PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

The Amendola role

Status
Not open for further replies.
I have a feeling that we're going to see a lot of very effective deception out of the Pats offense this season.
Deception only works if you can run your bread and butter plays. Right now I see the Pats having trouble converting 3rd and 6 consistently.
 
I think the idea that we can't rely on the big name guys in the clutch because they'll be double teamed or just have better resources dedicated to defending them is a bit of an overreaction. When healthy, Gronk and Edelman have been by far our best weapons for years now, and they still routinely make big plays, in clutch moments, against all levels of competition. The reason those guys are so good is because it's really, REALLY hard to take them out of every play. We should absolutely still rely on them in big situations.

Where Amendola was so valuable was that he was extremely reliable when his number needed to be called, which is not always easy when that's happening inconsistently. Players like to find a rhythm. If they drop one, it's good to get them another one quickly so they can put it behind them and get back in a groove. Often during his time here, Danny didn't get that chance, and had to make the most of every opportunity. For the vast majority, he was able to do that.

That's not necessarily hard to replace (a guy that can be counted on to win matchups against the 3rd and 4th best defenders in the clutch), but can be hard to PREDICT who will be best suited for that. It's not something that reveals itself in practice or vanilla preseason games usually.
 
It seem to me that Burkhead and (now) Michel have been added to White to enhance the offense's run-pass unpredictability, not simply to "run more".

Burkhead is an unpredictable fit that is for sure. I am never sure if we will be handing off or passing when he's on the field.

Michel could be a three down guy...hopefully...and that would help. In recent seasons, we have not had a three down guy...basically a battering ram AND White.

I do think we need to hand it off more to White on draws. White does seem to pick up 6-7 yards by surprise here and there...a little more of that on the menu please.
 
Burkhead is an unpredictable fit that is for sure. I am never sure if we will be handing off or passing when he's on the field.

Michel could be a three down guy...hopefully...and that would help. In recent seasons, we have not had a three down guy...basically a battering ram AND White.

I do think we need to hand it off more to White on draws. White does seem to pick up 6-7 yards by surprise here and there...a little more of that on the menu please.

My take on BB's comments at the end of 2016 is that he wanted an RBBC of 4 guys who'd be more or less interchangeable in pass-pro, rushing and receiving so that the Pats offense could always disguise intent. The quartet of White, Burkhead, Michel and Hill seems to come pretty close.

A couple of other benefits are (1) that there's no radical change required of the offense of one guy gets injured, and (2) with the run-pass intent rarely being completely clear pre-snap, the aggressiveness of the pass rush maybe be reduced ..... thus, preserving Brady.
 
@maineman209 , yup...all except for Hill.

I am dying to see Michel in action....a part of me is secretly hoping for a "2007 Moss 1st Game" type of performance....
 
@maineman209 , yup...all except for Hill.

I am dying to see Michel in action....a part of me is secretly hoping for a "2007 Moss 1st Game" type of performance....

His first three seasons in the league, Hill averaged 21 receptions for 156 yds. He has some capability there. A lot more than Gillislee or Blount.
 
To flesh out your comps a bit ...

In Elway's case, until Shanny became the HC, the Broncos had rarely had a rushing attack that placed in the top half of the league, and it was often in the bottom 1/3rd. Shanny didn't arbitrarily begin running the ball more. In fact, in his first season as HC, he actually ran the ball less than the Broncos average from the previous four seasons. Instead, he first built a ground game that consistently placed in the top 10, if not top 5 or even best in the league - a dramatic turnaround (mostly due to vastly improved run-blocking) - and then they ended up running the ball more, a lot more.

Sure, that helped the Broncos become more consistently successful in the last four years of Elway's 16-year career. They went from a .500 club to averaging 13 wins and winning back-to-back Superbowls. But it didn't reduce Elway's average pass attempts per game at all.

With Brees, it's bee a little different, but still not directly comparable with Brady's situation.

From 2012 thru 2016, Brees averaged 664 pass attempts per season and his pass attempts averaged 63% of the Saints' offensive plays. Meanwhile, their ground game averaged pretty close to the bottom 1/3rd of the league, almost across the board.

In 2017, the Saints' ground game jumped up to top-5 in the league (1st in rushing TDs) - a very similar dramatic turnaround. And it did reduce Brees' pass attempts (to 536), and the Saints' passing ratio (to 55%). For the one year, so far.

But that didn't merely "preserve the career" of a QB nearing decline. Brees' completion percentage actually increased, his net yards per attempt increased, his sack% decreased and his interception% decreased. But not because the Saints arbitrarily decided to "run more" to help Brees out. They ran more because their ground game had suddenly become dramatically better, just like the Broncos' ground game did under Shanny.

But here's the important comp.

In 2012, Brady made the most passing attempts of his career - 641 - 23 fewer than Brees' average. Oddly, in that same season, Brady's passing attempts accounted for only 55% of all Pats plays on offense - because they also ran the ball more. They had 1164 total offensive plays that season (a record, I think) due to running the hurry-up and no-huddle almost constantly.

So, while Brees' passing attempts averaged 63% of the Saints' offense over an extended period, Brady has never been above 62%, and has only topped 58% twice in 18 seasons: 2002 and 2015 (when the OL and RB corps were both simultaneously decimated by injuries). During the time when the Saints' passing averaged six percentage points above the league average, the Pats' passing averaged one point below the league average.

At the same time, the Pats ground game has been in the top-10 in the league, if not in the top-5, in most categories for all but a couple-three of Brady's 18 seasons (including both "Guge years", as it turns out). IOW, in most seasons, the Pats have already regularly been where the SAINTS JUST GOT TO, in terms of relative ground game effectiveness.

For an opponent-specific game-planning offense, arbitrarily running the ball more to reduce Brady's pass attempts seems insane. UNLESS the Pats somehow make the ground game dramatically better, it simply doesn't work.

So, then,, how do you make a ground game that's already top-10/top-5 in most seasons "dramatically better"?

I could try to joke about how you are "confusing the issue with facts" (although perhaps some wouldn't take that as a joke), but this was a very informative post (particularly the information about New Orleans). Great post.

You've already addressed some of this later, but you improve a ground game that's already top 10/top 5 is by: i) investing a bunch of money and/or draft capital on running backs (last year and this year); ii) investing a bunch of money and/or draft capital on run blocking linemen and TE's; iii) improve the run/pass play call deception with bringing in running backs that can be effective with either pass plays or run plays.

When you mentioned that New Orleans was even more efficient with the passing game when they upgraded the running game, in my mind that is exactly the point. All too often in the last few years the running game would disappear in the most important playoff games and everything was on Brady's shoulders and the other rushers would tee off on him and pound him again and again. And part of the reason the rushing game disappeared was the lack of deception in the play calling: Blount meant a running play (in which the other team could run blitz) and White meant a passing play. Lombardi has explained how this is why the team didn't keep Blount.

Thus, over the last two years the Patriots have brought in a bunch of RB's (Gilleslie, Burkhead, Hill, and now Michael) and devoted significant cap space and draft capital to the RB position, and several of those players promise to be good run or pass options (most notably Michael if he gets healthy, or possible Burkhead who also had injury problems last year). They have devoted a bunch of cap space and draft capital to the offensive line also in Brown, Wynn, the Mason extention, and Allen (I consider Allen more of an OL than a TE).

I think improving the running game and improving the deceptiveness of whether a play is going to be a run or a pass has been a primary focus of the Pats in the last two years. And, it can only help Brady to have a stronger, more deceptive running game, I'm sure it would actually help his passing % and performance.
 
It seem to me that Burkhead and (now) Michel have been added to White to enhance the offense's run-pass unpredictability, not simply to "run more".

Agree completely, but I would argue that if they enhance the offenses run-pass unpredictability that will automatically lead to a more effective running game that can be relied on in big playoff games against top defenses, which would indirectly lead to running more.
 
Agree completely, but I would argue that if they enhance the offenses run-pass unpredictability that will automatically lead to a more effective running game that can be relied on in big playoff games against top defenses, which would indirectly lead to running more.

It's also important that they establish that the running half of that equation is actually a threat, otherwise teams won't respect it anyway.
 
Really wish we could have got Danny "playoff" Amendola that 3rd championship.

Loved that guy!
 
Amendola was a classic possession receiver. We don’t really have that right now, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare.

I think this post deserves a genius icon or a confused icon. What exactly is your point??
 
I think this post deserves a genius icon or a confused icon. What exactly is your point??

I’m supposed to have a point?

We don’t have a possession receiver. We have other good options: backs, TEs.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Former Patriots Super Bowl MVP Set to Announce Pick During Draft
TRANSCRIPT: Mike Vrabel’s Media Statement on Tuesday 4/21
MORSE: What Will the Patriots Do in the Draft?
MORSE: Patriots Prospects and 30 Visits
Patriots News 04-19, Countdown To Draft Day
MORSE: Patriots Mock Draft 6 – A Week Before the Draft
TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/13
Patriots News 04-12, What To Watch For In The NFL Draft
MORSE: Pre-Draft Patriots News and Notes
MORSE: Patriots Mock Draft 5
MORSE: Patriots Mock Draft 5
Mark Morse
2 weeks ago
Back
Top