Who will be BA at #24?

[danny88]

How about because he's too slow and not good enough?

People love this kid because of his likeability................. Better choices then him for us.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

How many snaps/game do you want to give him? Who is going to sit when he is in the game? Obviously assuming Seymour, Warren, Wilfork and Green are healthy and we are still playing a 3-4 base...

Why do you assume "Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, and Green are healthy?" Has Seymour ever missed games due to injury? Wilfork? Warren? Green? Those guys take a beating over 23 games, would Sey have been better taking off a couple of the games down the stretch to heal his elbow? The question isn't if Carriker is going to take reps away from the starting threesome, does he improve the backend of the roster? Wright is the guy who may lose reps. LeKevin Smith, Santonio Thomas, and Marquise Hill have the most to worry about. Should the Pats be lucky enough to land Carriker, LeKevin Smith gets bumped out of the second team as Wright gets bumped over to NT from LDE to clear a space for Carriker.

DL may not be the position of greatest need, but it can be improved.

 

[Metaphors]

Why do you assume "Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, and Green are healthy?" Has Seymour ever missed games due to injury? Wilfork? Warren? Green? Those guys take a beating over 23 games, would Sey have been better taking off a couple of the games down the stretch to heal his elbow?.

You assume they are healthy because it is possible that they may be. If they are, is there enough PT for Carriker? I don't think you spend a 1st round pick just on the chance that injuries may free up time for them to see the field. As for providing rest down the stretch, that is what Green and Wright are used for...and they do a fine job.

The question isn't if Carriker is going to take reps away from the starting threesome, does he improve the backend of the roster?

Are you serious? That is the question you ask of your 1st round picks? I don't even think I can respond to that.

Wright is the guy who may lose reps. LeKevin Smith, Santonio Thomas, and Marquise Hill have the most to worry about. Should the Pats be lucky enough to land Carriker, LeKevin Smith gets bumped out of the second team as Wright gets bumped over to NT from LDE to clear a space for Carriker.

If you add all the reps taken by Wright, Smith, Thomas and Hill (ignoring garbage time), do you really believe that is enough to develop a 1st round pick? And the situation doesn't change much in 2008 since Seymour, Warren, Wilfork and Green are all signed through then.

DL may not be the position of greatest need, but it can be improved.

Can't you say that about every position? In fact, I would say that DL, TE and K are the only positions that, if we do absolutely nothing between now and September, we are sitting pretty. If we draft those positions before the 6th/7th round (practice squad fodder), I will be confused.

I am definitely not saying that Carriker isn't a fine player and if Warren and/or Green weren't here or were heading into free agency, I would love to get him at any draft position (even trading up). I just think that a 1st rounder needs time on the field to develop, and lacking that will become discouraged.

 

[dryheat44]

What position do you expect a rookie to step into and start/take away a lot of playing time from a very good starting lineup?

 

[sebman2112]

Carriker would get playing time because:

1. He's that good
2. He's better than NE's current backup DE's
3. He'd be a first round pick.

Seymour, and Warren already come out for breathers during games, with Wright and Green coming in. Wright is hitting free agency next year, and Warren will be up for a new contract in a few years. I think as a rookie Carriker would make NE's 3-4 line sick, because he's a much more talented player than any of their current backups, who get some playing time. NE also uses the 4-3 front and Warren, Seymour, Wilfork, Carriker would be one sick 4-3 front.

This all being said NE doesn't have a chance at landing him at 24. Carriker is going anywhere from the late top ten, to 18th overall. Most don't expect him to even make it to 18th, and I can think of other teams that would jump at him if he got past that pick. Carriker is one of the top defensive players in this entire draft.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You assume they are healthy because it is possible that they may be. If they are, is there enough PT for Carriker? I don't think you spend a 1st round pick just on the chance that injuries may free up time for them to see the field. As for providing rest down the stretch, that is what Green and Wright are used for...and they do a fine job.

Green and Wright do such a fine job that they are marketable commodities should Carriker prove himself to be that much better.

Are you serious? That is the question you ask of your 1st round picks? I don't even think I can respond to that.

I ask that of every draft pick, especially at a focal position for the team such as DE.

If you add all the reps taken by Wright, Smith, Thomas and Hill (ignoring garbage time), do you really believe that is enough to develop a 1st round pick? And the situation doesn't change much in 2008 since Seymour, Warren, Wilfork and Green are all signed through then.

Sure, there are no reps to spare, which is why Green and Wright both appeared to take more reps. As Green and Wright have each gotten better, each has gotten more reps, BB will play a player who can deliver the goods - there appears to be two exeptions, O-line down the stretch, and QB, both of whom have higher continuity demands then the other positions. BB does work reserve OL in during the early part of the season to get them ready as injury replacements, but once he's settled on his O-line, he lets them jell. Carriker is a natural for Special Teams, the same way Wright is a wedge buster, wedge member, punt coverage, punt return...BB finds ways to use his players, only the reserve QBs stand around the entire game.

Can't you say that about every position?

Sure, and why would you not want to upgrade?

In fact, I would say that DL, TE and K are the only positions that, if we do absolutely nothing between now and September, we are sitting pretty.

Both DL and TE are deep and adequate, and K is young and dependable. But injuries do happen, the players at the back end of the unit can be upgraded, DL does have a slow learning curve (two years each for Warren and Wilfork). Players who seem to be as special as Carriker are rare as hens teeth (how many players in this league would you put at the same level as Seymour? I'd add Warren, but he just reached that level in his fourth year).

If we draft those positions before the 6th/7th round (practice squad fodder), I will be confused. If you aren't confused by BB's drafts in general you're quite extraordinary or quite naive.

I am definitely not saying that Carriker isn't a fine player and if Warren and/or Green weren't here or were heading into free agency, I would love to get him at any draft position (even trading up). I just think that a 1st rounder needs time on the field to develop, and lacking that will become discouraged.

I believe that BB will find a way to get a player involved. Carriker could play OLB as far as I'm concerned. I can see him taking reps at LOLB on short yardage and reps at RDE, playing on Special Teams, taking DT reps on passing down, maybe some NT reps for the experience. If BB got his hands on him, he'd find a way to keep him interested and involved to get him ready for fulltime play. I don't expect Carriker to last to 24. I'd be surprised if he fell far enough for a trade up to be considered. But if he came within range, I'd expect BB to seriously consider the move - players with his size and athleticism are too rare not to consider.

As for Green and Wright, I could see San Francisco being very interested in either player, not to mention Dallas was hurting for DL, Cleveburgh, NYJ, Miami, Washington, Chicago, Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Denver, KC, and Oakland. In a thin DT draft, some of those teams are going to be hunting after the draft. They are the reason I don't expect Carriker to fall, and why I wouldn't worry about who he might take reps away from if he did fall to the Pats. There is even the possibility the Pats could get a provisional second day pick for Hill or S. Thomas - even with his starting resume, who would have expected a 6th for Gorin?

 

[Metaphors]

What position do you expect a rookie to step into and start/take away a lot of playing time from a very good starting lineup?

Never said they needed to start. A 1st rounder should be expected to get significant playing time that allows them a chance to excel. If they do excel, they should be able to challenge for a starting position either this year or next. Quarterback being an obvious exception.

So to answer your question:

QB
There are people that say you always take a QB just like a growth stock. I don't necessarily agree but that has proven successful for some teams.

RB
There aren't any open spots that I can see, but only Maroney and Faulk are anything special. There are carries to be had here and RB is an injury-prone position.

WR
Again, seems like we have plenty. Quality is a question and only Welker and Jackson are long-term investments. So only the FO knows if WR is a good investment or if they expect any of the short-timers to be around for a while.

TE
No discussion needed here.

OT
I think we have good quality and depth here, but the point is debatable. I would say only draft an OT as an expected starter...or as a project. Really don't need any backups.

OG/C
The starters are set but Hochstein spot could be had. However, need some position flexibility to serve as a swing guard or center. Some interesting prospects in the draft in this space.

DL
No room at the inn.

LB
Obvious multiple needs here. Starting out in a rotation with the potential to start if needed (situational, injury or Bruschi decline in play). Definite starting opportunity in 2008.

CB
Again, pretty obvious needs. Gay and Samuel may be gone this year and likely will be gone in 2008, so plenty of opportunity for reps. 3rd corner should almost be treated like a starting position given the importance.

S
Harrison is old and Wilson will be a free agent in 2008, so opportunities abound here.

ST
Kicker is set. Lots of punting candidates but could still stand to draft some competition. Don't feel like discussing the other special teams opportunities that may be available.

So I would say that the key opportunities are at LB, CB and S (duh). Anyone drafted high at these positions will have opportunities this year with starting potential this year or next. RB and WR have potential as well but I don't know how the FO views the competition. I think the OL is pretty set unless the FO questions the potential of Kaczur/O'Callaghan. I would like an upgrade for Hochstein at G/C but that may just be me. DL and TE are stacked except for late day 2 picks (gotta use the comp picks somewhere). QB is unique and there are too many variables to guess what the FO may do here.

 

[Metaphors]

I believe that BB will find a way to get a player involved. Carriker could play OLB as far as I'm concerned. I can see him taking reps at LOLB on short yardage and reps at RDE, playing on Special Teams, taking DT reps on passing down, maybe some NT reps for the experience. If BB got his hands on him, he'd find a way to keep him interested and involved to get him ready for fulltime play. I don't expect Carriker to last to 24. I'd be surprised if he fell far enough for a trade up to be considered. But if he came within range, I'd expect BB to seriously consider the move - players with his size and athleticism are too rare not to consider.

As for Green and Wright, I could see San Francisco being very interested in either player, not to mention Dallas was hurting for DL, Cleveburgh, NYJ, Miami, Washington, Chicago, Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Denver, KC, and Oakland. In a thin DT draft, some of those teams are going to be hunting after the draft. They are the reason I don't expect Carriker to fall, and why I wouldn't worry about who he might take reps away from if he did fall to the Pats. There is even the possibility the Pats could get a provisional second day pick for Hill or S. Thomas - even with his starting resume, who would have expected a 6th for Gorin?

Can't argue with your points and if the FO views Carriker as an exceptional talent (exceptional meaning no players of comparable value when Pats are on the clock...and no expectation that a similar player will be available in next years draft) then I'll even agree with you. Same goes for Staley. My point is that you get less benefit being incredibly deep and skilled at a single position than addressing areas where you know there are opportunities for playing time and a chance to grow and excel.

 

[Metaphors]

If you aren't confused by BB's drafts in general you're quite extraordinary or quite naive.

Never been confused about the Pats draft under BB/SP. Quite a few picks I've disagreed with (Mankins, Watson come to mind) but that was due to players I liked better being passed over. Every 1st round pick (and probably every 1st day pick) has been in an area with obvious opportunities available.

Marquise Hill is about the only exception I can think of. He also had rare measureables at a key Pats position, but limited opportunities for growth. I can only assume he was Seymour free agent insurance. Might things have worked differently for him if the depth chart looked different? We'll never know. No excuses for him since he didn't take advantage of whatever opportunites he did have, but it would have to be discouraging for a young guy to see all that talent ahead of him.

Dave Thomas was another but I really think the Pats had no real expectation of keeping Graham.