What would be your opening offer to extend Welker?

[patsfan55]

Some other contracts to compare keeping in mind Welker will be 31 in May:

Larry Fitzgerald (28) 8/120 47G
Santonio Holmes (27) 5/50 with 24 guaranteed
Santana Moss (32) 3/15 with 6 g
Brad Smith (27) 4/15
Vincent Jackson 1/11.9 franchise
Steve Smith (26 Giants) 1/4 2G
Malcomb Floyd (29) 2/5
Lance Moore (28) 5/20 7G and would reach 22 with incentives

Although older than Jackson or Holmes I'd say he's more valuable and consistent. Teams however fall in love with outside size and speed so the money for a smaller slot guy might not be there. The intangibles, leadership and character that Welker brings is off the charts and the other two are risks at best. I think teams may also look at Welker and think about Branch and say he won't be the same player minus Tom Brady.

Throwing it all together I'd say it will be something like 4/28-32 with 10-14 guaranteed. That won't be the initial offer and hopefully Wes wants to stay like he's publicly stated.

I think you also have to factor in one of these teams with loads of cap room getting involved. KC, Tampa, etc. I wish they would just get it done now and not take the chance of losing him.

Wow, yeah seeing what Holmes got we might need to get closer to 10 per year. I think he will take a bit of a discount, so yeah 4 yrs in the low to mid 30s sounds about right. Clearly we MUST get this done

 

[supafly]

3 years 21million? 15 guaranteed.

3 year 18 million; 12 million guaranteed.


I could see it going up to 4 year 27 million range. He's an irreplaceable figure in the offense and a true example of work ethic. He is very trusted by Brady.

THIS....

5 yers 48 million with 22 million guaranteed

Definitely NOT this...

I would put Welker's value right around 6 1/2--7 million per yr. He is not asking for the world, is happy to be a part of the team, and ultimately is a slot guy...not an outside deep threat in the mold of Fitzgerald, or Calvin Johnson.

As we talked about all offseason, 6 million seemed very fair. I believe that 6 1/2 to 7 million is completely fair now. Somewhere in that range.

 

[supafly]

Wow, yeah seeing what Holmes got we might need to get closer to 10 per year. I think he will take a bit of a discount, so yeah 4 yrs in the low to mid 30s sounds about right. Clearly we MUST get this done

I always wonder why we don't sign guys earlier? And I'm not talking about guys like Mayo, who has played 3 of 5 yrs. I am talking about guys like Welker, who is an obvious priority, and will be a FA at the end of the yr.

I know that the answer will likely be that they prioritize and do not like distractions during the season, but why wait any longer? The price will only go up. It is an interesting approach, not that I am attempting to question the successful moves of a financial savvy organization, but I've always wondered why they wait until the last minute. Is it b/c they want to continue to protect themselves with guaranteed money in case of potential injury, which would be opposite of the current Colts/Manning situation?

Now the Colts are on the hook for the guaranteed money, although they really didn't have an option. I do believe that in Manning's case they certainly screwed up by not making him run through a physical and a long-term prognosis/2nd opinion. However, in this case that doesn't really pertain to Welker. It would seem as waiting to re-sign him would just end up costing them more money in the long run, and also increase their chances of possibly losing him to another team who may offer more money (b/c there will be some for sure).

Just a no-nonsense question for someone with more knowledge to possibly answer...thanks.

 

[ALP]

taking into account those contracts, i would say welker would take 6-7 mill, and paying him 8+mill would hurt real bad....


anyways, 6-7 mill will be doubling his current salary no?

 

[PatsFan24]

3 years 300 million

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think Bill struggles moreso with some positions when it comes to valuing things like intangibles (it works here) over measurables talent (it should work anywhere). In 2007 he seemed to have realized that he erred in letting Branch and Givens go because they wanted more than he believed their measurables warranted. Welker was the guy many then felt he overpaid to get in here at 5/$18M... But then he also brought Moss in on the prove it deal and that appeared to reinforce the belief that elite talent could be worth elite money here. They extended Moss thereafter for almost double what they'd even considered for Branch. That was kind of where he made his mistake, a similar one to Dillon (in whose case the extension wasn't totally necessary - just an effort at better cap management). I think he ultimately regretted both of those extensions although it took him a year plus in to realize they weren't going to remain nearly the impact guys he thought he'd extended...

I think Welker's injury hurt him, as did the way the team struggled in the post season the last two years both without and then with him. I think they have some serious concerns about long term durability with Wes (he's been durable beyond the ACL but his size and the way he plays in order to be an impact player has to give anyone pause). I think they were waiting to see if he would be able to get back to being the same player consistently. I think they now know he did so the question remains for how long will be continue to be...

I think that is all the more reason to extend him before this season ends. That would allow them to absorb some of the cap hit this season (and justifying that given what he's delivered on the $18M is a no brainer...). I think it will take $6M+ and some incentives to do a deal and I think Wes would want at least a 4 year extension (the shorter the deal the closer to $7M) if not another 5 year one to justify playing the way he consistently does for his team... Doing it before the end of this season would allow them some structural cap flexibility in spreading the cost over 5 if not 6 seasons...thereby minimizing potential dead cap in the last season or two if he wears out.

They have until mid December to move on that approach. Thereafter they are looking at the franchise or transition tag as short term leverage (that could as easily work against them long term) or rolling the dice into March that his desire to remain here will survive possibly feeling disrespected or not lead him to reassess his priorities when suitors come calling in FA.

Personally I'd get her done now because like his QB he's so clearly exceeded value on his last deal even considering he suffered an ACL injury and I think it would send a strong message to the locker room that guys who have delivered consistently are highly valued.

 

[JMarr]

Maybe I'm blind or just biased, but I don't see Welker ever wanting to play for another team (or with another QB), or thinking that he deserves a huge long-term contract based on his production.

Given the way he plays (and the way the Pats use him) the durability concerns are legit. I think three years is the max they are going to offer him. He's always been a prove-them-wrong type guy, so I think he might just shrug at a short-term offer, sign it, and see it as just another challenge.

That being said, I think Welker (like Brady) is one guy the Pats won't "insult" by using the tag.

 

[Jangles]

4 year 98 million with 60 guranteed

How will he feed his family?

But seriously

4 years 30 million. 20 guaranteed

 

[ctpatsfan77]

How will he feed his family?

But seriously

4 years 30 million. 20 guaranteed

FWIW, since I said "opening offer," I'd actually start at 4/~$25M, but I'd be willing to guarantee about $20M of that. I would have no problem giving him $10M as a signing bonus; he's already earned it, in my book.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Some other contracts to compare keeping in mind Welker will be 31 in May:

Larry Fitzgerald (28) 8/120 47G
Santonio Holmes (27) 5/50 with 24 guaranteed
Santana Moss (32) 3/15 with 6 g
Brad Smith (27) 4/15
Vincent Jackson 1/11.9 franchise
Steve Smith (26 Giants) 1/4 2G
Malcomb Floyd (29) 2/5
Lance Moore (28) 5/20 7G and would reach 22 with incentives

Although older than Jackson or Holmes I'd say he's more valuable and consistent. Teams however fall in love with outside size and speed so the money for a smaller slot guy might not be there. The intangibles, leadership and character that Welker brings is off the charts and the other two are risks at best. I think teams may also look at Welker and think about Branch and say he won't be the same player minus Tom Brady.

Throwing it all together I'd say it will be something like 4/28-32 with 10-14 guaranteed. That won't be the initial offer and hopefully Wes wants to stay like he's publicly stated.

I think you also have to factor in one of these teams with loads of cap room getting involved. KC, Tampa, etc. I wish they would just get it done now and not take the chance of losing him.

I'm thinking the Patriots make a surprisingly high opening offer to Welker.

I know logic says you don't pay for past performance, but in Welker's case it wouldn't surprise me if they are willing to do so

Welker's earned it to be sure - and I think it sends the right message to underpaid guys who work as hard and are as vital contributors as Welker.

He's never made a beef about his low pay - all he's done is gone out and caught a few hundred passes.

It's the right thing to do on many levels

 

[PittPatriot]

How about $24 million dollars along with all the booze and hookers he wants on road trips?

Wait…Wes plays for the Red Sox?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Wait…Wes plays for the Red Sox?

If he did, and were healthy, the Sox don't #%#!@% the bed like they did.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

He's never made a beef about his low pay - all he's done is gone out and caught a few hundred passes.

Welker is already #81 all-time in NFL receptions, and, counting his LOLphins receptions, has just moved ahead of Troy Brown and Stanley Morgan.

As far as the Pats go, he is now just 95 catches away from breaking Troy Brown's receptions record . . . in fewer than half the games.

 

[Jangles]

FWIW, since I said "opening offer," I'd actually start at 4/~$25M, but I'd be willing to guarantee about $20M of that. I would have no problem giving him $10M as a signing bonus; he's already earned it, in my book.

Of course

I guess I posted what I thought a good deal for both parties would be.

My opening offer would be in the area of 4/22 with 12 guaranteed.