Your 2016 Pittsburgh Steelers (Playoff Edition)

[lillloyd]

Gonna split this mini-novella across a couple of posts. I'll start with some thoughts about Pitt and its development over the year, and then will go to the game itself.

This is a Different Steelers Team Now (Literally)

Few Steelers seasons have had so many in-season changes as this one.

• Ben was the headliner inactive in the first NE tilt, but other key players who missed that game included: Bud Dupree, Marcus Gilbert, Ladarius Green, Eli Rogers, Roosevelt Nix, and of course Cam Heyward and Marcus Wheaton (both of whom were later IR’d). Ryan Shazier played hurt (rotating in one out of every three series), as did Sammie Coates (who has since gone MIA).
• Dupree, James Harrison, and high roundrookies Artie Burns, Javon Hargrave, and Sean Davis have all been promoted to the starting defensive lineup.

Beyond the actual players on the field, Pittsburgh has morphed from a bombs-away offense to one that controls the ball through the run game. The defense has faster and more effective, particularly with its pass rush…but it’s also a much younger and inexperienced group.


The Offensive Line Is Pittsburgh’s Best Unit

Yes, Pitt has its ‘killer Bs’...but Ben and even Brown have had off years. It’s the OL has been consistently excellent.

Ben has been kept almost perfectly clean in the pocket—the line had allowed a league-best 17 sacks entering the final, meaningless game of the regular season (a game in which they rested starters). They’ve been equally dominant in the run game.

Pouncey and DeCastro are the obvious names – and while I think they may be bit overrated (both can be had by elite power rushers), they’re still top shelf talents. But it’s the vast improvements by RT Marcus Gilbert (who’s played at a near Pro Bowl level this year) and more recently, LT Allejandro Villenueva (who graded out as one of the league’s best tackles over the past half of the year) that has made all the difference. It’s a versatile, athletic group.

I’m lukewarm on PFF and analytics generally, but I did find the following tweet from PFF eye-popping:

# Steelers O-line as it’s playing right now may have the league’s best offensive line. As in better than Tennessee, Dallas. No weakness

Villanueva has become a Top-10 tackle over the last eight weeks. I can’t think of a mid-season switch like that for a lineman recently.​

Whether you believe that heady praise or not, Pitt’s OL will have to play like the best unit in the league on Sunday for Pittsburgh to have a chance.


“Road Ben” is a Real Thing…But Pitt Will Still Move The Ball

There are a lot of reasons for Ben’s inconsistent play this season. But one of them is Ben himself – he has been streaky with his accuracy, and less effective under pressure overall.

There is a world of difference statistically over the past two years between Ben’s home performance (super-human) and his road performance (run-of-the-mill). You can chalk some of this up to the entire team being more prone to subpar play on the road, and some of it to his young receivers…but the bottom line is Ben throws more picks and less touchdowns away from home.

That said, I think people may be taking things a bit too far lately when assessing Ben’s play – he did not morph into Brock Osweiler or Ryan Sixpatrick overnight. Here are Ben’s stats from his last 4 games against New England:

2010 30/49 387 3:1 97.9
2011 36/50 365 2:1 97.5 (WIN)
2013 28/48 400 4:2 95.8
2015 26/38 351 1:1 95.4​

So Ben is averaging 375 yards and 2.5 TDs against New England, and Pittsburgh as a whole has averaged 447 yards against New England in Ben’s last 4 games. Even the Landry Jones-led Steelers got 375. So between the 20s, Pitt should move the ball, and Ben should be just fine.

Whether they punch it in for TDs – since after all, games are not won on yardage totals (!) – against New England’s tough Red Zone defense is another matter entirely.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Gonna split this mini-novella across a couple of posts. I'll start with some thoughts about Pitt and its development over the year, and then will go to the game itself.

This is a Different Steelers Team Now (Literally)

Few Steelers seasons have had so many in-season changes as this one.

• Ben was the headliner inactive in the first NE tilt, but other key players who missed that game included: Bud Dupree, Marcus Gilbert, Ladarius Green, Eli Rogers, Roosevelt Nix, and of course Cam Heyward and Marcus Wheaton (both of whom were later IR’d). Ryan Shazier played hurt (rotating in one out of every three series), as did Sammie Coates (who has since gone MIA).
• Dupree, James Harrison, and high roundrookies Artie Burns, Javon Hargrave, and Sean Davis have all been promoted to the starting defensive lineup.

Beyond the actual players on the field, Pittsburgh has morphed from a bombs-away offense to one that controls the ball through the run game. The defense has faster and more effective, particularly with its pass rush…but it’s also a much younger and inexperienced group.


The Offensive Line Is Pittsburgh’s Best Unit

Yes, Pitt has its ‘killer Bs’...but Ben and even Brown have had off years. It’s the OL has been consistently excellent.

Ben has been kept almost perfectly clean in the pocket—the line had allowed a league-best 17 sacks entering the final, meaningless game of the regular season (a game in which they rested starters). They’ve been equally dominant in the run game.

Pouncey and DeCastro are the obvious names – and while I think they may be bit overrated (both can be had by elite power rushers), they’re still top shelf talents. But it’s the vast improvements by RT Marcus Gilbert (who’s played at a near Pro Bowl level this year) and more recently, LT Allejandro Villenueva (who graded out as one of the league’s best tackles over the past half of the year) that has made all the difference. It’s a versatile, athletic group.

I’m lukewarm on PFF and analytics generally, but I did find the following tweet from PFF eye-popping:

# Steelers O-line as it’s playing right now may have the league’s best offensive line. As in better than Tennessee, Dallas. No weakness

Villanueva has become a Top-10 tackle over the last eight weeks. I can’t think of a mid-season switch like that for a lineman recently.​

Whether you believe that heady praise or not, Pitt’s OL will have to play like the best unit in the league on Sunday for Pittsburgh to have a chance.


“Road Ben” is a Real Thing…But Pitt Will Still Move The Ball

There are a lot of reasons for Ben’s inconsistent play this season. But one of them is Ben himself – he has been streaky with his accuracy, and less effective under pressure overall.

There is a world of difference statistically over the past two years between Ben’s home performance (super-human) and his road performance (run-of-the-mill). You can chalk some of this up to the entire team being more prone to subpar play on the road, and some of it to his young receivers…but the bottom line is Ben throws more picks and less touchdowns away from home.

That said, I think people may be taking things a bit too far lately when assessing Ben’s play – he did not morph into Brock Osweiler or Ryan Sixpatrick overnight. Here are Ben’s stats from his last 4 games against New England:

2010 30/49 387 3:1 97.9
2011 36/50 365 2:1 97.5 (WIN)
2013 28/48 400 4:2 95.8
2015 26/38 351 1:1 95.4​

So Ben is averaging 375 yards and 2.5 TDs against New England, and Pittsburgh as a whole has averaged 447 yards against New England in Ben’s last 4 games. Even the Landry Jones-led Steelers got 375. So between the 20s, Pitt should move the ball, and Ben should be just fine.

Whether they punch it in for TDs – since after all, games are not won on yardage totals (!) – against New England’s tough Red Zone defense is another matter entirely.

Good post.

Do you believe Ben is not 100% healthy? Knee? Seems to be moving around ok? A reason for less than stellar accuracy?

 

[lillloyd]

And now for the game itself:

Matchups That Worry Me The Most

• Lawrence Timmons and James Harrison in coverage. Timmons – his 2nd half resurgence notwithstanding – is almost certainly the target of all kinds of Josh McDaniels game-planning. Lewis and James White will have major advantages in space on Timmons, Harrison, and Bud Dupree (who while super athletic is raw in coverage). It will be interesting to see how often Pitt tries to stay with 5 DBs to help with this…and whether NE will pound Blount effectively to counter those sets.

• NE receivers running wild down the seam. Steelers Depot does terrific analysis, so I’ll just post the link here: Film Room: Seams An Area For New England To Exploit Steelers - Steelers Depot

• New England’s coaching staff vs. Pittsburgh’s. No, I don’t think Tomlin is a ‘cheerleader’ who should be summarily fired so they can hire the next Bill Bellichick-in-waiting who’s just hanging around on the street (Look, there are a ton of ‘em, right over there!) Tomlin’s in-game management head scratchers aside, this is a good organization with a good coaching staff. But New England’s coaching staff is the Gold Standard -- peerless, both in its preparation and in-game adjustments. It’s a massive advantage for New England anytime they take the field, against any coaching staff. And it’s a matchup I just don’t see Pittsburgh winning – they can only hope to try to keep up.

Pittsburgh Can Win If…

• They get TDs in the RZ. Duh. Quite a challenge though against NE’s RZ defense, while on the road. On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s defense has been excellent in the RZ for two years running…can they force at least a couple of FGs inside the 20?

• They get pressure against Brady. Duh, part deux. Brady and New England’s offense are going to score points, period; it’s just a matter of whether Pitt can slow them down just enough to keep the game within reach. Pitt actually got some pressure (if not sacks) in the first game, and TB was more efficient than spectacular as a result. Pressure would go a long way towards keeping the game in striking distance.

• Pitt’s offensive line is as dominant as advertised. Good OL play means a productive running game and a clean pocket, plus the ball control required to limit NE offensive possessions. This is a matchup that Pittsburgh can win…if they don’t, Pitt has no chance.

• Pitt’s “other” receivers are productive (and assignment sound). Jesse James, Eli Rogers, Cobi Hamilton, Demarcus Ayers…all no-name guys that need to both make plays, and not zig when Ben zags with his throws. These guys need to be where they’re supposed to be, as nothing will turn this game more quickly than a bunch of TB/Floyd-type INTs.

The Chess Match

• New England: Take Away Bell, or Brown? Personally, I would line up Butler against Brown and give him help over the top (why screw around, when Pittsburgh’s other receiving threats are a bunch of newbie UDFAs and late rounders?) Patricia could then devote additional resources to the run game…but only if needed. (I’m sure they’ll want to see how their excellent run D performs in normal alignments, before adding defenders to the box).

• Will Pittsburgh run straight at New England, or opt to split Bell out wide? Pittsburgh seemed to opt more for the latter in the first matchup—and maybe that makes sense given that NE’s run D is a strength. If Bell is split out, how will New England opt to defend him? And will Pitt “throw to run”, to loosen up the Pats’ run D?

• Can New England force Pittsburgh out of its extra DB packages? Pittsburgh doesn’t spend a ton of time in its base defense (who does, anymore?), but New England will have a lot of options against their 5 DB look. If New England can grind Pittsburgh with Blount, Pitt will be forced into unfavorable matchups in the back end, against a team that routinely shreds them through the air.

X Factors

• The health of the pass catchers. Watching Michael Floyd last week made me think of all the misfires and miscommunications with Pitt’s young receivers this season. Malcolm Mitchell seems to have an excellent rapport with Brady , and would seem to be a significant upgrade over Floyd (at least, given where Floyd is with the offense). How healthy will Mitchell, as well as Hogan and Bennett (who were both dinged last week) be? On the flip side, is there any chance Ladarius Green can get back for this game? He was a major asset as a non-Brown, non-Bell receiving threat in the middle of the field, when healthy.

• Dion Lewis/James White. If Pittsburgh can’t corral these two it could be ‘death by a million paper cuts’ on Sunday. Brutal matchup for Pitt.

• Ryan Shazier. This is Pittsburgh’s most dynamic playmaker and best coverage linebacker, and the best counter to New England’s RBs (whether in the run or pass game). With a good game, Pittsburgh has a chance.

• Pittsburgh’s coaching staff. They’re not as good as New England’s – no staff is—but if nothing else, Pitt’s offensive and defensive coordinators are far less predictable than they once were. Haley can go pass-heavy or run-heavy effectively depending on the situation (with Bell’s versatility being the obvious lynchpin here), and Butler has been both blitz-heavy and coverage-oriented at different parts of the year. While not an ‘advantage’ per se, Pitt needs to at least keep NE somewhat off-balance, and needs to counter NE’s killer 2nd half adjustments effectively.

• Will New England blitz Roethlisberger more often? In any other year, this would be suicide; Ben (like Brady) is consistently one of the best QBs against the blitz. But Ben has struggled this year, and nowhere has that been more apparent than his performance against pressure, which has been middle-of-the-pack. On the road, and given Ben’s inconsistency, New England may be more likely to roll the dice than in previous meetings.

Prediction

My head says this is another unwinnable game in New England. In all likelihood, it will follow a similar script as previous games: Pitt will move the ball and score FGs, while New England will move the ball and score touchdowns. So my mind (and my wallet, if I were to bet this sort of a thing) says it will be a pretty comfortable New England win, along the lines of New England 35, Pittsburgh 20.

My gut feels like this could be a different story. There’s really no logical basis for this; the Pats have owned Pittsburgh, and it’s still BB/TFB in a home (!) playoff game. But Pitt’s been streaking, and I expect Ben to play up to the moment. New England (through no fault of its own) may not be as battle-tested heading into this game as they’ve been in previous years. At some point, you’d think that Pitt would sneak out a win just due to the law of averages; maybe this is the game where the ball bounces the Steelers’ way.

So for yuks, and just to say I’ve done it (I don’t think I’ve ever picked Pittsburgh before here?), I’ll go with:

Pittsburgh 27, New England 24.


Good luck on Sunday!

lillloyd

 

[FourierSeries]

Beyond the actual players on the field, Pittsburgh has morphed from a bombs-away offense to one that controls the ball through the run game. The defense has faster and more effective, particularly with its pass rush…but it’s also a much younger and inexperienced group.

Well, yeah - they've morphed from a "bombs away" offense to more of a run first offense because Ben has sucked, especially on the road, and therefore they've had to rely more on Bell. NE's run defense has been very good this season, so it will be interesting to see how they do against Bell this week (they did a good job against him in the previous meeting.)

Regarding the Steelers defense - it has definitely improved, but I'm not sure that means much for this particular game. They are pretty much the same Steelers defense, in terms of scheme, that Brady has had success against his entire career. If they continue to play zone and blitz on half of their snaps, as they've done for the last 8 games, they will get steamrolled without Brady even breaking a sweat.

 

[lillloyd]

robertweathers,

Ben's just had an off year. I think the injury during the MIA game impacted that game and the weeks following that game (even when he came back for the Ravens game, he was limited to shotgun). But I don't think that's an excuse for the entire year.

I think the problems opposite Antonio Brown are a factor as well. I don't think there's a lot of confidence that Eli Rogers etc will be where they should be, and that's magnified on the road. (Think of Floyd and Brady last game)

If history's any indicator, Ben will throw for a ton of yards Sunday but not get it in the EZ enough to win.

 

[SVN]

I am wondering if BB will do the 3 man rushes vs this oline like he did vs seattle to contain the passing game and acknowledge their good oline.

 

[lillloyd]

Fourier,

Zero argument that Pitt's D could get rolled this Sunday.

But as far as the defense being the 'same' - you mean as LeBeau's? Because they don't really play in the base 3-4 much anymore. A lot of big nickel.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thanks, lillloyd -- great posts.

The sense I get of the Steelers' D being "the same" is that it's all about the linebackers: they hit like trucks and it seems to me they depend on them for pass rush (with safety and corner blitzes off the edge) and zone coverage. Watching them against Balt/Miami/KC, they seemed VERY sound at not letting routine short catches turn into big plays (contrast Miami covering A. Brown!)

As for the offense, I agree that the weakness seems to be (potentially) over-dependence on Bell and Brown and Roethlisberger throwing dumb picks, even when not under a lot of pressure from the pass rush.

I agree with you about coaching, by the way -- Butler, Haley and Munchak are good coaches who don't need Tomlin to keep them up to the mark.

It's going to be an interesting game. Now if only we had the Gronk ...

 

[lillloyd]

Thanks, lillloyd -- great posts.

The sense I get of the Steelers' D being "the same" is that it's all about the linebackers: they hit like trucks and it seems to me they depend on them for pass rush (with safety and corner blitzes off the edge) and zone coverage. Watching them against Balt/Miami/KC, they seemed VERY sound at not letting routine short catches turn into big plays (contrast Miami covering A. Brown!)

As for the offense, I agree that the weakness seems to be (potentially) over-dependence on Bell and Brown and Roethlisberger throwing dumb picks, even when not under a lot of pressure from the pass rush.

I agree with you about coaching, by the way -- Butler, Haley and Munchak are good coaches who don't need Tomlin to keep them up to the mark.

It's going to be an interesting game. Now if only we had the Gronk ...

They've certainly gotten more athletic at LB, but Shazier is really the only one trustworthy in coverage.

As far as the pass rush goes, it's really been the D-linemen the past couple of years that have supplied more of the pass rush (Heyward, Tuitt), which is unusual. It's only when Dupree came off PUP and Harrison was inserted as a starter that we've seen an uptick in the OLB pass rush productivity.

Re/ Ben and Tomlin - I think there's a legit narrative in both cases (Ben *has* had an inconsistent year, and Tomlin *does* have in game management issues), but that those storylines have swung *too* far of late. Ben's still a good quarterback; Tomlin's a decent coach. Pats Nation has an embarrassment of riches with possible GOATs at both QB and head coach...most teams have to plod along with something less than that.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Always enjoy your pre-game posts lillloyd.

Why doesn't the Steelers forum even allow non-Steeler fans to register and post? It's easy enough to ban trolls after abusing them.

 

[lillloyd]

Always enjoy your pre-game posts lillloyd.

Why doesn't the Steelers forum even allow non-Steeler fans to register and post? It's easy enough to ban trolls after abusing them.

I can't speak for the Steelers forums. TBH the ongoing 'homer/anti-homer' feuds on some of those forums can be kind of overwhelming/all-encompassing, so I don't spend a ton of time over there.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Since you're here lillloyd, I have a question about the Steelers' roster-building because I'm curious how typical the Patriots are.

As you know, Belichick is a former Special Teams coach and he always places a great emphasis on Special Teams. So far so, that probably about 8 of the players on the 46 are there just as Special Teamers -- the three specialists (K, P, LS) plus at least 5 others who aren't worth their places even as backups for O or D (Slater, Bolden, Ebner, King, Grissom).

How do the Steelers do things? How many of their ST players are career special teamers and how many are genuine backups or developmental players who are paying their way by playing Special Teams?

 

[oldrover]

I can't speak for the Steelers forums. TBH the ongoing 'homer/anti-homer' feuds on some of those forums can be kind of overwhelming/all-encompassing, so I don't spend a ton of time over there.

Yeah, that kind of stuff never happens here.

 

[ViperGTS]

robertweathers,

Ben's just had an off year. I think the injury during the MIA game impacted that game and the weeks following that game (even when he came back for the Ravens game, he was limited to shotgun). But I don't think that's an excuse for the entire year.

I think the problems opposite Antonio Brown are a factor as well. I don't think there's a lot of confidence that Eli Rogers etc will be where they should be, and that's magnified on the road. (Think of Floyd and Brady last game)

If history's any indicator, Ben will throw for a ton of yards Sunday but not get it in the EZ enough to win.

He had 14 yards rushing all season. 14. Pats don't have to worry about him running. Huge difference, your first score you said was more correct than your final prediction. I think Pitt will have a tough time getting to 17.

 

[lillloyd]

Since you're here lillloyd, I have a question about the Steelers' roster-building because I'm curious how typical the Patriots are.

As you know, Belichick is a former Special Teams coach and he always places a great emphasis on Special Teams. So far so, that probably about 8 of the players on the 46 are there just as Special Teamers -- the three specialists (K, P, LS) plus at least 5 others who aren't worth their places even as backups for O or D (Slater, Bolden, Ebner, King, Grissom).

How do the Steelers do things? How many of their ST players are career special teamers and how many are genuine backups or developmental players who are paying their way by playing Special Teams?

I think they kind of have the same philosophy; the last few roster spots are for core special teamers.

We've had depth issues the past couple of years that are only now being rectified, so we've had some of those core STs actually have to play legitimate roles on the offense or defense (I'm thinking of Robert Golden and Darius Heyward-Bey here). I would put Shamarko Thomas in this category as well. But I'd say that some of the most important special teamers play LB, and could eventually contribute much more than just ST, if not as a starter than as a key reserve.

Getting some of those guys back just before the KC game was a huge deal, as we were able to keep Tyreek Hill under wraps. Pretty nerve-wracking, kicking to that guy.

 

[lillloyd]

He had 14 yards rushing all season. 14. Pats don't have to worry about him running. Huge difference, your first score you said was more correct than your final prediction. I think Pitt will have a tough time getting to 17.

Are you talking about Ben? Huge difference relative to what? Not following what you're referencing here.

He's never been a running threat...not sure what you're referencing here, but Ben's running should have about as much an impact on the game as Brady's...

 

[lillloyd]

Yeah, that kind of stuff never happens here.

You'd think there'd be precious little fodder for the anti-homer camp on a Patriots site

 

[pazrul72]

Hey lllloyd I just want to say as always it is a pleasure to have you here and I enjoy your thoughtful articulate posts from the opposing view immensely. Don't worry about your gut vrs head problem that's part of being a fan and I wouldn't want it any other way. Can you clone yourself 30 times and root for each NFL team so we have this level of opposing fan insight every week?

I said 34 -20 on the predict the score thread but like you expect it to feel like 20-19 because the Steelers O gets a ton of yards making big play after big play but not the plays that show up on the scoreboard. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they rack up 500 yards leaving a very sour taste of woulda coulda shoulda for your off-season. That said you got a fine team and any given Sunday is definitely possible. If the pats come out flat and turn the ball over like the start of the Hou game....boy it could get ugly quick. Best of luck and enjoy the game!

 

[mosi]

Thanks for the post. You will find that the people on these boards are open to intelligent football talk. This is something the Jets fans are incapable of doing!

 

[ViperGTS]

Are you talking about Ben? Huge difference relative to what? Not following what you're referencing here.

He's never been a running threat...not sure what you're referencing here, but Ben's running should have about as much an impact on the game as Brady's...

Oh I remember him taking off here and there. Don't act like he was always a statue in the pocket. He was never Rodgers or Wilson but when TB had 50 yards more rushing yard this season it's telling. It tells me he ain't running for a first down. And TB will easily run for a 1st or do what it takes. He almost scored a TD in the Cleveland game rushing to the 1.

You can't tell me he wouldn't break the pocket and run if it was there in past years?