The Point Spread: Patriots vs Jets

[psychoPat]

I noticed this morning that the Patriots are 6.5 point favorites vs the Jest. ....
Considering the Jets are playing at home and the home field advnatage is usually worth 3 points, this means that they think the Patriots are 9.5 points better than the Jets.

I don't gamble, so this means nothing to me. But from a pure football view point, I think that point spread is rather high. Against a division rival, on their field, first game of the year, I would not have expected to see a spread that high, 3 point tops.

Do they know something that we don't?

What they know, but many posters to the thread may have forgotten is:

Bookmakers don't try to equalize the teams' on-field performance.
It's NOT that the Pats "are 6 1/2 (9 1/2) points better".

They are 6 1/2 points to the bettor
because books want to come as close as possible to drawing
equal money on each side of the bet.

They prosper from the commission (the vig)
... and try to avoid betting on the outcome themselves.

 

[gangreenman]

I noticed this morning that the Patriots are 6.5 point favorites vs the Jest. The only other "spread " that high is Jax playing at home vs Tenn.

Considering the Jets are playing at home and the home field advnatage is usually worth 3 points, this means that they think the Patriots are 9.5 points better than the Jets.

I don't gamble, so this means nothing to me. But from a pure football view point, I think that point spread is rather high. Against a division rival, on their field, first game of the year, I would not have expected to see a spread that high, 3 point tops.

Do they know something that we don't?

I agree, I think its a little high, but who am I to complain?
BTW-The pats were favorites by a 10+ point spread for both reg season games, so this really means nothing.

 

[TruthSeeker]

What they know, but many posters to the thread may have forgotten is:

Bookmakers don't try to equalize the teams' on-field performance.
It's NOT that the Pats "are 6 1/2 (9 1/2) points better".

They are 6 1/2 points to the bettor
because books want to come as close as possible to drawing
equal money on each side of the bet.

They prosper from the commission (the vig)
... and try to avoid betting on the outcome themselves.

True, but this also means that the Patriots are considered 6-1/2 points better judged by the betters who are willing to put money down on the game. In other words, what the betters are willing to do with their money is a relatively accurate judgment of reality at this moment. It's a very broad base of people and it probably does reflect the reality of the difference between the 2 teams.

 

[Gunnails]

NO interdivisional game should be more than 5 points,Teams know each other pretty well and its NEVER a good decision to go with the favorite who is more than 5 points favored.

6.5 is ridiculous
3 1/2 seems to be more realistic

New England 24
New York Jets 20

Thats sounds about the final score IMO

=================================

QFT.

 

[sieglo]

Well, the point spread is what it is. The important thing is that the Patriots go out there, try to do the things that they need to do, make some plays in all phases of the game. From now until Sunday I'll just be taking it day to day.