What is A Bill Belichick Patriots team?

[BobDigital]

I had a bit of a lightning bolt hit me today. For a while I could not understand what BB was doing last year and the way he has coached this team with Brady at times. Recently something occurred to me and it all makes a lot more sense. While BB did at times build his team with Brady in mind, he just as often didn't. Only about half of Brady's time on the Patriots (maybe less) did they truly invest in putting guys around Brady. And now I think I know why. It wasn't so much that he saw what he had in Brady and let him carry the offense while investing heavily in defense. It is more to the point that BB simply doesn't build a team particularly with the QB in mind.

This is also why he has never invested a high draft pick into a QB or trading up into the top picks to get Brady an elite weapon. If one fell for value then fine. Otherwise he was happy to let the offense just do the best it could without investing high draft picks into it. None of this is exactly news, but it builds to the bigger picture I think many of us have missed. BB doesn't want to build his team around a QB. In fact he is stylistically and philosophically opposed to it I believe. Brady just happened to fall in his lap and was highly cost effective. It's a big reason why they went bargain basement hunting and signed the cheap Cam Newton at the end. He simply didn't care to invest in the the position unless he has a truly proven commodity. And even then he won't want to put too many pieces around him that will take away from other areas. It wasn't a calculated choice. I don't think he ever really believed or really cared if Brady was good enough to elevate often mediocre or below average talent to a high level. With a lesser QB he would have done the exact same thing.

I don't believe he has any intention to draft a QB in the first round at ANY point. It's a calculated decision. He knows it is long odds of getting a franchise QB and a good QB isn't typically good enough... He knows if you do get an elite QB they will often whine about weapons and either shoot their way out of town or not want to resign if you don't give them the support they want. As they should. Those guys aren't stupid an know their value. He also knows that even the typical elite QB (when built around) is usually only good for 1-2 rings. Particularly these days. Usually only on their rookie contracts.

He looks at all this and takes it all into account. He makes the calculated choice to punt on the entire position. Why sell all your picks and assets to buy a lottery ticket that has a poor chance of working out? Instead he elects to go hard in the other direction. His goal is to build the best defense and STs he can. Along the way he'll try to pick up a few decent offensive pieces, a serviceable QB and take a few measured gambles on talented players.

If I had to compare what BB is looking to do to anything... It would be something like what the Ravens have done for the past 20 years. And what he tried to do in Cleveland but didn't fully succeed at. Build an elite D and then try to figure the offense out. The only difference between what BB will do is he won't invest in or pay for a guy like Flacco long term. We have all been talking about the Pats getting or investing in a franchise QB all year, and I think we need to start to come to the realization that isn't going to happen. BB showed no urgency or willingness to do so last year when the need was clear and desperate. He won't this year either.

His plan is to become a 2nd Ravens team. He'll build a D that in consistently top 10 year in year out. Go cheap on the QB spot and wait for a guy who gets hot or over performs like Dilfer or Flacco did for team. Or the way Foles did for the Eagles. If you keep a good and disciplined defense together long enough eventually a QB will figure it out or get hot/lucky for a stretch and hopefully put you over the top. It is in some ways a more reliable system them trying to get a HOF level QB (of which maybe 1 is drafted every 3-4 years). And it also safe guards you from that one key piece shooting his way out of town like Wilson/Watson are trying to do. The down side is even if you are good on defense if you're staky at QB you'll have more ups and down. A franchise tends to give you more consistent year in year out results than a defense.

 

[oldrover]

And with Brady he also got two EXTREMELY VALUABLE things you rarely get from franchise QBs: someone who sells winning and the system both in word and deed, and someone who'll take less money to benefit the team.

 

[Tony2046]

I see it slightly different. I think he does value the QB position and wanted a smooth transition plan from Brady, e.g Jimmy G, but Brady kept playing and is still playing at a high level. So it seems more like he misjudged Brady's longevity than he didn't value the position.

I do agree that he favors a dominant Defense over a dominant offense but I also think he made personnel decisions based on knowing that he had Brady. Although I'd add that he did try to bolster the offense. The last two first round picks were used for the offense.

I also agree that he won't panic during the draft but he may slightly change his philosophy before hand. But what he'll do during the draft is anybody's guess.

 

[long distance]

BB team is one that offers a way to win every game every year. Thats why he wants/keeps GM. Most GMs would go QB hunting after Brady left, sell the vets and tank for whoever, like mediots are suggesting for 2nd straight season.

In a league that punishes success for the sake of parity (Salary Cap, Draft order etc.) he tries to find a way towards sustainable success. Defence is more sustainable than offence, money wise, strategy wise, also psychologically etc. Disciplined complementary football (ST) leverages loss of talent.

But saying he doesn't invest in QB or offence is a stretch. First of all he always invested significantly in OL - most sustainable part of offence. He always invested significantly in most economic receiving positions (slot & TE). He is always on the look for X WR bargain and just recently invested first round pick and was reportedly finalist for Diggs meaning he was willing to pay around 14M apy (and over 10 for Humphries), not to mention 2nd rd for Sanu etc etc. Just bc things didn't work out lately doesn't mean he wasn't trying.

As for QB, again, just bc he doesn't panic and join the league wide QB hysteria doesn't mean QB is not important to him. It is very important, but within keeping sustainability. It is the first time in 20 years that he doesn't have a QB so it remains to be seen how he goes about it. He reportedly offered 2nd rounder for Stafford, and asked about every QB in the league. But the only hill he will die on is the one on Foxboro practice field

 

[Jangles]

A bunch of jags dragged to a super bowl by Tom Brady

sums up a Bill Belichick team

 

[Deus Irae]

Belichick has modified "his" Patriots team. Realistically, there have been at least 4 different "Bill Belichick Patriots" teams. You could probably break down the "eras" a bit more if you really wanted.

Early 2000s - Heavy run w/timely passing offense, reliance on defense stopping the run and then the pass,
Later 2000s - Full out aerial assault, defense reliant on timely big plays
Early - Later 2010s - Heavy passing offense, defense based upon stopping the pass while limiting the run
End 2010s - Transition to more run based offense, defense continuing to be based upon stopping the pass while limiting the run

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I remember wondering the same thing a few weeks ago.

"How much does Bill value the QB position, itself". Not so much this QB or that QB. Does he want spectacular, greatness when he looks at a QB? Or does he just want competency, steadiness & durability?

It's an interesting question I've thought of a few times. I think Bill definitely has guys like Wilson, Rodgers on a separate tiers bc they've performed but in terms of college QB's we're in uncharted waters without Brady.

We'll find out soon bc we have a decent amount of money and there will be a few "good/decent" QB's available in FA ... And ... We have #15 overall. No shot at Lawrence or QB2 but if QB3 & 4 fall to 5-8 we absolutely, 100%, no debate about it. Have enough to move up. Between 15, 2021 2nd, 2022 1st & 2nd. We have enough to move up to 5 if Bill wants to.

We have options, including punting the QB issue into 2022 by trading out.

 

[doesntmatter1]

BB doesn't have a plan, but he doesn't panic. St and defense is his bread and butter. I don't think he likes the idea of being married to questionable prospects in the 1st and that is why we probably won't draft a qb that early unless they are super safe like Luck.

 

[Gumby]

OP: I don't believe he has any intention to draft a QB in the first round at ANY point. It's a calculated decision.

There is some merit, I think, to much of what BobD said. But, to say he won’t use a #1 on a ab at any point, I think is silly.

For 20 years he had no need to use a 1. Last years draft was effectively a 2 with no good value, guys he didn’t like left and no cap room. To say he never would based on a history where 1/5 of his 1st were stolen and he had other pressing priorities is holding situation-history to create a bias on his part (false logic)

if you look at BB track history in positions of big need, he usually throws at least 3 of the 4 solutions at it and sees what sticks;
1. FAs. (Both hi $ Gilmore/revis & bargain basements)
2. Trade (usually for underappreciated assets: vrabel welker etc)
3. Draft
4. UDFAs

well, the last category seems pretty unlikely for QB, Kurt Warner doesn’t happen even once a decade. But I expect him to use 2 of other 3 categories this offseason and based on the cap status of most teams a lot of the likely trade types may be FA. But waiting for all those cuts to be available is bad for a team that needs as much integration time (complex O) as possible. That means draft is more important and a first rounder more likely.

I wouldn’t bet money on BB drafting qb in rd 1, but I wouldn’t cavalierly exclude it either.

 

[BobDigital]

There is some merit, I think, to much of what BobD said. But, to say he won’t use a #1 on a ab at any point, I think is silly.

For 20 years he had no need to use a 1. Last years draft was effectively a 2 with no good value, guys he didn’t like left and no cap room. To say he never would based on a history where 1/5 of his 1st were stolen and he had other pressing priorities is holding situation-history to create a bias on his part (false logic)

if you look at BB track history in positions of big need, he usually throws at least 3 of the 4 solutions at it and sees what sticks;
1. FAs. (Both hi $ Gilmore/revis & bargain basements)
2. Trade (usually for underappreciated assets: vrabel welker etc)
3. Draft
4. UDFAs

well, the last category seems pretty unlikely for QB, Kurt Warner doesn’t happen even once a decade. But I expect him to use 2 of other 3 categories this offseason and based on the cap status of most teams a lot of the likely trade types may be FA. But waiting for all those cuts to be available is bad for a team that needs as much integration time (complex O) as possible. That means draft is more important and a first rounder more likely.
I wouldn’t bet money on BB drafting qb in rd 1, but I wouldn’t cavalierly exclude it either.

When I said that is was just a little tongue and cheek, not to say i didn't mean it. If BB had the #1 pick overall would he draft a prospect like Luck or Peyton Manning? Yes. If a prospect would Aaron Rodgers fell to him at 24 would he draft him? Yes. But those are just about the only ways I see him drafting a QB in the first round. I don't think we'll even see him with the #1 pick overall and so option 1 is likely out. As far as a guy like Rodgers falling, that was a totally fluke. QBs don't really fall that far anymore no matter what.

Mahomes was seen as a rather risky prospect with high upside and he went 10th. Manziel who was a much shakier prospect only fell to 22. Right now the NFL simply isn't letting QBs 'fall for value'. Particularly in round 1. If BB has to reach to pick a QB he won't. That is why I don't see him picking a QB in round 1.

 

[scott99]

I think its pretty simple, as far as the optimal Belichick type of team.

1) mentally tough
2) situationally aware

 

[RobertWeathers]

I had a bit of a lightning bolt hit me today. For a while I could not understand what BB was doing last year and the way he has coached this team with Brady at times. Recently something occurred to me and it all makes a lot more sense. While BB did at times build his team with Brady in mind, he just as often didn't. Only about half of Brady's time on the Patriots (maybe less) did they truly invest in putting guys around Brady. And now I think I know why. It wasn't so much that he saw what he had in Brady and let him carry the offense while investing heavily in defense. It is more to the point that BB simply doesn't build a team particularly with the QB in mind.

This is also why he has never invested a high draft pick into a QB or trading up into the top picks to get Brady an elite weapon. If one fell for value then fine. Otherwise he was happy to let the offense just do the best it could without investing high draft picks into it. None of this is exactly news, but it builds to the bigger picture I think many of us have missed. BB doesn't want to build his team around a QB. In fact he is stylistically and philosophically opposed to it I believe. Brady just happened to fall in his lap and was highly cost effective. It's a big reason why they went bargain basement hunting and signed the cheap Cam Newton at the end. He simply didn't care to invest in the the position unless he has a truly proven commodity. And even then he won't want to put too many pieces around him that will take away from other areas. It wasn't a calculated choice. I don't think he ever really believed or really cared if Brady was good enough to elevate often mediocre or below average talent to a high level. With a lesser QB he would have done the exact same thing.

I don't believe he has any intention to draft a QB in the first round at ANY point. It's a calculated decision. He knows it is long odds of getting a franchise QB and a good QB isn't typically good enough... He knows if you do get an elite QB they will often whine about weapons and either shoot their way out of town or not want to resign if you don't give them the support they want. As they should. Those guys aren't stupid an know their value. He also knows that even the typical elite QB (when built around) is usually only good for 1-2 rings. Particularly these days. Usually only on their rookie contracts.

He looks at all this and takes it all into account. He makes the calculated choice to punt on the entire position. Why sell all your picks and assets to buy a lottery ticket that has a poor chance of working out? Instead he elects to go hard in the other direction. His goal is to build the best defense and STs he can. Along the way he'll try to pick up a few decent offensive pieces, a serviceable QB and take a few measured gambles on talented players.

If I had to compare what BB is looking to do to anything... It would be something like what the Ravens have done for the past 20 years. And what he tried to do in Cleveland but didn't fully succeed at. Build an elite D and then try to figure the offense out. The only difference between what BB will do is he won't invest in or pay for a guy like Flacco long term. We have all been talking about the Pats getting or investing in a franchise QB all year, and I think we need to start to come to the realization that isn't going to happen. BB showed no urgency or willingness to do so last year when the need was clear and desperate. He won't this year either.

His plan is to become a 2nd Ravens team. He'll build a D that in consistently top 10 year in year out. Go cheap on the QB spot and wait for a guy who gets hot or over performs like Dilfer or Flacco did for team. Or the way Foles did for the Eagles. If you keep a good and disciplined defense together long enough eventually a QB will figure it out or get hot/lucky for a stretch and hopefully put you over the top. It is in some ways a more reliable system them trying to get a HOF level QB (of which maybe 1 is drafted every 3-4 years). And it also safe guards you from that one key piece shooting his way out of town like Wilson/Watson are trying to do. The down side is even if you are good on defense if you're staky at QB you'll have more ups and down. A franchise tends to give you more consistent year in year out results than a defense.

Good post. Spot on.

Bill believes in building a complete team not building around a player.

Ozzie Newsome is a disciple of Bill's philosophy.

If Bill can't find the QB he wants he'll continue to build around the position.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

Personally, I've always felt Belichick went against the grain. For example, I believe in the year 2002-2003 only 2 teams ran a 3-4 defense, New England and Pittsburgh. By 2006 it was a 16/16 split in the league. That's when Belichick started transforming into almost a 4-3 but more a sub nickle defense, also while the league saw a big uptick in passing offense. Fast forward to about 2016, 2017, 2018. Leagues defenses have gotten smaller and faster to defend the passing game, then Bill transitioned into more of a run first, more physical offensive approach.

 

[Hyped]

Not sure there is much value in building a solid defense nor allocating most of the cap money on that side of the ball. It is still a passing league and it is more important than ever to keep scoring points. Yeah, the Chiefs had a fluky bad performance in the SB, but 9 out of 10 times that offense scores 25+ even with only two major passing targets.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

I had a bit of a lightning bolt hit me today. For a while I could not understand what BB was doing last year and the way he has coached this team with Brady at times. Recently something occurred to me and it all makes a lot more sense. While BB did at times build his team with Brady in mind, he just as often didn't. Only about half of Brady's time on the Patriots (maybe less) did they truly invest in putting guys around Brady. And now I think I know why. It wasn't so much that he saw what he had in Brady and let him carry the offense while investing heavily in defense. It is more to the point that BB simply doesn't build a team particularly with the QB in mind.

This is also why he has never invested a high draft pick into a QB or trading up into the top picks to get Brady an elite weapon. If one fell for value then fine. Otherwise he was happy to let the offense just do the best it could without investing high draft picks into it. None of this is exactly news, but it builds to the bigger picture I think many of us have missed. BB doesn't want to build his team around a QB. In fact he is stylistically and philosophically opposed to it I believe. Brady just happened to fall in his lap and was highly cost effective. It's a big reason why they went bargain basement hunting and signed the cheap Cam Newton at the end. He simply didn't care to invest in the the position unless he has a truly proven commodity. And even then he won't want to put too many pieces around him that will take away from other areas. It wasn't a calculated choice. I don't think he ever really believed or really cared if Brady was good enough to elevate often mediocre or below average talent to a high level. With a lesser QB he would have done the exact same thing.

I don't believe he has any intention to draft a QB in the first round at ANY point. It's a calculated decision. He knows it is long odds of getting a franchise QB and a good QB isn't typically good enough... He knows if you do get an elite QB they will often whine about weapons and either shoot their way out of town or not want to resign if you don't give them the support they want. As they should. Those guys aren't stupid an know their value. He also knows that even the typical elite QB (when built around) is usually only good for 1-2 rings. Particularly these days. Usually only on their rookie contracts.

He looks at all this and takes it all into account. He makes the calculated choice to punt on the entire position. Why sell all your picks and assets to buy a lottery ticket that has a poor chance of working out? Instead he elects to go hard in the other direction. His goal is to build the best defense and STs he can. Along the way he'll try to pick up a few decent offensive pieces, a serviceable QB and take a few measured gambles on talented players.

If I had to compare what BB is looking to do to anything... It would be something like what the Ravens have done for the past 20 years. And what he tried to do in Cleveland but didn't fully succeed at. Build an elite D and then try to figure the offense out. The only difference between what BB will do is he won't invest in or pay for a guy like Flacco long term. We have all been talking about the Pats getting or investing in a franchise QB all year, and I think we need to start to come to the realization that isn't going to happen. BB showed no urgency or willingness to do so last year when the need was clear and desperate. He won't this year either.

His plan is to become a 2nd Ravens team. He'll build a D that in consistently top 10 year in year out. Go cheap on the QB spot and wait for a guy who gets hot or over performs like Dilfer or Flacco did for team. Or the way Foles did for the Eagles. If you keep a good and disciplined defense together long enough eventually a QB will figure it out or get hot/lucky for a stretch and hopefully put you over the top. It is in some ways a more reliable system them trying to get a HOF level QB (of which maybe 1 is drafted every 3-4 years). And it also safe guards you from that one key piece shooting his way out of town like Wilson/Watson are trying to do. The down side is even if you are good on defense if you're staky at QB you'll have more ups and down. A franchise tends to give you more consistent year in year out results than a defense.

Agreed

 

[stinkypete]

I agree to a point, but the suggestion that Baltimore has chosen to ignore or go cheap on the QB position is incorrect.

Baltimore sent us a 2004 first to take Kyle Boller in 2003 (thanks for gifting us big Vince, you morons!).
Baltimore took Joe Flacco with the 18th pick in 2018. Four years later they made him the richest QB in history (at the time).
Baltimore gave up a 2018 and 2019 seconds to draft Lamar Jackson.

Otherwise, I agree with the assertion that Belichick is too smart to sell the farm for an unknown. I don't believe that he would never select a QB in the first round, but he's not going to mortgage the future for one of these all talent, no leadership type guys that go bust year in and year out. Mac Jones at 15, hell yeah, give up a second rounder to buy a Trey Lance lottery ticket, hell no.

There are very few true franchise QBs, and having one does not guarantee a Super Bowl win. Recent history shows that even an elite QB needs to be surrounded by an elite team to win, and it is more likely for a team to with with an average QB surrounded by elite talent than vice versa. Belichick understands that he needs a good dose of luck to ever replace the GOAT. You don't sell out for a lottery ticket.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

very interesting. Seems like the philosophy is to find value wherever it is -- defense, ST, and offense. He's a value shopper with his coupons looking for good deals, because the key to winning is who is best at the salary cap. I suspect he sees the super-expensive franchise QB approach is ultimately not worth it.

 

[Deus Irae]

After Vardell, Bill Belichick would NEVER take a RB in the first round!
Bill Belichick would NEVER take a WR in the first round!