We're on to Washington

[mayoclinic]

The only name that I would not deem expendable at this point is Mike Onwenu.

I know the Patriots are moving toward another scheme.

But they have drafted Cole Strange, Chasen Hines, Atonio Mafi, Sidy Sow, Jake Andrews, Layden Robinson, Caeden Wallace, Jared Wilson and a bunch of FAs for the IOL, and only Wilson has a chance of working out for us. So many picks, so many signings, and no one can unseat Onwenu.

So why do we think we can find a replacement?

Do not mention Mike Onwenu's age, he is only 28 years old. 7 years younger than Moses.

Do not mention Onwenu's output, he has been remarkably durable, an absolute stalwart.

Do not mention Onwenu's contract, because at $18m a year, that is normal now in the NFL for a guard with Onwenu's production. If you want someone as good as Onwenu, you pay $18m. Going rate.

David Edwards is the same age as Onwenu and just signed a new contract that runs until 2029. He got half of the contract up front as a signing bonus. He will cost over $20m a year.

Is Edwards so much better than Onwenu?

I totally understand the idea of saving $20m a year by bringing in a much cheaper replacement in the draft, but is it worth risking Drake Maye's health if you're not assured of doing it?

The problem here is that we drafted 7 guys for the guard position and we struck out on each and every one. I am not saying we should give up on drafting guards because of our abysmal record, but you certainly should not jettison a stalwart at the position UNTIL you absolutely know you have his replacement, especially with often injured Vera-Tucker at the other guard position.

You make several very good points.

Mike Onwenu's 2026 cap hit is $25M, the second highest on the team. Your RG should never be the 2nd highest cap hit on your team.

That said, you are 100% correct that $18-20M/AAV is now a mid range contract in the NFL.

Mike Onwenu is an above-average RG, in a contract year, slightly overpaid, and out of step with the athletic profile and scheme the Pats are moving towards.

I think the team would welcome an opportunity to get younger, faster, cheaper.

But you don't cut off your nose to spite your face, and moving on from Mike Onwenu probably weakens your team for 2026. The only 2026 replacement option I see would be signing 34 year old Joel Bitonio, to use some of the cap savings elsewhere (e.g. AJ Brown). Bitonio is far more athletic, but he us 34. I am not advocating for this.

Unlike many, I did not want the Pats to make a run at David Edwards. He is also an above-average IOL, but he also does not fit the highly athletic profile the Pats seem to be moving towards. Connor McGovern did, but the Bills re-signed him. AVT was by far the best fit, and the Pats targeted. He only hit the market because of his injury history.

Extending Onwenu beyond 2026 could be an option. If the Pats feel that is their best option, doesn't overly hinder the rest of the line in terms of scheme, and he can be extended in the $18-20M AAV range, that would make sense. There are other needs to address. Personally, I doubt that happens. But I 100% agree that we shouldn't actively jettison Onwenu without a clear replacement plan.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The only counterpoint is we did get the guy in Strange but he was hurt too much of the time. Healthy he was good, and was the only OG pick above 4th round. The others were low rounders that aren't even in the league now. Next year we should shoot for a guard on day 2. As you say, Onwenu is safe in 2026 but I think it will be a financial goal to draft a replacement next year for 2027 if possible. I like his size and durability though.

J Amdrews is starting in the NFL.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

But he was a tackle (Wallace).

 

[40yrpatsfan]

J Amdrews is starting in the NFL.

He's a center.

 

[long distance]

Great post.

The guys that delayed in 2026 draft have to join the draft eventually. There was a dip in 2026, there has to be a spike in 2027 or 2028? The guys are coming out eventually, it is only a delay.

Maybe - but there will be other dynamics at play and the structure of Draft classes will change.
It is still uncharted territory so it will be interesting how it will affect the Draft and selection processes.

I dont expect too many changes for the upper class but the constant mass return of Day 3 juniors back to college will affect the middle class of the younger players bc there will be less spots to start, to get experience early and showcase their game. NFL teams will have more data on seniors and less on younger players who will have more incentive to return and so on. So i expect some adjustments in scouting and team building to happen.

Also some Day 3/UDFA returning guys will lose their spots on college rosters (further damaging their NFL aspirations) or turn their interest elsewhere (happy with NIL earnings and less willing to enter uncertainty of NFL for lower picks) so NFL might be losing prospects in general however low key.

before many Day 3 juniors entered the Draft too early on promises of some teams they will def draft them if they are there in round X (and many times then they dont). Now at least in general players should be in better position to pave their best way to the NFL. Late bloomers will def benefit and so should the NFL after all..

 

[rabidfireweasel]

something to keep in mind regarding Day 3 draft capital and age of the middle class prospects going foreward

Not to sound full Ferris B., but a family friend of ours is at college in a big 10 school who had a poor record in 2025. Her fiancé is an offensive lineman on the team who started 4 games at G, He has two years of eligibility. He is transferring to a decent but not elite Big 12 team. I don’t see a scenario where he gets drafted next year because r is even an UDFA. He is getting 300K in NIL money for 2026. So yeah, there is no incentive to be a 6th, 8th or UDFA.

 

[mayoclinic]

To me, this is the really fun part of climbing the mountain: no one has the faintest clue how to really evaluate talent this far out, if at all.

Here's Dane Brugler's 2026 pre-season top 50, published last August, just before the 2025 CFB season:

NFL Draft 2026 rankings: Arch Manning, Caleb Downs in top 5 of Dane Brugler’s initial board

Quarterbacks and offensive tackles could dominate the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft, but a defensive tackle holds the No. 1 spot.

www.nytimes.com

Lots of day 3 guys on that list. No Arvell Reese (5), Mansoor Delane (6), Ty Simpson (13), Vega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Akheem Mesidor (22), Malachi Lawrence (23), KC Concepcion (24), Dillon Thieneman (25), Keylan Rutledge (26), Chris Johnson (27), Omar Cooper (30) or Jadarian Price (32).

That's 44% (14/32) 1st round picks that were not even in Brugler's top 50. Neither were De'Zhaun Stribling (33), Chase Bisontis (34), Kayden McDonald (36), Colton Hood (37), Treydan Stukes (38), Denzel Boston (39), Cashius Howell (41), Jacob Rodriguez (43), Derrick Moore (44), Josiah Trotter (46), Germie Bernard (47), Lee Hunter (49) or D'Angelo Ponds (50).

So just before the CFB season started - 4 months from now for the 2026 season - Brugler's top 50 correctly predicted only 23 out of the top 50 actual picks, and only 3 of the remaining 14 2nd round picks.

Here's Brugler's next top 50, from November 11, 3+ months into the CFB season:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Which prospects earned a spot on latest top-50 board?

For all its faults, the 2026 quarterback class has generated some positive momentum — just not as much as Ohio State's Arvell Reese.

www.nytimes.com

No Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Peter Woods or Omar Cooper. That's 25% of the eventual 1st round that weren't even in Brugler's top 50.

And the thing is, Brugler's good. Very good. He and Daniel Jeremiah are probably the 2 best. But they still are way off.

Obviously, you can't predict the emergence of an Arvell Reese or Jacob Rodriguez. You can't predict injuries. You can't predict who will go back to school. But there were also some terrible evaluations - LT Overton never should have been on anyone's top 50 much less 23 oveeall, Kaleb Tiernan never belonged on a top 40 list. That's like drafting Ron Brace at 40, or Jordan Richards at 64. Incomprehensible.

So looking forward to the 2026 CFB season 2027 draft, who is going to emerge out of nowhere, who is vastly over-rated, who are the unmistakable studs? How many day 3 binkies will we identify who turn into day 1 and 2 picks?

Enjoy the climb.

Dane Brugler reviews his initial top-50 from last August:

Revisiting initial 2026 NFL Draft board: Which of Dane Brugler’s top 50 rankings held up?

With the 2026 NFL Draft behind us, our expert takes a look back at his initial board from August.

www.nytimes.com

This year's initial list will be out in about 10 weeks. It will be fascinating to see who is on it. Hopefully 40 QBs.

 

[manxman2601]

Dane Brugler reviews his initial top-50 from last August:

Revisiting initial 2026 NFL Draft board: Which of Dane Brugler’s top 50 rankings held up?

With the 2026 NFL Draft behind us, our expert takes a look back at his initial board from August.

www.nytimes.com

This year's initial list will be out in about 10 weeks. It will be fascinating to see who is on it. Hopefully 40 QBs.

I noticed this morning that on the board I follow, CJ Bailey of NC State has jumped into the late first which means 8 QBs in the first round. I like.

A prize if you can guess the 8 without cheating.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. Arch Manning
2. Dante Moore
3. CJ Carr
4. Drew Mestemaker
5. Drake Lindsey
6. Dorian Mensah
7. LaNorris Sellars
8. CJ Bailey (freebie from you)

 

[Clonamery]

I noticed this morning that on the board I follow, CJ Bailey of NC State has jumped into the late first which means 8 QBs in the first round. I like.

A prize if you can guess the 8 without cheating.

my boy, Drake Part II the Slow Motion version. Foster had him at 75.
Moore
Manning
Mensah
Carr from ND
of course, Bailey
Mestemaker the Undertaker

not counting Sorsby. fudgsicles...I don't think it's Maiavai.
Or Hoover or Leavitt. Definitely not Imabadqb from UCLA.
I'm missing 2 or 3 guys but I'll go with Sellers as my 8th
because I can't think of anyone.

 

[manxman2601]

You had 7. You nailed it apart from Sayin.

 

[mayoclinic]

How could I have forgotten Sayin?

Total brain fart. He should have been #3 on list.

 

[manxman2601]

1. Arch Manning
2. Dante Moore
3. CJ Carr
4. Drew Mestemaker
5. Drake Lindsey
6. Dorian Mensah
7. LaNorris Sellars
8. CJ Bailey (freebie from you)

Also missed on Sayin instead of Lindsey who is at 39.

The list

1. Manning
2. Moore
9. Sayin (why do I keep wanting to put an apostrohe after the 'n'?)
13. Carr
15. Mestermaker
16. Sellers
22. Mensah
28. Bailey

Lindsey, Maiava, Leavitt and Chambliss have top 50 grades. Hopefully they all don't do a Klubnick, Nuss, Allar season.

12 QBs with a top 50 grade. Please let them all be good!

 

[mayoclinic]

The "top 50" could be more like a top 40 plus 10 QBs. Great chance to pick up 2 really good players.

I feel like we're definitely on to Washington. Chris Cole is my new heartthrob, with Will Echoles close behind. Locked in on a defense-focused draft. I can't wait till a whole new set of prospects emerge starting in August.

 

[manxman2601]

The "top 50" could be more like a top 40 plus 10 QBs. Great chance to pick up 2 really good players.

I feel like we're definitely on to Washington. Chris Cole is my new heartthrob, with Will Echoles close behind. Locked in on a defense-focused draft. I can't wait till a whole new set of prospects emerge starting in August.

I will reiterate my one concern. There are A LOT of underclassmen. It might not be quite so exciting come mid Jan. And then there's the AJ Brown thing. But it sure is exciting now.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't NOT want to give up a 2027 1st or 2nd for anyone right now.

We should expect about average underclassmen yield. But we should also expect a post-season draft surge. Jacob Rodriguez, Gabe Jacas, De'Zhaun Stribling, Keylan Rutledge and Max Iheanachor were not consensus day 1 or 2 picks on January 1.

Here's Sam Teets' top 300 from January 1, 2026:

2026 NFL Draft Scouting: New Year’s Day Top 300 Big Board

Let's kick off the New Year with an updated big board that surely won't upset anyone

sportstalk.substack.com

268. Sam Roush
239. Trey Moore
237. Kyle Louis
[213. Niki Prongos]
165. Gabe Jacas
147. Logan Jones
[137. Kelley Jones]
[136. Kenyatta Jackson]
131. Jacob Rodriguez
[114. Carter Smith]
113. Keylan Rutledge (went 26)
[104. Damon Eilson]
[100. Jacarrius Peak]
97. Malachi Lawrence (went 23)
[93. Kade Pieper]
91. Isaiah World (UDFA)
[88. Austin Siereveld]
[86. Yonghzae Pierre]
[85. Ahmad Moten]
82. Zion Young
81. Derrick Moore
73. Monroe Freeling (went 19)
[65. Caden Green]
64. Chase Bisontis
60. Akheem Mesidor (went 22)
55. Omar Cooper (went 29)
52. Max Iheanachor (went 21)
[50. PJ Williams]

So a lot of guys didn't declare, but a lot of guys also rose.

I think this is pretty normal. About 2/3 of the good draft-eligible underclassmen will declare, and there will be at least 20 "day 3" guys on January 1 who will become some of the hottest names in the draft after the playoffs, all-star games, and Combine. Many will be our binkies, and we will helplessly watch as they rise, some out of reach entirely.