The Master "Blow it Up" Plan

[ivanvamp]

I am not necessarily saying that this team needs to be "blown up" because there's still a ton of talent here and I'd like to see what it's like when everyone is healthy. A healthy and productive Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Bailey, and Melancon would do wonders for this team. That said, if they're going to blow it up, here's the recipe (i.e., here's what I'd pursue as GM).

You have to be realistic about what your guys are worth. And you have to be willing to live with a rebuilding process that will take a year-plus, meaning that 2014 is the year to expect the Red Sox phoenix to rise from the ashes. But I believe it could be a very exciting process. Ok, here we go.

Guys already in the system to form the 2014 core:

2b Pedroia
C Lavarnway
3b Middlebrooks
LF Crawford (I just don't see any way they can move the guy without eating the bulk of his contract)
RF Kalish
1b Gonzalez
SS Iglesias (maybe he still won't hit much but that's ok...put him in the 9-hole and watch him eat up everything anywhere near him at SS)
OF Brentz
SP Bard
SP Doubront
SP Barnes (kid is dominant...could see him in the majors easily in 2014)
RP Wilson
RP Tazawa

Now, this means that the Sox would be looking to move: Youkilis, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and Ellsbury. Yes, I know. Crazy stuff. But clearly this core right there is not getting it done. They are all tremendously talented, no denying that. And Lester and Buchholz have reasonable contracts. But they are also guys (Ellsbury and Lester especially) who could fetch a TON in return, so they represent some of the team's best tradable assets.

Move #1: Trade Youkilis to the Brewers for P Wily Peralta, their top pitching prospect. They have a gaping hole at 1b and their farm system is kind of bare after their trade for Grienke. But Peralta is a very intriguing pitcher. 23 years old, career minor league numbers of 3.76 era, 1.34 whip, and 8.5 k/9. His issue is walks. But he's strong, has really good stuff, and is the kind of pitcher you take a chance on.

Move #2: Trade Beckett to Atlanta for P Randall Delgado and P Jonny Venters. The Braves have enough cash, and they have tons of pitching talent all throughout their system. Delgado has tons of upside, but adding Beckett would give them a ridiculous rotation of Hudson, Hanson, Beckett, and Beachy. They also have plenty of bullpen arms to replace Venters. The Sox get one of the best relievers in baseball and another dynamic young arm to groom for 2014.

Move #3: Trade Lester to the Diamondbacks for P Trevor Bauer and P Patrick Corbin. Look, Bauer is one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball...that's no secret. And Arizona would be hesitant (to say the least) to give him up. But look what they're acquiring: one of the game's best pitchers, a consistent performer (from year-to-year) in the toughest division in baseball. Imagine what Lester will do in the NL West. And Lester's contract is very friendly for a team like Arizona. Bauer is someone that someday might be as good as Lester, but right now, no contest. This would be a blockbuster deal, but it's hard to argue how it wouldn't work out for Arizona - they'd be getting a premier pitcher. But for the Sox, why do it then? Because Lester seems to be part of that culture that needs to change in Boston, and adding Bauer and another dynamic young pitcher would be a tremendous haul for Lester.

Move #4: Trade Ellsbury and Buchholz to Colorado for OF Carlos Gonzalez and P Tyler Matzek. Yes, there, I said it. Talk about a blockbuster. Look at the best seasons for Ellsbury and Gonzalez:

Ellsbury (2011): .321/.376/.552/.928, 146 ops+, 32 hr, 105 rbi, 39 sb, 8.0 WAR
Gonzalez (2010): .336/.376/.598/.974, 143 ops+, 34 hr, 117 rbi, 26 sb, 5.8 WAR

So at their best, Ellsbury's best was a little better than Gonzalez' best. Plus, the Red Sox are throwing in Clay Buchholz, who immediately would become the Rockies' best pitcher. So why on earth would you do it if you're the Sox? Well, first, Gonzalez has been far more consistent than Ellsbury. Second, he's locked up for semi-reasonable money through 2017 (avg of $14.2 million a year from 2013-2017), which is his age 31 season. And third, you're adding another intriguing pitching prospect in Matzek....he has a lot of ability; you're hoping it pans out.

So what are we left with, looking at 2014?

C - Lavarnway, Saltalamacchia
1b - A. Gonzalez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Middlebrooks
SS - Iglesias/Bogaerts
LF - Crawford
CF - C. Gonzalez
RF - Kalish/Brentz
DH - ?? (would need to find someone)

SP - Bard, Doubront, Barnes, Bauer, Delgado
RP - Matzek, Venters, Peralta, Corbin, Alex Wilson, Bailey

That rotation would be incredibly exciting. Tons of young, cheap, power arms with huge upside. The lineup would have plenty of thump (I envision it looking like this):

LF Crawford
2b Pedroia
1b A. Gonzalez
3b Middlebrooks
CF C. Gonzalez
DH someone (a veteran) with power
C Lavarnway
RF Kalish
SS Iglesias

That lineup would still score a ton of runs, and it would be excellent defensively. Put that lineup out there with a young starting pitching core of Bard, Doubront, Barnes, Bauer, Delgado, et al., and you have the makings of a phenomenal team that should be excellent for a long time - most of those guys would be making peanuts.

And all those trades actually help the clubs I'm suggesting the Sox trade with. Yes, they give up some quality pieces (Bauer and Carlos Gonzalez especially), but they'd be getting back guys that are also tremendous and are worth acquiring.

So again, I'm not suggesting the Sox blow it up, but if they do, this is a plan I'd love to see them pursue.

 

[Steve102]

I am not necessarily saying that this team needs to be "blown up" because there's still a ton of talent here and I'd like to see what it's like when everyone is healthy. A healthy and productive Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Bailey, and Melancon would do wonders for this team. That said, if they're going to blow it up, here's the recipe (i.e., here's what I'd pursue as GM).

You have to be realistic about what your guys are worth. And you have to be willing to live with a rebuilding process that will take a year-plus, meaning that 2014 is the year to expect the Red Sox phoenix to rise from the ashes. But I believe it could be a very exciting process. Ok, here we go.

Guys already in the system to form the 2014 core:

2b Pedroia
C Lavarnway
3b Middlebrooks
LF Crawford (I just don't see any way they can move the guy without eating the bulk of his contract)
RF Kalish
1b Gonzalez
SS Iglesias (maybe he still won't hit much but that's ok...put him in the 9-hole and watch him eat up everything anywhere near him at SS)
OF Brentz
SP Bard
SP Doubront
SP Barnes (kid is dominant...could see him in the majors easily in 2014)
RP Wilson
RP Tazawa

Now, this means that the Sox would be looking to move: Youkilis, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and Ellsbury. Yes, I know. Crazy stuff. But clearly this core right there is not getting it done. They are all tremendously talented, no denying that. And Lester and Buchholz have reasonable contracts. But they are also guys (Ellsbury and Lester especially) who could fetch a TON in return, so they represent some of the team's best tradable assets.

Move #1: Trade Youkilis to the Brewers for P Wily Peralta, their top pitching prospect. They have a gaping hole at 1b and their farm system is kind of bare after their trade for Grienke. But Peralta is a very intriguing pitcher. 23 years old, career minor league numbers of 3.76 era, 1.34 whip, and 8.5 k/9. His issue is walks. But he's strong, has really good stuff, and is the kind of pitcher you take a chance on.

Move #2: Trade Beckett to Atlanta for P Randall Delgado and P Jonny Venters. The Braves have enough cash, and they have tons of pitching talent all throughout their system. Delgado has tons of upside, but adding Beckett would give them a ridiculous rotation of Hudson, Hanson, Beckett, and Beachy. They also have plenty of bullpen arms to replace Venters. The Sox get one of the best relievers in baseball and another dynamic young arm to groom for 2014.

Move #3: Trade Lester to the Diamondbacks for P Trevor Bauer and P Patrick Corbin. Look, Bauer is one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball...that's no secret. And Arizona would be hesitant (to say the least) to give him up. But look what they're acquiring: one of the game's best pitchers, a consistent performer (from year-to-year) in the toughest division in baseball. Imagine what Lester will do in the NL West. And Lester's contract is very friendly for a team like Arizona. Bauer is someone that someday might be as good as Lester, but right now, no contest. This would be a blockbuster deal, but it's hard to argue how it wouldn't work out for Arizona - they'd be getting a premier pitcher. But for the Sox, why do it then? Because Lester seems to be part of that culture that needs to change in Boston, and adding Bauer and another dynamic young pitcher would be a tremendous haul for Lester.

Move #4: Trade Ellsbury and Buchholz to Colorado for OF Carlos Gonzalez and P Tyler Matzek. Yes, there, I said it. Talk about a blockbuster. Look at the best seasons for Ellsbury and Gonzalez:

Ellsbury (2011): .321/.376/.552/.928, 146 ops+, 32 hr, 105 rbi, 39 sb, 8.0 WAR
Gonzalez (2010): .336/.376/.598/.974, 143 ops+, 34 hr, 117 rbi, 26 sb, 5.8 WAR

So at their best, Ellsbury's best was a little better than Gonzalez' best. Plus, the Red Sox are throwing in Clay Buchholz, who immediately would become the Rockies' best pitcher. So why on earth would you do it if you're the Sox? Well, first, Gonzalez has been far more consistent than Ellsbury. Second, he's locked up for semi-reasonable money through 2017 (avg of $14.2 million a year from 2013-2017), which is his age 31 season. And third, you're adding another intriguing pitching prospect in Matzek....he has a lot of ability; you're hoping it pans out.

So what are we left with, looking at 2014?

C - Lavarnway, Saltalamacchia
1b - A. Gonzalez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Middlebrooks
SS - Iglesias/Bogaerts
LF - Crawford
CF - C. Gonzalez
RF - Kalish/Brentz
DH - ?? (would need to find someone)

SP - Bard, Doubront, Barnes, Bauer, Delgado
RP - Matzek, Venters, Peralta, Corbin, Alex Wilson, Bailey

That rotation would be incredibly exciting. Tons of young, cheap, power arms with huge upside. The lineup would have plenty of thump (I envision it looking like this):

LF Crawford
2b Pedroia
1b A. Gonzalez
3b Middlebrooks
CF C. Gonzalez
DH someone (a veteran) with power
C Lavarnway
RF Kalish
SS Iglesias

That lineup would still score a ton of runs, and it would be excellent defensively. Put that lineup out there with a young starting pitching core of Bard, Doubront, Barnes, Bauer, Delgado, et al., and you have the makings of a phenomenal team that should be excellent for a long time - most of those guys would be making peanuts.

And all those trades actually help the clubs I'm suggesting the Sox trade with. Yes, they give up some quality pieces (Bauer and Carlos Gonzalez especially), but they'd be getting back guys that are also tremendous and are worth acquiring.

So again, I'm not suggesting the Sox blow it up, but if they do, this is a plan I'd love to see them pursue.

You put a lot of thought into this. Good for you. I'm never one to speculate this detailed, as it never seems to work out the way I think.

I know I am a jaded, cynical fan, but i don't see this organization having the sack to launch the marquis players for prospects. IMO this front office would need to either A) fleece the other guy or B) make the "sexy" trade that brings in a marquis player for 50 cents on the dollar or some equally ridiculous scenario. I see them too wrapped up in selling the image of the team as being great, the organization being great, and the man in mirror being great. In short, I believe the triad of Luchino/Werner/Henry are legends in their own minds, and could never blow it up to the level that you're speaking. That would admit failure of biblical proportions, and I don't see them doing it. Rather, I see them trying to spin their way out of this mess, further infuriating the fan base. I think they just don't get it.

Having said all that, I agree that Youk should go in favor of Middlebrooks. I don't know how they'll get anything more than a mid range prospect for him, given his age and injury history.

I am also in favor of moving Ellsbury, if an extension cannot be worked out. He's a Boras client, and Boras will have Ells signing in New York so fast it'll make your head spin.

Lester should garner top prospects, although I believe, for whatever reason, that he can be saved.

Beckett...adios. They should have launched him last fall/winter. I am of the opinion that moving Beckett could change the entire makeup of the staff, and perhaps bring in a better work ethic.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I don't care how they do it ... i just want the following players gone:

1: Saltalamacchia .... worst catcher in baseball .... dumb as a rock.
1a: Saltalamacchia .... Get
1b: Saltalamacchia .... Rid
1c: Saltalamacchia .... OF
1d: Saltalamacchia ... HIM!!!

2: Youk
3: Beckett
4: Bard ... may end up being good ... will never be a dirt dog.

 

[ausbacker]

The master plan; Fire Cherrington, hire Jon Daniels and tell ownership to STFÚ and let him do his job.

 

[resdubwhite]

the way things are going they won't be able to get a bag of bats for this team.


THe grand plan at this stage must be to rid the team of salaries. No matter how unpalatable it becomes.

 

[ausbacker]

I don't care how they do it ... i just want the following players gone:

1: Saltalamacchia .... worst catcher in baseball .... dumb as a rock.
1a: Saltalamacchia .... Get
1b: Saltalamacchia .... Rid
1c: Saltalamacchia .... OF
1d: Saltalamacchia ... HIM!!!

2: Youk
3: Beckett
4: Bard ... may end up being good ... will never be a dirt dog.

Describing Salty as a below average catcher would be doing below average catchers around the league a disservice. I can't think of too many people here who were jumping for joy upon his acquisition.

The more you look at the roster the more you see the holes. The Sox need a major shake up. Let's get young and let's get athletic.

 

[Wolfpack]

My friend, I am not trying to be mean spirited here but your trades are just not even remotely based in anything even resembling reality. To analyze:

Move #1: Trade Youkilis to the Brewers for P Wily Peralta, their top pitching prospect.

Gotta be honest with you and say I am not terribly familiar with Milwaukee's farm system, but it is laughable to suggest they would trade a top pitching prospect for a beat up, broken down, way past his prime player.

Move #2: Trade Beckett to Atlanta for P Randall Delgado and P Jonny Venters. The Braves have enough cash, and they have tons of pitching talent all throughout their system. Delgado has tons of upside, but adding Beckett would give them a ridiculous rotation of Hudson, Hanson, Beckett, and Beachy. They also have plenty of bullpen arms to replace Venters. The Sox get one of the best relievers in baseball and another dynamic young arm to groom for 2014.

This suggestion was one I couldn't help but laugh at. We literally would not be able to get Atlanta (or anyone else for that matter) to take on Beckett even without giving anything in return, let alone 2 serviceable arms.

Move #3: Trade Lester to the Diamondbacks for P Trevor Bauer and P Patrick Corbin. Look, Bauer is one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball...that's no secret. And Arizona would be hesitant (to say the least) to give him up. But look what they're acquiring: one of the game's best pitchers, a consistent performer (from year-to-year) in the toughest division in baseball.

There is absolutely no list of "games best pitchers" that puts Lester on it, unless that list goes about 25 deep.

Move #4: Trade Ellsbury and Buchholz to Colorado for OF Carlos Gonzalez and P Tyler Matzek. Yes, there, I said it. Talk about a blockbuster. Look at the best seasons for Ellsbury and Gonzalez:

Ellsbury (2011): .321/.376/.552/.928, 146 ops+, 32 hr, 105 rbi, 39 sb, 8.0 WAR
Gonzalez (2010): .336/.376/.598/.974, 143 ops+, 34 hr, 117 rbi, 26 sb, 5.8 WAR

So at their best, Ellsbury's best was a little better than Gonzalez' best. Plus, the Red Sox are throwing in Clay Buchholz, who immediately would become the Rockies' best pitcher.

I actually advocated trading Ellsbury during the offseason because his value would never be higher. Unfortunately now that he has been injured (yet again) nobody is going to trade anything but a bag of balls for him until seeing how he came back.

Maybe we could trade Carl Crawford for Josh Hamilton while we're at it. :rocker: