Someone tell me why Mayo and Crable are going to buck the Pats LB trend

[JoeSixPat]

The title of this thread is "Someone tell me why Mayo and Crable are going to buck the Pats LB trend," how does that not imply that you don't believe Mayo or Crable will be capable of playing for Belichick? You presented the negative and asked it to be disproved. As has already been said, well, if Belichick drafted them, then he very obviously feels they are capable of doing what he wants them to do. Is that not right? If you agree it is, then you've wasted everyone's time with a pointless thread because they have already "bucked" the goddamn "trend."

No one has any problems with you attempting to determine why the Patriots haven't drafted LBs in the past - although some see it pretty clearly that it was because the other players on the board were ranked higher- it's that you are making a limited and very broad determination (he didn't think rookies could play in his system) when the judgment should be more narrow (he didn't think those rookies were more valuable than the players he decided to draft). Just because he passed over LBs then does not mean he didn't see any LBs that were capable of playing in the system, all it means is that he didn't think those players had as much value as the ones he did draft.

Beisel is an instance of when Belichick failed in bringing in a veteran linebacker. Ryan Claridge is also an example of a failed linebacker acquisition. The two have no bearing on the situations of Mayo or Crable, other than that they show Belichick could have made a mistake with either one of the two. Surprise, surprise, Belichick is fallible. As I've already said:

There is an obvious showing of faith in the selections of Crable and Mayo because of where they were selected. Belichick values them more than he did the others, dare I say he coveted them in a way that is not evident with either Beisel or Claridge. That sort of pursuit is closer to LBs Colvin and Thomas, who Belichick was not wrong about. I'm confident in his confidence (as you should be as well, in my opinion).

In case you don't read the Boston Globe you might want to check out this story:

http://www.boston.com/sports/footba.../03/rookies_get_surprise_pep_talk_1209798720/

For those of you who think I'm a hater just because I know its going to be a tall order for the rookies to quickly adjust and learn the system, you can see that I'm not just making this stuff up.

Certainly Belichick felt they had the best shot of picking up the system and fitting in - duh! Why would he NOT do that.

Big adjustment

First-round pick Jerod Mayo, who played both inside linebacker spots during the practices, acknowledged the Patriots' defensive scheme is more complex than what he's used to.

"There definitely is [a lot more to learn]," he said. "There are a lot of adjustments. It's a very complex system, so I just have to go to meetings every day and get better."

Mayo added, "It is complicated, but I'm willing to learn everything that I need to know to get on the field, and the coaches do an excellent job teaching."

To me this comment is a VERY good sign however, that Mayo is smart enough to know what a challenge this is and just how much more challenging the adjustment to the Patriots is, even more so than an adjustment to just the NFL.

 

[bradmahn]

In case you don't read the Boston Globe you might want to check out this story:

http://www.boston.com/sports/footba.../03/rookies_get_surprise_pep_talk_1209798720/

For those of you who think I'm a hater just because I know its going to be a tall order for the rookies to quickly adjust and learn the system, you can see that I'm not just making this stuff up.

Certainly Belichick felt they had the best shot of picking up the system and fitting in - duh! Why would he NOT do that.



To me this comment is a VERY good sign however, that Mayo is smart enough to know what a challenge this is and just how much more challenging the adjustment to the Patriots is, even more so than an adjustment to just the NFL.

No **** it's going to be challenging, but your premise works under the assumption that previously Belichick had believed no rookies could come in and learn how to play in his system because he hadn't drafted anyone before the fifth round. That is an assumption on your part that was made with specious evidence to support it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

No **** it's going to be challenging, but your premise works under the assumption that previously Belichick had believed no rookies could come in and learn how to play in his system because he hadn't drafted anyone before the fifth round. That is an assumption on your part that was made with specious evidence to support it.

Yes - we've been over that before.

Some people believe that it's just a coincidence that Belichick has never before, in 8 years of drafting for the Patriots, ever drafted an LB with anything higher than a sixth round pick... and that there is no way that type of long and established track record has anything to do with the fact that he operates one of the most complex defenses in the game.

Some people believe that Belichick's decision never to use anything higher than a sixth round draft pick is NOT a coincidence - and that he understood that the adjustment for rookies, plus his complicated defense for LBs to learn likely had something to do with his draft strategy.

I'm fine with you believing its just a coincidence. But I don't consider 8 years of Belichick draft history combined with the fact that the Defense is very complicated for LBs, and rookie LBs to learn as "specious evidence".

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

So can someone tell me why, once the euphoria from draft weekend dies down, that I should expect Mayo and Crable to do what Belichick never felt rookie LBs were able to do in the past and step right in and contribute? (or the first ones that BB even felt were a worthy investment for the future?)

The drafting of Crable and Ruud were a surprise. Crable had the right measurables, but descriptions of him did not suggest the mental make-up I was expecting to read about in a Pats draftee. Ruud's measurables and performance weren't so out of character, but there were a number of other players remaining whom I would have projected well before him. It has been noted that Mike Reiss reported the Pats were upset when Philly drafted Stewart Bradley in the third round last season, so they apparently had an interest in LB that early. Which argues that the Crable pick may not have been that out of character. Ruud is more of a tryout pick in the 6th round, he appears to have the frame to gain the weight needed for a Pats' LB.

Mayo wasn't a surprise. The write-ups I read indicated a player who had some of the same strengths and weaknesses of last year's drool inducing Patrick Willis. Mayo was reportedly much better in coverage than Willis and with less experience, in college and at MLB, was showing the kind of in-season improvement you want to see. He also arguably had more versatility then Willis after playing outside and inside for Tennessee. I suspect BB might have taken a similar player if one had been available in the first round when the Pats picked before - arguments that last year's draftee David Harris (taken in the second round by the Jesters), was passed over ignore Mayo's greater measurables and versatility when compared to Harris on paper - we'll see how Mayo measures up on the field.

 

[Mike the Brit]

It's sad that folks look unimaginitavely at past actions and then assert that BB will simply continue to do precisely what he'd done in the past. There are several reasons not to do so. First, the NFL environment evolves, the prior comments on the prevalence of 3-4 Ds and the value chart change for 'small' DEs is just one specific example. Remember last year when our late round OLB developmental prospect couldn't make it to the PS without Dallas scooping him up? Secondly, excellent managers evolve and change as well. BB has shown that he continually adapts his tactics as the NFL changes. Good managers look at the past to study what did and didn't work and then factor in the changing future and make adjustments where necessary to ensure that they're competitive.

BB is not doomed to repeat a Monty Beisel/Chad Brown scenario any more that a 7th round pick like Cassie is destined to be the next Tom Brady.

I think that the important points have been made.

(1) Although BB has picked some line-backers in the past, it hasn't been with high picks. Partly, I think that this was because of a conviction that the players the Patriots needed as line-backers were playing DE in college and that a high pick was too risky to spend on a "conversion project" and partly because they didn't think that they needed to -- college defensive ends too small to play that position in the NFL would be available in the late rounds or even as free agent.

This has changed a lot, given not just the increasing number of 3-4 systems but also the way in which many 4-3 systems place an emphasis on having fast defensive ends.

(2) As PWP says, the Pats have recently lost players from their practice squad. This puts them in an awkward position because they have been committed to keeping players on the roster as special teams players who have no foreseeable future as defensive starters.

I agree with PWP that it looks like they've learned the lessons of those experiences.

 

[Triple-T]

I think you are asking a question based on one key assumption and that is that Belichick reached a bit early on in this draft, because he was trying to draft by need to fill LB spots. I don't think that he did exactly that, but let me lay out my thinking on it. My understanding of how Belichick drafts is not explicitly driven by need, but there is most certainly a need component. He is looking at his current players and making judgement calls on where each draftable player could fit into the roster; that includes starters and backups.

Let's use our DL in this draft as an example. Our DL is pretty stacked. I doubt Bill thought anyone he could draft would beat out his top 4 rotation (Warren, wilfork, seymour and green), so spending any pick of high value (1-4) made no sense. In the 5-7 range, he may have been contemplating upgrading wright, smith, thomas, etc, but again, the value of the pick would need to make sense. At the end of the day, he probably made a call that no draftable player would beat out any one on his current players given where he would have had to draft the player. If Ellis or Dorsey dropped into the second round, he would have had to have drafted them based on value, but they didn't, so it was a moot issue.

Start applying that logic across all positions and you see how the draft came together. LB and CB had huge opportunities for a draftee to make the team and potentially be starters, so spending early picks made imminent sense. A 3rd round pick to upgrade back-up QB also made total sense.

So back to the question of LBs in this draft compared to historical. If you go back over the years of the pats and look at their linebackers, you'll see that Belichick was probably fairly pleased with who he had on the team going into the draft.

2001 - McGinest, Vrabel, Phifer, Johnson, Bruschi
2002 - McGinest, Vrabel, Phifer, Johnson, Bruschi
2003 - McGinest, Vrabel, Phifer, Johnson, Bruschi, Colvin
2004 - McGinest, Vrabel, Phifer, Johnson, Bruschi, *Colvin
2005 - McGinest, Vrabel, **Johnson, *Bruschi, Colvin (spends a 5th on Claridge)
2006 - Vrabel, Bruschi, Colvin, Banta-Cain, Beisel, Brown
2007 - Vrabel, Bruschi, Seau, Colvin, Thomas
2008 - Vrabel, Bruschi, Thomas, Woods

* injured and questionable how much they would contribute.
** Johnson's retirement had not happened yet.

Of those years, I think 2006 stands out as a glaring sore spot of where a high pick LB would have been of immense value. (An argument could be made for 2005 too, but I think I've written enough.) All the other years, the starters were probably considered pretty darn solid.

Looking at the 2006 draft class, I think the picks that were made were considered of extremely high value. Maroney, Jackson, Dave Thomas all looked very good at their spots at that time and at positions of need for the team. Gost and O'Callaghan also looked like good values. The only player who sticks out is Mills, but his college production was huge regardless of what he has been able to do in the pros. However, looking at the LBs taken after Mills, not a single one looks like they've done anything at all. So the only conclusion you should be able to reach is that Belichick was open to a higher pick LB, but no one of value was available when he picked. The draft just didn't fall in a way that made sense to ever grab a LB.

Looking at the rest of the LBs in 2006, D'Qwell Jackson was taken 34th and while he looks like he's been decent, he's 6'0"/240. Not a pats LB. Thomas Howard went right after him, but again, not quite the right size for the Pats. Other than that, I don't see any LB making any difference in the league. The only LB the pats had a shot at who seemed to fit was Lawson. Bill grabbed Maroney instead. I like the call he made.

So, this was the first time Bill had both the desire to spend a top pick and prospects available that fit. Given the Pats' performance on 1st round picks, Mayo is almost guaranteed to "buck the trend". Crable is still a bit of a project, but it's nice to grab serious physical talent in the 3rd.

 

[castlelong1]

We'll blow a couple of teams out this year, but not nearly as many as last year. Brady is going to see pressure this season... that has not been seen before (for him anyway).

If the opposing team has the talent to pull it off. We are talking about KC and the Bills.

 

[castlelong1]

He's never had picks this high without another pressing need. There is a difference between 7 and 32 Or even as some believe about Mayo, 15 and 32.

Yes he had high draft picks before,but needed something else real bad.

Castlelong1,

Since your extremely rational post was roundly ignored it should be obvious what your error was.

I think the OP is an idiot who should be castrated. Same thing for the Pats Lifer tool.

Being nice got ignored so FU all.

 

[Water Boy]

this year we were finally in the position to draft higher rated linebacker that we coveted. usually they were gone when we picked in the late 20's and 30's.

How about David Harris?

 

[Lockdown06]

How about David Harris?

Belichick clearly valued extra picks over David Harris

considering that that trade netted us:
Jerod Mayo (via san fran's pick)
Shawn Crable (via new orlean's pick when we traded down)
+ either Randy Moss or Kareem Brown with the 4th rounder we got from san fran last year (big deal if it was moss, not so great if it was brown)

and it gave us the flexibility to trade with San Diego, setting us up with two second round picks next year

David Harris looks like he'll turn out to be a good player, but i really think we made out like bandits on that trade.

 

[FarScapeR]

A lot of us pats fans are whiny *****es, one of the luxuries of being a fan of this decade's patriots.

The question that started this thread is a very valid one, especially noting that Eric Alexander is still a backup and Banta Cain not starting his last game for NE.

I think the things that make Mayo so attractive to BB are his speed, smarts, versatility, athleticism and coverage ability.

But the one thing I read in this thread that made me think about this rookie issue was the post about the impact of the defensive radio headset on the rookies' play this season. It can only make them better on the field, but hopefully there isn't going to be a dependability issue.

 

[JoeSixPat]

A lot of us pats fans are whiny *****es, one of the luxuries of being a fan of this decade's patriots.

The question that started this thread is a very valid one, especially noting that Eric Alexander is still a backup and Banta Cain not starting his last game for NE.

I think the things that make Mayo so attractive to BB are his speed, smarts, versatility, athleticism and coverage ability.

But the one thing I read in this thread that made me think about this rookie issue was the post about the impact of the defensive radio headset on the rookies' play this season. It can only make them better on the field, but hopefully there isn't going to be a dependability issue.

No kidding. Used to be you could raise a valid football point without everyone getting so defensive. Now it seems like some fans think the players sh!t doesn't smell.

It's not like the notion that the Patriots defense is a hard one for many LBs to pick up is an insult to Belichick or an insult to players. Yet that's exactly how some fans look at it, even though they should be looking at that as a compliment to Belichick and the players we have.

Common sense says that if its hard for veterans its that much harder for rookies - and common sense also says that's probably why Belichick has so rarely used draft picks on LBs. I mean after about 8 years you begin to pick up on these trends.

Yet raise that point and you'll have a bevvy of fans who seem to take the game way too personally to see the forsest through the trees who have no desire to dig deeper into football analysis than "Belichick did it so it must be good."

The early reports for Mayo in particular all look good - most especially since he clearly knows the challenge, along with the opportunity before him, recognizing just how complex Belichick's defense is and eating his humble pie early.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think that the Patriots have always worked their high draft picks intothe lineup as the year progresses. I do not think they will start day one.

Mayo will spell Bruschi or he will play with Bruschi as Tedy slides over to SILB.

I do not think Crabel will see much action this year, except in spots. Why? because I fully beleive that BB cut Rosey because he plans to start Pierre Woods. Pierre has had two years of experience, and was the best special teamer even with Larry izzo there. Plus BB weaa adamant in his praise of Woods this draft cycle. Don't you remeber him calling ourt a writer? he said Woods was a potential First round pick off his Sophomore and Junior years, until he was misused by the Michigan staff. The fact that BB went after him as FA, and that he made the team, and now stars as a ST player, ought to make you aware of what BB's opinion is of Wood's talents.

He has the size 6'5", and weight 250#, and speed 4.6, to compete, at WOLB, the position that Rosey previosuly held. He has been groomed and is ready. He wil share that spot with Hobson, in a rotation.

Crabel is rookie who needs a year to beef up, and learn the job. Crabel is positioned to be a SOLB, the position that Vrabel occupies. Obviously he won't displace Vrabel but may occasionally give Vrabel a blow. H eseesmto excell agasint the wide run, a requisite fro setting th edge at SOLB.

I think Brsuchi and AD but occasionlaly Mayo and Seau will man the inside. AD could move outside on passing third downs, sitting Woods.

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

No kidding. Used to be you could raise a valid football point without everyone getting so defensive. Now it seems like some fans think the players sh!t doesn't smell.

It's not like the notion that the Patriots defense is a hard one for many LBs to pick up is an insult to Belichick or an insult to players. Yet that's exactly how some fans look at it, even though they should be looking at that as a compliment to Belichick and the players we have.

Common sense says that if its hard for veterans its that much harder for rookies - and common sense also says that's probably why Belichick has so rarely used draft picks on LBs. I mean after about 8 years you begin to pick up on these trends.

Yet raise that point and you'll have a bevvy of fans who seem to take the game way too personally to see the forsest through the trees who have no desire to dig deeper into football analysis than "Belichick did it so it must be good."

The early reports for Mayo in particular all look good - most especially since he clearly knows the challenge, along with the opportunity before him, recognizing just how complex Belichick's defense is and eating his humble pie early.

Dude:

It seems that you are just looking for a fight. Why?

As far as who takes the game (and even posts here) WAAAAAAYYYY too personally: Go look in a mirror, man.

Ten points for the use of bevy, though...I personally would have used myriad or plethora (twenty points each), there... but you've got to love those SAT synonyms... if you can ever squeeze zephyr in... it's 50 points!

 

[JoeSixPat]

Dude:

It seems that you are just looking for a fight. Why?

As far as who takes the game (and even posts here) WAAAAAAYYYY too personally: Go look in a mirror, man.

Ten points for the use of bevy, though...I personally would have used myriad or plethora (twenty points each), there... but you've got to love those SAT synonyms... if you can ever squeeze zephyr in... it's 50 points!

Looking for a fight? No, but it sure would be nice if some people could take a break from drinking Kool-Aid and recognize that the question raised in this thread is a valid one.

At one point, this was a forum where we could discuss what the coach or offensive coordinator was doing well but more importantly where they could improve and you'd have a great, in depth, analytical discussion.

Now its bad enough that the default mindset seems to be -"if Belichick did it, it must be ok", but worse yet, people actually get MAD if you raise a valid question about the challenges of a rookie LB to learn a complicated system.

I can also tell you from experience - do NOT under any circumstances question whether McDaniels has any faults when it comes to playcalling. Discussing the decisions of coaches and coordinators is a no-no if you want to avoid "a fight" as some might call it.

I don't exactly take that personally - but I do see a strong and growing element of Patsfans members who lash out at anyone who doesn't fall in with the "anything they do must be good and how dare you question otherwise" mentality.

And THAT'S not good for this forum.

 

[Deus Irae]

Looking for a fight? No, but it sure would be nice if some people could take a break from drinking Kool-Aid and recognize that the question raised in this thread is a valid one.

At one point, this was a forum where we could discuss what the coach or offensive coordinator was doing well but more importantly where they could improve and you'd have a great, in depth, analytical discussion.

Now its bad enough that the default mindset seems to be -"if Belichick did it, it must be ok", but worse yet, people actually get MAD if you raise a valid question about the challenges of a rookie LB to learn a complicated system.

I can also tell you from experience - do NOT under any circumstances question whether McDaniels has any faults when it comes to playcalling. Discussing the decisions of coaches and coordinators is a no-no if you want to avoid "a fight" as some might call it.

I don't exactly take that personally - but I do see a strong and growing element of Patsfans members who lash out at anyone who doesn't fall in with the "anything they do must be good and how dare you question otherwise" mentality.

And THAT'S not good for this forum.

How is anything you complain about in this post any worse than your repeated posting of a factually wrong argument about how the receivers were used? You somehow think it's alright to constantly attack the offensive coordinator for something that's not even valid according to your own defined argument, and that's supposed to be good for this forum?

 

[PatsFan37]

I think that the Patriots have always worked their high draft picks intothe lineup as the year progresses. I do not think they will start day one.

Mayo will spell Bruschi or he will play with Bruschi as Tedy slides over to SILB.

I do not think Crabel will see much action this year, except in spots. Why? because I fully beleive that BB cut Rosey because he plans to start Pierre Woods. Pierre has had two years of experience, and was the best special teamer even with Larry izzo there. Plus BB weaa adamant in his praise of Woods this draft cycle. Don't you remeber him calling ourt a writer? he said Woods was a potential First round pick off his Sophomore and Junior years, until he was misused by the Michigan staff. The fact that BB went after him as FA, and that he made the team, and now stars as a ST player, ought to make you aware of what BB's opinion is of Wood's talents.

He has the size 6'5", and weight 250#, and speed 4.6, to compete, at WOLB, the position that Rosey previosuly held. He has been groomed and is ready. He wil share that spot with Hobson, in a rotation.

Crabel is rookie who needs a year to beef up, and learn the job. Crabel is positioned to be a SOLB, the position that Vrabel occupies. Obviously he won't displace Vrabel but may occasionally give Vrabel a blow. H eseesmto excell agasint the wide run, a requisite fro setting th edge at SOLB.

I think Brsuchi and AD but occasionlaly Mayo and Seau will man the inside. AD could move outside on passing third downs, sitting Woods.

Feeling ignored during the pissing match? Funny because you made a few comments that should have raised the ire of more than a few posters here.

Hobson in the OLB rotation? I think there's a chance of that, but a lot of posters would disagree. My sense is he'll take snaps at both ILB and OLB during TC, with the focus on ILB. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see him more than a few times in the regular season lined up at WOLB with AD at WILB on teams that can't match up at C and LG. With Seymour healthy, that's one heck of an inside rush and all Hobson has to do is tie up the LT and watch for the screen.

Personally, I'm thrilled with the Hobson signing and I think he'll have something of a Morris / Welker effect, surprising people with his performance as a starter. They scouted this guy carefully and I'm looking forward to a pleasant surprise. He won't keep Mayo off the field, but I'd be surprised if his presence at either ILB (moving AD to OLB) or at OLB won't effectively keep Woods and Crable off the field.

 

[BionicPatriot]

I think that the Patriots have always worked their high draft picks intothe lineup as the year progresses. I do not think they will start day one.

Mayo will spell Bruschi or he will play with Bruschi as Tedy slides over to SILB.

I do not think Crabel will see much action this year, except in spots. Why? because I fully beleive that BB cut Rosey because he plans to start Pierre Woods. Pierre has had two years of experience, and was the best special teamer even with Larry izzo there. Plus BB weaa adamant in his praise of Woods this draft cycle. Don't you remeber him calling ourt a writer? he said Woods was a potential First round pick off his Sophomore and Junior years, until he was misused by the Michigan staff. The fact that BB went after him as FA, and that he made the team, and now stars as a ST player, ought to make you aware of what BB's opinion is of Wood's talents.

He has the size 6'5", and weight 250#, and speed 4.6, to compete, at WOLB, the position that Rosey previosuly held. He has been groomed and is ready. He wil share that spot with Hobson, in a rotation.

Crabel is rookie who needs a year to beef up, and learn the job. Crabel is positioned to be a SOLB, the position that Vrabel occupies. Obviously he won't displace Vrabel but may occasionally give Vrabel a blow. H eseesmto excell agasint the wide run, a requisite fro setting th edge at SOLB.

I think Brsuchi and AD but occasionlaly Mayo and Seau will man the inside. AD could move outside on passing third downs, sitting Woods.

I doubt he'll strat, more like switch in/out wtith Vrabel. I hope your right, because right now the depth still isn't great because none of our back ups have proved anything. So if a starter goes down, it'll be tough. I'd love to see Woods become what everyone thinks he can, having a young fresh OLB, Vrabel and ADT coming off the edge would be what this D needs.

 

[Kontradiction]

If the opposing team has the talent to pull it off. We are talking about KC and the Bills.

LOL, it was really more of a joke on the Singletary/'85 Bears America's Game commercial that airs once every two minutes on NFL Network.

 

[JoeSixPat]

How is anything you complain about in this post any worse than your repeated posting of a factually wrong argument about how the receivers were used? You somehow think it's alright to constantly attack the offensive coordinator for something that's not even valid according to your own defined argument, and that's supposed to be good for this forum?

I thought we resolved that, didn't we?

You agreed - actually came right out and stated - that Stallworth was NOT used as a deep threat, and nor was anyone else deemed a deep threat besides Moss.

The question is whether McDaniels couldn't or wouldn't use Stallworth as a deep threat WR.

If it's "couldn't" then the lack of use of Stallworth deep is understandable. If it's "wouldn't" - well then the question remains, why wouldn't an OC use a proven deep threat when an alternative to Moss would have been a help in many ways?

I don't have the answer to the "couldn't or wouldn't" yet and admit it.

Others feel that they DO have the answer - and the answer is Stallworth, despite his previously proven skills - is NOT a viable deep threat option. Therefore McDaniels couldn't use Stallworth deep and is above criticism, and as such they get very angry should anyone actually consider this question far from closed.

Personally, I think its a better practice around here for people to keep an open mind than to make up their minds before all the information is in - but that's just me.

In any event I believe there is an active thread regarding the "status quo" of the offense and suggest you make related remarks there.