Tag Archives: NFC West

NFL Playoff Picture for Week 17

John Morgan
December 30, 2017 at 2:00 pm ET

The 2017 NFL regular season wraps up on Sunday afternoon. There is not as much drama this year compared to the week 17 of many previous seasons. The 2017 NFL playoff picture is relatively settled. In the AFC there are four teams battling for two wild card spots. The NFC still has one division title up for grabs, but has just two teams competing for one final playoff slot.

For the sake of clarity and sanity, ties have been omitted from the scenarios below.

 

AFC Playoff Picture for Week 17

12-3 New England Patriots
15½ point home favorites vs Jets.
Have clinched AFC East and a first round bye.
Clinch the #1 seed with either a win, or a Pittsburgh loss.

12-3 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 point home favorites vs Browns.
Have clinched AFC North and a first round bye.
Need a win plus a Patriots loss for #1 seed.
Are the #2 seed in any other scenario.

10-5 Jacksonville Jaguars
3 point underdogs at Tennessee.
Have clinched AFC South and #3 seed.
Locked into the #3 slot.

9-6 Kansas City Chiefs
3½ point underdogs at Denver.
Have clinched AFC West and #4 seed.
Locked into the #4 slot.

9-6 Baltimore Ravens
9½ point home favorites vs Cincinnati.
Become #5 seed with either a win, or losses by both Buffalo and Tennessee.
Become #6 spot with loss, and either Buffalo or Tennessee loses.
Miss playoffs with a loss, plus both Buffalo and Tennessee win.

8-7 Tennessee Titans
3 point home favorites vs Jacksonville.
Become #5 seed with a win, plus Baltimore loses.
Become #6 seed with a win, plus Baltimore wins.
Can still become #6 seed despite a loss if both Bills and Chargers lose.
Eliminated with a loss, plus a win by either the Bills or Chargers.

8-7 Los Angeles Chargers
8 point home favorites vs Oakland.
Become #6 seed with a win, plus both Tennessee and Buffalo lose.
Become #6 seed with a win, plus both Tennessee and Baltimore lose.
Chargers are eliminated with a loss, or if Tennessee wins, or if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses.

8-7 Buffalo Bills
2½ point favorites at Miami.
Clinch #5 seed with a win, plus losses by both Baltimore and Tennessee.
Become #6 seed with a win, plus Baltimore loses.
Become #6 seed with a win, plus both the Titans and the Chargers lose.
Eliminated with either a loss, or if the Titans and Ravens both win, or if the Chargers and Ravens both win.

 

NFC Playoff Picture for Week 17

13-2 Philadelphia Eagles
3 point home underdogs vs Dallas.
Have already clinched NFC East and #1 seed.

12-3 Minnesota Vikings
12 point home favorites vs Chicago.
Will be the #2 seed unless they lose, Carolina wins, plus the Saints and Rams both lose.

11-4 Los Angeles Rams
3½ point home underdogs vs San Francisco.
Clinch the #3 seed with a win, or with losses by both Carolina and New Orleans.
Drop to #4 seed with a loss, plus a win by either Carolina or New Orleans.

11-4 New Orleans Saints
7 point favorites at Tampa Bay.
Become #3 seed with a win, plus loss by Rams.
Win NFC South and #4 seed with either a win, or Carolina loss.
Become #5 seed with a loss, plus a Carolina win.

11-4 Carolina Panthers
3½ point underdogs at Atlanta.
Clinch #2 seed and first round bye with a win, plus losses by the Vikings, Saints and Rams.
Win NFC South and #3 seed with a win, plus losses by both the Saints and Rams.
Win NFC South and #4 seed with a win, plus loss by Saints.
Become #5 seed with either a loss, or a New Orleans win.

9-6 Atlanta Falcons
3½ point home favorites vs Carolina.
Make the playoffs as #6 seed with either a win, or a Seattle loss.
Miss the playoffs with a loss, plus Seattle wins.

9-6 Seattle Seahawks
9½ point home favorites vs Arizona.
Make the playoffs as #6 seed with both a win, plus Atlanta loss.
Miss the playoffs with either a loss, or an Atlanta win.

 

NFL Playoff Picture Entering Week 16

John Morgan
December 23, 2017 at 2:00 pm ET

Entering Week 16 five teams have clinched a playoff spot. The Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Eagles and Vikings have all punched a ticket for the post season. Philadelphia is the only team thus far to earn a first round bye.

In the AFC six teams have been eliminated: the Browns, Colts, Texans, Broncos, Bengals and Jets. The Dolphins and Raiders are technically alive, but comatose and on life support. The Chargers are not in much better shape, even though they are only one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. Most likely it is Ravens, Titans and Bills battling for two wild card spots.

The Giants, Bears, Forty Niners, Bucs, Cardinals, Skins and Packers are all officially eliminated. Dallas, Seattle and Detroit face tall odds to get in. Philadelphia and Minnesota have won their divisions and will host at least one playoff game. The only way the Rams don’t win the NFC West is to lose twice while Seattle wins twice. The NFC South is probably going to send three teams to the playoffs. Games involving the Saints, Panthers and Falcons are the most intriguing over the next two weeks. Atlanta is at New Orleans this week, and then the Falcons host Carolina next week.

For the sake of clarity (and sanity), I will not consider ties in the following playoff scenarios. Yes, I know they can happen: just ask Donovan McNabb.

 

AFC Playoff Picture

#1 (11-3) New England Patriots
Home vs 8-6 Bills, home vs 5-9 Jets.
Have clinched AFC East and at least #3 seed.
Clinch #2 seed with win, plus a loss by either Jacksonville or Pittsburgh.
Clinch #1 seed with win, plus losses by both Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.
Clinch #1 seed with two wins regardless of what else happens.

#2 (11-3) Pittsburgh Steelers
At 4-10 Texans, home vs 0-14 Browns.
Have clinched AFC North and at least #3 seed.
Clinch #2 seed with win, plus Jacksonville loss.

#3 (10-4) Jacksonville Jaguars
At 4-10 49ers, at 8-6 Titans.
Clinch AFC South and #3 seed with either a win, or a Tennessee loss.

#4 (8-6) Kansas City Chiefs
Home vs 6-8 Dolphins, at 5-9 Broncos.
Clinch AFC West and #4 seed with a win, plus a Chargers loss.

#5 (8-6) Tennessee Titans
Home vs 10-4 Rams, home vs 10-4 Jaguars.
Clinch playoff spot with a win, plus losses by both the Bills and Ravens.

#6 (8-6) Baltimore Ravens
Home vs 3-11 Colts, home vs 5-9 Bengals.
Clinch playoff spot with two wins.

#7 (8-6) Buffalo Bills
At 11-3 Patriots, at 6-8 Dolphins.

#8 (7-7) Los Angeles Chargers
At 5-9 Jets, home vs 6-8 Raiders.
Eliminated with a loss.
Can win AFC West and #4 seed with two wins, plus two losses by Kansas City.
Scenario #1 as a wild card: win twice, Titans lose twice, Ravens win or lose out (don’t go 1-1), and Bills lose at least once.
Scenario #2 as a wild card: win twice, Ravens lose twice Titans win or lose out (don’t go 1-1), and Bills lose at least once.

#9 (6-8) Oakland Raiders
At 12-2 Eagles, at 7-7 Chargers.
Can only be a #6 seed, or miss playoffs.
Eliminated with a loss.
To make the playoffs the Raiders need to win twice while Buffalo and Tennessee both lose twice, Miami wins twice, and Baltimore wins at least once.

#10 (6-8) Miami Dolphins
At 8-6 Chiefs, home vs 8-6 Bills.
Eliminated with a loss.
Scenario #1 as a wild card: win twice, Titans lose twice, Bills lose to Pats, Chiefs lose to Broncos, and Raiders lose at least once.
Scenario #2 as a wild card: win twice, Ravens lose twice, Bills lose to Pats, Chiefs lose to Broncos, and Raiders lose to Chargers.

 

NFC Playoff Picture

#1 (12-2) Philadelphia Eagles
Home vs 6-8 Raiders, home vs 8-6 Cowboys.
Have clinched NFC East and at least #2 seed.
Clinch #1 seed with either a win, or a Vikings loss.

#2 (11-3) Minnesota Vikings
At 7-7 Packers, home vs 4-10 Bears.
Have clinched NFC North.
Clinch #3 seed with either a win, or a Rams loss.
Clinch #2 seed with both a win, plus a Panthers loss.

#3 (10-4) Los Angeles Rams
At 8-6 Titans, home vs 4-10 49ers.
Clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Falcons, Panthers and Lions.
Clinch the NFC West and #3 seed with either a win, or a Seahawks loss.

#4 (10-4) New Orleans Saints
Home vs 9-5 Falcons, at 4-10 Bucs.
Clinch at least #5 seed with a win over Atlanta.
Clinch NFC West and at least #4 seed with win over Falcons, plus Panthers loss.

#5 (10-4) Carolina Panthers
Home vs 4-10 Bucs, at 9-5 Falcons.
Clinch playoff spot with a win.
Clinch at least #5 seed with a win, plus Saints loss to Falcons.

#6 (9-5) Atlanta Falcons
At 10-4 Saints, home vs 10-4 Panthers.
Clinch playoff spot with a win.

#7 (8-6) Detroit Lions
At 5-9 Bengals, home vs 7-7 Packers.
Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
Scenario #1 as wild card: win twice while Falcons lose twice.
Scenario #2: win twice, and either Saints or Panthers lose twice, and either Seahawks or Cowboys win twice.

#8 (8-6) Seattle Seahawks
At 8-6 Cowboys, home vs 6-8 Cardinals.
Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
Must win twice plus Rams lose twice to win NFC West and #4 seed.
Scenario #1 as wild card: win twice, Panthers lose twice, and Saints lose twice.
Scenario #2: win twice, Lions lose at least once, and one of Panthers, Saints or Falcons lose twice.

#9 (8-6) Dallas Cowboys
Home vs 8-6 Cowboys, at 12-2 Eagles.
Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
Scenario #1 as wild card: win twice, Panthers lose twice, and Saints lose twice.
Scenario #2: win twice, Lions lose at least once, and of Panthers, Saints or Falcons lose twice.

 

NFL Week 16 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

 

NFL Week 15 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
December 17, 2016 at 1:00 pm ET

It is mid-December and we are in the final stretch of the 2016 NFL season. In recent weeks weather has played a role and that could be the case again this weekend. With only bowl games remaining for college football the NFL can now play on Saturdays. As a result the work crew at the Meadowlands will be busy, with a Jets game Saturday night and then a Giants game Sunday afternoon.

Rain and cold temperature is expected in northern New Jersey which will be a challenge for the visiting teams. Miami (vs Jets, Saturday) is used to much warmer weather in south Florida. Detroit (vs Giants, Sunday) is a cold weather city but the Lions play in a dome. Also on Sunday Green Bay is at Chicago where the wind chill is expected to be minus-18.

For all you need to know about clinching and elimination scenarios, check out Week 15 Playoff Picture: Six Teams Can Clinch Playoff Spots.

 

NFL Week 15 Television Broadcast Information

CBS has the doubleheader this week. In the early time slot Pittsburgh at Cincinnati will receive most of the broadcast distribution. For the late game the Patriots at Broncos will air across almost all of the United States. CBS will send Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and their top production team to work that game. The Lions at Giants will be televised on most Fox affiliates, in the early time frame. To see what is being televised where you will be on Sunday please check out Patriot fan JP Kirby’s 506 Sports Week 15 NFL Maps.

 

AFC East Participation Trophy Game

★★★ 8-5 Miami Dolphins at 4-9 New York Jets
Saturday December 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NFLN; Mike Tirico, Doug Flutie, Heather Cox.
Dolphins -2½ . . . . over/under 37½ . . . . MIA -140, NYJ +120

Why has New York had such a large drop from their 10-6 2015 record? The Jets rank 31st in giveaways and 30th in takeaways. Their minus-16 turnover differential is 31st (two-win Jacksonville is minus-17). I doubt that will improve any in tonight’s cold and wet weather, even against a rusty backup quarterback.

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 17
Dolphins -2½ . . . . . under 37½ . . . . . Miami -140

 

NFL Week 15 Early Games on FOX

★★★★★ 9-4 Detroit Lions at 9-4 New York Giants
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
Giants -4 . . . . over/under 41 . . . . NYG -190, DET +170

The Lions have won five straight and eight of their last nine games. Over the last seven games Detroit is allowing just 16.4 points per game. However center Travis Swanson is out with a concussion. The Giants have a very solid pass rush and could take advantage with pressure up the middle. Matthew Stafford is dealing with a dislocated finger. After suffering the injury last week most of Stafford’s throws were fine, though he was off on a couple of passes.

The Giants were fortunate to win last week, with Dallas dropping what should have been three Eli Manning interceptions. New York’s offensive line did not look very good, unable to figure out what to do whenever confronted with a Dallas pass rush stunt. The Detroit defense is superior up front than Dallas and capable of forcing many three-and-outs. With Darius Slay at corner the Lions are also better equipped to cover Odell Beckham.

The Lions and Giants have made a habit of winning close games. Both teams have won eight games by seven points or less. Expect another close battle here. I liked the Lions a lot when the spread opened at -5½, but I’ll still take Detroit at four points – despite the injuries to Swanson and Stafford.

Prediction: Lions 17, Giants 16
Lions +4 (two units) . . . . . under 41 (one unit) . . . . . Detroit +170

 

★★★ 5-8 Philadelphia Eagles at 7-6 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.
Ravens -6 . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . BAL -250, PHI +210

After a 3-0 start the Eagles have not looked good. Since that time Philly has had only two victories, home upsets versus Minnesota and Atlanta. In those eight other games Philadelphia is giving up an average of 27.5 points per game. The Eagles will be without Darren Sproles Sunday. That doesn’t help an offense that is scoring only 16 points per game during their current four game losing streak.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Eagles 17
Ravens -6 . . . . . over 40½ . . . . . Baltimore -250

 

★★★ 7-6 Green Bay Packers at 3-10 Chicago Bears
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.
Packers -5½ . . . . over/under 38½ . . . . GNB -250, CHI +210

Cold weather and gusty winds are expected to make this the coldest game in Chicago Bears’ history. Aaron Rodgers suffered a calf injury last week so that weather won’t help his situation. Green Bay is down to a third option of Ty Montgomery at running back. Eddie Lacy is on IR with an ankle injury and James Starks is doubtful after suffering a concussion in a car accident Monday. With Jordan Howard running the ball Chicago should be able to keep this game close.

Prediction: Packers 20, Bears 16
Bears +5½ (one unit) . . . . . under 38½ . . . . . Green Bay -250

 

NFL Week 15 Early Games on CBS

★★★ 6-7 Indianapolis Colts at 7-6 Minnesota Vikings
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon.
Vikings -5 . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . MIN -240, IND +200

Running back Adrian Peterson has been activated, though it remains to be seen how much he will play. The Colts are giving up 4.5 yards per rush; Peterson would be a huge boost to Minnesota’s anemic offense. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players. Indy LG Jack Mewhort’s season ended with a knee injury last week and his backup, Denzelle Good, is out with a concussion. Free safety Harrison Smith (ankle) and RG Brandon Fusco (concussion) are both out for the Vikings.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Colts 17
Colts +5 (one unit) . . . . . under 45½ (one unit) . . . . . Indianapolis +200

 

★★ 0-13 Cleveland Browns at 6-7 Buffalo Bills
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Tom McCarthy, Adam Archuleta.
Bills -10 . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . BUF -500, CLE +400

Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in points (28.8 ppg), yardage (397 ypg) and rushing (146 ypg). The Browns are also allowing 4.6 yards per rush (29th) and are last in the NFL on third down (48.2%). Expect a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy, who now has eight games with over 100 yards from scrimmage. While the Bills have almost zero chance of making the playoffs, they don’t want to be the team that lost to the Browns.

Prediction: Bills 27, Browns 13
Bills -10 . . . . . under 41½ . . . . . Buffalo -500

 

★★★★ 7-6 Tennessee Titans at 10-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl.
Chiefs -5½ . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . KAN -230, TEN +190

The big question is how Kansas City will perform without Derrick Johnson, who was lost last week with a torn Achilles. Tennessee ran for 180 yards last week against Denver, who has a comparable run defense to Kansas City. The Chiefs have had extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday, but this could be a trap game. Last week KC played Oakland, and they could be caught looking ahead to next week’s game against Denver. However Arrowhead offers one of the best home field advantages in the league and the crowd noise could lead to mistakes by the Titans. This Tennessee team is not used to playing in big games. KC has made a habit of capitalizing on opponent’s mistakes, resulting in an NFL-best 25 takeaways.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Titans 20
Titans +5½ (one unit) . . . . . over 41½ . . . . . Kansas City -260

 

★★ 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars at 7-6 Houston Texans
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker.
Texans -5½ . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . HOU -220, JAC +190

Houston has not won by six or more points since Week 8, but this is the Jaguars they are playing. The Jaguars have lost eight straight and just want the season to hurry up and be over. Jacksonville doesn’t force turnovers (a league-low eight takeaways) while giving the ball away 25 times. Houston should win easily despite their stagnant offense.

Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 13
Texans -5½ . . . . . under 39½ . . . . . Houston -220

 

★★★ 8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday December 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.
Steelers -3 . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . PIT -170, CIN +150

Cincinnati is allowing 4.5 yards per run (27th) and 119 rushing yards per game (25th). The Steelers ran for 240 yards on the road last week against what was supposedly a decent Buffalo defense. If Cincy sells out to stop Le’Veon Bell then Ben Roethlisberger will be more than happy to throw passes to Antonio Brown. The big concern is Pittsburgh’s penchant for playing down to the level of their competition. Pittsburgh struggled mightily on the road early this season with losses at Philadelphia, Miami and Baltimore. Is that a thing of the past after victories at Indianapolis and Buffalo?

Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 20
Steelers -3 . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -170

 

NFL Week 15 Late Games on FOX

★★★ 5-8 New Orleans Saints at 5-7-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale.
Cardinals -3 . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . ARI -150, NOR +130

Carson Palmer has not played well all season. The Arizona offensive line is incapable of either pass protection or run blocking. Now the Cardinal defense is being decimated with injuries. However, center Max Unger missed last week’s game and is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury. Without Unger opponents are able to collapse the pocket and apply pressure up the middle on Drew Brees. Look for Calais Campbell to be tormenting Brees all afternoon.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Saints 23
Saints +3 . . . . . under 50½ . . . . . New Orleans +130

 

★★ 1-12 San Francisco 49ers at 8-5 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman, Peter Schrager.
Falcons -13½ . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . ATL -900, SFO +600

Even without Julio Jones the Falcons should win easily. The Niners have had no defense all year, and now the offense has been weakened. LT Joe Staley is doubtful with a hamstring injury. On top of that C Daniel Kilgore and TE Vance McDonald were placed on IR this week.

Prediction: Falcons 31, Niners 13
Falcons -13½ . . . . . under 50½ . . . . . Atlanta

 

NFL Week 15 Late Games on CBS

★★★★★ 11-2 New England Patriots at 8-5 Denver Broncos
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Patriots -3 . . . . over/under 44 . . . . NWE -170, DEN +150

Denver’s run defense has taken a hit in comparison to recent seasons. The Broncos are allowing 127 yards rushing (29th) and 6.2 rushing first downs (28th) per game. The Patriots will try to run the ball with LeGarrette Blount, and utilize running backs Dion Lewis and James White as well. That would open things up for play action passes, and keep Denver pass rushers honest. The Broncos have been unable to run the ball, and neither Denver quarterback is capable of generating much offense.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Broncos 20
Patriots -3 (two units) . . . . . over 44 . . . . . New England -170

 

★★★★ 10-3 Oakland Raiders at 5-8 San Diego Chargers
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.
Raiders -3 . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . OAK -140, SDG +120

Oakland cannot stop the run. The Raiders are giving up 4.7 yards per carry (30th) and 120 yards rushing per game (26th). Unfortunately for San Diego Melvin Gordon is out with a hip injury and Danny Woodhead blew out his knee in September.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Chargers 27
Raiders -3 . . . . . over 49½ . . . . . Oakland -140

 

NFL Week 15 Prime Time Games

★★★★★ 8-5 Tampa Bay Bucs at 11-2 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday December 18 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Cowboys -7 . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . DAL -300, TAM +250

After looking atrocious early in the season, the Buccaneer defense has taken great strides. Over the last five games the Bucs have allowed an NFL-best 13.0 points per game. Much of that has to do with Keith Tandy replacing an ineffective Chris Conte at safety, but other players have stepped up their game as well. OLB Lavonte David and DT Gerald McCoy have been studs for a while. Now thy’re getting help from MLB Kwon Alexander and defensive ends Robert Ayers and Noah Spence. Wouldn’t an upset be fun, just to watch Jerrah’s reaction?

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 23
Buccaneers +7 (one unit) . . . . . over 46½ . . . . . Tampa Bay +250

 

★★★ 5-8 Carolina Panthers at 7-5-1 Washington Redskins
Monday December 19 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters.
Redskins -6½ . . . . over/under 51½ . . . . WAS -270, CAR +230

The Carolina offensive line is a mess. As a result Cam Newton cannot complete even fifty percent of his passes. On defense the post-Josh Norman era has not worked out well for the Panthers. Injuries to Luke Kuechly and Charles Johnson have exacerbated the situation.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Panthers 24
Redskins -6½ . . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Washington -270

 

Thursday: Rams at Seahawks.

My advice was to take the Seahawks, despite the huge spread.

I just don’t understand why Pete Carroll decided to go for a fake punt with a big lead in the fourth quarter. Wouldn’t he have been better off saving that play for a critical time in a meaningful game?

Prediction: Seahawks 34, Rams 9
Seahawks -15 (two units) . . . . . over 39½ . . . . . Seattle -1600

Final Score: Seahawks 24, Rams 3 ✓
Seahawks -15 ✓✓ . . . . . over 39½ x . . . . . Seahawks -1600 ✓

 

NFL Week 14 Parlays and Teasers

3-Game Parlay (one unit):
Giants vs Lions +4
Broncos vs Patriots +3
Colts at Vikings under 45½

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (one unit):
Cowboys vs Buccaneers +13
Giants vs Lions +10
Colts at Vikings under 51½
Niners vs Falcons -7½
Cardinals vs Saints +9
Chiefs vs Titans +11½

 

Tale of the Tape

Week 14 wasn’t bad at all, considering the fact that there were not many games that jumped out at me that were particularly advantageous.

Week 14 Results:
11-5 Straight Up
8-7-1 Against the Spread
6-10 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 4-0, +800
1-unit plays: 2-3, -130
3-Game Parlay: 1u, -110
5-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
16 units invested
6-5, +240 on $1760 risk.
+13.6% ROI

Year to Date Results:
125-81-2 Straight Up
110-92-6 Against the Spread
112-96 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 39-19-1, +3600
1-unit plays: 41-29-1, +900
Parlays: 3-9, +1300
Teasers: 6-6, +2390
97-68-3, +9110 on original $2310 risk.
394.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
30.4% ROI on $29,920 (272 units) of total weekly investments.

6-5, +240 on 16 units (+13.6%) in Week 14.
6-5, -90 on 18 units (-4.5%) in Week 13.
6-9-1, -360 on 28 units (-11.7%) in Week 12.
9-2, +2380 on 16 units (+135.2%) in Week 11.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

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NFL Week 16 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats 13.5 point favorites

John Morgan
December 15, 2016 at 4:20 pm ET

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has published their Advanced Lines for NFL Week 16. These early odds look ahead to the following week’s games for those willing to roll the dice. When visiting Sin City you can wager up to 3,000 clams on one of the games – prior to Sunday’s week 15 action occurring. While subsequent injuries can dramatically change the prognosis of future games, over reaction from the most recent result can also be minimized.

Once again the New England Patriots are listed as the heaviest favorite in Week 16. Two weeks ago the Pats defeated the Jets by only five points, but that result apparently did not sway the professional handicappers. The Patriots are at home this time, and the Jets already had their annual Super Bowl in that November 27 loss. New England has (with Dallas) the best record in the NFL, and is 10-3 against the spread. By Christmas Eve Gang Green could be in even more disarray than they already are now. The seven-game delta in season wins between the Patriots and Jets is the largest of the sixteen games on schedule for Week 16.

Only two games will be played on Sunday since that is Christmas, but they are both good ones. At 4:30 pm eastern time Baltimore is at Pittsburgh. These contests are always very physical and the last three games between these two have been decided by an average of just four points. To add further intrigue the winner will likely win the NFC North while the loser will be left scrambling for a playoff spot.

The Sunday night game is just as compelling. Denver travels to Kansas City in a battle of AFC West rivals. The Broncos are in a difficult situation, finishing the season with games against the Patriots, KC and Oakland. Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking and the Chiefs would love to be able to hammer a nail in the coffin on Denver’s season.

In the early time slot on Saturday the best game is Minnesota at Green Bay. Both teams are on the playoff bubble, currently two games behind the Lions in the NFC North. This week the Vikings are home against Indianapolis while the Packers travel to Chicago.

Tampa Bay plays the Saints for the second time in three weeks, this time in New Orleans. This game was flexed to the late afternoon time slot and will surely be the primary game for the doubleheader on Fox.

Week 16 wraps up with an unusual occurrence: a quality game on Monday Night Football. Detroit is at Dallas for what could possibly be a game for the number one seed, and a preview of the NFC conference finals. We will soon have a better idea of just how strong Detroit is. The 9-4 Lions finish the season at the Giants, at Dallas and home versus Green Bay.

The week kicks off on Thursday night with the Giants at Philadelphia. New York is one of five road teams to be favored in Week 16. That says more about the poor play of those home teams than anything else. The home dogs are Philly, the Bears, Panthers, Jaguars and Browns.

 

NFL Week 16 Early Advanced Look-Ahead Betting Lines

9-4 New York Giants (-3) at 5-8 Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday December 22 at 8:25 pm ET on NBC

7-5-1 Washington Redskins (-3½) at 3-10 Chicago Bears
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

8-5 Miami Dolphins at 6-7 Buffalo Bills (-3½)
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-8 New Orleans Saints (-3)
Saturday December 24 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

8-5 Atlanta Falcons (-2½) at 5-8 Carolina Panthers
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

7-6 Minnesota Vikings at 7-6 Green Bay Packers (-5)
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

4-9 New York Jets at 11-2 New England Patriots (-13½)
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

7-6 Tennessee Titans (-3½) at 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

5-8 San Diego Chargers (-4½) at 0-13 Cleveland Browns
Saturday December 24 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-7 Indianapolis Colts at 10-3 Oakland Raiders (-6)
Saturday December 24 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS

1-12 San Francisco 49ers at 4-9 Los Angeles Rams (-2½)
Saturday December 24 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

5-7-1 Arizona Cardinals at 8-4-1 Seattle Seahawks (-7½)
Saturday December 24 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 7-5 Houston Texans (-2½)
Saturday December 24 at 8:25 pm ET on NFLN

7-6 Baltimore Ravens at 8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-6½)
Sunday December 25 at 4:30 pm ET on NFLN

8-5 Denver Broncos at 10-3 Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Sunday December 25 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

9-4 Detroit Lions at 11-2 Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Monday December 26 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

 

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football

Back to this week’s games for a moment. Week fifteen kicks off tonight with a typical Thursday night game: a bad team being featured in prime time in a game that won’t be competitive. Yes Seattle lost last week to Green Bay. However the Seahawks have responded to their three losses this season with victories by an average of 19 points. And yes Seattle lost to the Rams in Week 2, but their offense – in particular their offensive line – is performing far better than they did in early September.

This is the leagues best offense facing the league’s worst offense. In a rebound situation. Back home in a stadium providing one of, if not the most favorable home field advantages in all pro sports. Against a rookie quarterback who did not play in a pro style offense in college, making just the fifth start of his career. Against a team that has given up after losing eight of their last nine games. A team averaging a mere 12 points per game since late October.

Take the Seahawks, despite the huge spread.

Prediction: Seahawks 34, Rams 9
Seahawks -15 (two units) . . . . . over 39½ . . . . . Seattle -1600

Final Score: Seahawks 24, Rams 3 ✓
Seahawks -15 ✓✓ . . . . . over 39½ x . . . . . Seahawks -1600 ✓

Week 15 NFL Playoff Picture: Six Teams Can Clinch Playoff Spots

John Morgan
at 7:00 am ET

Heading into Week 15 only the Dallas Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot. After this weekend that is bound to change. Six other teams, including the New England Patriots, can punch a ticket to the post-season this weekend.

In the AFC the Jets, Jaguars and Browns have been eliminated. San Diego and Cincinnati are all but done. And after last week’s losses the Colts and Bills are comatose and on life support. The Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders are going to be playing in January. That leaves the Steelers, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins vying for two post-season positions while Houston and Tennessee battle for the AFC South title.

Over in the NFC Dallas has clinched a playoff spot while on the other end the Niners, Rams and Bears are looking ahead to the draft. Four other teams – the Eagles, Panthers, Saints and Cardinals – are all but mathematically eliminated. With Seattle virtually assured of winning the NFC West that leaves seven teams going for four playoff slots.

I know ties happen – as Donovan McNabb and Jay Gruden now realize – but for the sake of clarity (and sanity) I’ll avoid bringing those possibilities up.

 

AFC East

11-2 New England Patriots
Currently AFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with three games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: at 8-5 Broncos; vs 4-9 Jets; at 8-5 Dolphins.
– Can clinch division title with either a win or a Miami loss.
– Can clinch a first round bye with a win.
– Can clinch a first round bye with (a) a Miami loss, plus either (b) a Pittsburgh loss.
– Can clinch a first round bye with (a) a Miami loss, plus (b) a Kansas City win.
– 99% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

8-5 Miami Dolphins
Currently AFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-18: at 4-9 Jets; at 6-7 Bills; vs 11-2 Patriots.
– Eliminated from division title with either a loss or a New England win.
– Eliminated from #5 slot with both (a) a loss, plus (b) a Kansas City win.
– 40% chance of making the playoffs.

6-7 Buffalo Bills
Currently AFC #11 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 0-13 Browns; vs 8-5 Dolphins; at 4-9 Jets.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) loss to Browns plus Miami wins; or (b) loss to Browns plus Baltimore wins; or (c) Broncos win.
– 2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

AFC West

10-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Currently AFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: vs 7-6 Titans; vs 8-5 Broncos; at 5-8 Chargers.
– Clinch a playoff spot with a win.
– Clinch a playoff spot with (a) a Broncos loss, plus either (b) a Baltimore or Pittsburgh loss.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with (a) a win, plus (b) a Miami loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a New England win.
– 74% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

10-3 Oakland Raiders
Currently AFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 5-8 Chargers; vs 6-7 Colts; at 8-5 Broncos.
– Clinch a playoff spot with a win.
– Clinch a playoff spot with (a) a Miami loss, plus (b) either a Pittsburgh or Baltimore loss, plus (c) either a Denver or Kansas City loss.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with (a) a win, plus (b) a Denver loss.
– 25% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

8-5 Denver Broncos
Currently AFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 31-8: vs 11-2 Patriots; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 10-3 Raiders.
– Eliminated from division title with either (a) a loss to Patriots, or (b) a Kansas City win.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with both (a) a loss to Patriots, plus (b) an Oakland win.
– 1% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 38% chance of making the playoffs.

5-8 San Diego Chargers
Currently AFC #13 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-19: vs 10-3 Raiders; at 0-13 Browns; vs 10-3 Chiefs.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with either (a) a Miami win, or (b) a Denver win, or (c) wins by both Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
– cannot win the AFC West.
– less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.

 

AFC North

8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently AFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 12-26-1: at 5-7-1 Bengals; vs 7-6 Ravens; vs 0-13 Browns.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) a loss, or (b) a New England win.
– Eliminated from first round bye with (a) a loss, plus (b) either a Kansas City, Oakland or Denver win.
– 80% chance of winning AFC North.
– 87% chance of making the playoffs.

7-6 Baltimore Ravens
Currently AFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-20-1: vs 5-8 Eagles; at 8-5 Steelers; at 5-7-1 Bengals.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a loss.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a win by either Kansas City, Oakland or Denver.
– 20% chance of winning AFC North.
– 30% chance of making the playoffs.

5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Currently AFC #12 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-20-1: vs 8-5 Steelers; at 7-6 Texans; vs 7-6 Ravens.
– Eliminated from division title with a Baltimore win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss to Pittsburgh.
– Eliminated from playoffs with both (a) a Baltimore win, plus either (b) a Miami or Denver win.
– less than 1% chance of winning AFC North or making the playoffs.

 

AFC South

7-6 Houston Texans
Currently AFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 14-24-1: at vs 2-11 Jaguars; vs 5-7-1 Bengals; at 7-6 Titans.
– Eliminated from first round bye with a loss.
– Eliminated from number three seed with either a Kansas City, Oakland or Denver win.
– 78% chance of winning AFC South.
– 79% chance of making the playoffs.

7-6 Tennessee Titans
Currently AFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 10-3 Chiefs; at 2-11 Jaguars; vs 7-6 Texans.
– Eliminated from first round bye with either (a) a loss, or (b) an Oakland win, or (c) a Denver win.
– Eliminated from number three seed with both (a) a loss, and (b) a Pittsburgh win.
– 21% chance of winning AFC South.
– 23% chance of making the playoffs.

6-7 Indianapolis Colts
Currently AFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 7-6 Vikings; at 10-3 Raiders; vs 2-11 Jaguars.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss, plus either a Houston or Tennessee win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Miami win, plus (c) either a Houston or Tennessee win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Houston win, plus (c) either a Baltimore or Denver win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Tennessee win, plus (c) either a Baltimore or Denver win.
– 1% chance of winning AFC South.
– 2% chance of making the playoffs.

 

NFC East

11-1 Dallas Cowboys
Currently NFC #1 seed.
Remaining Opponents 22-17: vs 8-5 Buccaneers; vs 9-4 Lions; at 5-8 Eagles.
– Clinch division and first round bye with (a) a win, plus (b) Giants lose to Detroit.
– Clinch at least the #5 seed with either a win, or an Atlanta loss.
– 95% chance of winning the NFC East.
– Cowboys clinched a playoff spot in Week 13.

9-4 New York Giants
Currently NFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 9-4 Lions; at 5-8 Eagles; at 7-5-1 Redskins.
– Clinch playoff spot with (a) win vs Detroit, plus (b) losses by Green Bay, Minnesota and Washington.
– Eliminated from first round bye with loss to Detroit.
– Eliminated from division title with both a loss, plus Dallas win.
– 5% chance of winning NFC East.
– 79% chance of making playoffs.

7-5-1 Washington Redskins
Currently NFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-22: vs 5-8 Panthers; at 3-10 Bears; vs 9-4 Giants.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with both a loss, plus a Detroit loss to Giants.
– Can not win NFC East.
– 49% chance of making playoffs as wild card.

5-8 Philadelphia Eagles
Currently NFC #13 seed.
Remaining Opponents : at 7-6 Ravens; vs 9-4 Giants; vs 11-2 Cowboys.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a win by either Washington, Atlanta, Green Bay or Minnesota.
– Can not win NFC East.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs as #6 seed.

 

NFC North

9-4 Detroit Lions
Currently NFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 27-12: at 9-4 Giants; at 11-2 Cowboys; vs 7-6 Packers.
– Clinch NFC North with both a win, plus a Green Bay loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with both a loss, plus a Dallas win.
– 73% chance of winning NFC North.
– 80% chance of making playoffs.

7-6 Minnesota Vikings
Currently NFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 16-22: vs 6-7 Colts; at 7-6 Packers; vs 3-10 Bears.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss or a Detroit win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) Tampa Bay and Atlanta wins, plus (c) either a Washington or New York win.
– 5% chance of winning NFC North.
– 12% chance of making playoffs.

7-6 Green Bay Packers
Currently NFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-20: at 3-10 Bears; vs 7-6 Packers; at 9-4 Lions.
– Eliminated from division title with a loss or a Detroit win.
– Eliminated from first round bye with both a loss, plus a win by either Seattle, Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from #3 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) a Seattle win, plus (c) a win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) both Detroit and Washington wins.
– Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) a loss, plus (b) Detroit, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with (a) a loss, plus (b) Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Washington all win.
– 22% chance of winning NFC North.
– 26% chance of making playoffs.

 

NFC West

8-4-1 Seattle Seahawks
Currently NFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 10-28-1: vs 4-9 Rams; vs 5-7-1 Cardinals; at 1-12 49ers.
– Clinch NFC West with either a win, or an Arizona loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a Dallas win.
– 99% chance of winning NFC West.

5-7-1 Arizona Cardinals
Currently NFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-21-1: vs 5-8 Saints; at 8-4-1 Seahawks; at 4-9 Rams.
– Eliminated from division title with either a loss or a Seattle win.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by Seattle, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
– 1% chance of making the playoffs.

 

NFC South

8-5 Atlanta Falcons
Currently NFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 11-28: vs 1-12 49ers; at 5-8 Panthers; vs 5-8 Saints.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a Dallas win.
– 75% chance of winning NFC South.
– 91% chance of making playoffs.

8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Currently NFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-18: at 11-2 Cowboys; at 5-8 Saints; vs 5-8 Panthers.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss to Dallas.
– 25% chance of winning NFC South.
– 58% chance of making playoffs.

5-8 New Orleans Saints
Currently NFC #11 seed.
Remaining Opponents 21-17-1: at 5-7-1 Cardinals; vs 8-5 Buccaneers; at 8-5 Falcons.
– Eliminated from division title with win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by either (a) Atlanta and Tampa Bay, or (b) Atlanta and Washington, or (c) Tampa Bay and Washington.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by (a) Minnesota, plus (b) Green Bay, plus (c) either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs.

5-8 Carolina Panthers
Currently NFC #12 seed.
Remaining Opponents 23-15-1: at 7-5-1 Redskins; vs 8-5 Falcons; at 8-5 Buccaneers
– Eliminated from division title with win by either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by both Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
– Eliminated from playoffs with wins by (a) Minnesota, plus (b) Green Bay, plus (c) either Atlanta or Tampa Bay.
– less than 1% chance of making playoffs.

 

Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture: Pats, Seahawks, Cowboys Can Clinch Division Titles

John Morgan
December 11, 2016 at 10:00 am ET

It is December and we are now in the fourth quarter of the 2016 NFL regular season.

That means it is now late enough in the year that we can talk about playoff races.

Heading into Week 14 there are four teams that have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs: the Browns, Jaguars, Jets and Forty Niners. After this weekend six others will most likely officially be out of it: the Bengals, Chargers, Bears, Rams, Panthers and Eagles. The Cardinals, Saints and Bills are already on life support and could be declared dead very soon.

That leaves nineteen teams with varying possibilities fighting for twelve playoff spots. Here is a look at the current status of those teams heading into Sunday’s games.

 

AFC East

10-2 New England Patriots
Currently AFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 25-23: vs 7-5 Ravens; at 8-4 Broncos; vs 3-9 Jets; at 7-5 Dolphins.
– Can clinch division plus first round bye with (a) win vs Ravens, plus (b) Dolphins loss to Cardinals, plus (c) Steelers loss to Bills.
– Can clinch division and #3 seed with (a) win vs Ravens, plus (b) Dolphins loss to Cardinals.
– 98% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

7-5 Miami Dolphins
Currently AFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 24-23-1: vs 5-6-1 Cardinals; at 3-9 Jets; at 6-6 Bills; vs 10-2 Patriots.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss.
– Eliminated from division title with (a) loss to Cardinals, plus (b) Patriots win vs Ravens.
– 2% chance of winning the AFC East.
– 24% chance of making the playoffs.
– 76% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC West

10-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Currently AFC #2 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-17: vs 6-6 Titans; vs 8-4 Broncos; at 5-7 Chargers.
– 73% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

10-3 Oakland Raiders
Currently AFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 19-17: at 5-7 Chargers; vs 6-6 Colts; at 8-4 Broncos.
– 23% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 99% chance of making the playoffs.

8-4 Denver Broncos
Currently AFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents 36-14: at 6-6 Titans; vs 10-2 Patriots; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 10-3 Raiders.
– 4% chance of winning the AFC West.
– 58% chance of making the playoffs.
– 42% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC North

7-5 Baltimore Ravens
Currently AFC #3 seed.
Remaining Opponents 26-21-1: at 10-2 Patriots; vs 5-7 Eagles; at 7-5 Steelers; at 4-7-1 Bengals.
– 37% chance of winning AFC North.
– 42% chance of making the playoffs.
– 58% chance of missing the playoffs.

7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently AFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-30-1: at 6-6 Bills; at 4-7-1 Bengals; vs 7-5 Ravens; vs 0-12 Browns.
– 62% chance of winning AFC North.
– 68% chance of making the playoffs.
– 32% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

AFC South

6-6 Houston Texans
Currently AFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 18-29-1: at 6-6 Colts; vs 2-10 Jaguars; vs 4-7-1 Bengals; at 6-6 Titans.
– 59% chance of winning AFC South.
– 41% chance of missing the playoffs.

6-6 Indianapolis Colts
Currently AFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 6-6 Texans; at 6-6 Vikings; at 10-3 Raiders; vs 2-10 Jaguars.
– 28% chance of winning AFC South.
– 72% chance of missing the playoffs.

6-6 Tennessee Titans
Currently AFC #10 seed.
Remaining Opponents: vs 8-4 Broncos; at 10-3 Chiefs; at 2-10 Jaguars; vs 6-6 Texans.
– 13% chance of winning AFC South.
– 86% chance of missing the playoffs.

 

NFC East

11-1 Dallas Cowboys
Currently NFC #1 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 28-20: at 8-4 Giants; vs 7-5 Buccaneers; vs 8-4 Lions; at 5-7 Eagles.
– Can clinch division plus number one seed with (a) win at Giants, plus (b) Seahawks loss to Packers, plus (c) Lions loss to Bears.
– Can clinch division and bye with (a) win at Giants, plus either (b)Seahawks loss to Packers, or (c) lions loss to Bears.
– Can clinch division and #3 seed with win at Giants.
– Can clinch a playoff spot and #5 seed despite a loss, with either (a) Bucs loss to Saints, or (b) Falcons loss to Rams.
– 98% chance of winning the NFC East.
– Cowboys clinched a playoff spot in Week 13.

8-4 New York Giants
Currently NFC #5 seed.
Remaining Opponents 30-17-1: vs 11-1 Cowboys; vs 8-4 Lions; at 5-7 Eagles; at 6-5-1 Redskins.
– 2% chance of winning NFC East.
– 66% chance of making playoffs.
– 34% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from division title with loss to Cowboys.

6-5-1 Washington Redskins
Currently NFC #7 seed.
Remaining Opponents 20-28: at 5-7 Eagles; vs 4-8 Panthers; at 3-9 Bears; vs 8-4 Giants.
– Cannot win NFC East.
– 47% chance of making playoffs as wild card.
– 53% chance of missing playoffs.

 

NFC West

8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Currently NFC #2 seed.
3-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 16-31-1: at 6-6 Packers; vs 4-8 Rams; vs 5-6-1 Cardinals; at 1-11 49ers.
– 99% chance of winning NFC West.
– Can clinch division with a win, plus a Cardinals loss.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss, plus a Cowboys win.

 

NFC North

8-4 Detroit Lions
Currently NFC #3 seed.
2-game division lead with four games remaining.
Remaining Opponents 28-20: vs 3-9 Bears; at 8-4 Giants; at 11-1 Cowboys; vs 6-6 Packers.
– 79% chance of winning NFC North.
– 85% chance of making playoffs.
– 15% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with (a) loss to Bears, and (b) Cowboys win vs Giants.

6-6 Minnesota Vikings
Currently NFC #8 seed.
Remaining Opponents 17-31: at 2-10 Jaguars; vs 6-6 Colts; at 6-6 Packers; vs 3-9 Bears.
– 5% chance of winning NFC North.
– 23% chance of making playoffs.
– 77% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from first round bye with (a) loss to Jaguars, and (b) Seahawks win at Packers.
– Eliminated from division title with (a) loss to Jaguars, and (b) Lions win vs Bears.

6-6 Green Bay Packers
Currently NFC #9 seed.
Remaining Opponents 25-22-1: vs 8-3-1 Seahawks; at 3-9 Bears; vs 6-6 Packers; at 8-4 Lions.
– 16% chance of winning NFC North.
– 22% chance of making playoffs.
– 78% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from first round bye with loss to Seahawks.

 

NFC South

7-5 Atlanta Falcons
Currently NFC #4 seed.
Remaining Opponents 14-34: at 4-8 Rams; vs 1-11 49ers; at 4-8 Panthers; vs 5-7 Saints.
– 71% chance of winning NFC South.
– 87% chance of making playoffs.
– 13% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) loss to Rams, or (b) Cowboys win at Giants.

7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Currently NFC #6 seed.
Remaining Opponents : vs 5-7 Saints; at 11-1 Cowboys; at 5-7 Saints; vs 4-8 Panthers.
– 26% chance of winning NFC South.
– 60% chance of making playoffs.
– 40% chance of missing playoffs.
– Eliminated from #1 seed with either (a) loss to Saints, or (b) Cowboys win at Giants.

 

NFL Week 13 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
December 4, 2016 at 7:00 am ET

Despite the supposedly foolproof plan to avoid controversy in determining a champion, college football is in the midst of doing just that once again.

When it comes to football the reality is that our nations universities sold their souls in a quest for the almighty dollar long ago. The idea that it is all about kids getting an education is an insult to our intelligence. And that is before the absurd topic of player safety.

Colleges wanted to get away from six and eight team leagues, and form 12 and 14 team mega conferences. One of the benefits to doing so was a huge influx of cash for a championship game. This was made possible by having enough teams in a conference to create two divisions. The two division winners meet after the season is over and voilà, another big pay day for everyone except for those actually playing the game.

If that is the way you want to set this sport up, then fine. Have your mega-conference championship games, and then the winners of those games can meet in a mini-playoff series to determine the nation’s number one team. But thanks to our everyone-gets-a-trophy mentality, that’s not good enough. Gee whiz, what if a good team gets excluded?

Colleges and their boosters want it both ways. They want to financially benefit from conference championship games. But then they want to be able to send whatever team is actually the best one from their group to a national championship game – even if they did not win, or even play in their league’s title game.

Sorry it doesn’t – or at least should not work that way. How can anyone justify a team winning their conference and then tell them sorry, but another team that did not win your league is going to the playoffs for the national title? If you are going to do that then you need to eliminate conference championship games, because you just made them meaningless.

Want more happy thoughts? Consider this with Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now thankfully in the rear view mirror. More people in the United States shopped during that short time period than voted in the presidential election.

 

NFL Week 13 Early Games on CBS

★★ 7-4 Denver Broncos at 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.
Broncos -3½ . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . DEN -180, JAC +160
Broadcast in Tucson AZ, San Diego CA, Colorado, Jacksonville FL, Idaho (except Boise), New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

Denver has cooled off after beginning the season 4-0. Since then the Broncos are 3-4 with only one quality win, back in week seven against Houston. NFL teams have fared poorly the week after an overtime game, and Denver lost in OT last week. Now the Donkeys have to travel 1800 miles and leave the best home field advantage in the league behind – with a backup QB under center.

Normally that would be a recipe for disaster, but the Broncos are playing a moribund Jacksonville squad. The Jaguars own the league’s worst worst turnover differential at minus-15, which helps explain their record. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pose a huge mismatch for Jag tackles Kelvin Beachum and Jermy Parnell. Denver has had trouble stopping the run (4.3 yards per carry; 120 yards per game) but the Jacksonville line can’t open up lanes, and their running backs are pedestrian. The dropoff from Siemian to Paxton Lynch is at quarterback is minimal for Denver and a non-issue.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Jaguars 17
Broncos -3½ (two units) . . . . . under 39½ . . . . . Denver -180

Final Score: Broncos 20, Jaguars 10 ✓
Broncos -3½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 39½ ✓ . . . . . Broncos -180 ✓

 

★★★★★ 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs at 7-4 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl.
Falcons -5½ . . . . over/under 49 . . . . ATL -240, KAN +200
Broadcast in Alabama (except Mobile), Arkansas, Tallahassee FL, Tampa FL, Georgia, western Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana (except Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Shreveport), Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and western Virginia.

Similar to Denver, the Chiefs face the challenge of going on the road after playing five full quarters of football last week. Unlike the Broncos, KC has the polar opposite in strength of opposition. While Denver and now Oakland receive far more publicity, the Chiefs have quietly won 18 of their last 21 regular season games. An already good KC defense received a boost with the return of OLB Justin Houston from a knee injury.

The media has focused on Derek Carr’s injured finger, but Kansas City is another AFC West club with injury problems. NT Dontari Poe was unable to practice all week, so it is unlikely he’ll play. CB Marcus Peters will play, but even with a fully healthy hip he will have his hands full covering Julio Jones.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Chiefs 24
Chiefs +5½ . . . . . over 49 . . . . . Atlanta -240

Final Score: Chiefs 29, Falcons 28 x
Chiefs +5½ ✓ . . . . . over 49 ✓ . . . . . Falcons -240 x

 

★★★★ 6-5 Houston Texans at 5-6 Green Bay Packers
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.
Green Bay -6½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . GNB -270, HOU +230
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona (except Tucson), Connecticut, Hawaii, Boise ID, Illinois (except Chicago), Indiana, Kentucky, Shreveport LA, Michigan (except Detroit and Flint), Minnesota, Las Vegas NV, New York City, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas (except El Paso), Washington and Wisconsin.

Houston turned the ball over six times in the last two weeks, dropping to 6-5. Aaron Rodgers at home or Brock Osweiler on the road? Green Bay’s pass defense is poor, but they are very efficient against the run (3.8 yards per carry). Houston wants to run the ball behind Lamar Miller. If the Texans are unable to do so, Osweiler cannot keep pace with Rodgers in a shootout. There is a chance of snow, which would definitely benefit the Packers as well.

Prediction: Packers 24, Texans 13
Packers -6½ (two units) . . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . . Green Bay -270

Final Score: Packers 21, Texans 13 ✓
Packers -6½ ✓✓ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Packers -270 ✓

 

★★★★ 7-4 Miami Dolphins at 6-5 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, Chris Fischer.
Ravens -3½ . . . . over/under 41 . . . . BAL -180, MIA +160
Broadcast in Mobile AL, DC, Florida (except Jacksonville, Panama City and Tampa), Maryland, Ohio (except Cincinnati), Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), eastern Virginia and West Virginia.

Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil return to the Miami offensive line this week, though Mike Pouncey is still out. Baltimore also gets some good news on the injury front with the return of guard Marshal Yanda. The Ravens have rebounded from a four game losing streak punctuated with a loss to the Jets, winning three of their last four. Miami is even hotter, winning six straight after a 1-4 start to the season. Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi have played very well during that streak. Tannehill has thrown nine touchdown passes versus just one pick and Ajayi is averaging 122 rushing yards per game while finding the end zone five times in that winning span.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Ravens 20
Dolphins +3½ . . . . . over 41 . . . . . Miami +160

Final Score: Ravens 38, Dolphins 6 x
Dolphins +3½ x . . . . . over 41 ✓ . . . . . Dolphins +160 x

 

NFL Week 13 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 5-6 Philadelphia Eagles at 3-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Peter Schrager.
Bengals -1½ . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . CIN -125, PHI +105
Broadcast in DC, Salisbury MD, eastern Kentucky, Ohio (except Toledo), North Dakota, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

After starting the season 3-0 Philly’s season has gone down the toilet with six losses in their last eight games. The Eagles cannot win the division and would need to leap frog five teams to make the playoffs as a six seed. Cincinnati is headed in the same direction. The Bengals have lost three in a row and are showing no signs of interest in the post-season. Philly has lost five straight road games, with their only victory away coming against the Bears. Even without AJ Green I’ll give a very slight edge to Cincinnati here.

Prediction: Bengals 17, Eagles 16
Eagles +1½ . . . . . under 41½ . . . . . Cincinnati -125

Final Score: Bengals 32, Eagles 14 ✓
Eagles +1½ x . . . . . under 41½ x . . . . . Bengals -125 ✓

 

★★★★ 7-4 Detroit Lions at 5-6 New Orleans Saints
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale.
Saints -6 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . NOR -260, DET +220
Broadcast in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida (except Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach), Georgia (except Atlanta), Wichita KS, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Toledo OH, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin (except Green Bay).

Matthew Stafford should have a field day against a New Orleans defense that is allowing 28 points per game. Other than last week’s blowout over the Rams, the Saints have not been rather average at home. Even if New Orleans wins it is more likely going to be by three or four points than by more than a touchdown.

Prediction: Lions 34, Saints 31
Lions +6 (two units) . . . . . over 52½ (two units) . . . . . Detroit +220

Final Score: Lions 28, Saints 13 ✓
Lions +6 ✓✓ . . . . . over 52½ xx . . . . . Lions +220 ✓

 

1-10 San Francisco 49ers at 2-9 Chicago Bears
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.
Niners -2 . . . . over/under 43 . . . . SFO -130, CHI +110
Broadcast in northern California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Reno NV and Medford OR.

Who did Kenny Albert piss off to be assigned to cover this dumpster fire? The weather could play a factor in this game. With rain and/or snow in the forecast sloppy playing conditions could lead to turnovers and a low scoring game.

Prediction: Niners 20, Bears 14
Niners -2 . . . . . under 43 (one unit) . . . . . San Francisco -130

Final Score: Bears 26, Forty Niners 6 x
Niners -2 x . . . . . under 43 . . . . . Niners -130 x

 

★★★★ 4-7 Los Angeles Rams at 9-2 New England Patriots
Sunday December 4 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.
Patriots -13½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . NWE -900, LAR +600
Broadcast in New England, Arizona, southern California, Colorado, south Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, West Palm Beach), Hawaii, Idaho, southern Illinois, Kansas (except Wichita), Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Las Vegas NV, Oregon (except Medford), Tennessee (except Memphis), Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Bill Belichick game plans to limit the opposition’s primary threat. That means stopping running back Todd Gurley. Opponents have been successful with that same tactic all season, resulting in the Rams averaging an NFL-worst 15.5 points per game.

Robert Quinn did not practice all week due to a concussion. He is listed as questionable, but I don’t see how he can play in this game. Center Tim Barnes and LG Rodger Saffold are also questionable for the Rams; the Patriots are not the only team here with an injury concern. Despite the most recent Belichick-Jeff Fisher games (45-7 and 59-0 Pats victories), I’m inclined to believe that the LA defense bounces back from last week’s debacle in New Orleans. The Patriots will win but this is not going to be an easy cakewalk.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 17
Rams +13½ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . New England -900

Final Score: Patriots 26, Rams 10 ✓
Rams +13½ x . . . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . . . Patriots -900 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Late Games

★★★★ 6-5 Buffalo Bills at 9-2 Oakland Raiders
Sunday December 4 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.
Raiders -3 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . OAK -165, BUF +145
Broadcast in New England (except Hartford), Yuma AZ, California (except San Diego), Chicago IL, Baton Rouge LA, New Orleans LA, Detroit MI, Flint MI, Reno NV, New York (except New York City), Cincinnati OH, Oregon, Philadelphia PA and El Paso TX.

Buffalo enters the game with the NFL’s best rushing attack. The Bills are averaging 5.3 yards per carry, 157 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns – all best in the league. That is bad news for an Oakland defense allowing a 30th-ranked 4.6 yards per carry. With Derek Carr dealing with two dislocated fingers the Raiders could be in trouble here.

Prediction: Bills 27, Raiders 24
Bills +3 . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Buffalo +145

Final Score: Raiders 38, Bills 24 x
Bills +3 x . . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Bills +145 x

 

★★★ 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-6 San Diego Chargers
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, David Diehl, Holly Sonders.
Chargers -3½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . SDG -185, TAM +165
Broadcast in San Diego CA and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).

The Bucs have somehow worked their way into the playoff race. However their secondary is still bad, and Philip Rivers should be able to exploit that deficiency. Tampa Bay won’t be able to cover Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. Melvin Gordon will be able to gain big chunks of yardage on the ground with the focus on the passing game, but Tampa will keep it close. The Chargers have no answer for WR Mike Evans, and Jameis Winston has been making good decisions with the ball.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Buccaneers 24
Chargers -3½ . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . San Diego -185

Final Score: Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21 x
Chargers -3½ x . . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . . Chargers -185 x

 

★★★ 6-4-1 Washington Redskins at 4-6-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman, Kristina Pink.
Cardinals -2½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . ARI -135, WAS +115
Broadcast in Arizona, DC, North Carolina and Virginia.

Running back David Johnson has not been utilized enough by Arizona. If Bruce Arians gets his head out of his butt and figures that out then the Cardinals should win. Washington is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and doesn’t have the personnel to handle him on screen passes out of the backfield.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Redskins 23
Redskins +2½ . . . . . under 48½ . . . . . Arizona -135

Final Score: Cardinals 31, Redskins 23 ✓
Redskins +2½ x . . . . . under 48½ x . . . . . Cardinals -135 ✓

 

★★★★ 8-3 New York Giants at 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
Steelers -6 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . PIT -260, NYG +220
Broadcast in all markets except for those airing the Bucs-Chargers or Skins-Cardinals games above. Also not televised in San Francisco due to NFL broadcast rules, as the Raiders are playing at home at the same time.

The New York defense has received plenty of platitudes during their winning streak. However much of that can be attributed to facing inferior offenses led by mediocre quarterbacks. I like Pittsburgh here but a line of six points leaves me hesitant to place a wager on this game.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Giants 24
Steelers -6 . . . . . over 48½ . . . . . Pittsburgh -260

Final Score: Steelers 24, Giants 14 ✓
Steelers -6 ✓ . . . . . over 48½ x . . . . . Steelers -260 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Prime Time Games

★★★★ 4-7 Carolina Panthers at 7-3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday December 4 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Seahawks -7 . . . . over/under 44 . . . . SEA -350, CAR +290

Seattle was in a difficult spot last week, making a long road trip with injuries to key players. The Seahawks are back home and are also healthy again.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Panthers 13
Seahawks -7 (two units) . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Seattle -350

Final Score: Seahawks 40, Panthers 7 ✓
Seahawks -7 ✓✓ . . . . . under 44 x . . . . . Seahawks -350 ✓

 

★★ 5-6 Indianapolis Colts at 3-8 New York Jets
Monday December 5 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters.
Colts -1½ . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . IND -125, NYJ +105

The Jets had their Super Bowl last week. Expect that to be followed by the inevitable letdown, if that is possible for a three-win team.

Prediction: Colts 20, Jets 17
Colts -1½ (one unit) . . . . . under 48½ (two units) . . . . . Indianapolis -125

Final Score: Colts 41, Jets 10 ✓
Colts -1½ . . . . . under 48½ xx . . . . . Colts -125 ✓

 

★★★★ 10-1 Dallas Cowboys at 6-5 Minnesota Vikings
Thursday December 1 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
Cowboys -3 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . DAL -160, MIN +130

Along with most of the nation I did not expect this to be as close as it was. On one hand Dallas keeps finding ways to win, but on the other I can’t help but wonder if Ezekiel Elliott is hitting the rookie wall. Is it possible that the Cowboys peaked too soon and are running out of gas?

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Vikings 13
Cowboys -3 (two units) . . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Dallas -160

Final Score: Cowboys 17, Vikings 15 ✓
Cowboys -3 xx . . . . . under 43½ ✓ . . . . . Cowboys -160 ✓

 

NFL Week 13 Parlays and Teasers

3-Game Parlay (one unit): x
Lions at Saints over 52½ x
Panthers at Seahawks -7 ✓
Jets vs Colts -1½ ✓

5-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Lions at Saints over 46½ x
Panthers at Seahawks -1 ✓
Jets vs Colts +4½ ✓
Ravens vs Dolphins +9½ x
Saints vs Lions +12 ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week the total of the Packers at Eagles game killed me. The final score was 27-13 and I took over 47½ based primarily on Green Bay’s defense in recent weeks. I lost two units on the over, and also two units on a parlay and another two units on a teaser. That was a 5-game teaser that would have paid out 410 x 2. On paper the outcome cost me six units but in reality it was much more. Had the game gone over the delta between what I would have been up versus what I was down was a net 2450 (1790-660)! That one game wiped out the positive of hitting on my second largest play of the season, a four unit wager on Atlanta-Arizona.

Week 12 Results:
11-5 Straight Up
7-8-1 Against the Spread
8-8 Over/Under
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
2-unit plays: 3-3-1, -80
1-unit plays: 2-4, -240
3-Game Parlay: 2u, -220
5-Game Teaser: 2u, -220
28 units invested
6-9-1, -360 on $3080 risk.
-11.7% ROI

Year to Date Results:
104-71-2 Straight Up
94-77-5 Against the Spread
96-80 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
4-unit plays: 1-0, +400
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 32-16-1, +2910
1-unit plays: 36-26-1, +730
Parlays: 3-7, +1520
Teasers: 6-4, +2830
85-58-3, +9010 on original $2310 risk.
390.0% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
34.4% ROI on $26,180 (238 units) of total weekly investments.

6-9-1, -360 on 28 units (-11.7%) in Week 11.
4-9, -510 on 18 units (-25.8%) in Week 10.
7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

Seahawks at Patriots: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds and More

John Morgan
November 10, 2016 at 12:00 am ET

Super Bowl 49 was arguably the most exciting and memorable championship game in the history of the National Football League. On Sunday NFL fans will be treated to a rematch of that epic event as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Currently these two clubs are favorites to represent their respective conferences at NRG Stadium in Houston on February 5 for Super Bowl 51.

 

 

Who: 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks (1st in NFC West, 2nd in NFC) at 7-1 New England Patriots (1st in AFC East, 1st in AFC).

What: 2016 NFL Week Ten Game of the Week.

When: Sunday November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA; FieldTurf surface.

Weather: 10% chance of precipitation. Clear skies with a daytime high of 48° and overnight low of 30°. Winds at 5-10 mph; game time temperature in the mid to high thirties. Keep in mind that this is New England, so the forecast could very well change between now and kickoff.

Coaches: Pete Carroll is in his 11th year as an NFL head coach. Carroll is 98-69-1 in the regular season, and 9-6 in 15 playoff games. Now in his seventh year with Seattle, Petey is 65-38-1 (.630) with the Seahawks, plus 8-4 in the playoffs. Carroll’s teams have won two conference championships and one Super Bowl; his clubs have made it to the playoffs in seven of his ten years as head coach.

Bill Belichick is now in his 22nd year as an NFL head coach, with a 230-114 (.669) regular season record. BB also has 14 playoff appearances, including the last seven in a row. Belichick is 23-10 in the playoffs (22-9, .710 with the Patriots) with four Lombardi trophies and six conference championships. The Hoodie also has two Super Bowl rings as defensive coordinator for the Giants.

Odds: In the early advanced look-ahead lines published on Tuesday November 1 the Patriots were listed as 7½ point favorites. Those odds remained the same after Seattle’s victory over Buffalo on Monday night. As of Tuesday the over/under is 49. Heading into Week Ten the Patriots were listed as favorites at +200 (2:1) to win the Super Bowl. Next up are two NFC teams. The Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are both dropped from +1000 (10:1) to +800 (8:1) to win it all after their week nine victories.

Head-to-Head Series Record: Including the Super Bowl victory, the Patriots lead the all-time series 9-8. The two teams have met three times in the regular season since Bill Belichick became head coach of the Patriots. The Pats won 30-20 in the last game at Foxboro in 2004. In December of 2008 the Patriots won 24-21 when Sammy Morris vaulted in to the end zone on 4th and one with 2:44 left to play. In the U mad bro game of 2012 the Seahawks came from behind for a 24-23 home victory. Carroll has a 2-2 career record versus the Patriots, splitting two games in 1994 when he was with the Jets. Belichick is 4-2 against Seattle, including two games when he was with the Browns.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.

As you can see below this is a classic NFL great offense versus great defense matchup.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus Seattle Seahawks Defense

Scoring per Game: Patriots 27.1 (6th); Seahawks 16.8 (3rd)

Yardage per Game: Patriots 380 (7th); Seahawks 333 (9th)

First Downs per Game: Patriots 21.1 (14th); Seahawks 20.4 (15th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.0 (5th); Seahawks 4.9 (4th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 35.1 (8th); Seahawks 29.0 (7th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.56 (4th); Seahawks 1.36 (3rd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .744 (6th); Seahawks .655 (5th)

Points per Play: Patriots .429 (3rd); Seahawks .248 (1st)

Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.2 (1st); Seahawks 1.6 (1st)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.2 (8th); Seahawks 1.2 (2nd)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (6th); Seahawks 43.5% (2nd)

Plays per Game: Patriots 63.2 (21st); Seahawks 67.6 (29th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 6.38 (3rd); Seahawks 6.38 (29th)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Patriots 47.2% (4th); Seahawks 42.9% (26th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.9 (11th); Seahawks 1.5 (4th)

Punts per Game: Patriots 4.38 (8th); Seahawks 5.00 (9th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 116.4 (8th); Seahawks 98.8 (12th)

Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.88 (26th); Seahawks 3.53 (5th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 264 (9th); Seahawks 234 (10th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.90 (2nd); Seahawks 7.02 (14th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.48 (2nd); Seahawks 6.45 (11th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 69.9% (1st); Seahawks 62.4% (11th)

Passer Rating: Patriots 118.8 (2nd); Seahawks 81.6 (6th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots  Patriots +16 (2nd), 16/0; Seahawks  Patriots +0 (5th), 6/6

Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 21.8 (23rd); Seahawks 22.6 (14th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 9.4 (1st); Seahawks 13.6 (11th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.13 (11th); Seahawks 3.38 (1st)

Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 13.0 (12th); Seahawks 20.6 (2nd)

 

Seattle Seahawks Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Seahawks 20.3 (23rd); Patriots 16.5 (2nd)

Yardage: Seahawks 332 (26th); Patriots 354 (15th)

First Downs: Seahawks 18.0 (29th); Patriots 20.8 (20th)

Yards per Play: Seahawks 5.5 (16th); Patriots 5.4 (12th)

Yards per Drive: Seahawks 29.0 (26th); Patriots 32.5 (16th)

Points per Drive: Seahawks 1.62 (26th); Patriots 1.53 (6th)

Drive Success Rate: Seahawks .654 (27th); Patriots .700 (14th)

Points per Play: Seahawks .336 (19th); Patriots .252 (3rd)

Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 2.1 (24th); Patriots 1.9 (5th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Seahawks 1.8 (15th); Patriots 1.6 (12th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Seahawks 56.0% (16th); Patriots 59.1% (22nd)

Plays per Game: Seahawks 60.2 (29th); Patriots 65.5 (21st)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Seahawks 4.50 (26th); Patriots 5.38 (21st)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Seahawks 36.4% (24th); Patriots 40.6% (20th)

Punts per Offensive Score: Seahawks 1.3 (20th); Patriots 1.5 (6th)

Punts per Game: Seahawks 5.00 (17th); Patriots 4.50 (19th)

Rushing Yards: Seahawks 75.4 (30th); Patriots 101.6 (15th)

Yards per Carry: Seahawks 3.21 (30th); Patriots 4.15 (16th)

Passing Yards: Seahawks 257 (13th); Patriots 253 (18th)

Gross Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.92 (5th); Patriots 6.67 (7th)

Net Yards per Pass Attempt: Seahawks 7.39; Patriots 6.15

Completion Percentage: Seahawks 66.9% (7th); Patriots 62.5% (14th)

Passer Rating: Seahawks 95.9 (11th); Patriots 84.9 (10th)

TD Passes/Picks: Seahawks +5 (20th), 8/3; Patriots -4 (12th), 9/5

Complete Passes per Game: Seahawks 23.2 (17th); Patriots 24.6 (25th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Seahawks 11.5 (5th); Patriots 14.8 (5th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Seahawks 2.00 (9th); Patriots 1.63 (28th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Seahawks 18.5 (27th); Patriots 10.3 (27th)

 

Turnovers

Turnover Differential: Patriots +0.38 per game, 8th (+3 total); Seahawks +0.25 per game, 12th (+2 total)

Patriot Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Seahawk Takeaways: 1.00 per game, 23rd (8 total)

Seahawk Giveaways: 0.75 per game, 3rd (6 total); Patriot Takeaways: 1.13 per game, 20th (9 total)

 

Penalties

Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.5 (11th); Seahawks 8.1 (26th)

Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 61.9 (17th); Seahawks 71.9 (27th)

Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 7.1 (17th); Seahawks 6.4 (24th)

Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 57.5 (22nd); Seahawks 56.1 (23rd)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Total Weighted DVOA: Patriots 20.2% (4th); Seahawks 18.8% (6th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 19.2% (3rd); Seahawks -3.3% (18th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots 2.1% (19th); Seahawks -21.7% (3rd)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 2.4% (7th); Seahawks 0.7% (12th)

 

This game will be a very difficult task for the Patriots. The Seattle Seahawks still possess a formidable defense on all three levels. Coming off a bye the Pats do have the advantage of being both healthy and well rested, as well as having extra time to prepare for their opponent. Conversely Seattle not only has to overcome the challenge of traveling across three time zones, they also have to do so on a short week after playing Monday night. The Seahawks will have extra motivation of looking for revenge for their Super Bowl loss, but that extra adrenaline won’t be enough. I’ll take Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home with extra preparation time over the Legion of Doom defense.

Early Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 17

 

NFL Week 1 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
September 11, 2016 at 5:00 am ET

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

 

After the NFL season kicked off with an exciting game Thursday (complete with the requisite bit of controversy conspiracy theorists thrive on), the first week’s full slate of games get under way Sunday. On the undercard for the highly anticipated prime time game between the Patriots and Arizona Cardinals are a handful of interesting matchups. The Jets host Cincinnati early on CBS and Green Bay travels to Jacksonville on FOX for the best early games, while FOX will broadcast a pair of NFC East teams (surprise, surprise) to 95% of the country in their late doubleheader slot. As has been the recent tradition there will be two consecutive Monday night games this week: a good one with the Steelers at Washington early, and then a yawner with the Rams playing the Niners late.

Most of the New England area will receive the Bengals-Jets and Packers-Jaguars games early, followed by the Cowboys-Giants late. For all the out of town fans, check out JP Kirby’s NFL Maps to see what games are being broadcast in your neck of the woods.

 

★★★ Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, David Diehl
Falcons -2½ (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 48 . . . . ATL -135, TB +115

Last year Tampa Bay ranked in the top ten in yards per play on both offense (5.9, 3rd) and defense (5.2, 8th), but was done in by turnovers and untimely penalties. Atlanta has the oldest team in the league, and it is going to show late in games this season. I would like this game a lot more if the spread was 3½, but I still think the Bucs sneak away with a win here despite Julio Jones being such a mismatch for 5’10” CB Brent Grimes.

Prediction: Bucs 27, Falcons 20
Buccaneers +2½ (2 units) . . . . . under 48 . . . . . Bucs +115

Final Score: Bucs 31, Falcons 24 ✓
Bucs +2½ (2 units) ✓✓ … under 48 x … Bucs +115 ✓

 

★★ Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman
Vikings -2½ (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 40 . . . . MIN -145, TEN +125

Road teams being listed as favorites is always a tricky play, but I like the Vikings here. While the headlines would have you believe that Minnesota is doomed due to the loss of their starting quarterback, they still have an undervalued defense that ranked fifth in the NFL last year with 18.9 points allowed per game.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Titans 10
Vikings -2½ (2 units) . . . . . under 40 (3 units) . . . . . Vikings -145

Final Score: Vikings 25, Titans 16 ✓
Vikings -2½ (2 units) ✓✓ . . . under 40 (3 units) xxx . . . Vikings -145 ✓

 

★★ Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Eagles -3 (opened at -7½) . . . . over/under 41 . . . . PHI -165, CLE +145

How is it that nobody considers Sam Bradford to be an exceptional quarterback, but once he is traded away the line slides 4½ points? Considering that the home team gets three points, do people really feel that on a neutral field Philly is just as bad as the Browns? The smart move would have been to double down and taken Cleveland when it was plus 7½, and then middle that later with Philadelphia minus 3.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Browns 16
Eagles -3 . . . . . under 41 . . . . . Eagles -165

Final Score: Eagles 29, Brown 10 ✓
Eagles -3 ✓ . . . under 41 ✓ . . . Eagles -165 ✓

 

★★★★ Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Bengals -2½ (opened as pick) . . . . over/under 42 . . . . CIN -130, NYJ +110

Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick (17 turnovers last year) is a pick waiting to happen against a strong Cincy defense. However, the Jets have an elite defense as well. If Todd Bowles can coach his defense into containing A.J. Green, then Cincy will be counting on Andy Dalton making passes to Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd. For conspiracy theorists that believe that the NFL NYJFL league offices may not necessarily fix games but certainly tilt the lever towards a desired outcome, consider this: the team from New York will be playing their season opener on the 15th anniversary of 9/11.

Prediction: Jets 17, Bengals 13
Jets +2½ (2 units) . . . . . under 42 (3 units) . . . . . Jets +110

Final Score: Bengals 23, Jets 22 x
Jets +2½ (2 units) ✓✓ . . . under 42 (3 units) ✓✓✓ . . . Jets +110 x

 

★★★★ Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber
Saints -1½ (opened as pick) . . . . over/under 52 . . . . NO -125, OAK +105

New Orleans allowed an NFL-worst 29.8 points per game last year, and will be without starting linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, who has a quad injury. The Saints have never lost a home season opener in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era; the dome will be rocking, which could give a relatively young and inexperienced Oakland club trouble at times. New Orleans DC Dennis Allen will dial up some exotic blitzes to mask the talent deficiency on defense, but Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree should be able to have their way with the New Orleans defensive backs. Look for All-Pro DE Khalil Mack to expose a shaky New Orleans offensive line.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Saints 24
Raiders +1½ (1 unit) . . . . . over 52 . . . . . Raiders +105

Final Score: Raiders 35, Saints 34 ✓
Raiders +1½ (1 unit) . . . over 52 ✓ . . . Raiders +105 ✓

 

★★★ San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Chiefs -7 (opened at -7½) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . KC -280, SD +240

In each of the last few years San Diego has been done in by multiple injuries, particularly to their offensive line. RB Melvin Gordon seems to be running well after dealing with a knee injury last year, and they have upgraded their defense as well with the additions of NT Brandon Mebane and LB Denzel Perryman to the starting lineup. This week the Chargers are healthy, but their opponent is not. KC will be without OLB Justin Houston, one of the best defensive players in the NFL. OLB Tamba Hali is dealing with a knee injury and though he will play he is expected to be used sparingly, and safety Eric Berry missed all of training camp. This game will be a lot closer than many expect it to be; I liked this better when it was 7½, but I will still take San Diego plus the points.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
Chargers +7 (1 unit) . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Chargers +240

Final Score: Chiefs 33, Chargers 27 (OT) ✓
Chargers +7 (1 unit) . . . under 44½ x . . . Chargers +240 x

 

★★★ Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Ravens -3 (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . BAL -165, BUF +145

Much has been made of all the injuries that the Ravens had last year, and that being an excuse for the precipitous drop to a 5-11 record. However, the fact is that they were losing before the injury bug hit; the only explanation for the downfall that they and the Colts experienced is that it was cosmic retribution for their complicity in the frame job and subsequent witch hunt that became known as deflategate. However, the Bills are without DE Shaq Lawson, DE Marcell Dareus, OT Seantrel Henderson, and seven more players on IR.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Bills 20
Ravens -3 . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Ravens -165

Final Score: Ravens 13, Bills 7 ✓
Ravens -3 ✓ . . . under 44½ ✓ . . . Ravens -165 ✓

 

★★★ Chicago Bears at Houston Texans
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis
Texans -6 (opened at -4½) . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . HOU -230, CHI +190

There has been a fair amount of hype about Houston after they shocked the ‘experts’ to win the AFC South last year, but let’s pump the brakes a little. J.J. Watt is dealing with a bad back, and perhaps more importantly their offensive line is without LT Duane Brown and C Nick Martin. The Bears improved in the off-season with the additions of inside linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, DE Akiem Hicks and LG Josh Sitton.

Prediction: Bears 24, Texans 20
Bears +6 (3 units) . . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Bears +190

Final Score: Texans 23, Bears 14 x
Bears +6 (3 units) xxx . . . over 43½ x . . . Bears +190 x

 

★★★★★ Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 11 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch
Packers -5½ (opened at -4½) . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . GB -210, JAX +180

Jacksonville is another AFC team that has received a lot of hype as being one that is on the rise, but Green Bay is arguably the best team in the NFC. The Packer defense is underrated and will get after Blake Bortles after Aaron Rodgers reunites with Jordy Nelson. I would have felt more strongly about this game had the line moved the other way or at least remained steady, but I’ll still give the Cheeseheads a slight lean here.

Prediction: Packers 27, Jaguars 20
Packers -5½ . . . . . under 47½ . . . . . Packers -210

Final Score: Packers 27, Jaguars 23 ✓
Packers -5½ x . . . under 47½ x . . . Packers -210 ✓

 

★★ Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 11 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Seahawks -10½ (opened at -7½) . . . . over/under 44 . . . . SEA -525, MIA +400

A rookie head coach gets to take his team on the road as far as possible within the continental US, to face a team that led the NFL in defense the last two years in the league’s loudest stadium. Seattle has some problems on their offensive line, but there is a good chance that Miami could be in line for a top five draft pick next spring. Despite all that I just can’t back a team to cover a double digit spread this early in the year without the benefit of watching them play some real games.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Dolphins 14
Dolphins +10½ . . . . . under 44 (2 units) . . . . . Dolphins +400

Final Score: Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10 ✓
Dolphins +10½ ✓. . . under 44 (2 units) ✓✓ . . . Dolphins +400 x

 

★★★ New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
pick’em (opened w/Cowboys -4) . . . . over/under 46 . . . . NYG -110, DAL -110

The Giants look good up front with their defense, but their offensive line is still a mess. Dallas has a very good offensive line, and that strength vs strength battle could determine the outcome. This will be our first opportunity to see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott in their first real NFL game.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Cowboys +0 . . . . . under 46 . . . . . Cowboys -110

Final Score: Giants 20, Cowboys 19 x
Cowboys +0 x . . . under 46 ✓ . . . Cowboys -110 x

 

★★★★ Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston
Colts -3 (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 51 . . . . IND -165, DET +145

For some reason many think that with a new season, Andrew Luck will lead the Colts to another division title. Dig deeper and you will find that Indy still has a horrible offensive line, no running game, an average defense and a below average head coach. Detroit has a good defense and finished last season with a 6-2 record after the bye. I’m happy to have bought in at six points, but I wouldn’t want to touch it at three; we all know who 345 Park Avenue wants to win this game.

Prediction: Colts 24, Lions 23
Lions +3 . . . . . under 51 . . . . . Lions +145

Final Score: Lions 39, Colts 35 x
Lions +3 ✓ . . . under 51 x . . . Lions +145 ✓

 

★★★★★ New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 11 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Cardinals -7 (opened w/Pats -1) . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . ARI -300, NE +250

One one side you have a team that will be without their quarterback who may be the greatest to ever play the position, without a tight end who may be the greatest to ever play the position, without both starting offensive tackles, without their best running back, and without both defensive ends from last year’s team. Now they have to go cross country to face an opponent with no noticeable losses off of a 13-3 season. This Patriot defense is underrated and Bill Belichick can never be counted out, but all those missing key players is just too much to overcome.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Patriots 13
Cardinals -7 . . . . . under 44½ (1 unit) . . . . . Cardinals -300

Final Score: Patriots 23, Cardinals 21 x
Cardinals -7 x . . . under 44½ (1 unit) . . . Cardinals -300 x

 

★★★★★ Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington
Sunday, September 12 at 7:10 pm ET on ESPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
Steelers -3 (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 50 . . . . PIT -145, WAS +125

The Steelers are the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC, but let’s not forget that they are without RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Martavis Bryan for this game. The addition of CB Josh Norman improves Washington’s defense, and a prime time crowd on opening weekend is always a huge plus for the home team.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Skins 23
Skins +3 . . . . . under 50 . . . . . Skins +125

Final Score: Steelers 38, Skins 16 ✓
Skins +3 x . . . under 50 x . . . Skins +125 x

 

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 12 at 10:20 pm ET on ESPN; Chris Berman, Steve Young
Rams -2½ (opened at -1) . . . . over/under 42½ . . . . LA -140, SF +120

The Rams are bad. The Niners are horrible. I have no idea why anybody outside of those two fan bases would want to watch this game.

Prediction: Rams 20, Niners 10
Rams -2½ . . . . . under 42½ (1 unit) . . . . . Rams -140

Final Score: 49ers 288, Rams 0 x
Rams -2½ x . . . under 42½ (1 unit) . . . Rams -140 x

 

Week 1 Results:
10-6 Straight Up
10-6 Against the Spread
9-7 Over/Under
21 units invested
9-2, +840 on $2310 risk
36.4% ROI
3-unit plays: 1-2, -360
2-unit plays: 4-0, +800
1-unit plays: 4-0, +400

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
January 2, 2016 at 9:00 pm ET

NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

While the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers enter NFL Week 17 with the most at stake, there are also plenty of other games on Sunday with critical playoff implications. Here is a look at all sixteen matchups, with predictions and picks against the spread.

One nice thing about the final week of the season for football fans is that two networks televise both an early and late game, plus restrictions that prohibit another game being televised while the local team plays a home game are lifted. There was a time when this was actually standard operating procedure: the AFL would televise two games on NBC, and the NFL would televise two games on CBS. Once the two leagues merged that ended though, and now pro football fans are forced to either pay big bucks or watch crappy games between losing teams far too often.

Most of the nation will receive the Jets game at Buffalo early on CBS, followed by Denver-San Diego in the late slot. FOX will telecast two of their favorite big market teams, Dallas vs Washington in a meaningless early game to most of the country, and then Seattle at Arizona gets the bulk of distribution in the late slot. The Pats-Dolphins game will only be available in New England and south Florida up to Tampa; for a full look at what is being broadcast where you are check out JP Kirby’s NFL Maps.

 

Happy 61st Birthday to Raymond Clayborn. The three-time Pro Bowler played in 191 games for the New England Patriots from 1977 to 1989, and was a finalist for the team’s Hall of Fame in 2014 and 2015. Clayborn holds the franchise record for most career interceptions with 36 (tied with Ty Law); in his rookie season he led the NFL with three kickoffs returned for touchdowns and a 31.0 yard return average. In 1985 Clayborn was a major factor in New England winning the AFC and making it to the Super Bowl, picking off six passes for interceptions that season. Clayborn is a member of both the Patriots 1970s and 1980s all-decade teams, and set a franchise record by playing in 161 consecutive games.

 

NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture, with Clinching and Elimination Scenarios

 

★★★★★ 12-3 New England Patriots at 5-10 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Patriots -10 (opened at -8) . . . . over/under 47 . . . . NEP -500, Mia +400

Missing their top two tackles, running backs and receivers has caused the New England offense to sputter of late, while the defense has been tested due to injuries to five key players. That should be enough for Miami to keep it close, but if the Dolphins could not beat a team with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, it is highly doubtful that they can defeat a club quarterbacked by Tom Brady.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +10 . . . . . over 47 . . . . . Dolphins +400

 

★★★★★ 10-5 New York Jets at 7-8 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Jets -3 (opened at -1½) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . NYJ -160, Buf +140

As difficult as it is to root for the Jets – or any team from New York – there would certainly be a bit of ironic humor with Gang Green clinching a playoff spot with a victory over Rex Ryan. Todd Bowles has completely out-coached the toe lover this season, while Ryan’s defense in Buffalo has under achieved and can now be considered no better than average at best. Undisciplined play and no LeSean McCoy leads to yet another ‘Super Bowl’ loss for Rex.

Prediction: Jets 24, Bills 20
Jets -3 . . . . . over 41½ . . . . . Bills +140

 

★★★★ 5-10 Baltimore Ravens at 11-4 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Tony Siragusa
Bengals -9½ (opened at -7) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . Cin -450, Bal +350

I believe that last week was the biggest game of the season for Baltimore, as they upended arch rival Pittsburgh to put a huge dent in the Steelers’ playoff aspirations. This could be an emotional letdown for the Ravens, while Cincinnati is playing for a first round bye.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 13
Bengals -9½ . . . . . under 41½ . . . . . Bengals -450

 

★★★★ 9-6 Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-12 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl
Steelers -11 (opened at -8½) . . . . over/under 47 . . . . Pit -600, Cle +450

The season is on the line for Pittsburgh, thanks to last week’s shocking debacle at Baltimore. The Steelers are allowing 278 yards passing per game, third worst in the NFL.  The Browns are down to Austin Davis at quarterback, but he’s an improvement over Johnny Manziel – and is capable of keeping it interesting with WR Travis Benjamin (913 yards, 5 TD) and TE Gary Barnidge (977 yards, 9 TD) against a very shaky Pittsburgh pass defense.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Browns 21
Browns +11 . . . . . over 47 . . . . . Steelers -600

 

★★★ 6-9 New Orleans Saints at 8-7 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, Matt Millen, Peter Schrager
Falcons -5½ (opened at -2½) . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . Atl -250, NO +210

Is this the last game for either Drew Brees or Sean Payton with New Orleans? Perhaps, but it is undoubtedly the final game for many Saints defensive players. The New Orleans D ranks 32nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 31st in passing yards, 32nd in yards per pass attempt, 32nd in touchdown passes, 32nd in opponent passer rating, 31st in rushing yards, and 32nd in yards per carry.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Saints 31
Saints +5½ . . . . . over 52½ . . . . . Saints +210

 

★★★ 5-10 Jacksonville Jaguars at 8-7 Houston Texans
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Texans -6½ (opened at -5½) . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . Hou -270, Jax +230

Houston’s defense has been schizophrenic this year. In the Texans’ eight wins they have allowed just 10.0 points per game, but in their seven losses that figure is more than doubled, at 22.7 points per game. Jacksonville rookie RB TJ Yeldon is out for this game, which means old friend Jonas Gray should get some extended playing time; Gray averaged 6.2 yards per carry last week and is at 4.3 yards per carry for the season.

Prediction: Jaguars 27, Texans 24
Jaguars +6½ . . . . . over 45½ . . . . . Jaguars +230

 

★★ 8-7 Washington Redskins at 4-11 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Jennifer Hale
Cowboys -4 (opened at -4) . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . Dal -200, Was +170

Washington is locked in to the number four seed, so I would think that many starters will see little or no action in this game. The Skins were perceived by many to be one of the worst teams in the league entering the season; with that in mind Jay Gruden is deserving of some consideration for Coach of the Year.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Cowboys 17
Skins +4 . . . . . under 39½ . . . . . Skins +170

 

★★ 6-9 Detroit Lions at 6-9 Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Davis, Brady Quinn, Molly McGrath
Pick’em (opened w/Bears -1½) . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . Det -110, Chi -110

And the battle for last place in the NFC North goes to…. da Bears, who delivered just one home win to Chicago land faithful this season. However, a victory should mean nothing to Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell; how he has managed to stay employed in the NFL for 15 years is baffling.

Prediction: Lions 27, Bears 20
Lions pk . . . . . over 45½ . . . . . Lions -110

 

★★ 6-9 Philadelphia Eagles at 6-9 New York Giants
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin
Giants -4½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 51 . . . . NYG -240, Phil +200

On one hand you have Eagle players who would probably love to show that they can win without Chip Kelly. On the other sideline you have Giant players who would probably love to give Tom Coughlin a victory if this is indeed his final NFL game. If you hear anguished moans when New York does well on offense it is probably from a despondent fantasy football player who had to sit Odell Beckham last week due to his suspension, while fantasy football championship games were being played.

Prediction: Giants 31, Eagles 24
Giants -4½ . . . . . over 51 . . . . . Eagles +200

 

3-12 Tennessee Titans at 7-8 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker
Colts -6 (opened at -6) . . . . over/under 41½ . . . . Ind -320, Ten +260

The Colts need an eight-team parlay that would pay out over $150k on a $100 bet to go their way in order to make the playoffs. The most difficult leg of that scenario may be winning their own game, since they may have to rely on either Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley to be their starting quarterback. Freeman wasn’t even good enough to start full time for something called the Fall Experimental Football League a few weeks ago, so watching him play Sunday may be deviously entertaining if you enjoy a bit of Indy schadenfreude.

Prediction: Titans 20, Colts 17
Titans +6 . . . . . under 41½ . . . . . Titans +260

 

★★★★★ 9-6 Seattle Seahawks at 13-2 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Cardinals -6½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 47 . . . . Ariz -260, Sea +220

Seattle is locked into a wild card spot, and will be without both left tackle Russell Okung and right guard J.R. Sweezy for this game. However, Pete Carrol and his troops don’t want to enter the post-season on a two-game losing streak, and would love to wash away the stench from last week’s loss to the Rams.

Prediction: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 24
Seahawks +6½ . . . . . over 47 . . . . . Seahawks +220

 

★★★★ 7-8 Oakland Raiders at 10-5 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver
Chiefs -7 (opened at -6½) . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . KC -320, Oak +260

Kansas City has clinched a playoff spot but could win the division and take the number three seed with a win plus a Denver loss. The Raiders would love to spoil plans for their division rival. The Chiefs have not had that much of a home field advantage recently. Last week the 3-win Browns rushed for 232 yards in a 17-13 game at KC, and two weeks prior the Chiefs were only able to score ten points at Arrowhead against the 4-win Chargers.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 20
Raiders +7 . . . . . over 43½ . . . . . Raiders +260

 

★★★ 4-11 San Diego Chargers at 11-4 Denver Broncos
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Broncos -9 (opened at -7½) . . . . over/under 41 . . . . Den -450, SD +350

Denver’s vaunted pass defense has shown some vulnerabilities recently, so Philip Rivers and company do have a puncher’s chance here. The problem for San Diego is that their offensive line is a mess, and that is something Denver’s front seven will feast on.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chargers 13
Broncos -9 . . . . . under 41 . . . . . Broncos -450

 

★★★ 6-9 Tampa Bay Bucs at 14-1 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, David Diehl, Kristina Pink
Panthers -11½ (opened at -9½) . . . . over/under 46 . . . . Car -650, TB +475

How valuable was LB Kwon Alexander to Tampa Bay’s defense? The Bucs were 6-6 and just a game out of the playoff picture three weeks ago, but have lost three in a row since the rookie was suspended by the NFL for HgH.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Bucs 24
Bucs +11½ . . . . . over 46 . . . . . Bucs +475

 

7-8 St. Louis Rams at 4-11 San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Tom McCarthy, Adam Archuleta
Rams -3½ (opened at -3½) . . . . over/under 37½ . . . . StL -185, SF +165

The two worst offenses in the league. Nobody should have to watch this game.

Prediction: Rams 17, Niners 13
Rams -3½ . . . . . under 37½ . . . . . Rams -185

 

★★★★★ 10-5 Minnesota Vikings at 10-5 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 3 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Packers -3 (opened at -3) . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . GB -170, Min +150

Green Bay’s offensive line is in shambles, which is resulting in Aaron Rodgers getting hit far too often and having no time to wait for his receivers to finish their routes. The Packers would be wise to bring safety Morgan Burnett up near the line of scrimmage to limit Adrian Peterson, and dare the Vikings to win with Teddy Bridgewater. It is quite possible that the Packers could be swept at home within their division for the first time in franchise history.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 20
Packers -3 . . . . . under 45½ . . . . . Vikings +150