Super Bowl 49 was arguably the most exciting and memorable championship game in the history of the National Football League. On Sunday NFL fans will be treated to a rematch of that epic event as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Currently these two clubs are favorites to represent their respective conferences at NRG Stadium in Houston on February 5 for Super Bowl 51.
Who: 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (1st in NFC West, 2nd in NFC) at 7-1 New England Patriots (1st in AFC East, 1st in AFC).
What: 2016 NFL Week Ten Game of the Week.
When: Sunday November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA; FieldTurf surface.
Weather: 10% chance of precipitation. Clear skies with a daytime high of 48° and overnight low of 30°. Winds at 5-10 mph; game time temperature in the mid to high thirties. Keep in mind that this is New England, so the forecast could very well change between now and kickoff.
Coaches: Pete Carroll is in his 11th year as an NFL head coach. Carroll is 98-69-1 in the regular season, and 9-6 in 15 playoff games. Now in his seventh year with Seattle, Petey is 65-38-1 (.630) with the Seahawks, plus 8-4 in the playoffs. Carroll’s teams have won two conference championships and one Super Bowl; his clubs have made it to the playoffs in seven of his ten years as head coach.
Bill Belichick is now in his 22nd year as an NFL head coach, with a 230-114 (.669) regular season record. BB also has 14 playoff appearances, including the last seven in a row. Belichick is 23-10 in the playoffs (22-9, .710 with the Patriots) with four Lombardi trophies and six conference championships. The Hoodie also has two Super Bowl rings as defensive coordinator for the Giants.
Odds: In the early advanced look-ahead lines published on Tuesday November 1 the Patriots were listed as 7½ point favorites. Those odds remained the same after Seattle’s victory over Buffalo on Monday night. As of Tuesday the over/under is 49. Heading into Week Ten the Patriots were listed as favorites at +200 (2:1) to win the Super Bowl. Next up are two NFC teams. The Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are both dropped from +1000 (10:1) to +800 (8:1) to win it all after their week nine victories.
Head-to-Head Series Record: Including the Super Bowl victory, the Patriots lead the all-time series 9-8. The two teams have met three times in the regular season since Bill Belichick became head coach of the Patriots. The Pats won 30-20 in the last game at Foxboro in 2004. In December of 2008 the Patriots won 24-21 when Sammy Morris vaulted in to the end zone on 4th and one with 2:44 left to play. In the U mad bro game of 2012 the Seahawks came from behind for a 24-23 home victory. Carroll has a 2-2 career record versus the Patriots, splitting two games in 1994 when he was with the Jets. Belichick is 4-2 against Seattle, including two games when he was with the Browns.
Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.
As you can see below this is a classic NFL great offense versus great defense matchup.
New England Patriots Offense versus Seattle Seahawks Defense
Scoring per Game: Patriots 27.1 (6th); Seahawks 16.8 (3rd)
Yardage per Game: Patriots 380 (7th); Seahawks 333 (9th)
First Downs per Game: Patriots 21.1 (14th); Seahawks 20.4 (15th)
Yards per Play: Patriots 6.0 (5th); Seahawks 4.9 (4th)
Yards per Drive: Patriots 35.1 (8th); Seahawks 29.0 (7th)
Points per Drive: Patriots 2.56 (4th); Seahawks 1.36 (3rd)
Drive Success Rate: Patriots .744 (6th); Seahawks .655 (5th)
Points per Play: Patriots .429 (3rd); Seahawks .248 (1st)
Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.2 (1st); Seahawks 1.6 (1st)
Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.2 (8th); Seahawks 1.2 (2nd)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (6th); Seahawks 43.5% (2nd)
Plays per Game: Patriots 63.2 (21st); Seahawks 67.6 (29th)
Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 6.38 (3rd); Seahawks 6.38 (29th)
Third Down Conversion Percentage: Patriots 47.2% (4th); Seahawks 42.9% (26th)
Punts per Score: Patriots 0.9 (11th); Seahawks 1.5 (4th)
Punts per Game: Patriots 4.38 (8th); Seahawks 5.00 (9th)
Rushing Yards: Patriots 116.4 (8th); Seahawks 98.8 (12th)
Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.88 (26th); Seahawks 3.53 (5th)
Passing Yards: Patriots 264 (9th); Seahawks 234 (10th)
Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.90 (2nd); Seahawks 7.02 (14th)
Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.48 (2nd); Seahawks 6.45 (11th)
Completion Percentage: Patriots 69.9% (1st); Seahawks 62.4% (11th)
Passer Rating: Patriots 118.8 (2nd); Seahawks 81.6 (6th)
TD Passes/Picks: Patriots Patriots +16 (2nd), 16/0; Seahawks Patriots +0 (5th), 6/6
Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 21.8 (23rd); Seahawks 22.6 (14th)
Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 9.4 (1st); Seahawks 13.6 (11th)
Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.13 (11th); Seahawks 3.38 (1st)
Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 13.0 (12th); Seahawks 20.6 (2nd)
Seattle Seahawks Offense versus New England Patriots Defense
Scoring: Seahawks 20.3 (23rd); Patriots 16.5 (2nd)
Yardage: Seahawks 332 (26th); Patriots 354 (15th)
First Downs: Seahawks 18.0 (29th); Patriots 20.8 (20th)
Yards per Play: Seahawks 5.5 (16th); Patriots 5.4 (12th)
Yards per Drive: Seahawks 29.0 (26th); Patriots 32.5 (16th)
Points per Drive: Seahawks 1.62 (26th); Patriots 1.53 (6th)
Drive Success Rate: Seahawks .654 (27th); Patriots .700 (14th)
Points per Play: Seahawks .336 (19th); Patriots .252 (3rd)
Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 2.1 (24th); Patriots 1.9 (5th)
Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 1.8 (15th); Patriots 1.6 (12th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Seahawks 56.0% (16th); Patriots 59.1% (22nd)
Plays per Game: Seahawks 60.2 (29th); Patriots 65.5 (21st)
Third Down Conversions per Game: Seahawks 4.50 (26th); Patriots 5.38 (21st)
Third Down Conversion Percentage: Seahawks 36.4% (24th); Patriots 40.6% (20th)
Punts per Offensive Score: Seahawks 1.3 (20th); Patriots 1.5 (6th)
Punts per Game: Seahawks 5.00 (17th); Patriots 4.50 (19th)
Rushing Yards: Seahawks 75.4 (30th); Patriots 101.6 (15th)
Yards per Carry: Seahawks 3.21 (30th); Patriots 4.15 (16th)
Passing Yards: Seahawks 257 (13th); Patriots 253 (18th)
Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.92 (5th); Patriots 6.67 (7th)
Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.39; Patriots 6.15
Completion Percentage: Seahawks 66.9% (7th); Patriots 62.5% (14th)
Passer Rating: Seahawks 95.9 (11th); Patriots 84.9 (10th)
TD Passes/Picks: Seahawks +5 (20th), 8/3; Patriots -4 (12th), 9/5
Complete Passes per Game: Seahawks 23.2 (17th); Patriots 24.6 (25th)
Incomplete Passes per Game: Seahawks 11.5 (5th); Patriots 14.8 (5th)
Quarterback Sacks per Game: Seahawks 2.00 (9th); Patriots 1.63 (28th)
Sack Yardage Lost: Seahawks 18.5 (27th); Patriots 10.3 (27th)
Turnover Differential: Patriots +0.38 per game, 8th (+3 total); Seahawks +0.25 per game, 12th (+2 total)
Patriot Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Seahawk Takeaways: 1.00 per game, 23rd (8 total)
Seahawk Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Patriot Takeaways: 1.13 per game, 20th (9 total)
Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.5 (11th); Seahawks 8.1 (26th)
Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 61.9 (17th); Seahawks 71.9 (27th)
Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Seahawks 6.4 (24th)
Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 57.5 (22nd); Seahawks 56.1 (23rd)
Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings
Team Efficiency: Total Weighted DVOA: Patriots 20.2% (4th); Seahawks 18.8% (6th)
Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 19.2% (3rd); Seahawks -3.3% (18th)
Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots 2.1% (19th); Seahawks -21.7% (3rd)
Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 2.4% (7th); Seahawks 0.7% (12th)
This game will be a very difficult task for the Patriots. The Seattle Seahawks still possess a formidable defense on all three levels. Coming off a bye the Pats do have the advantage of being both healthy and well rested, as well as having extra time to prepare for their opponent. Conversely Seattle not only has to overcome the challenge of traveling across three time zones, they also have to do so on a short week after playing Monday night. The Seahawks will have extra motivation of looking for revenge for their Super Bowl loss, but that extra adrenaline won’t be enough. I’ll take Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home with extra preparation time over the Legion of Doom defense.
Early Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 17