Tag Archives: Week 10

NFL Week 10 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
November 12, 2017 at 7:00 am ET

NFL Week 10 has plenty of interesting story lines. On Sunday night the Patriots travel to their house of horrors, Denver’s Mile High Stadium. The Pats are 2-6 since 2005 in Colorado, and 4-18 in the Rockies since 1969. Despite that alarming trend the Patriots are 7½ point favorites as of Saturday night.

Since their week five bye the Broncos have been in a free fall with no end in sight. First there was a 13-point loss to the Giants, giving Big Blue their only win of 2017. That was followed by a shutout loss to the Chargers, then a five-turnover debacle against KC. Last week the one strong point for Denver, their defense, allowed 51 points. It was the most points allowed by the Broncos since 2010. On top of that the 28 point differential was the worst for Denver since the 2011 season of Tim Tebow.

There are plenty of other games worth watching as well. In the early time slot Minnesota is at Washington, and the Saints travel to Buffalo on a six-game winning streak. Then in the late afternoon time slot Dallas travels to Atlanta without Ezekiel Elliott. Roger Goodell wanted the NFL to have 12-month headlines, but these questionable suspensions and subsequent court cases are crushing the popularity of the sport. The week wraps up with Miami at Carolina on Monday night.

Most of the country will get Pittsburgh at Indy early on CBS. Fox has the early time slot split between the Saints-Bills in the east, and Minnesota-Washington in the west. The Pats-Broncos game is available most everywhere, though Hartford is stubbornly (and stupidly) opting to air the Giants game instead. smh…. For a full list of announcers and to see what games are being broadcast in your are, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.

 

Early Games on Fox

6-2 Minnesota Vikings at 4-4 Washington Redskins
Vikings favored by 1½; over/under 41 points; money line -125, +105

Washington has had injuries throughout their entire offensive line this season. They get three starters (LG Shawn Lauvo, C Spencer Long, RG Brandon Scherff) back this week. That should significantly help matters, but LT is still a sore spot. Minnesota Pro Bowl DE Everson Griffen already has ten sacks, and will make LT TJ Clemmings look incompetent.

Pick: Vikings 23, Redskins 17
Minnesota -1½, under 41

 

4-4 Green Bay Packers at 3-5 Chicago Bears
Bears favored by 5½; over/under 37½ points; money line -250, +210

It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Pack finishes the season in last place in the NFC North. Perhaps then they can use their early draft picks to shore up that Swiss cheese offensive line. Here’s a question: will Brett Hundley be able to make the roster on a CFL or Arena league team in 2018?

Pick: Bears 20, Packers 17
Packers +5½, under 37½

 

3-5 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 Tennessee Titans
Titans favored by 4½; over/under 40½ points; money line -220, +180

Cincinnati has given up 25 ppg over the last three weeks, losing two of three since their bye. Two of those games were against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, neither of which are offensive juggernauts. More alarming was the Bengals regression on offense last week, with a mere eight first downs and seven points scored.

Pick: Titans 20, Bengals 17
Cincinnati +4½, under 40½

 

6-2 New Orleans Saints at 5-3 Buffalo Bills
Saints favored by 3; over/under 47½ points; money line -145, +125

The Saints are overdue for a letdown loss, but will it come now? Here is dome team playing outside up north in the last half of the season against a team coming off an embarrassing loss. I just don’t think that the Bills can keep up with the New Orleans offense though. The Saints have a balanced attack and are playing complimentary football. That is something they have lacked since winning the Super Bowl eight years ago. Logically the Saints win, but I’m taking the Bills to bounce back in a slight upset. Buffalo wins their fifth straight home game.

Pick: Bills 24, Saints 20
Buffalo +3, under 47½

 

Early Games on CBS

6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-6 Indianapolis Colts
Steelers favored by 10; over/under 45 points; money line -500, +400

Pittsburgh has a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents on the road. That doesn’t mean the Colts will pull off the upset though; they are still awful. Indy has an atrocious minus-98 point differential already. To place that in perspective that is worse than even the one-win Giants, or the winless Browns and Niners.

Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 20
Indianapolis +10, over 45

 

3-5 Los Angeles Chargers at 5-3 Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars favored by 4½; over/under 41 points; money line -210, +180

RB Leonard Fournette will have fresh legs after three weeks off. He faces a Charger run defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry (28th) and 135 yards per game (31st). The Jacksonville defense is for real, allowing an NFL-best 14.6 points per game.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Chargers 13
Jacksonville -4½, under 41

 

4-5 New York Jets at 2-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jets favored by 2½; over/under 43½ points; money line -140, +120

Tampa Bay’s defense has been a sore spot all season. The Buccaneer defense generates no pass rush, with a league-worst eight sacks on the season. That has resulted in 7.9 yards per pass attempt (28th) and 24.8 points per game (26th). Give journeyman QB Josh McCown enough time and he will avoid critical mistakes and do just enough to win.

Pick: Jets 24, Bucs 20
Gang Green -2½, over 43½

 

0-8 Cleveland Browns at 4-4 Detroit Lions
Lions favored by 11; over/under 43½ points; money line -625, +450

The Cleveland defense has actually played well this year. The Browns are allowing only 2.9 yards per rush (1st) and 4.9 yards per play (8th). The offense though ranks at or near the bottom in nearly every statistical category. Detroit may be inconsistent, but they have far more talent and should win easily.

Pick: Lions 31, Browns 13
Detroit -11, over 43½

 

Late Afternoon Games

3-5 Houston Texans at 6-2 Los Angeles Rams
Rams favored by 11½; over/under 45½ points; money line -675, +475

This would have been a really great game to watch. Unfortunately it’s Tom Savage at QB rather than DeShaun Watson, and JJ Watt and Whitney Houston are sidelined as well. The Rams put up 51 points last week and now have to be considered a genuine contender to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. QB Jared Goff’s numbers through eight games: 2,030 yards passing with 13 TD against only 4 INT. Goff also leads the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 13.8 yards per completion.

Pick: Rams 27, Texans 13
Los Angeles -11½, under 45½

 

5-3 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Atlanta Falcons
Falcons favored by 3; over/under 48½ points; money line -150, +130

The Dallas offense has been clicking, and the Atlanta defense has been missing. The Cowboys will be without RB Ezekiel Elliott however. Perhaps more importantly all-pro LT Tyron Smith will also be inactive due to a groin injury. Atlanta needs to get their offense back in gear to keep their playoff hopes reasonably alive.

Pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 27
Dallas +3, over 48½

 

1-7 New York Giants at 0-9 San Francisco 49ers
Giants favored by 2½; over/under 42 points; money line -145, +125

Week after week I keep picking Santa Clara to win a game. Week after week the Miners find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Now they host Team Turmoil, traveling three time zones. The G-men have given up on their season and their coach is Dead Man Walking. The legend of Jimmy Garoppolo in the City by the Bay commences. Only masochists would tune in to watch a game between two teams with a combined 1-16 record.

Pick: Niners 3, Giants 2
Niners +2½, under 42

 

Prime Time Games

6-2 New England Patriots at 3-5 Denver Broncos
Patriot favored by 7½; over/under 44½ points; money line -320, +260

New England fans are rightfully going to temper their expectations based on the Patriots history in Denver. The Broncos have not looked good since their week five bye. Denver has lost four straight, turning the ball over 13 times in that span. To win they will need their defense to come through against a Patriot offense that is without WR Chris Hogan (shoulder). Danny Amendola has been playing through a knee injury, so the Pats could rely more on James White in the passing game. The Broncos can’t focus on stopping both Rob Gronkowski and the Patriot running backs at the same time. Brock Osweiler and the Denver offense will make a critical gaffe or two against Matt Patricia’s defense.

Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 17
New England -7½, over 44½

 

4-4 Miami Dolphins at 6-3 Carolina Panthers
Panthers favored by 9; over/under 38½ points; money line -450, +350

Continuity on offensive lines is a key to productivity. Miami will make two changes to their OL this week, adding LG Ted Larsen but losing RT Ja’Wuan James. That could be problematic against a Carolina defense that is allowing only 17.7 ppg.

Pick: Panthers 24, Dolphins 17
Miami +9, over 38½

 

Bye Week:
4-5 Baltimore Ravens
6-3 Kansas City Chiefs
4-5 Oakland Raiders
8-1 Philadelphia Eagles

 

For a sneak peak at next week’s games, check out NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead Lines: Patriots favored by 6 vs Raiders in Mexico City.

 

NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
November 13, 2016 at 6:00 am ET

Week 10 is highlighted by the return of the New England Patriots to NFL action. The 7-1 Pats host the 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl 49, arguably the best championship game in professional football history. The game kicks off at 8:30 pm eastern time at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough and will be televised on NBC.

 

★★ 5-3 Houston Texans at 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Jaguars -2½ . . . . over/under 42 . . . . HOU +120, JAC -140
Broadcast in northern Florida (Jacksonville, Gainesville), southern Georgia (Savannah) and Texas (except Dallas).

Jacksonville’s change at offensive coordinator to Nathaniel Hackett had mixed results. The Jaguars moved the ball very well against the Chiefs, with season highs in total yards (449) and rushing (205 yards). Those numbers are nice, but useless if you cannot finish off drives. The Jags moved the ball 66 yards on their first two drives but both ended in punts. Two drives (62 yards, 33 yards) ended on failed fourth down attempts. There was also a 74 yard drive that was done in by a fumble, and another ended with a missed field goal.

Most egregiously Jacksonville turned the ball over four times. If you want to know why Jacksonville has not lived up to the preseason hype, look no further than their 17 giveaways this season. The Jaguars own the NFL’s worst turnover differential (-12), which is a difficult task considering the Jets’ propensity to gift opponents with an interception.

Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 17
Texans +2½ (two units) . . . . over 42 . . . . . Houston +120

Final Score: Texans 24, Jaguars 21 ✓
Texans +2½ ✓✓ . . . . over 42 ✓ . . . . Texans +120 ✓

 

★★★ 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . CAR -170, KAN +150
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Virginia.

Kansas City’s defense has taken a step back this year. The Chiefs have had trouble stopping the run, allowing opponents to rush for 4.8 yards per carry (30th) and 125 yards per game (27th). That of course plays right into Carolina’s offensive game plan, to run the ball early and often. Since their week seven bye the Panther defense has played much better, averaging 15.0 points against. Thomas Davis has been particularly effective. Last week the 12th-year linebacker had 11 tackles (10 solo), an interception, pass defensed, strip sack and forced fumbled in the victory at Los Angeles.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Chiefs 20
Panthers -3 (one unit) . . . . over 44½ . . . . Carolina -170

Final Score: Chiefs 20, Panthers 17 x
Panthers -3 x . . . . over 44½ x . . . . Panthers -170 x

 

★★★★ 6-3 Denver Broncos at 4-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Saints -3 . . . . over/under 50 . . . . NOR -150, DEN +130
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of those televising one of the three other CBS games: Houston-Jacksonville, Kansas City-Carolina and Miami-San Diego.

The league’s top-ranked passing offense faces the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense in what should be the best of the eight early games. The New Orleans offense ranks first in total yards (435 per game), third down conversion (53%), passing yards (326 per game) and is second in scoring (30.2 ppg), red zone scoring (70.6%) and pass completions (69.7%).

While the Saint offense is a handful, their defense is another story. The Saints rank last in yards per pass attempt (8.1), yards per play (6.4), passing yards (300 per game) and 30th in both points allowed (29.8) and total yards (409). The good news for the Saints is that there defense has played better lately. After surrendering at 34 points in four of their first five games New Orleans has given up 23.3 points per game over the last three weeks. The Saints are also a much better team playing in the Big Easy. In their last two home games the Saints have defeated the Panthers and Seahawks. Overall New Orleans has won four of their last five to quietly close the gap in the NFC West; the Saints are now just one game behind Atlanta in the loss column.

The Denver pass defense ranks first in yards per game (183), yards per pass (5.2) and completion percentage (54.6%). The Broncos have been vulnerable on the ground however, and the Saints have rushed for 475 yards in their last three games. Denver is giving up 129 yards rushing per game (29th) and 4.4 yards per carry (22nd). Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian has completed just 52% of his passes over the last three weeks, and Denver has turned the ball over five times in their last two games. The Broncos appear to be heading in the opposite direction as the Saints, losing three of their last five games.

If New Orleans can continue to run the ball well then that will help neutralize Von Miller and the Denver pass rush. On the other hand should Denver be able to do the same then that takes pressure off Siemian – and also keeps Drew Brees and the Saint offense off the field.

Prediction: Saints 31, Broncos 27
Saints -3 . . . . over 50 . . . . New Orleans -150

Final Score: Broncos 25, Saints 23 x
Saints -3 x . . . . over 50 x . . . . Saints -150 x

 

★★ 3-5 Los Angeles Rams at 3-6 New York Jets
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Jets -1 . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . NYJ -115, LAR -105
Broadcast in southern California (except San Diego), Connecticut and New York (except Syracuse).

Both defenses should be able to pressure the opposing quarterback into making mistakes. And both offenses need to utilize their running backs more than they have been recently. Todd Gurley has run the ball just 14, 15 and 12 times over the last three games for the Rams, while Jeff Fisher has inexplicably had Case Keenum drop back to pass 106 times in the last two games. Similarly Matt Forte ran the ball just twelve times for the Jets last week even though he averaged 7.7 yards per carry – and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two more picks in the loss to Miami. The Jets now lead the league with 19 turnovers and have a minus-11 turnover differential.

Prediction: Rams 17, Jets 13
Rams +1 . . . . under 39½ . . . . Los Angeles -105

Final Score: Rams 9, Jets 6 ✓
Rams +1 ✓ . . . . under 39½ ✓ . . . . Rams -105 ✓

 

★★★ 6-3 Atlanta Falcons at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Falcons -1 . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . ATL -120, PHI +100
Broadcast in New England (except CT), Alabama, Arkansas, northern California, San Diego CA, south Florida (Miami, West Palm Beach), Florida panhandle (Panama City, Tallahassee), Georgia, Idaho, Topeka KS, Kentucky, Louisiana (except New Orleans), Mississippi, Missouri (except Springfield), Nevada, New Mexico, Syracuse NY, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas (except Houston) and Washington.

The Falcons face a tough challenge this week, attempting the rare feat of winning on the road in back-to-back weeks. Last week Atlanta’s unstoppable offense went over 40 points for the fourth time. After losses to Seattle and San Diego the Falcons bounced back with wins against Green Bay and Tampa Bay. Atlanta’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed, but it doesn’t matter; five times the Falcons have won games despite giving up 28 or more points.

Philadelphia began the season 3-0 but has lost four of their last five games. All of those four losses were by seven or fewer points, and all were on the road. Philly needs to get back to protecting the ball better. The Eagles did not turn the ball over until week five, but have coughed it up seven times in the last three games. Eagle RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai has struggled since being thrust into the starting lineup due to Lane Johnson’s suspension. Vaitai will have his hands full against Atlanta DE Vic Beasley, who has 7½ sacks.

Prediction: Falcons 35, Eagles 24
Falcons -1 (one unit) . . . . over 50½ (two units) . . . . Atlanta -120

Final Score: Eagles 24, Falcons 15 x
Falcons -1 x . . . . over 50½ xx . . . . Falcons -120 x

 

★★★ 5-3 Minnesota Vikings at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Redskins -2 . . . . over/under 42 . . . . WAS -130, MIN +110
Broadcast in DC, Iowa (except Cedar Rapids), Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina (except Charlotte), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.

The Vikings are in a free-fall, losing three straight after beginning the season 5-0. Minnesota is averaging just 12.0 points per game during that span, with their offensive line proving to be incapable of either pass protection or run blocking. Couple that with an unreliable kicker – Blair Walsh has missed four field goals and three PAT – and Minnesota just can’t be expected to score enough to win.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Vikings 17
Redskins -2 . . . . under 42 . . . . Washington -130

Final Score: Redskins 26, Vikings 20 ✓
Redskins -2 ✓ . . . . under 42 x . . . . Redskins -130 ✓

 

★★★ 4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-5 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Packers -2½ . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . GNB -145, TEN +125
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Chico CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Cedar Rapids IA, Wichita KS, Michigan, Nebraska, Cincinnati OH, Cleveland OH, Springfield MO, St. Louis MO, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

The Packers should have the NFC North virtually wrapped up by now, but after losing three of their last four games – including three straight at Lambeau – find themselves in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. This will be the first of three straight road games for the Pack, who looked sluggish in last week’s loss to a mediocre Indianapolis team. Tennessee’s offense is playing better than it did at the start of the season, but their defense has regressed. The Titans allowed 19.0 points per game in September but have given up 31.3 points per game over the last four weeks.

Prediction: Packers 31, Titans 28
Packers -2½ . . . . over 49½ (two units) . . . . Green Bay -145

Final Score: Titans 47, Packers 25 x
Packers -2½ x . . . . over 49½ ✓✓ . . . . Packers -145 x

 

2-6 Chicago Bears at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dan Hellie, David Diehl and Holly Sonders
Bears -2½ . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . CHI -130, TAM +110
Broadcast in central Florida (Fort Myers, Ocala, Orlando and Tampa), Illinois and Indiana.

Tampa Bay’s defense is not getting the job done. The Bucs are allowing 29.0 points per game (29th), 399 yards per game (28th), 6.0 yards per play (28th), 118 rushing yards per game (28th), 281 passing yards per game (28th), 7.9 yards per pass attempt (30th), and are giving up red zone touchdowns 65.5% of the time (28th). Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey should be in line for a big game. The Bucs have given up 37 pass plays of 20 or more yards, which is the second most in the NFL. There is no home field advantage here; the Bucs are 0-4 at RayJay and the heat and humidity are no longer factors for visiting teams this late in the year.

Prediction: Bears 34, Buccaneers 24
Bears -2½ . . . . over 45½ (two units) . . . . Chicago -130

Final Score: Buccaneers 36, Bears 10 x
Bears -2½ x . . . . over 45½ ✓✓ . . . . Bears -130 x

 

★★★ 4-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 San Diego Chargers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Chargers -4 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . SDG -210, MIA +175
Broadcast in Yuma AZ, southern California, DC, Florida (except Jacksonville), Georgia (except Savannah), Chicago IL, Minnesota, New York City, Philadelphia PA, Nashville TN and Wisconsin.

San Diego’s offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Chargers are averaging 29.8 points per game (3rd) and have scored 27 or more points six times this season. Melvin Gordon now has 1052 yards from scrimmage, second most in the NFL. Miami counters with their own star running back. Jay Ajayi is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and has rushed for 529 yards in the last three games. His productivity has taken pressure off quarterback Ryan Tannehill to carry the team, resulting in three straight wins for the Dolphins.

A referendum that would have raised hotel occupancy taxes to help pay for a new stadium for the Chargers in San Diego failed to pass in last week’s election. I will be curious to see if Mike McCoy will be able to convince his players to ignore the noise and focus on the game.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Dolphins 24
Chargers -4 (one unit) . . . . over 48½ . . . . San Diego -210

Final Score: Dolphins 31, Chargers 24 x
Chargers -4 x . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . Chargers -210 x

 

1-7 San Francisco 49ers at 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Cardinals -14 . . . . over/under 48 . . . . ARI -1100, SFO +700
Broadcast in Arizona, northern California and Reno NV.

Normally I would back any NFL team getting 14 points against a sub-.500 team, but these Niners are awful. San Francisco ranks last by a wide margin in virtually every run defense metric, including an unfathomable 193 yards per game. Now the Niners have to go on the road and face one of the best running backs in the league. David Johnson leads the NFL with 139 yards from scrimmage per game and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

Prediction: Cardinals 38, Forty Niners 17
Cardinals -14 (one unit) . . . . over 48 (one unit) . . . . Arizona -1100

Final Score: Cardinals 23, Forty Niners 20 ✓
Cardinals -14 x . . . . over 48 x . . . . Cardinals -1100 ✓

 

★★★★★ 7-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Steelers -2½ . . . . over/under 50 . . . . PIT -150, DAL +130
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA and Reno NV.

The Cowboys have been televised in either prime time or as the primary afternoon game every week this season, but nobody should complain about that this week. With linebacker Ryan Shazier back in the lineup Pittsburgh’s defense, especially against the run, is vastly improved. The Steelers need to limit Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott from gaining large chunks of yardage. The problem is that is more easily said than done when going up against one of the two best offensive lines in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger had his traditional poor performance in his first game back from an injury, but should have a better day versus a Dallas defense that is allowing opponents to complete 68% of their passes (third worst in the NFL).

Prediction: Steelers 27, Cowboys 24
Steelers -2½ . . . . over 50 . . . . Pittsburgh -150

Final Score: Cowboys 35, Steelers 30 x
Steelers -2½ x . . . . over 50 ✓ . . . . Steelers -150 x

 

★★★★★ 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 7-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 49 . . . . NWE -360, SEA +300
Broadcast in all markets.

Multiple changes in personnel and injuries have made the Seattle offensive line a liability. The result is a change in personality for the Seattle offense, with a running game that is one of the least effective in the league. That won’t help keep the Patriot offense off the field. The return of Tom Brady from a witch hunt suspension and Rob Gronkowski from a preseason hamstring injury have propelled New England’s into an unstoppable juggernaut. The Patriots are averaging 34 points per game over the last four weeks, winning by an average margin of more than 16 points per game.

Seattle has benefited from officiating decisions in three of their five wins, including an outrageous non-call against Richard Sherman for roughing the kicker against Buffalo last week. You know the officiating is bad when there was no flag, yet a player is fined for the hit. This game won’t be close enough to come down to a referee’s arbitrary decision though. For more on this game check out Seahawks at Patriots: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds and More.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Seahawks 24
Patriots -7½ (one unit) . . . . over 49 . . . . New England -360

Final Score: Seahawks 31, Patriots 24 x
Patriots -7½ x . . . . over 49 ✓ . . . . Patriots -360 x

 

★★★ 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 New York Giants
Monday, November 14 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Bengals -1 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CIN -120, NYG +100
Broadcast in all markets.

Cincinnati was saddled with a tough schedule to start the season, with games at Pittsburgh, Dallas and New England. If they are going to make it to the post-season then they need to find a way to win games like this one. The Bengal offense moves the ball well (395 yards per game, 6th) but doesn’t finish drives off well. Cincy ranks 21st on third down (36.9%) and scores touchdowns in the red zone just 52% of the time (19th). To make matters worse the Bengals not only settle for too many field goals, they are converting only 77% of their attempts (25th).

New York’s offensive line has not played well. The running game is so ineffective (3.2 yards per rush, 68 yards per game) it has virtually been abandoned. The Giants pass the ball on 65% of their plays, second most in the league, making them very predictable to defend.

Prediction: Giants 24, Bengals 21
Giants +1 . . . . under 47½ . . . . New York +100

Final Score: Giants 21, Bengals 20 ✓
Giants +1 ✓ . . . . under 47½ ✓ . . . . Giants +100 ✓

 

Thursday Night Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 16
Browns +7½ . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . Baltimore -350

Final Score: Ravens 28, Browns 7 ✓
Browns +7½ x . . . . under 44½ . . . . Ravens -350 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (one unit): x
Falcons at Eagles over 50½ x
Packers at Titans over 49½ ✓
Falcons -1 at Philadelphia x

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Texans +8½ at Jacksonville ✓
Cardinals -8 vs Forty Niners x
Falcons at Eagles over 42½ x
Packers at Titans over 43½ ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week began well, picking Atlanta to win and cover (one unit) and the total at Tampa to go over (three units). The Saints over San Francisco was another road win, good for three units. However Green Bay losing at home to the Colts was a disappointment, costing me two units ATS and also prevented me from winning what would have been 600 on a parlay.

Week 9 Results:
9-4 Straight Up
7-5-1 Against the Spread
7-6 Over/Under
3-unit plays: 2-0, +600
2-unit plays: 1-1, -20
1-unit plays: 3-2, +80
3-Game Parlay: 1u, 0-1, -110
4-Game Teaser: 1u, 1-0, +300
17 units invested
7-4, +850 on $1870 risk
45.5% ROI

Year to Date Results:
76-55-2 Straight Up
74-55-4 Against the Spread
73-60 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 21-12, +1610
1-unit plays: 32-14-1, +1650
Parlays: 2-5, +1250
Teasers: 5-2, +2370
67-38-2, +7610 on original $2310 risk.
329.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
39.3% ROI on $19,360 (176 units) of total weekly investments.

7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

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Seahawks at Patriots: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds and More

John Morgan
November 10, 2016 at 12:00 am ET

Super Bowl 49 was arguably the most exciting and memorable championship game in the history of the National Football League. On Sunday NFL fans will be treated to a rematch of that epic event as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Currently these two clubs are favorites to represent their respective conferences at NRG Stadium in Houston on February 5 for Super Bowl 51.

 

 

Who: 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (1st in NFC West, 2nd in NFC) at 7-1 New England Patriots (1st in AFC East, 1st in AFC).

What: 2016 NFL Week Ten Game of the Week.

When: Sunday November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA; FieldTurf surface.

Weather: 10% chance of precipitation. Clear skies with a daytime high of 48° and overnight low of 30°. Winds at 5-10 mph; game time temperature in the mid to high thirties. Keep in mind that this is New England, so the forecast could very well change between now and kickoff.

Coaches: Pete Carroll is in his 11th year as an NFL head coach. Carroll is 98-69-1 in the regular season, and 9-6 in 15 playoff games. Now in his seventh year with Seattle, Petey is 65-38-1 (.630) with the Seahawks, plus 8-4 in the playoffs. Carroll’s teams have won two conference championships and one Super Bowl; his clubs have made it to the playoffs in seven of his ten years as head coach.

Bill Belichick is now in his 22nd year as an NFL head coach, with a 230-114 (.669) regular season record. BB also has 14 playoff appearances, including the last seven in a row. Belichick is 23-10 in the playoffs (22-9, .710 with the Patriots) with four Lombardi trophies and six conference championships. The Hoodie also has two Super Bowl rings as defensive coordinator for the Giants.

Odds: In the early advanced look-ahead lines published on Tuesday November 1 the Patriots were listed as 7½ point favorites. Those odds remained the same after Seattle’s victory over Buffalo on Monday night. As of Tuesday the over/under is 49. Heading into Week Ten the Patriots were listed as favorites at +200 (2:1) to win the Super Bowl. Next up are two NFC teams. The Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are both dropped from +1000 (10:1) to +800 (8:1) to win it all after their week nine victories.

Head-to-Head Series Record: Including the Super Bowl victory, the Patriots lead the all-time series 9-8. The two teams have met three times in the regular season since Bill Belichick became head coach of the Patriots. The Pats won 30-20 in the last game at Foxboro in 2004. In December of 2008 the Patriots won 24-21 when Sammy Morris vaulted in to the end zone on 4th and one with 2:44 left to play. In the U mad bro game of 2012 the Seahawks came from behind for a 24-23 home victory. Carroll has a 2-2 career record versus the Patriots, splitting two games in 1994 when he was with the Jets. Belichick is 4-2 against Seattle, including two games when he was with the Browns.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.

As you can see below this is a classic NFL great offense versus great defense matchup.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus Seattle Seahawks Defense

Scoring per Game: Patriots 27.1 (6th); Seahawks 16.8 (3rd)

Yardage per Game: Patriots 380 (7th); Seahawks 333 (9th)

First Downs per Game: Patriots 21.1 (14th); Seahawks 20.4 (15th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.0 (5th); Seahawks 4.9 (4th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 35.1 (8th); Seahawks 29.0 (7th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.56 (4th); Seahawks 1.36 (3rd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .744 (6th); Seahawks .655 (5th)

Points per Play: Patriots .429 (3rd); Seahawks .248 (1st)

Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.2 (1st); Seahawks 1.6 (1st)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.2 (8th); Seahawks 1.2 (2nd)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (6th); Seahawks 43.5% (2nd)

Plays per Game: Patriots 63.2 (21st); Seahawks 67.6 (29th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 6.38 (3rd); Seahawks 6.38 (29th)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Patriots 47.2% (4th); Seahawks 42.9% (26th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.9 (11th); Seahawks 1.5 (4th)

Punts per Game: Patriots 4.38 (8th); Seahawks 5.00 (9th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 116.4 (8th); Seahawks 98.8 (12th)

Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.88 (26th); Seahawks 3.53 (5th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 264 (9th); Seahawks 234 (10th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.90 (2nd); Seahawks 7.02 (14th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.48 (2nd); Seahawks 6.45 (11th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 69.9% (1st); Seahawks 62.4% (11th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 118.8 (2nd); Seahawks 81.6 (6th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots  Patriots +16 (2nd), 16/0; Seahawks  Patriots +0 (5th), 6/6

Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 21.8 (23rd); Seahawks 22.6 (14th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 9.4 (1st); Seahawks 13.6 (11th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.13 (11th); Seahawks 3.38 (1st)

Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 13.0 (12th); Seahawks 20.6 (2nd)

 

Seattle Seahawks Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Seahawks 20.3 (23rd); Patriots 16.5 (2nd)

Yardage: Seahawks 332 (26th); Patriots 354 (15th)

First Downs: Seahawks 18.0 (29th); Patriots 20.8 (20th)

Yards per Play: Seahawks 5.5 (16th); Patriots 5.4 (12th)

Yards per Drive: Seahawks 29.0 (26th); Patriots 32.5 (16th)

Points per Drive: Seahawks 1.62 (26th); Patriots 1.53 (6th)

Drive Success Rate: Seahawks .654 (27th); Patriots .700 (14th)

Points per Play: Seahawks .336 (19th); Patriots .252 (3rd)

Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 2.1 (24th); Patriots 1.9 (5th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 1.8 (15th); Patriots 1.6 (12th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Seahawks 56.0% (16th); Patriots 59.1% (22nd)

Plays per Game: Seahawks 60.2 (29th); Patriots 65.5 (21st)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Seahawks 4.50 (26th); Patriots 5.38 (21st)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Seahawks 36.4% (24th); Patriots 40.6% (20th)

Punts per Offensive Score: Seahawks 1.3 (20th); Patriots 1.5 (6th)

Punts per Game: Seahawks 5.00 (17th); Patriots 4.50 (19th)

Rushing Yards: Seahawks 75.4 (30th); Patriots 101.6 (15th)

Yards per Carry: Seahawks 3.21 (30th); Patriots 4.15 (16th)

Passing Yards: Seahawks 257 (13th); Patriots 253 (18th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.92 (5th); Patriots 6.67 (7th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.39; Patriots 6.15

Completion Percentage: Seahawks 66.9% (7th); Patriots 62.5% (14th)

Passer Rating: Seahawks 95.9 (11th); Patriots 84.9 (10th)

TD Passes/Picks: Seahawks +5 (20th), 8/3; Patriots -4 (12th), 9/5

Complete Passes per Game: Seahawks 23.2 (17th); Patriots 24.6 (25th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Seahawks 11.5 (5th); Patriots 14.8 (5th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Seahawks 2.00 (9th); Patriots 1.63 (28th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Seahawks 18.5 (27th); Patriots 10.3 (27th)

 

Turnovers

Turnover Differential: Patriots +0.38 per game, 8th (+3 total); Seahawks +0.25 per game, 12th (+2 total)

Patriot Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Seahawk Takeaways: 1.00 per game, 23rd (8 total)

Seahawk Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Patriot Takeaways: 1.13 per game, 20th (9 total)

 

Penalties

Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.5 (11th); Seahawks 8.1 (26th)

Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 61.9 (17th); Seahawks 71.9 (27th)

Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Seahawks 6.4 (24th)

Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 57.5 (22nd); Seahawks 56.1 (23rd)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Total Weighted DVOA: Patriots 20.2% (4th); Seahawks 18.8% (6th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 19.2% (3rd); Seahawks -3.3% (18th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots 2.1% (19th); Seahawks -21.7% (3rd)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 2.4% (7th); Seahawks 0.7% (12th)

 

This game will be a very difficult task for the Patriots. The Seattle Seahawks still possess a formidable defense on all three levels. Coming off a bye the Pats do have the advantage of being both healthy and well rested, as well as having extra time to prepare for their opponent. Conversely Seattle not only has to overcome the challenge of traveling across three time zones, they also have to do so on a short week after playing Monday night. The Seahawks will have extra motivation of looking for revenge for their Super Bowl loss, but that extra adrenaline won’t be enough. I’ll take Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home with extra preparation time over the Legion of Doom defense.

Early Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 17

 

NFL Week 10 Odds, Television Coverage and Distribution

John Morgan
November 7, 2016 at 10:00 pm ET

NFL Week Ten is highlighted by a rematch of Super Bowl 49. On Sunday night the 7-1 New England Patriots host the 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks on NBC. Al Michaels (play by play), Cris Collinsworth (commentary) and Michele Tafoya (sideline reports) will serve as the broadcasting crew.

On the Sunday afternoon undercard there are several interesting games worth tuning in to view. CBS has the single game and most of their affiliates will be broadcasting Denver at New Orleans in the early time slot. Oakland was able to neutralize Von Miller and the vaunted Denver pass rush last night en route to a 30-20 victory. The defending Super Bowl champs have now lost three of their last five games. The Broncos have lost their last two road games and suddenly find themselves in third place in the AFC West.

Fox has the doubleheader this week and their early time slot is primarily split between two games. Most of the northeast and southeast will receive Atlanta at Philadelphia. The Falcons own the second best record in the NFC but face the challenge of going out and winning on the road for the second time in two weeks. Philadelphia has stumbled recently with four losses in their last five games, but the Eagles are 3-0 at home this year.

The other early game on Fox receiving wide distribution is Green Bay at Tennessee. The Packers look to rebound after a lackluster performance in their Sunday night loss to the Colts. This game will air through much of the north central United States as well as almost all of the Rocky Mountain and Pacific time zones.

In the late time slot Fox is once again showcasing the Dallas Cowboys. This week Dallas is at Pittsburgh, which makes for a compelling matchup. The Steelers have lost three in a row but perform much better at home with the backing of Steeler Nation and their Terrible Towels. Pittsburgh’s sole home loss this year was without Ben Roethlisberger as well as a depleted wide receiving corps against the New England Patriots.

Thursday night brings us yet another stinkfest, with the Browns traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens. The final prime time game on Monday is between the Bengals and Giants. Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland are all off with byes in Week 10. Please keep in mind that the listings below are preliminary. Some stations will switch to another game between now and Sunday.

 

NFL Week 10 Television Coverage and Odds

0-9 Cleveland Browns at 4-4 Baltimore Ravens
Thursday, November 10 at 8:30 pm ET on NFLN; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Ravens -10 . . . . over/under 45½
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★ 5-3 Houston Texans at 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Announcers TBD (Harlan/Gannon?)
Texans -1½ . . . . over/under 42½
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia and Texas.

 

★★★ 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Announcers TBD (Gumbel/Green?)
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 44
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

 

★★★★ 6-3 Denver Broncos at 4-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Saints -1½ . . . . over/under 49
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of those broadcasting one of the three other CBS games: Houston-Jacksonville, Kansas City-Carolina and Miami-San Diego.

 

★★ 3-5 Los Angeles Rams at 3-6 New York Jets
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Jets -2½ . . . . over/under 42
Broadcast in southern California (except San Diego), Hartford CT and New York (except Buffalo).

 

★★★ 6-3 Atlanta Falcons at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Pick’em . . . . over/under 50½
Broadcast in New England (except CT), Alabama, Arkansas, south Florida (Miami, West Palm Beach), Florida panhandle (Panama City, Tallahassee), Georgia, Kansas (except Topeka), Louisiana (except New Orleans), Mississippi, New Mexico, Buffalo NY, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.

 

★★★ 5-3 Minnesota Vikings at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Skins -2½ . . . . over/under 41½
Broadcast in DC, Maryland, Minnesota, North Carolina (except Charlotte), Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and West Virginia.

 

★★★ 4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-5 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Packers -2½ . . . . over/under 49½
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

 

2-6 Chicago Bears at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dan Hellie, David Diehl and Holly Sonders
Pick’em . . . . over/under 45
Broadcast in central Florida (Fort Myers, Ocala, Orlando and Tampa), Illinois and Indiana.

 

★★★ 4-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 San Diego Chargers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; announcers TBD (Eagle/Fouts?)
Chargers -3½ . . . . over/under 49
Broadcast in Yuma AZ, southern California, central and southern Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach), Atlanta GA, Minnesota, New York City, Philadelphia PA, Nashville TN and Wisconsin.

 

1-7 San Francisco 49ers at 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Cardinals -13½ . . . . over/under 48½
Broadcast in Arizona, northern California and Reno NV.

 

★★★★★ 7-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Steelers -2½ . . . . over/under 50
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA and Reno NV.

 

★★★★★ 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 7-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 48½
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★★ 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 New York Giants
Monday, November 14 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Giants -2½ . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in all markets.

 

NFL Week 10 Previews, TV Info, Predictions and Picks ATS

John Morgan
November 15, 2015 at 6:00 am ET

As a by-product of the league’s quest for parity, NFL week ten sadly has just one game between two teams with winning records: the New England Patriots at New York Giants in a late afternoon tilt on Sunday. Here is a look at all of the week ten games….

 

4-4 5-4 Buffalo Bills at 5-3 5-4 New York Jets,Thursday November 12
Jets -2½ . . . . over/under 42 . . . . Bills +114, Jets -126
Final Score: Bills 22, Jets 17

With the win the Bills jump from a #7 seed in the AFC playoff picture to #5, and the Jets drop one place to #6 – and as a result Pittsburgh falls to the wrong side of the bubble in the number seven slot.

 

1-7 Detroit Lions at 6-2 Green Bay Packers, early game on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Chico CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky (except Bowling Green), Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio (except Cleveland), Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Packers -10½ (opened at -10½) . . . . over/under 49 . . . . Det +450, GB -600

Detroit ranks last in points allowed (30.6); not good when facing a Packer team coming home looking to get back on track after two losses.

Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 20

Pick: Packers -10½ . . . . over 49 . . . . Packers -600

 

2-6 Dallas Cowboys at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, early game on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch

Broadcast in Arkansas, Florida (except Jacksonville and Miami), Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

Bucs -1 (opened w/Dal -1) . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . Dal -105, TB -115

The Cowboys finally get a win with a backup quarterback, one week before the return of Tony Romo.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Bucs 23

Pick: Cowboys +1 . . . . over 43½ . . . . Cowboys -105

 

8-0 Carolina Panthers at 2-6 Tennessee Titans, early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis

Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Bowling Green KY, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Beckley WV.

Panthers -4 (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 44 . . . . Car -210, Tenn +175

This would be a letdown trap game for Carolina, if not for the fact that Tennessee is not seasoned enough to handle success and win two games in a row.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Titans 13

Pick: Panthers -4 (three units) . . . . under 48 (two units) . . . . Panthers -210

 

3-5 Chicago Bears at 4-4 St. Louis Rams, early game on CBS; TBA

Broadcast in Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Reno NV, North Dakota, South Dakota, Spokane WA and Wisconsin (except Green Bay).

Rams -6½ (opened at -9) . . . . over/under 42½ . . . . Chi +250, StL -300

The Bears are a whole lot better with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffrey in the lineup, but the St. Louis defense is one of only two to have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed; I would not doubt a critical late Cutler pick six decides this game.

Prediction: Rams 20, Bears 17

Pick: Bears +6½ (one unit) . . . . under 42½ (one unit) . . . . Bears +250

 

4-5 New Orleans Saints at 3-5 Washington Redskins, early game on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston

Broadcast in Alabama (except Huntsville), Connecticut, DC, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia and Pittsburgh), Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia.

Pick’em (opened w/Saints -2½) . . . . over/under 50 . . . . NO -110, Wash -110

While the Skins defense is much better than New Orleans’, I’ll side with Drew Brees over Kirk Cousins in a game that could come down to a shootout.

Prediction: Saints 28, Skins 27

Pick: Saints +0 . . . . over 50 . . . . Saints -110

 

3-5 Miami Dolphins at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles, early game on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon

Broadcast in Connecticut, parts of Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, Panama City, West Palm Beach), Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York (except Buffalo), Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont and Richmond VA.

Eagles -6 (opened at -5½) . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . Mia +220, Phil -260

Miami’s resurgence with a change of head coaches has come to a sobering and abrupt halt with their third straight loss.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Dolphins 23

Pick: Dolphins +6 . . . . over 50 . . . . Eagles -260

 

2-7 Cleveland Browns at 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, early game on FOX; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Broadcast in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia (except Savannah), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, Buffalo NY, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), South Carolina, Tennessee (except Nashville), Utah, Virginia (except Charlottesville, Harrisonburg and Richmond), Washington (except Spokane), West Virginia and Wyoming.

Steelers -6½ (opened at -7) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . Cle +220, Pit -260

The brain trust in Cleveland now decides that they should see how Johnny Manziel can fare at quarterback. What, they thought they were winning the Super Bowl with Josh McCown? The Browns have not won in Pittsburgh since 2003; maybe next year.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 17

Pick: Browns +6½ . . . . under 41½ . . . . Steelers -260

 

2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars at 2-6 Baltimore Ravens, early game on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots

Broadcast in DC, northern Florida (Jacksonville, Gainesville, Orlando, Tallahassee), southern Georgia (Albany, Savannah), Maryland and northern Virginia (Charlottesville, Harrisonburg).

Ravens -4½ (opened at -6½) . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . Jax +180, Bal -220

Baltimore is down to Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown as their starting wide receivers; Jacksonville actually has a very good chance of pulling an upset on the road here.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 24

Pick: Jaguars +4½ . . . . over 47½ . . . . Jaguars +180

 

6-2 Minnesota Vikings at 4-4 Oakland Raiders, late game on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber

Broadcast in California (except Chico), Jacksonville FL, Miami FL, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Cleveland OH, Philadelphia PA, Pittsburgh PA and South Dakota.

Raiders -3 (opened as Pick’em) . . . . over/under 44 . . . . Min +130, Oak -150

Look past the 6-2 record and you will see that the cumulative record of the teams Minnesota has defeated this year is 13-28. Derek Carr is playing very well and the deviants in the black hole will make it difficult for concussed Teddy Bridgewater.

Prediction: Raiders 24, Vikings 23

Pick: Vikings +3 . . . . over 44 . . . . Vikings +130

 

3-5 Kansas City Chiefs at 7-1 Denver Broncos, late game on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green

Arizona, Arkansas, California (except SF/Oakland), Colorado, Idaho, Indianapolis IN, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Tennessee (except Memphis), Amarillo TX, Houston TX, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Broncos -4½ (opened at -7) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . KC +180, Den -220

I would like the Chiefs a whole lot more in this situation if the Broncos were not looking to avenge a loss from the previous week. Once Denver bottles up KC’s running game, can Alex Smith carry the Chiefs to a win on the road in a loud stadium? Doubtful.

Prediction: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17

Pick: Chiefs +4½ . . . . under 41½ . . . . Chiefs +180

 

8-0 New England Patriots at 5-4 New York Giants, late game on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, DC, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana (except Indianapolis), Kentucky (except Bowling Green), Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Memphis TN, Texas (except Amarillo and Houston), Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Patriots -7½ (opened at -6½) . . . . over/under 54½ . . . . NE -350, NYG +290

The Giants are adept at forcing turnovers (an NFL-high 13 interceptions), but beyond those handful of plays their defense is just plain bad. New England’s receivers should have a field day against this pass coverage.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Giants 27

Pick: Giants +7½ . . . . over 54½ (two units) . . . . Patriots -350

 

6-2 Arizona Cardinals at 4-4 Seattle Seahawks, Sunday night on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Broadcast in all markets.

Seahawks -3 (opened at -2½) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . Ariz +130, Sea -150

I was a big believer in Arizona early on, but watching them lately their wins speak more about the level of their opponents than their own prowess. On the other hand, Seattle’s offense is just plain bad.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17

Pick: Cardinals +3 . . . . under 44½ . . . . Cardinals +130

 

3-5 Houston Texans at 8-0 Cincinnati Bengals, Monday night on ESPN; Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden

Broadcast in all markets.

Bengals -11 (opened at -13) . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . Hou +475, Cin -650

The Bengals can be run on (NFL worst 4.9 yards per carry), but it is tough to stick to that game plan once you fall behind.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Texans 20

Pick: Texans +11 . . . . under 47½ . . . . Bengals -650

 

For a bit of nostalgia, here are the future prop bets for this week’s games that were posted back when the NFL schedule came out last April; note the point swings in one direction for the Patriots, Panthers and Bengals, and in the other direction for the Ravens and Cowboys. On the other hand it is uncanny how the line in so many other games has barely budged at all.

Bills (-1) at Jets
Cowboys (-4½) at Buccaneers
Cardinals at Seahawks (-5½)
Bears at Rams (-4½)
Panthers (-2½) at Titans
Chiefs at Broncos (-5)
Vikings (-1½) at Raiders
Jaguars at Ravens (-10½)
Browns at Steelers (-7½)
Patriots (-1½) at Giants
Dolphins at Eagles (-3½)
Saints at Redskins (Pick’em)
Lions at Packers (-5)
Texans at Bengals (-4)

 

Bye Week:

6-3 Atlanta Falcons

4-5 Indianapolis Colts

2-7 San Diego Chargers

3-6 San Francisco 49ers

 

 

Patriots at Giants: Stats, Odds, TV Info, Preview and Prediction ATS

John Morgan
November 14, 2015 at 12:00 pm ET

The 8-0 New England Patriots visit the 5-4 New York Giants in a battle between the division leaders of the AFC East and NFC East on Sunday. The Giants lead the all-time series 6-5, including wins in the last three meetings – which, as every football fan has already been reminded of this last week, includes victories in the 2007 and 2011 super bowls. Prior to that the Patriots had won four straight; all but two games (in 1970 and 2003) have been one possession affairs, decided by eight points or less.

 

When: Sunday, November 15 at 4:25 pm ET

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ

Television: CBS; announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Weather: Forecast is for a sunny day with clear skies and temperature at kickoff of 56°; zero percent chance of precipitation and a slight breeze with winds of 8-9 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened as point favorites a week ago Thursday, prior to last weekend’s games. By Sunday night following the Giants 32-18 win at Tampa Bay and New England’s 27-10 victory over Washington the line inched up to 7 points in most venues, with several at 7½. The 7/7½ point spread has remained , with two exceptions: 5Dimes and SportBet.com both list the Patriots as 9 point favorites as of Saturday morning.

The over/under is 54½, with quite a few places a half point lower. Typical money lines have the Patriots at -350 and the Giants at +290.

Head-to-Head Series Record: New England leads the regular season 5-4, but New York leads overall 6-5. In five games during the Bill Belichick era the Patriots have outscored the Giants by three, but New York has won the last three of those games.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering other NFL teams have played a different number of games thus far due to bye weeks, and because they provide a better context in what to expect in a game.

New England Patriots Offense versus New York Giants Defense

Scoring: Patriots 34.5 (1st); Giants 25.1 (19th)

Yardage: Patriots 420 (2nd); Giants 423 (32nd)

First Downs: Patriots 25.2 (1st); Giants 23.9 (32nd)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.3 (2nd); Giants 6.1 (30th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 39.6 (3rd); Giants 38.8 (32nd)

Points per Drive: Patriots 3.22 (1st); Giants 2.16 (23rd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .788 (1st); Giants .741 (30th)

Points per Play: Patriots .514 (2nd); Giants .365 (16th)

Touchdowns: Patriots 3.9 (1st); Giants 2.6 (19th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Patriots 3.2 (1st); Giants 1.7 (15th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 68.4% (3rd); Giants 53.6% (12th)

Plays per Game: Patriots 67.1 (8th); Giants 68.9 (29th)

Third Down Conversions: Patriots 6.1 (8th); Giants 6.6 (31st)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 48.5% (1st); Giants 47.6% (31st)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.5 (1st); Giants 0.7 (30th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 94.8 (26th); Giants 114.8 (22nd)

Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.97 (20th); Giants 4.25 (21st)

Passing Yards: Patriots 326 (3rd); Giants 308 (31st)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.3 (3rd); Giants 7.7 (23rd)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 68.6% (5th); Giants 66.8% (27th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 113.5 (1st); Giants 90.5 (17th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +20 (1st), 22/2; Giants -4 (10th), 17/13

Complete Passes: Patriots 28.1 (3rd); Giants 27.3 (31st)

Incomplete Passes: Patriots 12.9 (14th); Giants 13.6 (11th)

Quarterback Sacks: Patriots 2.2 (18th); Giants 1.0 (32nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Patriots 13.1 (15th); Giants 7.5 (31st)

 

New York Giants Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Giants 27.4 (5th); Patriots 17.9 (5th)

Yardage: Giants 350 (20th); Patriots 334 (8th)

First Downs: Giants 20.9 (13th); Patriots 20.2 (12th)

Yards per Play: Giants 5.4 (19th); Patriots 5.2 (7th)

Yards per Drive: Giants 34.6 (8th); Patriots 29.3 (9th)

Points per Drive: Giants 2.22 (7th); Patriots 1.58 (6th)

Drive Success Rate: Giants .720 (8th); Patriots .692 (12th)

Points per Play: Giants .425 (5th); Patriots .278 (2nd)

Touchdowns: Giants 2.4 (12th); Patriots 2.0 (7th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Giants 1.7 (18th); Patriots 1.6 (8th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Giants 48.4% (24th); Patriots 61.9% (22nd)

Plays per Game: Giants 64.6 (14th); Patriots 64.4 (14th)

Third Down Conversions: Giants 5.4 (13th); Patriots 5.6 (22nd)

Third Down Percentage: Giants 40.8% (13th); Patriots 41.3% (24th)

Punts per Score: Giants 0.9 (5th); Patriots 1.5 (3rd)

Rushing Yards: Giants 96.7 (24th); Patriots 89.3 (3rd)

Yards per Rush: Giants 3.80 (25th); Patriots 4.08 (17th)

Passing Yards: Giants 253 (14th); Patriots 245 (16th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Giants 6.9 (23rd); Patriots 6.9 (10th)

Completion Percentage: Giants 65.9% (10th); Patriots 62.0% (10th)

Passer Rating: Giants 96.9 (9th); Patriots 83.1 (8th)

TD Passes/Picks: Giants +13 (6th), 19/6; Patriots -3 (9th), 12/9

Complete Passes: Giants 24.9 (9th); Patriots 24.2 (24th)

Incomplete Passes: Giants 12.9 (16th); Patriots 14.9 (7th)

Quarterback Sacks: Giants 1.3 (4th); Patriots 3.4 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Giants 7.8 (5th); Patriots 23.5 (2nd)

 

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.6 (1st);  Giants Takeaways: 2.3 (2nd)

Giants Giveaways: 1.0 (3rd); Patriot Takeaways: 1.5 (13th)

 

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 7.1 (15th); Giants 7.0 (12th)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 62.5 (22nd); Giants 55.9 (10th)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 7.8 (8th); Giants 8.2 (4th)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 72.5 (7th); Giants 67.9 (8th)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 39.7% (1st); Giants 0.6% (15th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 25.2% (1st); Giants -1.9% (17th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -7.3% (8th); Giants 4.6% (20th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 7.5% (1st); Giants 7.0% (2nd)

 

Defensively the Patriots game plan to take away an opponent’s strength, and dare that opponent to beat the Pats elsewhere. It would not surprise me if New England did something similar to week one when they provided extra coverage against the Pittsburgh receivers, and made DeAngelo Williams a low priority running the ball. The Giants do not run the ball effectively (25th in yards per carry, 24th in rushing yards per game); other than Shane Vereen (34 receptions, 483 yards from scrimmage, 3 TD) catching passes out of the backfield, the Giants’ running backs are not an area of concern for the Patriots. Rashad Jennings leads the Giants in rushing but is averaging just 40.4 yards per game; collectively the team has run for just three touchdowns this year.

 

So how will the Patriots plan to limit WR Odell Beckham (59 receptions, 759 yards, 7 TD)? Presumably Malcolm Butler will cover the elite second year pro out of LSU, but he will need help. If the Pats shade Devin McCourty to his side in double coverage, that leaves Reuben Randle (36 receptions, 424 yards, 3 TD) alone on Logan Ryan, perhaps with help from Duron Harmon. Getting pressure on Eli Manning (66% completions; 19 TD, 6 INT) prior to the routes being completed would help, but the Giants have been very good in pass protection. Football Outsiders ranks the New York offensive line 11th in pass protection, and the Giants have given up the fifth fewest yards due to sacks in the NFL this year – even though they have dropped back to pass the sixth most times. TE Larry Donnell (29 receptions, 223 yards, 2 TD) is out with a neck injury, so Manning will rely heavily on Beckham, Randle, and return specialist Dwayne Harris (19/222/3), who has taken over in the slot with Victor Cruz (calf) still out.

 

As you can see from the statistics above, the New England offense has a very decided advantage over the New York defense. Although that is tempered a bit by the loss of RB Dion Lewis and the return of Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, the Patriots should be able to move the ball effectively. Although the Giants give up lots of yards (and points), their defense has been productive in forcing turnovers; the G-Men lead the league with thirteen interceptions. As long as the Pats can limit their turnovers then they should be fine. The Giants have no answer for Rob Gronkowski, and with CB Prince Amukamara out for the fifth straight game with a partially torn pectoral muscle, Jayron Hosley will once again get the start at corner. Opponents have had plenty of success this season against Hosley, so one or all of Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola should be in position for a very big game Sunday.

 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 20

New York’s defense – as we saw against New Orleans – is nowhere near the same one it was in their Super Bowl years. For the sake of comparison the Giants’ defense is inferior to that of last week’s opponent, Washington; the Pats should win this game. Despite that I just can’t fully back a team – even one as good as the Patriots – when they are on the road, with all their injuries, against a winning team while giving up a full touchdown. If I absolutely had to lay some money down I would use one of those two outlets that has the Pats minus-9 and take the Giants plus the points, thinking that this will be at the most a 7 or 8 point ball game.

 

 

 

Bills at Jets – TNF Preview, Prediction and Pick ATS

John Morgan
November 11, 2015 at 11:00 pm ET

Week Ten NFL Thursday Night Football has an interesting AFC East matchup, as Rex Ryan returns to Exit 16W for the first time since he was canned late last December, after losing eight straight games en route to a 4-12 record. The 4-4 Buffalo Bills travel to New Jersey to face the 5-3 New York Jets in a game with implications that go far beyond ego and bragging rights: the Jets currently hold the top wild card seed, fifth overall in the AFC, while Buffalo is just on the wrong side of the bubble, seventh overall in the conference. The game kicks off at 8:25 pm eastern time and is broadcast nationwide on NFLN. Jim Nantz will call the play-by-play along with commentary by Phil Simms, while Tracy Wolfson reports from the sidelines.

 

Odds: Early in the week the Jets were listed as three-point favorites, but as of Wednesday night most venues had brought the line down to NYJ -2½. The point total has inched down a bit, from 44½ to 42½; the typical money line has the Bills at +115 and the Jets -135.

 

The Jets have been playing better than the Bills this season, but Buffalo is a lot healthier. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not on the injury report, but rumors are being floated that on Friday he will undergo minor surgery, with the hope that in ten days he would be ready to start against Houston. Safeties Calvin Pryor and Dion Bailey are both out with ankle injuries, leaving Rontez Miles to get his first NFL start opposite Marcus Gilchrist. Corner Antonio Cromartie (quad) has not practiced and is doubtful to play, and slot corner Buster Skrine (shoulder, hand) is questionable, but will have to move to the outside to take Cro’s spot. CB Dee Milliner came off in-season IR, but word is that he is not yet ready to play. Marcus Williams will likely take Skrine’s place in nickel situations; he was awful two weeks ago in the loss at Oakland, but played much better last week against Jacksonville. On top of that RG Willie Colon (knee) has been placed on injured reserve, center Nick Mangold – though expected to play – is still recovering from a nasty neck injury, and third down back Bilal Powell (doubtful, ankle) has barely been able to get on the field since week three.

 

Despite all those injuries, the Jets do have some hope. Buffalo is the road team with one less day to prepare, and New York still has a very good defense. The Jet defense ranks 4th in yardage (323 ypg), 9th in scoring (20.3 ppg), and is great against the run (80.6 ypg, 1st; 3.8 ypc, 7th). Chris Ivory has struggled the last three weeks, but if Mangold is close to full strength then New York’s offensive lines is capable of opening up running lanes for Ivory like they did at the start of the season.

 

While Jet players are dropping like flies, Buffalo is getting healthier. Their only injury of note is to DT Kyle Williams, who is out with a knee injury. QB Tyrod Taylor is back; the Bills are 4-2 in his starts, 0-2 when EJ Manuel was under center. Taylor completed all but one pass last week (11-12, 181 yards, 1 TD, plus 44 yards rushing). Extrapolating to a full 16-game season, Taylor would project to throw for 3,408 yards with 71.8% completions, 27 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, plus 616 yards rushing. RB LeSean McCoy had his best game of the season last week (112 yards rushing, 7.0 yards per carry); though he did suffer a shoulder injury late in the game, he is probable for Thursday. Backup RB Karlos Williams also had his best game of the year last week, averaging over 12 yards per carry while rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Early in the season things looked good for Buffalo. At the start of the season the Bills upset the Colts, lost by only eight to the Patriots, and then crushed the Dolphins 41-14. We soon found out that Indy and Miami were nowhere near as good as they were hyped to be in the off-season, and the Bills have yet to win consecutive games. This is the first of three straight (and five of the next six) games on the road for Buffalo; if they have any hope for the playoffs they really need to win this one. The Bills are catching a beat up Jet team at the right time, while at the same time their key players are getting healthier. Despite Buffalo’s penchant for undisciplined play under Ryan – the Bills lead the NFL in penalties (10.6 per game) and penalty yards (95.5 per game) – the Jets simply appear to be a bit too beat up right now.

 

Prediction: Bills 24, Jets 20

Picks: Bills +2½ (one unit) . . . . . over 42½ . . . . . Bills +115

 

Week 10 NFL Television: Patriots, Broncos split late game broadcast distribution

John Morgan
November 9, 2015 at 11:00 pm ET

The good news for out of town Pats fans is that New England Patriots’ game will receive far greater broadcast distribution in week ten than it did in week nine versus Washington. The bad news is that even though it is a late game, is back on CBS and the network has this week’s doubleheader, the game still won’t get virtually universal distribution – like Denver at Indianapolis did last week, or Seattle at Dallas did in week eight, or Cowboys at Giants did in week seven. CBS has assigned their top broadcast team of Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson to cover the game between New England and New York.

 

The Patriots-Giants game will be broadcast in most all of the eastern United States, while Kansas City at Denver will be aired throughout all of the continental western states. Here is a look at the split:

 

8-0 Patriots (-7) at 5-4 Giants (over/under 55):

Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, DC, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana (except Indianapolis and South Bend), Kentucky (except Bowling Green), Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Memphis TN, Texas (except Amarillo and Houston), Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

 

3-5 Chiefs at 7-1 Broncos (-6½, o/u 42):

Arizona, Arkansas, California (except SF/Oakland), Colorado, Idaho, Indianapolis IN, South Bend IN, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Tennessee (except Memphis), Amarillo TX, Houston TX, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

 

The New England area will receive the Dolphins at Eagles as the early game on CBS and Detroit at Green Bay as the early game on FOX. The three prime time games are Buffalo at the Jets Thursday night, Arizona at Seattle Sunday, and Houston at Cincinnati on Monday night. Here is the network broadcast distribution and announcer for the rest of week ten, along with odds as of Monday night.

 

4-4 Buffalo Bills at 5-3 New York Jets (-2½) (opened w/Bills -1); over/under 43

Thursday Nov 12 at 8:25 pm on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Chris Simms

Broadcast in all markets.

 

1-7 Detroit Lions at 6-2 Green Bay Packers (-11½) (opened w/GB -11½); over/under 48

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Chico CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky (except Bowling Green), Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio (except Cleveland), Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

 

2-6 Dallas Cowboys at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1½) (opened w/Dal -1); over/under 43

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch

Broadcast in Arkansas, Florida (except Jacksonville and Miami), Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

 

8-0 Carolina Panthers (-4½) at 2-6 Tennessee Titans (opened w/Car -6); over/under 43

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis

Broadcast in Huntsville AL, Bowling Green KY, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Beckley WV.

 

23-5 Chicago Bears at 4-4 St. Louis Rams (-8) (opened w/StL -7½); over/under 42½

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; TBA

Broadcast in Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Reno NV, North Dakota, South Dakota, Spokane WA and Wisconsin (except Green Bay).

 

4-5 New Orleans Saints (-1½) at 3-5 Washington Redskins (opened w/NO -2½); over/under 50½

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston

Broadcast in Alabama (except Huntsville), Connecticut, DC, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia and Pittsburgh), Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia.

 

3-5 Miami Dolphins at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) (opened w/Phil -5½); over/under 47

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon

Broadcast in Connecticut, parts of Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, Panama City, West Palm Beach), Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York (except Buffalo), Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont and Richmond VA.

 

2-7 Cleveland Browns at 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (-4½) (opened w/Pit -7); over/under 41 

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Broadcast in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia (except Savannah), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Las Vegas NV, New Mexico, Buffalo NY, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), South Carolina, Tennessee (except Nashville), Utah, Virginia (except Charlottesville, Harrisonburg and Richmond), Washington (except Spokane), West Virginia and Wyoming.

 

2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars at 2-6 Baltimore Ravens (-5½) (opened w/Bal -6½); over/under 48

Sunday November 15 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots

Broadcast in DC, northern Florida (Jacksonville, Gainesville, Orlando, Tallahassee), southern Georgia (Albany, Savannah), Maryland and northern Virginia (Charlottesville, Harrisonburg).

 

6-2 Minnesota Vikings at 4-4 Oakland Raiders (-2½) (opened as a pick’em); over/under 42½

Sunday November 15 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber

Broadcast in California (except Chico), Jacksonville FL, Miami FL, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Cleveland OH, Philadelphia PA, Pittsburgh PA and South Dakota.

 

6-2 Arizona Cardinals at 4-4 Seattle Seahawks (-3) (opened w/Sea -2½); over/under 45

Sunday November 15 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Broadcast in all markets.

 

3-5 Houston Texans at 8-0 Cincinnati Bengals (-10½) (opened w/Cin -13); over/under 47½

Monday November 16 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN; Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden

Broadcast in all markets.

 

Bye Weeks:

6-3 Atlanta Falcons

4-5 Indianapolis Colts

2-67 San Diego Chargers

3-6 San Francisco 49ers