The narrative I'd like to hear next week.

[mgcolby]

Betting line is just Vegas going after the psychology of the bettor and believing which point will get them close to the 50% mark. Clearly eary betting went wit the Rams and it's moved from Pats at -3 to +3? That's a bug swing. Really has nothing to do with expectation of real results.

Another story will be McVie who is the young/hot coach who is innovative with his offense. McDaniels gets credit too, but there have been so many SB Patriot stories over time, probably even journalists are looking for something new and go the easy route and talk about the team that hasn't been there since 2001 (which was the beginning of the Patriot/BB dynasty).

Side note, who cares about Boston media. Why would anyone bother with them, when we have such a fine collection of (mostly) like minded fans here.

Clearly then I reversed my pluses/minuses. I thought the pats were being favored now.

That is partially true. The majority of the time they do their best to push 50-50 as best they can. But don't be fooled the books gamble too, when they do it it's called Reverse Line Movement. They will take the line in the opposite direction that they should based in the public bets and entice bettors to bet on who they want them to bet on.

It happens a lot in College football. I kept track of this a few years back and the Books had a 70-80% winning percentage in RLM games.

Currently 80% of the money is on the Pat's and the line moved 2.5 points in the rams favor. Bovada has them at -3 @ -105

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting

 

[supafly]

The Pats started out as 1 point dog and are now a 3 point favorite because betters hammered the Pats until the line kinda stabilized around this.

In my opinion, Vegas was simply off on the opening line. Instead of LA-1, it should’ve been NE-1.

If that had been the case, a two point change to -3 wouldn’t have been that big of a story.

 

[luuked]

Currently 80% of the money is on the Pat's and the line moved 2.5 points in the rams favor. Bovada has them at -3 @ -105

When you say it moved in the Rams favor you mean because now you can get them as an underdog +3 ?

The terminology is kinda weird to me because going from -1 to +2.5 (which is a movement of 3.5) makes them the (ever so slight) underdog so saying it went into their favor seems confusing.

 

[DarrylS]

One thing we know and can look forward is that somehow, someway some pundit will claim that the SB is tainted because of what the Pats did or did not do. Someone sitting in their mothers basement will dissect an innocuous event and turn it into a major shytstorm.. then a national pundit will run with it...

Consider if the Conf Championship was held at Gillette and there was evidence of a laser in Mahomes eyes.. that would have been a really, really big deal.. by now we would have found out who the culprit was, where the culprit lives and other salacious details of the alleged culprit. The National Sports media would have acted like the rabid dogs they are...

Consider the reaction to the Chiefs Defense failing to stop the Pats after they won the cointoss in OT.. they want to change the rules. Then consider the response of NOLA failing to stop the Rams after they won the cointoss.. nary a peep.

Yea it is the NEP against the world, the best way to beat down this nattering nabobs of negativity is to just f..ing win....

 

[mgcolby]

When you say it moved in the Rams favor you mean because now you can get them as an underdog +3 ?

The terminology is kinda weird to me because going from -1 to +2.5 (which is a movement of 3.5) makes them the (ever so slight) underdog so saying it went into their favor seems confusing.

Yes the line went in the direction it should have based on the bet percentages. Not as much as it probably should have IMO but it's still early.

 

[aluminum seats]

Nothing too mysterious here. Pats are well coached and get the most from their players. Brady>Goff explains the line.

Saints would have been a closer line, but I also think the Saints would have been an easier game for the Pats.

 

[TruthSeeker]

MJD is the Rob Parker of NFL Network.

Wow. I've heard a lot of insults but that is hitting below the belt.

 

[mosslost]

96% of the betting has been on the Patriots, even though most books opened with the Rams slightly favored. Honestly, I’d be thrilled to hear more narratives about why the Rams should win this game. I never like being the hyped up team who can’t possibly lose, and I see this being another very close matchup just like almost all SBs are. So while I understand the Patriots fan confidence/passion, the national confidence doesn’t make that much sense to me. The Rams may have “gotten a break” and the Patriots may have “that look” but it doesn’t matter much as each game is an independent event. Two very strong teams on a neutral field. One team may have a slight edge but there’s no way this is a clear call.

Any given Sunday, one game. Anything can happen but I think it will be close and stressful like always and can go either way.

 

[mosslost]

The only narrative you will hear in Boston by the morons on radio is how the pats should have lost and how the fans can’t appreciate that they should have lost.

Every topic possible will be turned into ‘how does that not also apply to tha rams?’

It’s already to the point that felger is making up crap that nobody said.

The Patriots burned Felger and Mazz a long time ago and they just have a grudge. Felger does anything he can to singe Pats fans. Mazz just does whatever Felger does for the purpose of their show.

The rest of Boston media (WEEI, and the other shows) are pretty pro-Pats.

 

[mosslost]

We are playing with house money at this point. It is all gravy to me. It is February and our football team still has 60 minutes to play before we go into a long 7 month lay off.....

After we win 7 it will be all gravy to me at that point.

Winning this one is not gravy. Need number 6.

 

[mosslost]

The Narrative I want to hear next week is this:

THE MOTHERF*KING PATRIOTS JUST WON ANOTHER F*CKING LOMBARDI TROPHY. NOW ITS GOING TO BE THE MOTHERF*CKING BILL F*CKING BELICHICK TROPHY, WITH TOM MOTHERF*CKING BRADY HOISTING THAT F*CKING THING FOREVER AND EVER!!!

I’d be happy with this.

Because of the hater crap we have been through I want Brady to just keep on playing and playing and winning as many lombardis as he possibly can. If he played until 50 and outlasted and out won all the new young guns I would love it forever.

PS. I mean Brady has already been our "next brady" (his career supurpasses BOTH Montana and Young combined in everything including total years of service)

Why not Brady be the "next Brady" for us yet a third time over?

 

[IllegalContact]

Here's a place you can go to to argue about politics. Good luck.

The Briefing Room - A Conservative Political Hub

now why'd you have to show me that? now I'm going to have to go and blow that pile of drooling morons up

 

[The Brandon Five]

That is partially true. The majority of the time they do their best to push 50-50 as best they can. But don't be fooled the books gamble too, when they do it it's called Reverse Line Movement. They will take the line in the opposite direction that they should based in the public bets and entice bettors to bet on who they want them to bet on.

It happens a lot in College football. I kept track of this a few years back and the Books had a 70-80% winning percentage in RLM games.

Currently 80% of the money is on the Pat's and the line moved 2.5 points in the rams favor. Bovada has them at -3 @ -105

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting

So since the line moved to favor the Pats, are you saying that the books are putting their money on the Rams?

 

[PP2]

Here's a place you can go to to argue about politics. Good luck.

The Briefing Room - A Conservative Political Hub

I apologize for insulting orangutans everywhere. They don't deserve such an unjust comparison.

 

[Hyped]

After we win 7 it will be all gravy to me at that point.

Winning this one is not gravy. Need number 6.

 

[mgcolby]

So since the line moved to favor the Pats, are you saying that the books are putting their money on the Rams?

No the line moved correctly, sorry could have worded that better. The line opened even/pick in most places in some it was LA -1, now it is the Pats -2.5 / -3 with 80% of the money on the Pats so the books are moving the line in the correct way.

 

[The Brandon Five]

No the line moved correctly, sorry could have worded that better. The line opened even/pick in most places in some it was LA -1, now it is the Pats -2.5 / -3 with 80% of the money on the Pats so the books are moving the line in the correct way.

But if this was an RLM situation, wouldn't that mean the books are putting their own money on the Rams (betting against the public "squares")?

 

[sambam94]

I gave up listening to the noise many years ago. When we get in the SB I usually spend my time here and re-watching the 3 Games to Glory series. I hope I can squeeze them all in this week.

The only thing I don't agree with in the OP has come up in another thread here. That's the idea that the Pats pick at the end of every round so they lose very much. The truth is that the teams with the worse records gain on one player only, in the first round. After that player is picked the Pats are picking ahead of those teams for the rest of their picks. To me the difference isn't as drastic as it's made out to be.

how are they picking ahead of teams after the first pick?...It's not fantasy football with a snake draft.

 

[mgcolby]

But if this was an RLM situation, wouldn't that mean the books are putting their own money on the Rams (betting against the public "squares")?

Yes, that is what RLM is, but outside of the lower juice there is nothing indicating possoble RLM at the moment.

 

[PP2]

and you're a complete dumbass for bringing politics into this thread.

Except, I didn't. I responded to the posting of an article by pointing out that Brady has long since seen the light. Hope you do too, brother.