Stat heads explain why Brady's rating isn't tops all time

[FrontSeven]

The answer to the riddle (drum roll) (crossing fingers) is that Brady had one or two games with a much lower rating than Manning's lowest. I believe that each game counts as 1/16 of the rating, so the math that counts each game equally. One bad game counts 1/16 no matter what the totals are.

But more important than that is the venue. I think Tom played in 5 games where the temperature was below 40. Manning might have played in one - or none. Same with Marino.

 

[makewayhomer]

QB Rating is a very flawed stat, the Hidden Game of Football goes into depth about this

 

[RayClay]

http://www.primecomputing.com/formula.htm

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

For Manning
a=(((336/497 *100)-30/20 = (67.60563-30)/20=37.60563/20=1.88028169
b=(49/497) * 100)/5=9.859155/5=1.971831
c=(9.5-((Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((10/497)*100)/4)=(9.5-2.012072)/4=7.487928/4=1.871982
d=(4557/497) -3/4=(9.169014-3)/4=6.169014/4=1.542254

QB =(1.880282+1.911831+1.871982+1.542254)/.06=7.266348/.06=121.1058

For Brady
a=(398/578*100)-30/20=(68.85813-30)/20=38.85813/20=1.942907
b=(50/578)*100/5=8.650519/5=1.730104
c=(9.5-(Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((8/578)*100/4=(9.5-1.384083)/4=8.115917/4=2.028979
d=(4806/578)-3)/4=(8.314879-3)/4=5.3134879/4=1.32872

QB rating=(1.942907+1.730101+2.028979+1.32872)/.06=7.030709/.06=117.1785

When I said "explain" that isn't exactly what i meant. I can read math speak though.

Seriously, it seems to me (not that I care about these "rating systems") that Brady led in all the important categories, but trailed in one that shouldn't even count.

If Brady passed 8 times on 8 attempts on an 80 yard drive then ran it in from the one that would be a net loss in the TD/per pass category, no?

He's increased his number of attempts by 8 while TDs remain constant.

Why should the QB be penalized by making the smart move by running?

 

[RayClay]

The answer to the riddle (drum roll) (crossing fingers) is that Brady had one or two games with a much lower rating than Manning's lowest. I believe that each game counts as 1/16 of the rating, so the math that counts each game equally. One bad game counts 1/16 no matter what the totals are.

But more important than that is the venue. I think Tom played in 5 games where the temperature was below 40. Manning might have played in one - or none. Same with Marino.

Looks like the TD/Attempt ratio, according to what Miguel posted.

EDIT my bad, this too.

Looks like yards per attempt and TDs per attempt were the two variables that gave Manning a better QB rating that Brady.

At least yards per attempt is a reasonable category. Seems to me interception ratio and completion should be weighted higher.

Glad to see Peyton getting rewarded for all those one yard TD passes, though, they're so important.

 

[fillylabinga]

On this point I am going to say, BS!

The last time I saw anything it was that Steve Young had the career passer rating mark. There is no way that Brad Johnson was more efficient with the ball than Young. In fact it is my guess that Johnson is not even top 10.

So I went and looked it up.
1- Steve Young 96.81
2-Peyton Manning 94.37

8- Tom Brady 88.36

these are before the stats for 2007 get factored in, So Brady would move up.
And here is a shocker, Brad Johnson is not eve in the top 20
:bricks:

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/story.jsp?story_id=2355

Erdoboy

ESPN has Brady's career passer rating at 92.9 including 2007. That would put him in 4th place just above Joe Montana.

BTW, interesting list. If you need any more evidence that NFL officiating and offensive strategies have been changed in recent years to favor passing game and hence recent passing statistics just take a look at the following list:

1 Steve Young* 96.81
2 Peyton Manning 94.37
3 Kurt Warner 93.77
4 Joe Montana* 92.26
5 Marc Bulger 91.26
6 Daunte Culpepper 90.75
7 Chad Pennington 89.32
8 Tom Brady 88.36
9 Drew Brees 87.54
10 Trent Green 87.48
11 Jeff Garcia 86.43
12 Dan Marino* 86.38
13 Donovan McNabb 85.19
14 Matt Hasselbeck 85.10
15 Brett Favre 85.05
16 Rich Gannon 84.71
17 Brian Griese 84.54
18 Jim Kelly* 84.39
19 Mark Brunell 84.21
20 Jake Delhomme 84.05

Bulger? Trent Green? Brian Griese? Jeeze... Brady's in pretty elite company, huh?

 

[makewayhomer]

Looks like the TD/Attempt ratio, according to what Miguel posted.

EDIT my bad, this too.



At least yards per attempt is a reasonable category. Seems to me interception ratio and completion should be weighted higher.

Glad to see Peyton getting rewarded for all those one yard TD passes, though, they're so important.

Y/A is very important. but, not all interceptions are created equal. a Hail Mary at the end of the game is basically meaningless (or more accurately, the QB chucks it up, then it's really out of his hands what happens next, assuming he threw it to the general spot he intended).

an INT on 3rd and 1 on either goalline hurts your team much more than a Hail Mary int, which had very little chance of succeeding and which the QB only controls to a small degree. the 3rd and short INT kills you though, both b/c of field position and the fact that you should convert your 3rd and 1's most of the time.

or another example - say it's 3rd and 25. Brady throws a 50 yard bomb to Moss, but it's picked off, and Moss immediately tackles the defender. this is no worse than a punt - actually it's a pretty good punt! but the QB gets penalized for the INT, even though giving Moss a chance might have been the best available option

also, QB rating, like most stats, doesn't consider weather at all. it's well known in the sabr community that in baseball Park Adjustments should be made to stats (ie it's much easier to hit a HR in Colorado than in Dodger Stadium, but traditional stats dont reflect this), but nobody has really figured out a weather translation in football yet.

 

[NEPatriot]

NFL season is not over because we have 3 more games to play. Brady can certainly improve his record.

 

[makewayhomer]

NFL season is not over because we have 3 more games to play. Brady can certainly improve his record.

official records are regular season only (excpet for "playoff records")

 

[hambone1818]

I didn't see this posted so I figured I'd give everyone the updated career passer rating list (from pro-football-reference.com; great site with tons of stats, leaderboards, etc):

1. Steve Young - 96.8
2. Peyton Manning - 94.7
3. Kurt Warner - 93.2
4. Tom Brady - 92.9
5. Ben Roethlisberger - 92.5
6. Joe Montana - 92.3
7. Carson Palmer - 90.1
8. Daunte Culpepper - 89.9
9. Chad Pennington - 88.9
10. Marc Bulger - 88.1

I believe Brady now has the highest passer rating through 8 seasons ever, though Roethlisberger now has the highest rating through 4 seasons and he's only 25. That said, if Brady keeps putting up ratings in the 117 neighborhood (and he very well might with Welker around for a while and--hopefully--Moss here for a few more seasons) he'll exclipse Young's mark in another few seasons and leave Roethlisberger and Manning in his dust.


***Not like any of this matters, though...wins, wins and more wins, and we've all seen that Brady knows a little something about that statistic as well.

 

[pats-blue]

You can call BS on me...and you may be right. Maybe I'm thinking of the wrong statistic I had read 6 years ago (not 3...I remember it was in an article about a rookie QB named Brady)...or you may be wrong, and as Brad Johnson has gotten older, his ineptitude has caused his career passer rating to plummet. He was starting games as recently as last year.

I think my memory is correct, even if my feeble mind mis-remembered the "when". Johnson's career stats linked:

http://www.nfl.com/players/bradjohnson/profile?id=JOH322990

You may be thinking about some stat they throw out there like highest 4th quarter rating or something else they throw out once in awhile.

Looking at the Johnsons stats you provided he never had a single year as high as Steve Youngs average. So I am pretty sure he never led the NFL in career rating. Add to the fact that he had quite a few years with ratings in the 70's earlier.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Passer rating is useful to see who has a high or low score. You don't have a 100+ rating in a bad year or <75 in a good year. It is pretty much useless for comparing guys within 5-10 points of each other.

It still uses averages from the 70s as a standard. They don't even bother to update it. Yet people have no issue with passer rating while running for the hills if someone mentions VORP, WARP3, WHIP, OPS+, or whatever in a baseball conversation.