Welker "could" get traded to us instead?

[stcjones]

The compensation right now is a second rounder. If they trade, it will most likely be more than a second rounder. The Pats will probably have to add a second day pick (hopefully a conditional 2008) to that second round pick in a trade.

If they work out a trade for less than a second round pick, then the Dolphins lose for no reason. If the Pats offer Welker a deal, the Dolphins can do nothing and get a second rounder for him. Why would they make a trade for less that only helps out the Pats and gives them a lesser draft pick.

The only reason we are talking trade is to avoid cap issues with a deal to make it unattractive for the Dolphins to match. That means we have to give up more to get a deal done, not less.

I wouldn't give up anything more than what is already on the table for this guy. He isn't good enough to start sweetening the pot....especially after having only ONE good year to base things on........BB will do what's right

 

[tatepatsfan]

Dolphins need D-line help. Send Marquise Hill and a 4th rounder.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Then why would the Dolphins make a trade now? They have a month and a half left of the the RFA period. Why take a third now? Why not call the Patriots bluff?

Sometimes a bluff isn't a bluff. If they don't think they're going to get a #2 they may be happy to take a for sure something less.

Stop looking at it as a Patriot fan. Look at it objectively.

I'm looking at it logically. Given that the Patriots could easily offer a contract the Dolphins wouldn't match at the cost of a #2 then the only thing that makes sense is that the Patriots want to offer something but less than a #2.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm not sure Wes Welker is universally regarded as their best WR.

I guess we'll see . . . but I will be absolutely stunned if we trade more than a #2 for Wes Welker. If we trade less or exactly a #2 I won't be surprised. More ? It 'ain't happening.

I would be more shocked if the Dolphins take less than a #2. They are guaranteed at least a # 2 for Welker if someone signs him and the Pats have shown their hand. The Dolphins holds the cards in this situation. Their worst case scenario is either they have a pretty young receiver in Welker for another year or a second rounder. If Welker is clearly worth a third round pick, why would the Dolphins give him up when they would probably have to use a third round pick to replace him? That would be like us trading Branch only to draft a Branch-like player with the #24 pick.

The Dolphins just cut McMichaels. They need receivers. I think they rather have Welker than a third round pick.

 

[Seymour93]

Dolphins need D-line help. Send Marquise Hill and a 4th rounder.

But they need D-line help.

 

[dryheat44]

But logic dictates it's the Patriots that are balking because we could EASILY make a contract the Dolphins wouldn't want to touch.

That's the whole idea, ain't it? Quick theoretical contract - Pats offer Welker a 6 year contract:

8 million SB
Year one: 500,000
Year two: 500,000
Year three: 750,000
Year four: 1 million
Year five: 8 million
Year six: 14 million

Provision that the entire contract is guaranteed of Welker plays four games or more in any season in Dade County.

We're writing the blasted offer. We should damn well be able to write a reasonable contract the Dolphins won't touch. We're left with four years for under 11 million.

Edit: I just realized that you're not saying what I thought you were saying. Mea culpa. You think a deal would already be signed if we wanted to give up a two. Welker just got into town today. The offer sheet has to be agreeable to him. I thought you were saying we were being cautious because we might make a deal that the Dolphins would not match, and stick us with an onerous contract.

 

[stcjones]

Because he's their best receiver. They have actively been shopping McMichael also, FWIW.

So, no, I don't know for a fact. But I'd have to believe that the Dolphins aren't going to accept pick #93 for their best receiver who is signed for reasonable dollars. At that point, they'd probably take somebody else's 3rd rounder and not have to play him twice a year. Yes this is my assumption, although I am quite comfortable with it.

I did go back and read your posts, and must admit I didn't consider that option. However, in this case, I don't think it makes much sense for the Dolphins to accept a late 3rd round pick from a division rival for their best receiver and punt returner.

I keep hearing that he is their BEST receiver......this just isn't true ...(maybe it was last year with a QB like Harrington who threw underneath to the "escape" option (Welker) way to early every time....But their best receiver in their system (when they have a decent QB of course) is Chris Chambers........Chambers was double covered alot last season ...and Welker was the forgotten "dump off guy" that racked up alot of completions...but ONLY ONE TD all season....so let's see this guy for what he is....a very good KR especially against us.....and a good #3-4 WR........But let's not compare him to Troy Brown YET ....with all the things Brown has done for so many years to help this team win championships....that is insulting........

 

[Clonamery]

..But let's not compare him to Troy Brown YET ....with all the things Brown has done for so many years to help this team win championships....that is insulting........

Or wishful thinking.....

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

That's the whole idea, ain't it? Quick theoretical contract - Pats offer Welker a 6 year contract:

8 million SB
Year one: 500,000
Year two: 500,000
Year three: 750,000
Year four: 1 million
Year five: 8 million
Year six: 14 million

Provision that the entire contract is guaranteed of Welker plays four games or more in any season in Dade County.

We're writing the blasted offer. We should damn well be able to write a reasonable contract the Dolphins won't touch. We're left with four years for under 11 million.

And, therein, lies my point. We could do that, have them not match and pay a #2. DONE.

Why, then, would we maybe trade instead ? To lower the price.

 

[dryheat44]

I keep hearing that he is their BEST receiver......this just isn't true ...(maybe it was last year with a QB like Harrington who threw underneath to the "escape" option (Welker) way to early every time....But their best receiver in their system (when they have a decent QB of course) is Chris Chambers........Chambers was double covered alot last season ...and Welker was the forgotten "dump off guy" that racked up alot of completions...but ONLY ONE TD all season....so let's see this guy for what he is....a very good KR especially against us.....and a good #3-4 WR........But let's not compare him to Troy Brown YET ....with all the things Brown has done for so many years to help this team win championships....that is insulting........

Chambers is the most overrated wide receiver, if not player, in the NFL. He flat-out sucks. Drops more than he catches.

 

[dryheat44]

And, therein, lies my point. We could do that, have them not match and pay a #2. DONE.

Why, then, would we maybe trade instead ? To lower the price.

True. I'm not arguing we're paying more. I'm arguing they're not taking less. #2 or player.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Then why would the Dolphins make a trade now? They have a month and a half left of the the RFA period. Why take a third now? Why not call the Patriots bluff? If it is reported everywhere that the Pats intend to offer Welker a contract and Welker was here today, why would the Dolphins believe that the Pats have no intention of giving up a second round pick for Welker.

It just makes no sense to let Welker go for a third round pick especially to a divsion rival who is the best team in the division. Contrary to popular belief, there are intelligent people in other team's front office other than the Pats.

Stop looking at it as a Patriot fan. Look at it objectively. It is reported everywhere the Pats intend on offering Welker a contract for seven years and little under $39 million. Why would the Dolphins negotiate to take less value than a second rounder when the world is saying the Pats are ready to give up a second rounder for Welker. Mueller is a very good businessman. He would never do something so stupid.

If the Pats called Mueller told him they had no intention of signing Welker and giving up a second rounder, his response would be "Sorry, you can't have Welker then." Only a moron would go to the bargaining table and take less when it is well known the Pats want to sign him and were willing to give up a second. At the very worst, Mueller would call Pioli's bluff and let this stay on hold for about a week.

I am looking at it objectively - there are any number of reasons to think that smart FO would take less than a second for Welker.

1) Resolving Welker's contract status now, instead of perhaps dragging out for months as other teams make offers. By doing so the Fins know they have X pick (or palyer) and won't have to worry any longer about how much they might end up paying Welker should they chose to match an offer to keep him. This allows them to start signing other FA's in full knowledge of their cap status. If they wait, the Fins could conceivably to be forced to let Welker go over a reasonable contract amount because they didn't leave enough cap room to match the offer.

2) He shown an interest in leaving, so they may not want him back as much as they once did. Welker could be touring as RFA just to show the Fins how much he's worth around the league, or he might want out of Miami.

3) New coaches never like players as much as previous coaches did.

4) Welker may have said that if he ends up forced to play for the tender amount he will hold out, etc. Fins may have been turned off and just want to move on.

There are more, I'm sure, but I'm not a smart FO person!

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

The part of all this speculation that the Dolphins don't want to keep Welker is that they tendered him at second pick money. They could have tendered him low. They could have tendered him high.

Before they knew the patriots were interested and before anyone even uttered the word "poison pill," they made their claim that he was worth a second rounder to them, but no less. Now we're speculating that this was a clever bluff, before the signing period, to try to get a second rounder for a player they didn't want? I guess speculation is what these boards are for, but this seems out there to me.

I think the patriots floated the poison pill to frame the negotiation and now are working on the question whether there's a player they don't mind giving up that Miami views as more valuable than pick 60.

 

[BPF]

I keep seeeing that. What is the "value' of a second round pick?

A young proven NFL player is worth more than a second round pick who could be a bust. That could be what is being offered by the Patriots.

Miami does not hold all the cards. You tender a player at a certain level for two reasons: (1.) You want to hold on to the player, (2.) You want to make sure you receive value in return so you are not letting young talent walk away with no compensation. If the Pats really want Welker, they will simply sign him to the offer sheet and see how it plays out.

My feeling is that Miami would accept a 3rd Rd pick in this situation, I doubt there will be a player involved because Miami needs the draft choices.

A 1st Rd pick will not be involved in any way here, that's crazy talk.

 

[Rob0729]

Sometimes a bluff isn't a bluff. If they don't think they're going to get a #2 they may be happy to take a for sure something less.


I'm looking at it logically. Given that the Patriots could easily offer a contract the Dolphins wouldn't match at the cost of a #2 then the only thing that makes sense is that the Patriots want to offer something but less than a #2.

Well, we will find out soon since they supposably worked out a trade according to Len P.

 

[italia44]

Mike Felger had a reporter on from the South Florida
Sun Sentinel who says The Dolphins are going to cut
Randy McMichael.He also said that Wes Welker is a terrific football player and the 'fins made a mistake by
not tendering him at the higher first round level of $1.8m.
He also says that the 'fins front office has been kind of dysfunctional lately and they may be on the verge of making more veteran cuts.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Chambers is the most overrated wide receiver, if not player, in the NFL. He flat-out sucks. Drops more than he catches.

Amen brotha! With a #1 like that, who needs enemas, folks in finland have to be crapping themselves with every drop.

 

[SeauOUCH]

Does Miami have the 9th pick in the 2nd & 3rd round? I think it would be awesome if we could trade one of our 1sts plus our 3rd ( & maybe 5th ) for Welker plus Miami's 2nd & 3rd round picks. I think there is a ton of good players that will be available in rounds 2 & 3 but all the players I really like in this draft would be considered "a reach" if taken in the 1st.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Well, we will find out soon since they supposably worked out a trade according to Len P.

Well I will maintain we blew it if we added a #7 - unless we get him for cheap money that would be easily matched. Any big contract and there was no need.

Of course, it wouldn't be the first time we've blown it on trades.

 

[Rob0729]

The part of all this speculation that the Dolphins don't want to keep Welker is that they tendered him at second pick money. They could have tendered him low. They could have tendered him high.

Before they knew the patriots were interested and before anyone even uttered the word "poison pill," they made their claim that he was worth a second rounder to them, but no less. Now we're speculating that this was a clever bluff, before the signing period, to try to get a second rounder for a player they didn't want? I guess speculation is what these boards are for, but this seems out there to me.

I think the patriots floated the poison pill to frame the negotiation and now are working on the question whether there's a player they don't mind giving up that Miami views as more valuable than pick 60.

The thing is the Seahawks tendered DJ Hackett for a second rounder. The Jags tender Ernest Wilford a second. It was apparently the going rate for a WR of Welker's level. Personally, I thought Hackett is worth more than Welker since Hackett was arguably the Seahawks best WR late in the season when Jackson was hobbled.