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Where is The Cap (after the draftees are signed)?


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mgteich

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Where is the cap, after the draftees are signed?
 
Where?
North
Maybe northwest
 
Why is the cap
 
Miguel has it at $12.5MM right now. I'm guessing from some of his other reports that the coat of signing the rookies is going to be in the 2.5-3.5MM range as only the top 3 picks MIGHT count to the top 51 salaries.

Of course, as others have pointed out, there are a number of ways for the Pats to create some more cap space by extending some guys or changing salary to signing bonuses, etc. But to what end? Who is out there that would require a significant amount of salary cap room? (You can count me among those who believe that none of the very solid FA Safety class is going to come here to be our #4 safety option) Though I can see us adding more help on the edge, however. I don't see anyone out there that would come in at a big salary cap hit.
 
If we want there are a couple of other ways to create more space. If Niklaus can block and Jeremy Hill hasn't assaulted anybody. We can probably do without D. Allen and Gillislee. That
would save 7.2m There is also the possibility of a Brady extension.

Plenty of space to acquire a LB or S. Maybe, a guy like K. Vaccaro at safety. Not
sure what lb's are available. Doubt anybody gives us a pass rusher.
 
Why is the cap
s-l300.jpg
 
DISCLAIMER: I trust Miguel's number to be far more accurate, and am just using OTC for a rough number example. I'm not sure exactly what Miguel's current number ($12.482M) accounts for. I know that he breaks it own in detail on BSJ, but I don't have access.

On OTC, the number is roughly $14.022M, but they have yet to list Trent Brown ($1.90M). Adding Brown would knock Will Tye's $705k cap hit off the bottom of the 51, making the current cap space roughly $13.317.

After that, the lowest three cap hits of the top 51 are:

Cardona = $730k
Grissom = $720k
Bolden = $720k

Total is $2.170M.

Bentley's cap number for 2018 (drafted at #143) will be $556k. So Bentley, and everyone drafted after him or signed as a UDFA, is already well below the top 51 and won't count against the cap (except for any signing bonuses paid to UDFAs, I think).

The gross cap numbers for the Pats' top three picks are:

Wynn = $2.087M
Michel = $1.756M (corrected)
Dawson = $865k

Total is $4.708M. (corrected)

Subtract the total of cap numbers of the three guys who will be knocked ($2.17M) off the bottom, and you get $2.538M. (corrected)

$13.317M minus $2.538M = $10.779M ..... roughly. (corrected)

Since Miguel's cap number is $835k lower, cap space could be as low as $9.944M after the top three draftees are signed.

There may be some contract re-structurings in the works that would add some cap space, but that's roughly the amount of cap space that the Pats would probably like to have going into the regular season. IOW, re-structurings would likely be necessary to cover any free agent signings.

EDIT: As was graciously pointed out by @ctpatsfan77 , I'd originally used an incorrect number for Sony Michel's 2018 cap hit. Everything above should now be correct (see explanation in post below).
 
Last edited:
A simple rule of thumb I use is that the "new" cap hit works out roughly to the signing bonus prorations of the players drafted in the first four rounds.

The cap hits are:
23: $2,087,464
31: $1.755,959*
56: $864,406

Total: $4,707,829

Removing the rookie base salary of $480,000 x 3 = $1,440,000 leaves a "new" cap hit on the order of $3,267,829.

[*I think you accidentally used Wynn's year 2 number, @maineman209]
 
A simple rule of thumb I use is that the "new" cap hit works out roughly to the signing bonus prorations of the players drafted in the first four rounds.

The cap hits are:
23: $2,087,464
31: $1.755,959*
56: $864,406

Total: $4,707,829

Removing the rookie base salary of $480,000 x 3 = $1,440,000 leaves a "new" cap hit on the order of $3,267,829.

[*I think you accidentally used Wynn's year 2 number, @maineman209]

You're correct. I did accidentally transpose Wynn's 2019 number for Sony Michel's 2018 number. My bad.

Using $4.708 (rounding up), then subtracting $2.17M for the actual cap hits removed from the top 51, the net 2018 cap hit for the top three draftees should be about $2.538M.

The net remaining cap space, then should be somewhere between $10.779M (using the OTC starting point) and $9.994M (using Miguel's lower number).

I'll edit my earlier post to correct it.

Thanks!
 
Where is the cap, after the draftees are signed?
Why do you ask?
(I'm not trying to be a smarta$$). Just curious what your thought process is? How much we'll be able to roll-over, how much we have to maybe extend or give out a pay increases for this year or maybe pay some vets/players that may get cut? Sadly, $9-$10m isn't going to put a dent in all of the above.
 
(Rookie pool estimate)

 
Why do you ask?
(I'm not trying to be a smarta$$). Just curious what your thought process is? How much we'll be able to roll-over, how much we have to maybe extend or give out a pay increases for this year or maybe pay some vets/players that may get cut? Sadly, $9-$10m isn't going to put a dent in all of the above.

Extensions often lower current year cap hits through an accounting trick technically known as "kicking the can down the road" - basically converting current salary to signing bonus and adding a year or two so that the annual amortization is relatively low.

Dwayne Allen's cap hit could easily be knocked down to around $2.5M. Brady's cap hit might be reduced from $22M to maybe around $11M.

But the current salary needs to be high enough that the conversion to bonus is fairly large. So, since Trey Flowers is making only $1.907M for 2018, any extension will increase his 2018 cap hit.

IOW, there are still options available to pay for things.
 
Why do some posters put 5MM instead of 5M, what is the extra M for? This has been intriguing me for many years and never found the right thread to pop the question. Ken is the only MM'er so far in this thread but normally MM'ers are in the majority
 
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