing game, but Tampa will keep it close. The Chargers have no answer for WR Mike Evans, and Jameis Winston has been making good decisions with the ball.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Buccaneers 24
Chargers -3½ . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . San Diego -185

Final Score: Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21 x
Chargers -3½ x . . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Chargers -185 x

 

★★★ 6-4-1 Washington Redskins at 4-6-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman, Kristina Pink.
Cardinals -2½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . ARI -135, WAS +115
Broadcast in Arizona, DC, North Carolina and Virginia.

Running back David Johnson has not been utilized enough by Arizona. If Bruce Arians gets his head out of his butt and figures that out then the Cardinals should win. Washington is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and doesn’t have the personnel to handle him on screen passes out of the backfield.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Redskins 23
Redskins +2½ . . . . . under 48½ . . . . . Arizona -135

Final Score: Cardinals 31, Redskins 23 ✓
Redskins +2½ x . . . . . under 48½ x . . . . . Cardinals -135 ✓

 

★★★★ 8-3 New York Giants at 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
Steelers -6 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . PIT -260, NYG +220
Broadcast in all markets except for those airing the Bucs-Chargers or Skins-Cardinals games above. Also not televised in San Francisco due to NFL broadcast rules, as the Raiders are playing at home at the same time.

The New York defense has received plenty of platitudes during their winning streak. However much of that can be attributed to facing inferior offenses led by mediocre quarterbacks. I like Pittsburgh here but a line of six points leaves me hesitant to place a wager on this game.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Giants 24
Steelers -6 . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -260

Final Score: Steelers 24, Giants 14 ✓
Steelers -6 ✓ . . . . . over 48½ x . . . . . Steelers -260 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Prime Time Games

★★★★ 4-7 Carolina Panthers at 7-3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday December 4 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Seahawks -7 . . . . over/under 44 . . . . SEA -350, CAR +290

Seattle was in a difficult spot last week, making a long road trip with injuries to key players. The Seahawks are back home and are also healthy again.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Panthers 13
Seahawks -7 (two units) . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Seattle -350

Final Score: Seahawks 40, Panthers 7 ✓
Seahawks -7 ✓✓ . . . . . under 44 x . . . . . Seahawks -350 ✓

 

★★ 5-6 Indianapolis Colts at 3-8 New York Jets
Monday December 5 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters.
Colts -1½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . IND -125, NYJ +105

The Jets had their Super Bowl last week. Expect that to be followed by the inevitable letdown, if that is possible for a three-win team.

Prediction: Colts 20, Jets 17
Colts -1½ (one unit) . . . . . under 48½ (two units) . . . . . Indianapolis -125

Final Score: Colts 41, Jets 10 ✓
Colts -1½ . . . . . under 48½ xx . . . . . Colts -125 ✓

 

★★★★ 10-1 Dallas Cowboys at 6-5 Minnesota Vikings
Thursday December 1 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Cowboys -3 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . DAL -160, MIN +130

Along with most of the nation I did not expect this to be as close as it was. On one hand Dallas keeps finding ways to win, but on the other I can’t help but wonder if Ezekiel Elliott is hitting the rookie wall. Is it possible that the Cowboys peaked too soon and are running out of gas?

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Vikings 13
Cowboys -3 (two units) . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Dallas -160

Final Score: Cowboys 17, Vikings 15 ✓
Cowboys -3 xx . . . . . under 43½ ✓ . . . . . Cowboys -160 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Parlays and Teasers

3-Game Parlay (one unit): x
Lions at Saints over 52½ x
Panthers at Seahawks -7 ✓
Jets vs Colts -1½ ✓

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Lions at Saints over 46½ x
Panthers at Seahawks -1 ✓
Jets vs Colts +4½ ✓
Ravens vs Dolphins +9½ x
Saints vs Lions +12 ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week the total of the Packers at Eagles game killed me. The final score was 27-13 and I took over 47½ based primarily on Green Bay’s defense in recent weeks. I lost two units on the over, and also two units on a parlay and another two units on a teaser. That was a 5-game teaser that would have paid out 410 x 2. On paper the outcome cost me six units but in reality it was much more. Had the game gone over the delta between what I would have been up versus what I was down was a net 2450 (1790-660)! That one game wiped out the positive of hitting on my second largest play of the season, a four unit wager on Atlanta-Arizona.

Week 12 Results:
11-5 Straight Up
7-8-1 Against the Spread
8-8 Over/Under
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
2-unit plays: 3-3-1, -80
1-unit plays: 2-4, -240
3-Game Parlay: 2u, -220
5-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
28 units invested
6-9-1, -360 on $3080 risk.
-11.7% ROI

Year to Date Results:
104-71-2 Straight Up
94-77-5 Against the Spread
96-80 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 32-16-1, +2910
1-unit plays: 36-26-1, +730
Parlays: 3-7, +1520
Teasers: 6-4, +2830
85-58-3, +9010 on original $2310 risk.
390.0% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
34.4% ROI on $26,180 (238 units) of total weekly investments.

6-9-1, -360 on 28 units (-11.7%) in Week 11.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 14 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Patriots favored by 10 vs Ravens

John Morgan
December 1, 2016 at 4:00 pm ET

NFL Week 14 offers another great slate of games. The schedule starts with Oakland at Kansas City on Thursday night, and finishes with Baltimore at New England on Monday night. In between there are plenty of other quality matchups such as Pittsburgh at Buffalo, Arizona at Miami, San Diego at Carolina, Seattle at Green Bay, and then a Cowboys-Giants rematch on Sunday night.

While the biggest buzz around NFL circles right now is Rob Gronkowski’s injury and how it may detour the Patriots’ revenge tour, there is plenty of other league news. Ram head coach Jeff Fisher apparently does not watch much film of his team’s upcoming opponent in preparation for his next game. Jay Cutler is done for the season, which will lead to speculation on his future with the Bears. Denver has their own crisis at quarterback, and Viking fans looking forward to the return of Adrian Peterson may have to wait a while. Raven head coach John Harbaugh would love to see a rule change that would benefit his team, and former Jet running back Joe McKnight was shot dead in suburban New Orleans.

Back to Week 14, there are some interesting spreads for those who like to live life on the edge. How about the New Orleans at Tampa Bay pick’em? Or Washington getting a point at floundering Philadelphia? Houston getting four points at Indy is tempting. And then there is 10-1 Dallas, who only needs to win by a field goal for you to cash in.

Keep in mind that these odds were set not only prior to Sunday’s games, but before Thursday’s Cowboys-Vikings contest as well. If you happen to be in Vegas, you can drop up to 3K on any of these games at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook right now if you are feeling particularly clairvoyant. Nearly half (seven out of sixteen) home teams are listed as underdogs.

 

NFL Week 14 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

9-2 Oakland Raiders at 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs (-3½)
Thursday December 8 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

7-4 Denver Broncos (-1) at 6-6 Tennessee Titans
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

5-6 San Diego Chargers at 4-7 Carolina Panthers (-2½)
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

6-5 Houston Texans at 5-6 Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

3-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals (-3½) at 0-12 Cleveland Browns
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-1½) at 6-5 Buffalo Bills
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

4-6-1 Arizona Cardinals at 7-4 Miami Dolphins (-3)
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

2-9 Chicago Bears at 7-4 Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-5 Minnesota Vikings (-3) at 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

5-6 New Orleans Saints at 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pick’em)
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

6-4-1 Washington Redskins at 5-6 Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

3-8 New York Jets at 1-10 San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Sunday December 11 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS

7-3-1 Seattle Seahawks (-2½) at 5-6 Green Bay Packers
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

7-4 Atlanta Falcons (-4½) at 4-7 Los Angeles Rams
Sunday December 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

10-1 Dallas Cowboys (-2) at 8-3 New York Giants
Sunday December 11 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

6-5 Baltimore Ravens at 9-2 New England Patriots (-10)
Monday December 12 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

Back to Week 13 for a moment. In early October this matchup looked like it might be a preview of the NFC championship game. Since then the Cowboys have continued to win, while Minnesota keeps finding ways to lose. At some point relatively early on the Dallas offensive line will pave the way for a score or two. The Vikings don’t have anywhere near enough of an offense (19.8 points per game, 24th; 295 yards per game, 32nd) to come back against a Cowboy team that is averaging 28.7 points per game (3rd) and 408 yards per game (4th).

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Vikings 13
Cowboys -3 (two units) . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Dallas -160

 

NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
November 27, 2016 at 7:30 am ET

NFL Week 12 kicked off with three good games on Thanksgiving Day. Home teams are underdogs in five of the twelve games being played Sunday, which could lead to some interesting results. The best matchup this week takes place on Sunday Night. The Chiefs are at Denver in a battle of 7-3 AFC West clubs. The other prime time game isn’t bad at all either, with the Eagles hosting the Packers on Monday night.

Two days after the fourth anniversary of the Butt Fumble, the Patriots and Jets meet again. Gang Green has already lost more games this season than they did in all of 2015, and are listed as 7½-point underdogs even though they are at home in New Jersey. That spread is tied as the highest of all games being played Sunday; the other is Buffalo at home over the stumbling Jacksonville Jaguars.

And of course, some mediot had to ask Bill Belichick about that play – and receive a classic response.

In terms of television coverage the Pats-Jets game will be televised by CBS in the northeast, from New England as far west as Indiana and Kentucky, and along the Atlantic seaboard to DC and Norfolk, Virginia. It will also air in Florida with the exception of Tampa (blacked out because the Bucs are at home at the same time) and the panhandle. In that late afternoon slot the rest of the country will receive Carolina at Oakland; admittedly a more compelling game for neutral fans.

For the early time slot on CBS most of the nation, including New England will get the Cincinnati at Baltimore game. FOX has the single game in Week 12. Giants-Browns will air in the northeast, Arizona at Atlanta in most of the southeast, and Seattle at Tampa Bay in the late time slot will be broadcast on most stations west of the Mississippi.

 

NFL Week 12 Early Games on CBS

★★★★ 4-6 San Diego Chargers at 6-4 Houston Texans
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Chargers -2½ . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . SDG -135, HOU +115
Broadcast in Yuma AZ, California, Colorado, Wichita KS, Shreveport LA, Reno NV, Oklahoma, Portland OR, Texas and Spokane WA.

Granted there was questionable officiating, but Houston blew two seven-point second half leads to lose to the Raiders. The Texans have now been outscored 41-9 in the fourth quarter over the last four weeks, and are in a battle for the division lead while playing on a short week. Houston’s defense is not bad: 5th in yards, 13th in points, 8th on third down, 10th in yards per play. The offense stinks though, especially the passing game. The Texans rank last in yards per play and are 28th in both yardage and scoring. Brock Osweiler is completing less than 60 percent of his passes and ranks 31st with a 74.9 passer rating. Osweiler has thrown 12 touchdowns and 10 picks; the only starters with a worse TD:INT differential are Blaine Gabbert, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

That being said, Houston is 5-0 at home this year and will likely have a bit of extra adrenaline after those bad calls in Mexico City. Although I would take Philip Rivers over Osweiler, I would also take Bill O’Brien over Mike McCoy as head coach seven days a week.

Prediction: Texans 27, Chargers 21
Texans +2½ (one unit) . . . . . over 46½ . . . . . Houston +115

Final Score: Chargers 21, Texans 13 x
Texans +2½ x . . . . . over 46½ x . . . . . Texans +115 x

 

★★ 5-6 Tennessee Titans at 2-8 Chicago Bears
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Titans -5½ . . . . over/under 42 . . . . TEN -240, CHI +200
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, western Kentucky, southwestern and upper peninsula Michigan, northern Mississippi, eastern Missouri, Omaha NE, Fargo ND, Eugene OR, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Jay Cutler is doubtful with a shoulder injury after taking a big hit from Olivier Vernon on the second snap of last week’s game against the Giants. Matt Barkley will get his first NFL start and first meaningful playing time since relieving first Nick Foles and then Michael Vick with the Eagles mid-season in 2013. The Bears have 14 players on injured reserve and don’t have the quality depth to overcome that setback. All Tennessee has to do is avoid complacency and dumb mistakes to win this game easily.

Prediction: Titans 23, Bears 13
Titans -5½ (two units) . . . . . under 42 . . . . . Tennessee -240

Final Score: Titans 27, Bears 21 ✓
Titans -5½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 42 x . . . . . Titans -240 ✓

 

★★ 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-5 Buffalo Bills
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker
Bills -7½ . . . . over/under 45 . . . . BUF -330, JAC +270
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia and New York (except for New York City).

Rex Ryan has stated that WR Sammy Watkins and RB LeSean McCoy will play Sunday. That would mark the first time those two are on the field together since week two. That is bad news for a Jacksonville defense that is giving up 26.5 points per game (25th) and doesn’t force turnovers (last in the NFL with seven). Even worse news for the Jags is that their D is performing better than their offense.

Prediction: Bills 27, Jaguars 13
Bills -7½ (one unit) . . . . . under 45 . . . . . Buffalo -330

Final Score: Bills 28, Jaguars 21 ✓
Bills -7½ x . . . . . under 45 x . . . . . Bills -330 ✓

 

★★★ 3-6-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-5 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn
Ravens -4 . . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . BAL -200, CIN +175
Broadcast in New England and all markets not listed in the three other early CBS games above. Also not broadcast in Atlanta, Cleveland, Miami and New Orleans due to NFL broadcast rules that prohibit a game being televised on another network when the local team is playing at home and being broadcast.

The Bengals have won only one game since September and are now without AJ Green and Gio Bernard, so they have no chance here, right? However, looking closer you see Cincy started that streak with losses at Dallas and New England; no shame there. After a 14-point win the Bengals tied Washington, lost to the Giants by one, and lost to Buffalo by four without their star WR and third down back. Cincy might pack it in at some point, but I would not expect for that to happen against a bitter division rival.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 16
Bengals +4½ . . . . . under 40½ . . . . . Baltimore -200

Final Score: Ravens 19, Bengals 14 ✓
Bengals +4½ ✓ . . . . . under 40½ ✓ . . . . . Ravens -200 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Early Games on FOX

★★★★ 4-5-1 Arizona Cardinals at 6-4 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver
Falcons -6 . . . . . over/under 51 . . . . ATL -240, ARI +200
Broadcast in Alabama, Arizona, Grand Junction CO, Springfield IL, Indiana (except South Bend), Iowa, Louisville KY, Flint MI, Grand Rapids MI, Minnesota, southern Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota and eastern Tennessee.

Expect a high scoring game. The Falcons are averaging 34 points at home, but opponents have scored at least 31 points in each of those games. Arizona needed two returns of 100+ yards to beat the Vikings a week ago; that won’t happen again. But after watching Ryan Mathews and Wendell Smallwood of all people rush for 200+ yards against Atlanta in their last game, I wonder how badly David Johnson will torch the Falcon defense.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Cardinals 31
Cardinals +6 . . . . . over 51 (four units) . . . . . Atlanta -240

Final Score: Falcons 38, Cardinals 19 ✓
Cardinals +6 x . . . . . over 51 ✓✓✓✓ . . . . . Falcons -240 ✓

 

★★ 1-9 San Francisco 49ers at 6-4 Miami Dolphins
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman, Holly Sonders
Dolphins -7½ . . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . MIA -330, SFO +270
Broadcast in northern California, Miami FL, West Palm Beach FL and Reno NV.

San Francisco is allowing an astounding 180 yards rushing per game, at 5.2 yards per carry. Now they travel cross country for an early start to face the Dolphins. Miami RB Jay Ajayi has rushed for 685 yards and four touchdowns in the last five games, and leads the league with 5.6 yards per rush. The Dolphins are without three starters on their offensive line, but it still won’t matter.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Niners 20
Niners +7½ . . . . . over 44½ . . . . . Miami -330

Final Score: Dolphins 31, Niners 24 ✓
Niners +7½ ✓ . . . . . over 44½ ✓ . . . . . Dolphins -330 ✓

 

★★★ 4-6 Los Angeles Rams at 4-6 New Orleans Saints
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale
Saints -7 . . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . NOR -335, LAR +275
Broadcast in Mobile AL, Arkansas, Los Angeles CA, Palm Springs CA, Louisiana and Mississippi.

New Orleans possesses a potent offense, scoring 28.5 points per game (4th) and averaging 422 yards of offense (2nd). Conversely the Saints have shot themselves in the foot recently, turning the ball over an alarming six times in the last two games. As a result the Saints dropped two close games and now stand at 4-6 rather than 6-4 and sharing the division lead. The Saints have run the ball well over their last five games, and need to continue to do so. If New Orleans becomes one-dimensional then Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers will be able to generate enough of a pass rush to neutralize Drew Brees. The challenge for the Rams will be for their excellent defense to overcome Jeff Fisher’s coaching decisions and game plan, and rookie quarterback Jared Goff in the raucous Superdome.

Prediction: Saints 27, Rams 17
Saints -7 (two units) . . . . . under 45½ . . . . . New Orleans -335

Final Score: Saints 49, Rams 21 ✓
Saints -7 ✓✓ . . . . . under 45½ x . . . . . Saints -335 ✓

 

★★ 7-3 New York Giants at 0-11 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Matt Millen, Peter Schrager
Giants -7½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . NYG -320, CLE +260
Broadcast in New England, DC, Salisbury MD, New York (except Buffalo), Ohio, Pennsylvania, Memphis TN, Brownsville TX, Virginia (except Richmond) and West Virginia.

Josh McCown hasn’t played badly in his time with the Browns, but Cleveland’s offensive line makes any quarterback an injury waiting to happen. New York’s defense has vastly improved from a year ago, resulting in close wins rather than narrow losses. I think the spread may be a bit too high, but I have no faith in placing any of my hard earned money on this train wreck of a team.

Prediction: Giants 24, Browns 20
Browns +7½ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . New York -320

Final Score: Giants 27, Browns 13 ✓
Browns +7½ x . . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . . Giants -320 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Late Game on FOX

★★★★ 7-2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 5-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday November 27 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX;
Seahawks -6 . . . . over/under 45 . . . . SEA -260, TAM +220
Broadcast in Alaska, San Diego CA, Colorado, Florida (except Miami and West Palm Beach), Hawaii, Idaho, northern Illinois, South Bend IN, Kansas, Kentucky (except Louisville), Baltimore MD, Michigan (except Flint and Grand Rapids), northern Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, Buffalo NY, Cincinnati OH, Oklahoma, Oregon, Nashville TN, Texas (except Brownsville), Utah, Richmond VA, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

With Doug Martin back on the field, Tampa Bay has improved in both running the ball as well as in pass protection. That is good news for Mike Evans, who has 65 receptions for 916 yards and eight touchdowns. However, the Tampa Bay defense is no more than average and their secondary is one of the league’s worst. Raymond James Stadium does not offer much of a home field advantage, with many transplants buying up tickets at less than face value to see their favorite out of town team visit. As a result this road game should not be a problem, even though Seattle is traveling as far as a team can and stay within the United States.

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Buccaneers 20
Seahawks -6 (two units) . . . . . over 45 (one unit) . . . . . Seattle -260

Final Score: Buccaneers 14, Seahawks 5 x
Seahawks -6 xx . . . . . over 45 x . . . . . Seahawks -260 x

 

NFL Week 12 Late Games on CBS

★★★★ 4-6 Carolina Panthers at 8-2 Oakland Raiders
Sunday November 27 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Raiders -3 . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . OAK -170, CAR +150
Broadcast in all markets not airing the Pats-Jets game (below); also not broadcast in Tampa due to NFL rules that forbid another game being televised when the local team is at home.

Josh Norman may not have helped Washington as much as the Redskins hoped he would, but his departure sure has impacted the Panthers. Carolina’s pass defense ranks 29th in completion percentage (67.1%), 26th in passing yards per game (272) and 23rd in yards per pass (7.2). Derek Carr has thrown 20 touchdown passes with only four interceptions this season, and the Raiders rank fourth in passing yards per game (276). In other words this is going to be a long day for the Carolina defense, who will be without their best defensive player, LB Luke Kuechly (concussion), and leading pass rusher, DE Mario Addison (foot).

Prediction: Raiders 31, Panthers 23
Raiders -3 (two units) . . . . . over 49½ (one unit) . . . . . Oakland -170

Final Score: Raiders 35, Panthers 32 ✓
Raiders -3 -push- . . . . . over 49½ . . . . . Raiders -170 ✓

 

★★★★ 8-2 New England Patriots at 3-7 New York Jets
Sunday November 27 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . NWE -360, NYJ +300
Broadcast in New England, DC, Florida (except Tampa, Gainesville and Panama City), Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Norfolk VA and West Virginia.

A year ago the Jets when 10-6 thanks to a productive defense. Early this season that unit took a step back when it became obvious that their secondary was no longer elite in pass coverage. The Jet D has further regressed recently with the pass rush no longer being a force. At this point the only positive on the entire team is their run defense; that alone is not going to win many games. The players feel that Ryan Fitzpatrick gives the Jets the best chance at winning, but with seven losses their season is over. Head Coach Todd Bowles succumbed, fearing he would lose the locker room. That short-sighted view is a great example of why the Jets have not been a championship team since before Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 17
Patriots -7½ (two units) . . . . . over 46 . . . . . New England -360

Final Score: Patriots 22, Jets 17 ✓
Patriots -7½ xx . . . . . over 46 x . . . . . Patriots -360 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football

★★★★★ 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs at 7-3 Denver Broncos
Sunday November 27 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Broncos -3½ . . . . over/under 39 . . . . DEN -185, KAN +165
Broadcast in all markets.

The Broncos are healthy and playing at home. Kansas City’s injuries are becoming a problem. Without CB Marcus Peters KC had nobody to cover Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans last week. Peters and DT Dontari Poe are questionable, but LB Dee Ford, DE Jaye Howard and WR Jeremy Maclin are all out. Early on this year KC feasted on victories against the Jets, Saints, Colts, Jaguars and Panthers. This game opens up a brutal schedule to finish the season: at Denver, at Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, Denver again and then at San Diego.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
Chiefs +3½ . . . . . over 39 (one unit) . . . . . Kansas City +165

Final Score: Chiefs 30, Broncos 27 (OT) x
Chiefs +3½ ✓ . . . . . over 39 . . . . . Chiefs +165 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football

★★★★ 4-6 Green Bay Packers at 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles
Monday November 28 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters
Eagles -4 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . PHI -200, GNB +170
Broadcast in all markets.

Green Bay’s defense has been absolutely ravaged by injuries and has struggled mightily. On the other hand the Packers know their season is on the line, would like to make up for last week’s embarrassment on national television, and Philadelphia’s offensive line and passing game do not compare to Washington’s. The Packers desperately need a win, and still have a solid shot at the division title in the mediocre NFC North. That being said, is it possible to have faith in a team on a four-game losing streak? With a defense that has allowed 38 points per game in that stretch, including 89 points in the last two?

Prediction: Eagles 34, Packers 31
Packers +4 . . . . . over 47½ (two units) . . . . . Green Bay +170

Final Score: Packers 27, Eagles 13 x
Packers +4 ✓ . . . . . over 47½ xx . . . . . Packers +170 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Thursday Games

Prediction: Vikings 20, Lions 17
Vikings +2 . . . . under 42 . . . . . Minnesota +115
Final Score: Lions 16, Vikings 13 x
Vikings +2 x . . . . under 42 ✓ . . . . . Vikings +115 x

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 24
Cowboys -6 . . . . over 52½ . . . . . Dallas -260
Final Score: Cowboys 31, Redskins 26 ✓
Cowboys -6 x . . . . over 52½ ✓ . . . . . Cowboys -260 ✓

Prediction: Steelers 27, Colts 13
Steelers -8 (two units) . . . . under 49½ (one unit) . . . . . Pittsburgh -360
Final Score: Steelers 28, Colts 7 ✓
Steelers -8 ✓✓ . . . . over 49½ x . . . . . Steelers -360 ✓

 

NFL Week 12 Parlays and Teasers

3-Team Parlay (two units): xx
Cardinals at Falcons over 51 ✓
Packers at Eagles over 47½ x
Panthers at Raiders (-3) [-push-]

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Cardinals at Falcons over 45 ✓
Packers at Eagles over 41½ x
Chiefs at Broncos over 33 ✓
Jets vs Patriots -1½ ✓
Jaguars at Bills -1½ ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week I hit on both a parlay (Lions -6 vs Jaguars, Patriots -11½ at 49ers and Raiders -6 vs Texans) as well as a 5-team teaser (Lions, Pats, Bills at Cincy, Bucs at KC and Ravens at Dallas). Those two multi-game payoffs led to one of the better weeks of the season.

Week 11 Results:
11-3 Straight Up
9-4 Against the Spread
6-7 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 5-0, +1000
1-unit plays: 1-2, -120
3-Game Parlay: 1u, +600
5-Game Teaser: 2u, +900
16 units invested
9-2, +2380 on $1760 risk.
135.2% ROI

Year to Date Results:
93-66-2 Straight Up
87-69-4 Against the Spread
88-72 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 29-13, +2990
1-unit plays: 34-22-1, +970
Parlays: 3-6, +1740
Teasers: 6-3, +3050
80-49-2, +9480 on original $2310 risk.
410.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
41.0% ROI on $23,100 (210 units) of total weekly investments.

9-2, +2380 on 16 units (+135.2%) in Week 11.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 12 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Patriots favored by 9 at Jets

John Morgan
November 18, 2016 at 7:00 am ET

Earlier this week the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their ‘look ahead’ betting lines for NFL Week 12. These odds are published in advance of any of the prior week’s games being played, including Carolina’s 23-20 Thursday night victory over New Orleans. Early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not take place for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the betting lines on a team that may be overrated or underrated due to the most recent result – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

Once again the New England Patriots are the biggest favorite of the week despite playing on the road, this time by nine points over the stumbling Jets. Tennessee listed as a one point favorite over Chicago is the narrowest spread of the week. The Bears and Jets are two of five home underdogs in week twelve. Despite losing four in a row the Steelers are favored by three at Indy; the Giants are favored by 6½ at winless Cleveland; and Tampa Bay is a 6½ point home dog to the Seahawks.

Week 12 features five division games, two of which are part of the Thanksgiving Day triple header. NFC rivalries start Turkey Day, commencing with Minnesota at Detroit and then followed by Washington at Dallas. Sunday finishes with two AFC rivalry games that swapped places for Sunday Night Football. Originally the Patriots were scheduled to play the Jets on NBC. Thanks to Gang Green already totaling more losses in their first ten games than they compiled in all of 2015, the Pats-Jets game was removed from prime time. The Chiefs and Broncos both have seven victories already, tied for the most in the AFC with New England and Oakland. End result is that Kansas City at Denver will be the showcase game on Sunday night, and rightfully so.

The two other prime time games look interesting as well, which is a welcome sight after a season full of shoddy matchups on Thursday and Monday nights. On Thanksgiving night the Colts host Pittsburgh in a game that could have significant playoff implications once the regular season ends. And on Monday night the NFC’s version of the slumping Steelers – the Green Bay Packers – travel to Philadelphia to take on the 5-4 Eagles.

Other games of note in Week 12 include Cincinnati at Baltimore in the AFC North, San Diego at Houston, Arizona at Atlanta and Carolina at Oakland. Why so many decent games for a change? Perhaps it has something to do with not having a half dozen teams off with a bye. Sit back, feast and enjoy.

 

NFL Week 12 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

5-4 Minnesota Vikings at 5-4 Detroit Lions (-3)
Thursday November 24 at 12:30 pm ET on CBS

5-3-1 Washington Redskins at 8-1 Dallas Cowboys (-6½)
Thursday November 24 at 4:30 pm ET on FOX

4-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at 4-5 Indianapolis Colts
Thursday November 24 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

4-6 San Diego Chargers at 6-3 Houston Texans (-2)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

5-5 Tennessee Titans (-1) at 2-7 Chicago Bears
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars at 4-5 Buffalo Bills (-7)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

3-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-4 Baltimore Ravens (-1½)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

4-4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 6-4 Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

1-8 San Francisco 49ers at 5-4 Miami Dolphins (-8)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

4-5 Los Angeles Rams at 4-5 New Orleans Saints (-6)
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

6-3 New York Giants (-6½) at 0-10 Cleveland Browns
Sunday November 27 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

6-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (-6½) at 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday November 27 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

7-2 New England Patriots (-9) at 3-7 New York Jets
Sunday November 27 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

3-6 Carolina Panthers at 7-2 Oakland Raiders (-3½)
Sunday November 27 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

7-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 7-3 Denver Broncos (-3)
Sunday November 27 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

4-5 Green Bay Packers at 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Monday November 28 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

No animals were harmed in the publishing of this blog.

Seahawks at Patriots: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds and More

John Morgan
November 10, 2016 at 12:00 am ET

Super Bowl 49 was arguably the most exciting and memorable championship game in the history of the National Football League. On Sunday NFL fans will be treated to a rematch of that epic event as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Currently these two clubs are favorites to represent their respective conferences at NRG Stadium in Houston on February 5 for Super Bowl 51.

 

 

Who: 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (1st in NFC West, 2nd in NFC) at 7-1 New England Patriots (1st in AFC East, 1st in AFC).

What: 2016 NFL Week Ten Game of the Week.

When: Sunday November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA; FieldTurf surface.

Weather: 10% chance of precipitation. Clear skies with a daytime high of 48° and overnight low of 30°. Winds at 5-10 mph; game time temperature in the mid to high thirties. Keep in mind that this is New England, so the forecast could very well change between now and kickoff.

Coaches: Pete Carroll is in his 11th year as an NFL head coach. Carroll is 98-69-1 in the regular season, and 9-6 in 15 playoff games. Now in his seventh year with Seattle, Petey is 65-38-1 (.630) with the Seahawks, plus 8-4 in the playoffs. Carroll’s teams have won two conference championships and one Super Bowl; his clubs have made it to the playoffs in seven of his ten years as head coach.

Bill Belichick is now in his 22nd year as an NFL head coach, with a 230-114 (.669) regular season record. BB also has 14 playoff appearances, including the last seven in a row. Belichick is 23-10 in the playoffs (22-9, .710 with the Patriots) with four Lombardi trophies and six conference championships. The Hoodie also has two Super Bowl rings as defensive coordinator for the Giants.

Odds: In the early advanced look-ahead lines published on Tuesday November 1 the Patriots were listed as 7½ point favorites. Those odds remained the same after Seattle’s victory over Buffalo on Monday night. As of Tuesday the over/under is 49. Heading into Week Ten the Patriots were listed as favorites at +200 (2:1) to win the Super Bowl. Next up are two NFC teams. The Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are both dropped from +1000 (10:1) to +800 (8:1) to win it all after their week nine victories.

Head-to-Head Series Record: Including the Super Bowl victory, the Patriots lead the all-time series 9-8. The two teams have met three times in the regular season since Bill Belichick became head coach of the Patriots. The Pats won 30-20 in the last game at Foxboro in 2004. In December of 2008 the Patriots won 24-21 when Sammy Morris vaulted in to the end zone on 4th and one with 2:44 left to play. In the U mad bro game of 2012 the Seahawks came from behind for a 24-23 home victory. Carroll has a 2-2 career record versus the Patriots, splitting two games in 1994 when he was with the Jets. Belichick is 4-2 against Seattle, including two games when he was with the Browns.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.

As you can see below this is a classic NFL great offense versus great defense matchup.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus Seattle Seahawks Defense

Scoring per Game: Patriots 27.1 (6th); Seahawks 16.8 (3rd)

Yardage per Game: Patriots 380 (7th); Seahawks 333 (9th)

First Downs per Game: Patriots 21.1 (14th); Seahawks 20.4 (15th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.0 (5th); Seahawks 4.9 (4th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 35.1 (8th); Seahawks 29.0 (7th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.56 (4th); Seahawks 1.36 (3rd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .744 (6th); Seahawks .655 (5th)

Points per Play: Patriots .429 (3rd); Seahawks .248 (1st)

Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.2 (1st); Seahawks 1.6 (1st)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.2 (8th); Seahawks 1.2 (2nd)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (6th); Seahawks 43.5% (2nd)

Plays per Game: Patriots 63.2 (21st); Seahawks 67.6 (29th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 6.38 (3rd); Seahawks 6.38 (29th)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Patriots 47.2% (4th); Seahawks 42.9% (26th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.9 (11th); Seahawks 1.5 (4th)

Punts per Game: Patriots 4.38 (8th); Seahawks 5.00 (9th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 116.4 (8th); Seahawks 98.8 (12th)

Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.88 (26th); Seahawks 3.53 (5th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 264 (9th); Seahawks 234 (10th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.90 (2nd); Seahawks 7.02 (14th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.48 (2nd); Seahawks 6.45 (11th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 69.9% (1st); Seahawks 62.4% (11th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 118.8 (2nd); Seahawks 81.6 (6th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots  Patriots +16 (2nd), 16/0; Seahawks  Patriots +0 (5th), 6/6

Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 21.8 (23rd); Seahawks 22.6 (14th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 9.4 (1st); Seahawks 13.6 (11th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.13 (11th); Seahawks 3.38 (1st)

Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 13.0 (12th); Seahawks 20.6 (2nd)

 

Seattle Seahawks Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Seahawks 20.3 (23rd); Patriots 16.5 (2nd)

Yardage: Seahawks 332 (26th); Patriots 354 (15th)

First Downs: Seahawks 18.0 (29th); Patriots 20.8 (20th)

Yards per Play: Seahawks 5.5 (16th); Patriots 5.4 (12th)

Yards per Drive: Seahawks 29.0 (26th); Patriots 32.5 (16th)

Points per Drive: Seahawks 1.62 (26th); Patriots 1.53 (6th)

Drive Success Rate: Seahawks .654 (27th); Patriots .700 (14th)

Points per Play: Seahawks .336 (19th); Patriots .252 (3rd)

Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 2.1 (24th); Patriots 1.9 (5th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 1.8 (15th); Patriots 1.6 (12th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Seahawks 56.0% (16th); Patriots 59.1% (22nd)

Plays per Game: Seahawks 60.2 (29th); Patriots 65.5 (21st)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Seahawks 4.50 (26th); Patriots 5.38 (21st)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Seahawks 36.4% (24th); Patriots 40.6% (20th)

Punts per Offensive Score: Seahawks 1.3 (20th); Patriots 1.5 (6th)

Punts per Game: Seahawks 5.00 (17th); Patriots 4.50 (19th)

Rushing Yards: Seahawks 75.4 (30th); Patriots 101.6 (15th)

Yards per Carry: Seahawks 3.21 (30th); Patriots 4.15 (16th)

Passing Yards: Seahawks 257 (13th); Patriots 253 (18th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.92 (5th); Patriots 6.67 (7th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.39; Patriots 6.15

Completion Percentage: Seahawks 66.9% (7th); Patriots 62.5% (14th)

Passer Rating: Seahawks 95.9 (11th); Patriots 84.9 (10th)

TD Passes/Picks: Seahawks +5 (20th), 8/3; Patriots -4 (12th), 9/5

Complete Passes per Game: Seahawks 23.2 (17th); Patriots 24.6 (25th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Seahawks 11.5 (5th); Patriots 14.8 (5th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Seahawks 2.00 (9th); Patriots 1.63 (28th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Seahawks 18.5 (27th); Patriots 10.3 (27th)

 

Turnovers

Turnover Differential: Patriots +0.38 per game, 8th (+3 total); Seahawks +0.25 per game, 12th (+2 total)

Patriot Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Seahawk Takeaways: 1.00 per game, 23rd (8 total)

Seahawk Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Patriot Takeaways: 1.13 per game, 20th (9 total)

 

Penalties

Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.5 (11th); Seahawks 8.1 (26th)

Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 61.9 (17th); Seahawks 71.9 (27th)

Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Seahawks 6.4 (24th)

Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 57.5 (22nd); Seahawks 56.1 (23rd)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Total Weighted DVOA: Patriots 20.2% (4th); Seahawks 18.8% (6th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 19.2% (3rd); Seahawks -3.3% (18th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots 2.1% (19th); Seahawks -21.7% (3rd)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 2.4% (7th); Seahawks 0.7% (12th)

 

This game will be a very difficult task for the Patriots. The Seattle Seahawks still possess a formidable defense on all three levels. Coming off a bye the Pats do have the advantage of being both healthy and well rested, as well as having extra time to prepare for their opponent. Conversely Seattle not only has to overcome the challenge of traveling across three time zones, they also have to do so on a short week after playing Monday night. The Seahawks will have extra motivation of looking for revenge for their Super Bowl loss, but that extra adrenaline won’t be enough. I’ll take Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home with extra preparation time over the Legion of Doom defense.

Early Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 17

 

NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
November 5, 2016 at 6:30 pm ET

Welcome to November and the half way point of the NFL 2016 regular season. Although Week 9 loses some luster due to the New England Patriots being off with a bye, there are still some interesting games worth viewing. There are also four games with favorites facing the challenge of winning on the road. Atlanta was the the first to complete that task Thursday, blowing out the Buccaneers in the second half en route to a 43-28 victory.

The best game features the reigning Super Bowl champs versus a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs for 14 years. Denver travels to Oakland in a battle of AFC West rivals on Sunday night. Both clubs are 6-2, tied for the division lead – and one game behind the Patriots for home field in the AFC playoff race. The Raiders won the last meeting in December to snap an eight game losing streak to the Broncos.

Corner Aqib Talib has been ruled out due to a back injury and his backup, Kayvon Webster, is questionable with a hamstring ailment. That could open things up for Oakland’s receiving corps. Amari Cooper (52 receptions for 787 yards, 15.1 yards per catch) and Michael Crabtree (47 receptions for 569 yards, six touchdowns) can cause problems for any defense, and are more than capable of exploiting a depleted secondary.

Week Nine features four other rivalry games in the early time slot that will impact division races. Minnesota has lost two in a row and hosts Detroit. A win by the Lions would create a logjam in the NFC North. The Giants host the Eagles; both clubs are 4-3, two games behind Dallas in the NFC East. Pittsburgh gets Ben Roethlisberger back just in time for their biannual bloodbath with the Ravens. The Steelers are clinging on to a half game lead over the Bengals and a one game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North. Also on tap early is Miami hosting the Jets. Although neither team has a realistic chance at a division crown both are still in contention for a wild card playoff berth.

 

NFL Week 9 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 4-4 Detroit Lions at 5-2 Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin.
Vikings -6½ . . . . over/under 41 . . . . MIN -260, DET +220
Broadcast in Alaska, Fort Myers FL, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Topeka KS, Louisville KY, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Toledo OH, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

After losing their first game of the season two weeks ago, I thought for sure that the Vikings would rebound with a big win against a 1-6 Bears team. Minnesota looked awful, managing to make a pathetic Chicago club look good. Games are still won and lost in the trenches, which is bad news for the Vikes. Their offensive line has not been getting the job done, particularly at both tackles.

All that led to the sudden resignation of Viking offensive coordinator Norv Turner this week. Pat Shurmur was Sam Bradford’s OC in St. Louis, and replaces Turner. Expect a shift to a quick-release passing game with short routes to help keep the pressure off Bradford. Detroit’s defense ranks last in DVOA, which is just what Minnesota needs to get their offense back on track.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Lions 13
Vikings -6½ (one unit) . . . . . under 41 . . . . . Minnesota -260

Final Score: Lions 22, Vikings 16 (OT) x
Vikings -6½ x . . . . under 41 ✓ . . . . Vikings -260 x

 

★★★★ 4-3 Philadelphia Eagles at 4-3 New York Giants
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
Giants -2½ . . . . over/under 43 . . . . NYG -140, PHI +120
Broadcast in New England, DC, parts of Florida (Ocala, Orlando, West Palm Beach), Atlanta GA, Salisbury MD, New York, Pennsylvania (except Pittsburgh), Norfolk VA, West Virginia and Seattle WA.

Philadelphia began the season 3-0 thanks in large part to their +6 turnover differential. After zero giveaways in those three games Philly has turned the ball over seven times since, winning just one of their last four games. The Eagle offensive line has struggled and the play calling has become overly conservative. The Giant defense has improved over last year. New York is allowing only 3.6 yards per carry (6th) and 6.3 yards per pass attempt (4th).

Prediction: Giants 24, Eagles 17
Giants -2½ (one unit) . . . . . under 43 . . . . . New York -140

Final Score: Giants 28, Eagles 23 ✓
Giants -2½ . . . . under 43 x . . . . Giants -140 ✓

 

★★★ 6-1 Dallas Cowboys at 0-8 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman and Peter Schrager.
Cowboys -7 . . . . over/under 49 . . . . DAL -300, CLE +250
Broadcast in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, parts of Florida (Panama City, Tallahassee, Tampa), Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas (except Topeka), Kentucky (except Louisville), Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, Ohio (except Toledo), Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Richmond VA, Washington (except Seattle), West Virginia and Wyoming.

The Browns are surrendering 8.4 yards per pass attempt (31st) and 4.8 yards per rush (29th). Cleveland keeps finding unique ways to lose each week. Dallas on the other hand took a step forward in Week 8. The Cowboys found a way to come back late and win, despite a rather weak performance through the first three quarters.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Browns 14
Cowboys -7 (two units) . . . . . under 49 . . . . . Dallas -300

Final Score: Cowboys 35, Browns 10 ✓
Cowboys -7 ✓✓ . . . . under 49 ✓ . . . . Cowboys -300 ✓

 

NFL Week 9 Early Games on CBS

★★ 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots.
Chiefs -7½ . . . . over/under 44 . . . . KAN -300, JAC +250
Broadcast in northern Florida (Gainesville, Panama City, Tallahassee), southern Georgia (Albany, Savannah), Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Fargo ND, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Nick Foles replaces Alex Smith (head injury) at quarterback for the Chiefs. KC is also down to Charcandrick West at running back since Spencer Ware (concussion) is out and Jamaal Charles (knee) was paced on IR a week ago. Despite that Kansas City is favored by a touchdown, which led me to think that I should pounce on the Jaguars plus the points. On closer inspection the line actually does make sense when you look at Andy Reid’s opponent.

The Jaguars may play with a bit more intensity this week after seeing offensive coordinator Greg Olsen fired. The Jags rank last in third down conversions (30.3%), penalty yards per game (91.3) and takeaways (5, or 0.7 per game). The Jacksonville offensive line can’t open up any holes, resulting in a running game that is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and 73 yards per game. With TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory being unproductive the play calling has become predictable. Jacksonville owns the NFL’s most unbalanced offense, with only 19.1 runs per game (last) and the highest percentage of pass plays (69.6%). Tamba Hali and the rest of the Kansas City defensive front seven should dominate this game.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 13
Chiefs -7½ (one unit) . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Kansas City -300

Final Score: Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14 ✓
Chiefs -7½ x . . . . under 44 ✓ . . . . Chiefs -300 ✓

 

★★ 3-5 New York Jets at 3-4 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl.
Dolphins -3½ . . . . over/under 44 . . . . MIA -185, NYJ +165
Broadcast in western New England, New York and southern Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, Tampa, West Palm Beach).

The Jets struggled to beat the winless Browns last week. Now they face a rested Dolphin team that defeated Pittsburgh and Buffalo in their last two games. Jay Ajayi began the year in the doghouse, inactive for one game and totaling just 18 carries through week four. Aided by a healthier Dolphin offensive line, Ajayi has rushed for 418 yards in his last two games and is now averaging a whopping 6.3 yards per carry.

The Jet secondary has regressed mightily but their defensive front seven is still solid. Defensive ends Leonard Williams and Mo Wilkerson, along with linebackers David Harris and Sheldon Richardson are capable of controlling any game. The Jet defensive line versus the Miami offensive line should determine the outcome. Or at least the lead until Ryan Fitzpatrick throws a pick six.

Looking ahead, both teams teams have interesting second half schedules. Miami plays the Chargers, Rams, Niners, Ravens, Cardinals and Jets before hosting New England in what will probably be a meaningless week 17 game for the Patriots. The challenge for the Dolphins will be that five of their next seven games are on the road. The Jets are on the road just twice the rest of the way, and one of those games is at San Francisco. However, Gang Green has to play the Patriots twice.

Whichever team loses on Sunday will see their already slim chances of a wild card playoff spot shrink dramatically. The AFC West will likely send three teams to the playoffs this year.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
Jets +3½ . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Miami -185

Final Score: Dolphins 27, Jets 23 ✓
Jets +3½ x . . . . under 44 x . . . . Dolphins -185 ✓

 

★★★★ 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-4 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 6 at 1:00 pm ET; Ian Eagle, Rich Gannon, Evan Washburn.
Steelers -2 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . PIT -130, BAL +110
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of western New England, Florida, southern Georgia (Albany, Savannah), Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Fargo ND, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

My first inclination was that I must be missing something. The Steelers should be favored here with or without Ben Roethlisberger, right? Pittsburgh has not looked good at all in their last two road games though, losing to Philadelphia and Miami by a combined score of 64-18. In the past Big Ben has been so-so in his first game back from an injury, but Baltimore’s defense is banged up and may not be able to generate much of a pass rush. The Steelers get DE Cameron Heyward back, which should resolve many of their problems on defense.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Ravens 20
Steelers -2 . . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -130

Final Score: Ravens 21, Steelers 14 x
Steelers -2 x . . . . over 43½ x . . . . Steelers -130 x

 

NFL Week 9 Late Games on FOX

★★ 3-4 New Orleans at 1-6 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 6 at 4:05 pm ET; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale.
Saints -4 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . NOR -200, SFO +170
Broadcast in northern California, Louisiana (except Shreveport) and Mississippi.

The Saints are 1-2 outside the loud and friendly confines of the Mercedes Dome, but let’s not overthink this. The Forty Niners are horrible. There is no valid reason to be placing any money on a team that is as bad as San Francisco is if you are getting less than double digit points.

Prediction: Saints 34, Niners 20
Saints -4 (three units) . . . . . over 52½ . . . . . New Orleans -200

Final Score: Saints 41, Niners 23 ✓
Saints -4 ✓✓✓ . . . . over 52½ ✓ . . . . Saints -200 ✓

 

★★ 2-5 Carolina Panthers at 3-4 Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 6 at 4:05 pm ET; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver.
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . CAR -155, LAR +135
Broadcast in southern California, Jacksonville FL, Miami FL, Georgia (except Atlanta), Baltimore MD, Kansas City MO, Springfield MO, North Carolina, Pittsburgh PA, South Carolina and Roanoke VA.

When healthy the Ram defensive line can cause nightmares, with too many capable players to block. Carolina had a nice win last week, but that was against an Arizona team traveling cross country after an overtime game. It’s just too difficult to put much faith in Jeff Fisher and the LA offense to wager on this game though.

Prediction: Rams 20, Panthers 17 x
Rams +3 . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Los Angeles +135

Final Score: Panthers 13, Rams 10
Rams +3 -push- . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . Rams +135 x

 

NFL Week 9 Late Games on CBS

★★★★ 3-5 Indianapolis Colts at 4-3 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 6 at 4:25 pm ET; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson.
Packers -7 . . . . over/under 54½ . . . . GNB -320, IND +260
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Huntsville AL, Yuma AZ, southern California, San Francisco CA, Bowling Green KY, Tupelo MS, Cape Girardeau MO, Reno NV, Eugene OR and Tennessee.

Green Bay’s pass coverage could not stop Mohamed Sanu nor Taylor Gabriel in last week’s loss to the Falcons. Now they get to face T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Hilton looked bad last week due to a hamstring injury, so the Pack may catch a break there. Green Bay has injury concerns as well, with RB James Starks and TE Jared Cook out, and WR Randall Cobb dealing with his own hamstring injury. If Nick Foles and the KC receivers could make Indy’s pass defense look as bad as they did last week, I’ll bank on Aaron Rodgers being able to do the same.

Prediction: Packers 28, Colts 17
Packers -7 (two units) . . . . . under 54½ . . . . . Green Bay -320

Final Score: Colts 31, Packers 26 x
Packers -7 xx . . . . under 54½ x . . . . Packers -320 x

 

★★ 4-4 Tennessee Titans at 3-5 San Diego Chargers
Sunday, November 6 at 4:25 pm ET; Kevin Harlan and Dan Fouts.
Chargers -4½ . . . . over/under 47 . . . . SDG -200, TEN +170
Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Yuma AZ, southern California, Bowling Green KY, Tupelo MS, Cape Girardeau MO, Reno NV, Eugene OR and Tennessee.

Both of these defenses have vastly improved since last year. Rookie Joey Bosa has been a positive influence for the Chargers. Tennessee is allowing 4.0 yards per carry (10th) and 83 rushing yards per game (5th), though their pass defense still has a ways to go. That’s not good when going on the road to face Philip Rivers, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Titans 17
Chargers -4½ (one unit) . . . . . under 47 . . . . . San Diego -200

Final Score: Chargers 43, Titans 35 ✓
Chargers -4½ . . . . under 47 x . . . . Chargers -200 ✓

 

NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football on NBC

★★★★★ 6-2 Denver Broncos at 6-2 Oakland Raiders
Sunday, November 6 at 8:30 pm ET; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya.
Raiders -1½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . OAK -125, DEN +105
Broadcast in all markets.

A rare treat for NFL fans: two teams well above .500 in prime time. Denver has the better defense, Oakland the better offense. With Aqib Talib out I like the Raiders here.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Broncos 24
Raiders -1½ . . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Oakland -125

Final Score: Raiders 30, Broncos 20 ✓
Raiders -1½ ✓ . . . . over 43½ ✓ . . . . Raiders -125 ✓

 

NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football on BSPN

★★★★ 4-4 Buffalo Bills at 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks
Monday, November 7 at 8:30 pm ET; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters.
Seahawks -7 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . SEA -300, BUF +250
Broadcast in all markets.

Seattle’s defense is not as strong as in years past. Could they get caught looking ahead to next week’s game at New England?

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Bills 17
Bills +7 . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Seattle -300

Final Score: Seahawks 31, Bills 25 ✓
Bills +7 ✓ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Seahawks -300 ✓

 

NFL Week 9 Byes

New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Washington Redskins.

 

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football

With two bad defenses, I expected this to be a high scoring game. It did not start out that way, but the Falcon passing game gashed Tampa Bay from the last drive of the first half on. Atlanta being a road team on the short week was not a factor in large part due to the relatively short distance that needed to be traveled. Sweeping a division rival is always difficult, but the biggest factor was that Atlanta is simply a far superior (and healthier) team right now.

Prediction: Falcons 35, Buccaneers 24
Falcons -3½ (one unit) . . . . over 50½ (three units) . . . . Atlanta -175

Final Score: Falcons 43, Buccaneers 28 ✓
Falcons -3½ . . . . over 50½ ✓✓✓ . . . . Falcons -175 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (one unit): x
Saints -4 at Niners ✓
Cowboys -7 at Browns ✓
Packers -7 vs Colts x

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (one unit):
Saints +2 at Niners ✓
Cowboys -1 at Browns ✓
Bills +13 at Seahawks ✓
Giants +3½ vs Eagles ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week was one of those rare instances where everything just fell in to place. I had full confidence that the Patriots would continue their history of soundly defeating a team they had lost to earlier in the season. In my first five-unit play of the year the Pats came through, winning easily and covering the spread by 9½ points.

Similarly I took the Broncos (only -4 at home) for three units to beat San Diego in a revenge game. Things looked dicey when Philadelphia was still up by 10 in the fourth quarter though. I not only had two units on Dallas -4½, I also had two units on the Cowboys in a parlay and two more on a teaser. Dallas not only rallied, but rather than win by a field goal (and not cover the spread) they forced overtime. The Cowboys then perfected the comeback by winning with a touchdown to cover those 4½ points.

Week 8 Results:
8-4-1 Straight Up
8-5 Against the Spread
7-6 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 2-0, +600
2-unit plays: 3-1, +380
1-unit plays: 3-1, +190
3-Game Parlay: 2u, 1-0, +1200
4-Game Teaser: 2u, 1-0, +600
27 units invested
11-2, +3470 on $2970 risk
116.8% ROI

Year to Date Results:
67-51-2 Straight Up
67-50-3 Against the Spread
66-54 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 4-5-1, -480
2-unit plays: 20-11, +1630
1-unit plays: 29-12-1, +1570
Parlays: 2-4, +1360
Teasers: 4-2, +2070
60-34-2, +6760 on original $2310 risk.
292.6% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
38.7% ROI on $17,490 (159 units) of total weekly investments.

11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

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