The System Quarterback? Patriots offense with and without Brady

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

No need to get into hyper analytics mode:

2007 with Brady: 36.8 PPG
2008 without Brady: 25.7 PPG

2015 with Brady: 29.0 PPG
2016 (4 games) without Brady: 20.3 PPG

Overall with Brady 2007/2015: 33.0 PPG
Overall without Brady 208/2016: 24.7 PPG

So...only a difference of 8.3 PPG...doesn't even get into turnovers or the amount of garbage points factored in (Brady NEVER gets garbage points, but the 2008 team was on the wrong end of many blowouts.) Also, the QBs that filled in for him were Matt Cassell, an NFL starter and one-time pro bowl selection, and Jimmy Garoppolo, who many believe will be a starter. Finally, the Patriots had a cake schedule in 2008 after a historically difficult schedule when they ran the table.

Yeah, 8.3 points isn't a big deal. Just the difference between an average offense and an elite offense, or in the other direction the difference between an absolute bottom feeder and an average offense.

Another way of looking at it:

Since 2007, Patriots points per game:

2007: 36.8
2012: 35.8
2010: 32.4
2011: 32.0
2014: 29.3
2015: 29.0
2013: 27.8
2009: 26.7
2008: 25.7
2016 (four games): 20.3

 

[BradyFTW!]

Would be very interested to see time of possession as well, did you use pro football reference queries to get these?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Would be very interested to see time of possession as well, did you use pro football reference queries to get these?

Yes, but this is just "Points Scored" so it is not scientific...example, it doesn't give number of defensive touchdowns, etc. Just a general barometer.

 

[letekro]

Cassell is utter garbage, as 5 teams have found out since he left NE. Yet, he was very good in the one year he started here. The Patriots clearly have a system and personnel that allows for short throws to come open quickly. Brady is the most accurate short passer I have ever seen and can quickly read defenses so he is perfect for it. He wouldn't be as good in any other system. And this system is obviously not as good without Brady. It's not a one-variable world.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

He wouldn't be as good in any other system. And this system is obviously not as good without Brady.

I am just curious as to who is the architect of this system. Was it:

A. Charlie Weis (1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR base)
B. Josh McDaniels circa 2007 (spread, five WR base)
C. Bill O'Brien (2 TE base)
D. Josh McDaniels circa 2014 (mixture centered around TE)

Do you really not realize this "system" has completely transformed since 2001 into numerous incarnations based entirely on the strengths of their offensive weapons? The quick short throws are nothing new to the NFL, and they are the crux of the west coast offense. The reason why this offense is associated with that concept is because it utilizes the strengths of guys like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. But to think that Brady has always gone out there with the same type of gameplan is outright ridiculous. When the Patriots had Randy Moss, they threw deep as much as any team in the league.

 

[TB_Helmet]

It's just a dink and dunk system you guys. Anyone would be successful in it. It's not like Peyton Manning's system, where he IS the offensive coordinator. Look at all the yelling he does before the snap! I know this because I'm good at Madden.

 

[letekro]

I am just curious as to who is the architect of this system. Was it:

A. Charlie Weis (1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR base)
B. Josh McDaniels circa 2007 (spread, five WR base)
C. Bill O'Brien (2 TE base)
D. Josh McDaniels circa 2014 (mixture centered around TE)

Do you really not realize this "system" has completely transformed since 2001 into numerous incarnations based entirely on the strengths of their offensive weapons? The quick short throws are nothing new to the NFL, and they are the crux of the west coast offense. The reason why this offense is associated with that concept is because it utilizes the strengths of guys like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. But to think that Brady has always gone out there with the same type of gameplan is outright ridiculous. When the Patriots had Randy Moss, they threw deep as much as any team in the league.

I think a lot of the concepts in these various incarnations are similar. Certainly, they function better when there is a beast TE who can threaten the seam and clear out for smaller receivers who can get open quickly underneath, as this plays to Brady's greatest strengths--his short-range accuracy and velocity, his pre-snap thinking, and an ungodly ability to hit the seam. Kudos to Brady for working on a back shoulder fade in latter years, but it never looked natural.

His numbers until 2007 were good, not great by any means. 2007 was an anomaly. Moss makes mediocre QBs into all-stars and an all-star like Brady into an all-time great (statistically). That season did not demonstrate a mastery by Brady of the deep ball, but rather an understanding by the team that anything in Moss's general vicinity was a high percentage play. 2009 showed the downside of overreliance on an aging Moss. Since 2010, the offense has had phenomenal personnel and has continued to evolve to get guys open quicker and Brady's numbers have been excellent.

Of course there is also the overall "Belichick system" of game-planning and maximizing player strengths and minimizing weaknesses that each Patriot, including Brady, benefits immensely from.

 

[letekro]

It's just a dink and dunk system you guys. Anyone would be successful in it. It's not like Peyton Manning's system, where he IS the offensive coordinator. Look at all the yelling he does before the snap! I know this because I'm good at Madden.

Its not a one-variable world. Brady benefits from the superior coaching he receives and the great personnel that surrounds him, and they benefit from him. Take away Gronk or Edelman and he is diminished. Of course he would be further diminished if guided by an inferior staff

 

[Schmo]

Brady IS the system. He developed his own way of playing the game. McD helped take it to another level, but Brady is the smartest, quickest thinking post-snap QB that I'VE seen. How many systems are so reliant on option routes? He knows how to utilize his weapons. The other QBs that do well here are just doing their best impression of him in his system.

It's like saying a rich man is a powerful man only because he has money, and anyone who has that much money can be that powerful. Sure, but that man built his own wealth. Brady built his method on his own over the last 15 years.

I am just curious as to who is the architect of this system. Was it:

A. Charlie Weis (1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR base)
B. Josh McDaniels circa 2007 (spread, five WR base)
C. Bill O'Brien (2 TE base)
D. Josh McDaniels circa 2014 (mixture centered around TE)

Do you really not realize this "system" has completely transformed since 2001 into numerous incarnations based entirely on the strengths of their offensive weapons? The quick short throws are nothing new to the NFL, and they are the crux of the west coast offense. The reason why this offense is associated with that concept is because it utilizes the strengths of guys like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. But to think that Brady has always gone out there with the same type of gameplan is outright ridiculous. When the Patriots had Randy Moss, they threw deep as much as any team in the league.

Exactly. I personally think one of Tom's weakest attributes is the long ball. But when you have Randy Moss, you better be smart enough to make the long ball a big part off the offense.

I'm not an expert, but I see it as diagnosing the D and utilizing your weapons according to their strengths.... zone (Welker, Edelman)/man (Moss, Gronk). All completely different players. They learn what Tom needs from his routes, and Tom puts them in the position to do their best.