It's not what you or I think JG's impact is worth. The point of the post, is what does BB think JG can do in an emergency. If he feels he's good enough to give NE a reasonable chance to win, he'll need a lot more draft capital in return to pry him loose. So far, all indications point that he's not giving him away as cheap as many expected. I simply posit here an explanation why it might be so.
There's actually TONS of factors that will determine what JG's market value might be
Whether he can be an effective backup QB isn't really one of them - we know he can be by the very fact he is one. And I think with Matt Cassell Belichick proved he can still win even with just an above average QB
But the more important factor is how badly does Cleveland want him and to that notion, these factors come into play.
#1. Is JG deemed better than the best QB in this year's draft? I'd say yes - simply by actually winning in the NFL and playing behind Brady and for BB for 3 years.
In fact you'd have to say that if JG were subject to the draft, with QB being the most important position, he might well go #1 this year, in part because his actual NFL experience (i.e. if Cleveland wants him bad enough, the #1 pick could enter the picture)
#2 Is the Free Agent QB market a good one this year? I'd have to say "No" to that - of course Tony Romo's potential availability is a factor there too. But as of now all the "best" free agent QBs have been snatched up by the Jets, Bears, 49ers and others
All of this leaves Cleveland in a bit of a lurch - at least if they want to spur a quicker turnaround with a veteran QB with every bit if not more the promise of any drafted QB.
The good news - and another factor inflating the market for JG - is the fact that Cleveland has so many 1st and 2nd round picks in the next 2 draft - so it's not like they can't "afford" to part with more picks than they normally might
While we know Belichick isn't above trading up or even using a top 10 or 15 pick, this is a bit of a weak draft and I can see Belichick trading back with any additional 1st or 2nd round picks he might get - as "his" guys are often in the later rounds, or he'd just as soon use those picks in future years when he'll have to fill other roster holes with rookies (there's not a ton of holes on this team - nor a ton of available roster spots)
The bottom line for Cleveland is they desparately need to win now and shore up wavering fan support. Taking a rookie QB in the 2nd round (as most don't rate too much higher) isn't going to invigorate the fan base.
If they wanted to go a different direction than JG they kindof already missed that bus - which only inflates JG's price even MORE!
As far as Belichick valuing JG as a backup, assuming he doesn't think JG is the next Brady and he's keeping him, Belichick is fond of drafting and developing rookie QBs as his main backups for a few reasons - #1 because in years like this they have improved trade value...
But #2 is because an experienced FA backup QB can be $2 - $4 mil a season depending on the team and situation.
When BB "wastes" a 2nd round pick on a backup QB, he might be using a 2nd rounder on a guy no one hopes ever plays - but he's also filling that roster spot with a guy who counts between $.6 and $1 mil on the cap - and that frees up another million or two for a much more important free agent or re-signing
So there's another checkers and chess analogy where Belichick not only saves on the cap, but has a major draft commodity by having a guy like JG on the team thanks to "wasting" his 2nd rounder (really more of an early 3rd but I digress)
