Steve Serby: How to beat the Pats...Aparently with Fluff

[RobertWeathers]

The ending SUCKS!

Seeing that he dropped back 48 times, he was pressured more than 1/2 the time and hit 1/3 of the time, its a miracle that he still completed 60% of his passes and did not get picked off. It's incredible that he had the game he did. He simply didn't have time to pick apart the defense. Longest play was 19 yards and he averaged less than 6 yards a completion.

Actually he was sacked 5 times...

 

[RobertWeathers]

There's no way that THIS Jets front seven can produce THAT much pressure. It's great to look at what the Giants did to the Pats in 2007(8) but there are two flaws with that:

1. These Jets are not those Giants defensively. They play in the same geographic location, they have "New York" before their team nickname, but that's where the similarities end.
   
   
2. These Pats give Brady more options in total when you consider Branch, Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Tate, etc. It's a different team and in some ways maybe better.

Giants finished 2007 with 52 sacks. Other than the 85 Bears, 77 Cowboys and Steelers teams, you could make the case that they were the greatest pass rushing team in SB history. Strahan, Osi, Tuck. As a DT, Robbins had like 6 sacks. He killed Koppen that game. We also saw BJ Raji do the same thing.

Pressure Brady with 4-5 guys.
Play your safeties deep.
Mix up your coverages & personnel and move alot in pre-snap.

They were perfect in every way.

The NYJ will do some coverage things, but they don't have the personnel to pressure TB w/ just 4-5 guys. They just don't. They need to be perfect in their blitzes down/distance wise.

I don't see it happening.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Once again...this is another golden opportunity for Rex to "Overcoach".

I'm sure the Jets are going to play hard...but in the end, when the Patriots end the Jets season, there is going to be a lot of finger-pointing and it's going to all come down on Rex.

I hope the sports writers and talking-heads are merciless on him. He deserves nothing less.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The one valid point is to expect trick plays- fake punts, fake field goals, flea flickers, some gadget stuff with Brad Johnson if he's healthy, maybe even an onsides kick.

Rex will try to show how smart he is.

If we are prepared, and I'm nearly certain that we will be, those plays become ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS.

 

[Metaphors]

"Change the Defensive Matchup" is my favorite. He just finished saying they'd have to pressure Brady, which means blitzes. Now he wants to double Branch. That means you have the Sam on Hernandez. Or you cheat with the FS. As if Brady can't read that coverage. Good luck with that.

I know. So here is the plan:

Rush 5
Revis on Welker
Coleman+Smith on Branch
Cromartie on Hernandez

So that means you have Pool and a LB left to account for Gronk and Woodhead. More problems:

- Gronk and Woodhead stay in to block and your blitz (5 on 7) doesn't get there. You really want Cromartie having to change direction with Hernandez for 4-5 seconds?

- Cromartie avoids contact and hates to tackle. So putting him on a 245 lb receiver should be a hoot.

- If Revis could take away Welker on his own, why hasn't he done it before? In the last 3 matchups with the Jets, Brady is 28 of 31 for 310 yds and 2 TDs when throwing to Welker.

- A strange thing about the 2-TE set that the Jets may not know about...you can run the ball as well. If you blitz out of the nickel, it is easy to open a crease and get blockers to the spread-out and smaller 2nd level.

This writer makes the same mistake that I hope the Jets make on Sunday. If you line up in straight man coverage, regardless of who is covering who, there will be a mismatch and Brady will find and exploit it. You can't disguise man coverage due to the Pats formation shifts and motion (gotta follow your man).

The only coverage scheme that works against Brady is to show zone but keep the option of jumping into matchup man, zone or a combination after the snap. The Ravens have terrible cover corners but mitigate that by changing up their coverage schemes from snap-to-snap. SD has similar schemes though they don't execute as well as the Ravens. No coincidence that Brady traditionally has difficulties with those teams.

So why don't the Jets follow suit? Personnel, coaching and ego. You need smart players that can act and react as a unit. The Jets like to focus on winning individual matchups. This is reinforced by the coaching staff and their aggressive schemes. Their reaction to being destroyed 45-3? We need to be more aggressive and more physical. That is the ego that prevents them from making fundamental necessary adjustments.

The Jets have enough talent that they can do some of the same things that the Ravens and Chargers do to defend Brady. I don't think they will. If they show up doing the same things and expect different results, it really won't matter who is covering who.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I know. So here is the plan:

Rush 5
Revis on Welker
Coleman+Smith on Branch
Cromartie on Hernandez

So that means you have Pool and a LB left to account for Gronk and Woodhead. More problems:

- Gronk and Woodhead stay in to block and your blitz (5 on 7) doesn't get there. You really want Cromartie having to change direction with Hernandez for 4-5 seconds?

- Cromartie avoids contact and hates to tackle. So putting him on a 245 lb receiver should be a hoot.

- If Revis could take away Welker on his own, why hasn't he done it before? In the last 3 matchups with the Jets, Brady is 28 of 31 for 310 yds and 2 TDs when throwing to Welker.

- A strange thing about the 2-TE set that the Jets may not know about...you can run the ball as well. If you blitz out of the nickel, it is easy to open a crease and get blockers to the spread-out and smaller 2nd level.

This writer makes the same mistake that I hope the Jets make on Sunday. If you line up in straight man coverage, regardless of who is covering who, there will be a mismatch and Brady will find and exploit it. You can't disguise man coverage due to the Pats formation shifts and motion (gotta follow your man).

The only coverage scheme that works against Brady is to show zone but keep the option of jumping into matchup man, zone or a combination after the snap. The Ravens have terrible cover corners but mitigate that by changing up their coverage schemes from snap-to-snap. SD has similar schemes though they don't execute as well as the Ravens. No coincidence that Brady traditionally has difficulties with those teams.

So why don't the Jets follow suit? Personnel, coaching and ego. You need smart players that can act and react as a unit. The Jets like to focus on winning individual matchups. This is reinforced by the coaching staff and their aggressive schemes. Their reaction to being destroyed 45-3? We need to be more aggressive and more physical. That is the ego that prevents them from making fundamental necessary adjustments.

The Jets have enough talent that they can do some of the same things that the Ravens and Chargers do to defend Brady. I don't think they will. If they show up doing the same things and expect different results, it really won't matter who is covering who.

Good post. IMO this is where from a tactical standpoint we won't see a redux of 2007. Crump and Gronk are above average pass & run blockers. The 07 team did not have that caliber of personnel. Brady will get the extra 1/2 second to read the D OR get out of a bad play and have the option to hand off to BJGE or hit Woody in the flat. We've seen this happen 10x times this season.

As it pertains to your post, if the TE release off the line and are now receivers, NYJ has match-up difficulties abound.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

The one valid point is to expect trick plays- fake punts, fake field goals, flea flickers, some gadget stuff with Brad Johnson if he's healthy, maybe even an onsides kick.

Rex will try to show how smart he is.

If we are prepared, and I'm nearly certain that we will be, those plays become ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS.

Agreed...

Trick plays work when the opposing team is completely not expecting or prepared... and it usually requires a position player having to do something they are not normally comfortable with or suited for...and that is why they often backfire....and they rarely work under desperate situations...

No question Bill is going over all this stuff as we speak...The Patriots will definately be ready for anything and everything.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

I just posted other day that Serby & Cannizzaro pick Pats to Win It All & Brady Is MVP of SB & Belichick COY. It's BS! Readin NY Post here is like Star or Enquirer Paper. Its & their a JOKE! I waitin to read what their gonna write when it's 52-0 Monday morning.

 

[Titanium Coate Hanger]

The article only addresses half of the Jets problems....

What are the Jets going to do on offense to score more than 3 points?

It's a really good point. Sanchez is not the kind of QB who has shown he can mount a big comeback and take a team on his back in the 4th quarter. In some ways, I kind of feel for Brian Schottenheimer, he's probably taking a ton of fire for not getting that offense going when he's limited by Shaun King 2.0 ( young QB with a ready now defense and seemingly all the other parts for a really good team)

You can't win a track meet with the Patriots, you just can't do it. In a shootout, the Patriots will simply wear the other team down.

This is where I really feel the turnover battle matters. If you can get turnovers from the Patriots, you've got yourself a chance as the Jets. Get the ball back, limit the number of snaps Brady gets to work with, get hopefully good field position for quick scores/quick strikes, wear out that Patriots defense. Sanchez doesn't have to be all world if the Jets massively win the turnover battle.

The dimension I'd worry about on the Jets is Deion Branch. The guy is like the Mark Lemke of the NFL. Not really a regular season hero, but once it's the post season, the guy has a whole different gear in him. I think Brady really missed this guy and he was the safety valve receiver that is often overlooked but so essential to a team keeping the chains moving ( like Jay Novacek was for Troy Aikman or essentially all of Frank Wycheck's career)

Something to consider is the Jets D line doesn't need to have an out of this world day if the Pats O line has a real lemon of a day. The Giants abused Brady not just because they were so talented, but because the Pats really didn't play well on the line that day.

I know people aren't big fans of the Colts here, but something to consider is the Patriots, stopping them, isn't so far off from like trying to stop the Colts in their prime, another pass heavy offense. Keep the QB off the field and hit him hard. Force them to beat you with the running game. The difference is Manning probably had a bit more talent in skill position players around him and Brady simply is a better crunch time performer. I know thats simplifying it, but I don't know if really is that complicated. People in the media keep talking about the skill positions, this war is going to be fought and won in the trenches.

 

[stinkypete]

I find the "pretty boy" comments funny.

Sanchez is kind of a pretty boy DB himself, isn't he?

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

A lot of the focus has been on our offense...but come sunday, I have a feeling that our defense is going to play great.

It can be said that the Patriots offense has been maintaining thier level of play...But the defensive level of play has been getting better and better all season and are now peaking just in time for the playoffs.

I don't think we'll shut the Jets out on sunday...but I wouldn't be surprised if we did..

 

[DaBronxPats14]

It's a really good point. Sanchez is not the kind of QB who has shown he can mount a big comeback and take a team on his back in the 4th quarter. In some ways, I kind of feel for Brian Schottenheimer, he's probably taking a ton of fire for not getting that offense going when he's limited by Shaun King 2.0 ( young QB with a ready now defense and seemingly all the other parts for a really good team)

You can't win a track meet with the Patriots, you just can't do it. In a shootout, the Patriots will simply wear the other team down.

This is where I really feel the turnover battle matters. If you can get turnovers from the Patriots, you've got yourself a chance as the Jets. Get the ball back, limit the number of snaps Brady gets to work with, get hopefully good field position for quick scores/quick strikes, wear out that Patriots defense. Sanchez doesn't have to be all world if the Jets massively win the turnover battle.

The dimension I'd worry about on the Jets is Deion Branch. The guy is like the Mark Lemke of the NFL. Not really a regular season hero, but once it's the post season, the guy has a whole different gear in him. I think Brady really missed this guy and he was the safety valve receiver that is often overlooked but so essential to a team keeping the chains moving ( like Jay Novacek was for Troy Aikman or essentially all of Frank Wycheck's career)

Something to consider is the Jets D line doesn't need to have an out of this world day if the Pats O line has a real lemon of a day. The Giants abused Brady not just because they were so talented, but because the Pats really didn't play well on the line that day.

I know people aren't big fans of the Colts here, but something to consider is the Patriots, stopping them, isn't so far off from like trying to stop the Colts in their prime, another pass heavy offense. Keep the QB off the field and hit him hard. Force them to beat you with the running game. The difference is Manning probably had a bit more talent in skill position players around him and Brady simply is a better crunch time performer. I know thats simplifying it, but I don't know if really is that complicated. People in the media keep talking about the skill positions, this war is going to be fought and won in the trenches.

There will be NO COMEBACKS this week in Foxboro. I said it before and i'll say it again, JETS & SANCHEZ CANNOT PLAY in Jan weather type conditions in Foxboro. Do you really think with 30-40 MPH winds Sanchez will be effective and if it snows? This is a HUGE intangible not to be minimized. Anyone know what weather for game time in NE as of now?

 

[RobertWeathers]

There will be NO COMEBACKS this week in Foxboro. I said it before and i'll say it again, JETS & SANCHEZ CANNOT PLAY in Jan weather type conditions in Foxboro. Do you really think with 30-40 MPH winds Sanchez will be effective and if it snows? This is a HUGE intangible not to be minimized. Anyone know what weather for game time in NE as of now?

High of 33. Will be low 30s/high 20s at game time.

8 mph winds.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

High of 33. Will be low 30s/high 20s at game time.

8 mph winds.

Thanx Robertweathers hopefully it'll get colder & windier as game goes on but 20's will throw off Sanchez as well.

 

[averywhitehall]

I guess I'll give my opinion on how to beat The Pats. If you all think Steve Serby fell short. Tell me what you guys think.

1. Watch the matuchps & tackle with authority: Majority of the Patriots success came when they were able to match a linebacker/lineman on a speedy RB or WR. With this they were able to get plenty of YAC. Danny Woodhead & Mike Devito = 35 yard gain. Make sure that you hit & hit hard when you do. There were a lot of arm tackling in that last 45-3 game, but I was encouraged to see how they flocked to the ball with attitude and intensity during the Colt game.

2. Blitz your S more than your LB. Two of the Jets 3 sacks during the 35 -3 game from the safety position. James Ihedibo & Eric Smith both got to Brady on a safety blitz. Safety's are faster than LB's and would be more apt to get to the QB than blitzing a David Harris or a Bart Scott. Use those two to cover the short to intermediate completions. Use Cromartie shallow center and Revis deep center.

3. Allow the underneath completions for short gains but prevent the yards after the catch. Too many times, the Patriots receivers got side to side with a Jets CB. Jets DB's have to keep WR in front of them. Perfect example would be the Aaron Hernandez 35 yard completion. Dwight Lowery allowed Hernandez to get next to him in open space. Aaron juked right...went left and was wide-the-hell-open. Need to keep people in front of you and have good timing on your pass breakups.

4. Stop the run!: I can't stress this enough. Part of the success of the Colts game was to force Manning into running plays; running plays which, for the most part, were not successful. If the Patriots become one dimensional, all the better for the Jets.

5. Woodson-ize Revis: When Charles Woodson won DPOY last season...he did so because he did more than just cover the wideout. He blitzed the QB & got sacks, he gambled a lot and got a lot of INT's and Pick 6's. Rex deploys Revis as just a cover corner. If there is ever a point when the QB doesn't look in his direction...that might be a good time to blitz. Rex would be wise to have Revis cover a particular zone of the field rather than blanketing a wideout because of his superior timing and pass defense techniques. It'll be interesting to see how Revis is used.

6. Use 5 down lineman at times. Even in a spread offense use Jason Taylor, Sean Ellis as the ends. Trevor Pryce, Mike Devito, Sione Pouha in the middle. In a 5 on 5 O-Line vs. D-Line battle the Jets will be able to collapse the pocket a lot faster as a result. Use three LB's for the mid to underneath throws, one deep safety and Cro & Revis middle to deep zone areas.

That's what I have for the defense....now how about that offense.

1. Put Santonio Holmes in the slot instead of Cotchery at times. As far as speed is concerned, Santonio has the most on the Jets. He should be used in the slot more often than wide left or wide right. His quick cuts and change of direction would cause a problem for his defender...whomever it may be.

2. Use Shonn Greene in the passing game more often. Shonn Greene is a load to tackle most times. He may not have the wide open speed that LT has...but he will be a tough down for only one defender. Part of the appeal of LT is that he can catch the ball very well and opponents know it. Opponents aren't expecting Shonn Greene to catch a pass ten yards down the field...but that surprise is just what will make it effective.

3. Punt the ball effectively/play field position. Jets punter Steve Weatherford averaged 30 yards per punt in the 45-3 game. Far different than the 39 yards per punt average during the regular season. That's almost a first down right there. The more the Jets punt the ball inside the 15 yard line the better the chances they have.

4. No turnovers!

5. Start to build Sanchez's confidence with short throws early and have the distance of his throws increase during the game. Slants, skinny posts, short in-cuts, and the like should be the choice of operation for the first portion of the game. As the game goes on and Sanchez gets into a rythym...then he should get into the 25+ yard passes in the air.

6. Long, time consuming drives. Peyton Manning had 3 possessions in the 2nd half, and although he scored on all of them they were only FG's. It is imperative to give Brady as few chances as possible.

7. Protect Sanchez. In the last 3 games Sanchez has played (not counting Buffalo) he's only been sacked twice. It is doubtful that the Patriots will be able to get to him without a blitz.

For a team as a whole...there is only on piece of advice I have to give: Withstand the Patriot surge! There will be a quarter in which the Patriots try to get a lot of points. They do this to protect their young defense and have the offense of the opponent be one dimensional. Jets must withstand it and play through it.

I kinda wrote a lot didn't I?