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The folly of picking winners and losers this early....and other idle thoughts


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patfanken

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As everyone is hearing about picking winners an losers this early, I am reminded of how dumb it is. I mean, I know it's a fun mental exercise to pass the time, but to put any substance into it is.....folly. You only have to look at the Pats defense at this point of last season. Would ANYONE have suspected that THAT defense would be lights out one we saw in the playoffs? Of course not, but it happened.

Declaring teams' seasons over who are 3-3 or worse, reminds me of our own early season failings over the years. First and foremost WAS our first and foremost. Back in 2001, we were 5-5 coming off a home loss to the Rams. Well it's easy to forget that from that point the Pats won their next 9 games and a championship.

So perhaps the lesson here is NOT to me blanket judgments on KC, Philly, and the Minnesota's of the league and just watch how things progress. In my mind, it's not until a team has 6 losses and there is more than 3 games left that their season comes into question. We are a long way from that. Just sayin'

I saw something in the media yesterday that made me go hmmmm. Someone noted that 9 of the 11 starters on the Pats defense are 28 or older. :eek: So when you think about some of the reasons WHY this defense has been historically good you have to conclude that experience is one of them. And its that EXPERIENCE that allows the team to have the great versatility and the ability to communicate within all 3 levels of the defense, AND the ability to recognize what the offense is showing them by their personnel groupings, formations, calls, and motions. And finally the ability to absorb the coaching the different week to week game plans, so that they CAN recognize the things that will give them an edge on any play. Lets break this down further,

Position Flexibility - We see along the DL with Shelton, Guy, Bennett, Butler, Wise, etc, ALL playing 2 or 3 position within the DL. Its even more obvious along with the LB's and DB. But not so much in a guy like Winovich. He plays OLB/edge rusher and that's about it....and rightly so. Perhaps 3 or 4 years down the road he'll be able to do what Hightower and Van Noy do now, but not now. If the defense was made up with 4-6 players with just 1-3 years of experience, "position flexibility" would be a lot less of a factor.

Communication - Even in the Pats recent history "communication" was limited to one guy or perhaps 2. But given the experience of THIS team, that responsibility goes FAR beyond the guy who has the green dot. Just as the definition of "communication" goes well beyond the call that's signaled in from the sideline. In fact that part of it might be the LEAST important factor.

What the defense lines up in is far more predicated on the personnel package, formations and motions rather than a call from the sideline. When the offense lines up it take more than one guy to get all the information out to everyone so that everyone is on the same page when the ball is snapped. The speed of that recognition is often a function of experience as well as coaching and preparation.

Recognition - THIS is one of the reasons the Patriots ARE the Patriots and other teams aren't. Remember when there was a question whether the defense would suffer because of all the defections from that side of the staff this off season. I mean literally we were left with a guy who was a consultant the year before, a guy who had never coached before and the coach's son. Who wouldn't wonder about how it would work?

I'm guessing that beyond the fact that so much of what is done has been "institutionalized" through the mult-transitions over the past 20 years; So in the end we find that Bilema is a fine DL coach, Mayo really knows his stuff, and Steve Bellichick is a lot more than just a product of nepotism. So in the end, almost EVERY week our players enter the game with a great understanding of what to expect when they get on the field, as WELL as how to adjust when what they expect isn't what's happening.

That's a given a. nd it's been a huge advantage But the fact is that it is a lot easier to make adjustments and absorb game plans when you've done for 4 years or more at the NFL level. So this edge the Pats usually have has been expanded by their team wide experience.

Smarts - Just going down the line of the 20 odd players who are getting regular snaps on the defensive side of the ball, one constant you seem to hear about all of them is that they are SMAR T. They have high football IQ's. They are coachable. These and other cliches that describe players who are more than their physical components are what is making all we are seeing possible.

Unfortunately the same experience we love is the reason these runs of excellence are so short. A lot of these guys will soon retire. Others will become too expensive. Offenses will eventually catch up. All good things are finite. So is this So enjoy while we can. If you can appreciate good defense, it certainly is a beautiful thing to watch
 
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Cleveland is another team getting buried way too early. Sure, I expected more than 2 wins by now, but not by a whole lot. Look at their schedule (both before and after this point in time) and how mediocre the rest of the AFC is. The Raiders and Colts might legitimately be making playoff pushes. When that's the state of the conference, and the AFCN looks the way it currently does, it's hard to count the Browns out. They won't do anything in the playoffs if they make it of course.

The most hilarious narrative I've been seeing lately is the "I told you so" victory lap about Sam Darnold being better than Baker Mayfield. Right now it's looking more like both picks weren't great.
 
I suppose you think it dumb to think that NE, HOU, BALT and KC are likely to win their divisions and the IND, OAK and BUF will be fighting for wildcard spots.

Sure, anything can happen, and perhaps someone like PITT could squeeze into the playoffs. Personally, I don't think that it is unreasonable to believe that the playoff teams (winners) will be from this group of 8 teams, and that the rest (the losers) will be on the outside looking in.
==========
The NFC seems even more ready to name winners
SEA, 49ers, NO, MINN, GB, (PHI or DAL)

As everyone is hearing about picking winners an losers this early, I am reminded of how dumb it is. .
 
I suppose you think it dumb to think that NE, HOU, BALT and KC are likely to win their divisions and the IND, OAK and BUF will be fighting for wildcard spots.

Sure, anything can happen, and perhaps someone like PITT could squeeze into the playoffs. Personally, I don't think that it is unreasonable to believe that the playoff teams (winners) will be from this group of 8 teams, and that the rest (the losers) will be on the outside looking in.
==========
The NFC seems even more ready to name winners
SEA, 49ers, NO, MINN, GB, (PHI or DAL)
So basically you believe that in the AFC the next 10 games really don't mean anything and we should all just forget them and wait for January. :rolleyes:
 
Well, there are some teams you can legitimately bury right now in the AFC:

Jets: 1-4 currently...would need to finish 9-2 at minimum to make it. They still have @Balitmore and @Buffalo on the schedule as well as the Patriots on MNF. In the other games, they might not be big under dogs or even the favorite....but they have their work cut out for them.

Dolphins: 0-6 currently.....this team needs to run the table now. With the Rosen/Fitz experiment at QB...not likely....and they play @ Gillette one more time too.

Bengals: 0-6 currently...Rams, Ravens, and Patriots on the schedule.

After that...we have a bunch of 2-4 teams that could make a run like (ranked in order of most likely to least likely):

Steelers 2-4
Browns 2-4
Jaguars 2-4
Chargers 2-4
Titans 2-4
Broncos 2-4

The remaining 7 teams in the AFC are all 3-2 or better.

That's the entire AFC in a nut shell....
 
I prefer to wait until after Thanksgiving to assess potential playoff teams. stuff happens, injuries, suspensions, for a particular team and their opponents....Remember many counted the Colts out last year at this time....heck many counted the Pats as iffy too
 
So basically you believe that in the AFC the next 10 games really don't mean anything and we should all just forget them and wait for January. :rolleyes:

I agree with your overall point Ken but at the same time unless injuries hit us absolutely crazily it really is the case that there are maybe 2 games left on the schedule that will give me any tension. And that is only with HFA in mind.

In terms of postseason it is more or less a done deal already. Yeah of course we could randomly lose a game here or there but that is just noise that will be irrelevant come January.

I have that much trust and faith into the coaching staff and this team.


Now when it comes to other teams who knows how any of them will look in December.
 
For the patriots and several others, the rest of season is about playoff seeding, and fighting for the wildcards spots. As I said PITT and BALT are fightimg it out for the division.

8 teams up for 6 playoff spots; that's a lot to watch.


So basically you believe that in the AFC the next 10 games really don't mean anything and we should all just forget them and wait for January. :rolleyes:
 
Interesting when I wrote this thread, I was thinking about getting all philosophical to pass the time on a slow day before Jets week heats up again. Well by the time I finished it, the whole Bennett thing broke and it turned out to be anything but a slow start to the week.

Also given a rewrite, I would have eliminated the whole schedule thing and concentrated one the far more interesting "experience" factor. I really need an editor sometimes.
 
So basically you believe that in the AFC the next 10 games really don't mean anything and we should all just forget them and wait for January. :rolleyes:
it's really the opposite. Ignoring the first 6 makes no sense at all (mainly because they are already in the books)

Getting a "lead" in the race matters in the NFL, and it makes predicting the end standings at least possible.
 
Cleveland is another team getting buried way too early. They won't do anything in the playoffs if they make it of course.


I think that's all anyone around cares about. Having watched that group, they're going nowhere important.
 
Also given a rewrite, I would have eliminated the whole schedule thing and concentrated one the far more interesting "experience" factor. I really need an editor sometimes.

If we are nitpicking I also don't think you gave Bielema, Belichick Jr. and Mayo enough credit. Especially Bielema is not really well described as "he was a consultant last year".

He has coached so much college football and had big impact on many SB titles here given that Flowers and White are products of his.
 
While only related to the thread title by a minuscule amount, I'm still alive in my survivor pool (pick one team to win each week, can't repeat picks, lose and you're out). About 20% of the pool is still in.

This year the strategy has generally been to pick against the Dolphins, although that almost lost vs Washington (I went with Ravens instead) and you can't do it when they play an AFC East opponent the second time.

It's actually a lot harder early in the season before you figure out who's good and who sucks, but at this point we have some good trends.
 
Titans benching Mariota again
 
As everyone is hearing about picking winners an losers this early, I am reminded of how dumb it is. I mean, I know it's a fun mental exercise to pass the time, but to put any substance into it is.....folly. You only have to look at the Pats defense at this point of last season. Would ANYONE have suspected that THAT defense would be lights out one we saw in the playoffs? Of course not, but it happened.

Declaring teams' seasons over who are 3-3 or worse, reminds me of our own early season failings over the years. First and foremost WAS our first and foremost. Back in 2001, we were 5-5 coming off a home loss to the Rams. Well it's easy to forget that from that point the Pats won their next 9 games and a championship.

So perhaps the lesson here is NOT to me blanket judgments on KC, Philly, and the Minnesota's of the league and just watch how things progress. In my mind, it's not until a team has 6 losses and there is more than 3 games left that their season comes into question. We are a long way from that. Just sayin'

I saw something in the media yesterday that made me go hmmmm. Someone noted that 9 of the 11 starters on the Pats defense are 28 or older. :eek: So when you think about some of the reasons WHY this defense has been historically good you have to conclude that experience is one of them. And its that EXPERIENCE that allows the team to have the great versatility and the ability to communicate within all 3 levels of the defense, AND the ability to recognize what the offense is showing them by their personnel groupings, formations, calls, and motions. And finally the ability to absorb the coaching the different week to week game plans, so that they CAN recognize the things that will give them an edge on any play. Lets break this down further,

Position Flexibility - We see along the DL with Shelton, Guy, Bennett, Butler, Wise, etc, ALL playing 2 or 3 position within the DL. Its even more obvious along with the LB's and DB. But not so much in a guy like Winovich. He plays OLB/edge rusher and that's about it....and rightly so. Perhaps 3 or 4 years down the road he'll be able to do what Hightower and Van Noy do now, but not now. If the defense was made up with 4-6 players with just 1-3 years of experience, "position flexibility" would be a lot less of a factor.

Communication - Even in the Pats recent history "communication" was limited to one guy or perhaps 2. But given the experience of THIS team, that responsibility goes FAR beyond the guy who has the green dot. Just as the definition of "communication" goes well beyond the call that's signaled in from the sideline. In fact that part of it might be the LEAST important factor.

What the defense lines up in is far more predicated on the personnel package, formations and motions rather than a call from the sideline. When the offense lines up it take more than one guy to get all the information out to everyone so that everyone is on the same page when the ball is snapped. The speed of that recognition is often a function of experience as well as coaching and preparation.

Recognition - THIS is one of the reasons the Patriots ARE the Patriots and other teams aren't. Remember when there was a question whether the defense would suffer because of all the defections from that side of the staff this off season. I mean literally we were left with a guy who was a consultant the year before, a guy who had never coached before and the coach's son. Who wouldn't wonder about how it would work?

I'm guessing that beyond the fact that so much of what is done has been "institutionalized" through the mult-transitions over the past 20 years; So in the end we find that Bilema is a fine DL coach, Mayo really knows his stuff, and Steve Bellichick is a lot more than just a product of nepotism. So in the end, almost EVERY week our players enter the game with a great understanding of what to expect when they get on the field, as WELL as how to adjust when what they expect isn't what's happening.

That's a given a. nd it's been a huge advantage But the fact is that it is a lot easier to make adjustments and absorb game plans when you've done for 4 years or more at the NFL level. So this edge the Pats usually have has been expanded by their team wide experience.

Smarts - Just going down the line of the 20 odd players who are getting regular snaps on the defensive side of the ball, one constant you seem to hear about all of them is that they are SMAR T. They have high football IQ's. They are coachable. These and other cliches that describe players who are more than their physical components are what is making all we are seeing possible.

Unfortunately the same experience we love is the reason these runs of excellence are so short. A lot of these guys will soon retire. Others will become too expensive. Offenses will eventually catch up. All good things are finite. So is this So enjoy while we can. If you can appreciate good defense, it certainly is a beautiful thing to watch

Interesting, though,if I remember correctly, after that 2001 regular season loss to the Rams Martz told his team they just beat a championship team. He knew then how good the Pats were.
 
Don't we see playoff teams being decided the very last week every year? Isn't the total number of wins what decides the outcome and not when and how the wins come? Start fast, start slow, end fast, end slow, doesn't really matter. It's just all a way to spend the time on a sport with very few games and a lot of time between games I guess.
 
I saw something in the media yesterday that made me go hmmmm. Someone noted that 9 of the 11 starters on the Pats defense are 28 or older. :eek: So when you think about some of the reasons WHY this defense has been historically good you have to conclude that experience is one of them. And its that EXPERIENCE that allows the team to have the great versatility and the ability to communicate within all 3 levels of the defense, AND the ability to recognize what the offense is showing them by their personnel groupings, formations, calls, and motions. And finally the ability to absorb the coaching the different week to week game plans, so that they CAN recognize the things that will give them an edge on any play. Lets break this down further,

Position Flexibility - We see along the DL with Shelton, Guy, Bennett, Butler, Wise, etc, ALL playing 2 or 3 position within the DL. Its even more obvious along with the LB's and DB. But not so much in a guy like Winovich. He plays OLB/edge rusher and that's about it....and rightly so. Perhaps 3 or 4 years down the road he'll be able to do what Hightower and Van Noy do now, but not now. If the defense was made up with 4-6 players with just 1-3 years of experience, "position flexibility" would be a lot less of a factor.

Communication -

Smarts -

I agree completely with this part, not only due to "NFL Football Intelligence" and great Communication. The D has benefited from consistency of players and consistently of coaching... not every team can say that. The defensive philosophy has slowly changed over the past few years, while they have claimed sacks are not as important as holding the edge, sacks seem to fuel the defense and the efforts of individual players that benefits the team.

Experience is not a bad thing, if anything the opposite, it has been said time and time again that BB prepares the team for any eventuality so if they see something they can adjust.. the leadership of Gilmore, McCourty, Hightower and KVN is obvious and quite beneficial. Jamie Collins has really, really grown up and have not seen any freelancing this year. Then mix and match a bunch of mix and match players on the front 7.. Winovich is getting quality playing time, John Simon is a nice surprise on and on..

We have not seen much of the "playground defense" but suspect that is coming when the Pats face a high flying Offense..what we have seen is really good quality defense that has confused the opposing offenses.. the position flexibility and reasonable snaps for the front 7 is impressive as this is not only a long season, but a season where attrition is the norm. Consider percentage of snaps for some of our front 7: Butler (49%), Guy (41%), Shelton (41%), Winovich (31%) and Simon (46%) etc. Among the LB's Collins (78%), KVN (71%), Calhoun (33%) , Roberts (22%), Hightower (52%) and Bentley (38%) . There are very good rotations available and used by the Pats..
 
I still like Mayfield, but he needs much more capable O-line play. He tries to extend plays ala Russell Wilson, but he lacks the quickness to pull it off and makes desperate/poor decisions at the last moment to keep from getting hammered. Given a pocket can be poised and accurate, IMO.
 
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