Revis Contract Prediction that I hope will not come true

[AzorianPats]

I'd easily give Revis a 2-3 year deal for $14-15M a season.

 

[Oswlek]

Not every other team backloads the contracts. Where is this history? Is it with Mankins? Wilfork? Mayo? Gronk?

Brady is the obvious one, but Gronk and Ahern's contracts seemed largely "real" to me. I don't consider a contract that increases but stays reasonable to be "backloaded", that is a term for deals with phony years tacked on.

As for other teams, how many contracts out there resemble Tom's? How many teams' highest paid player has no phony years? Even if you can find one or two comparable that still means the majority of teams vying for Revis are on a level playing field with the Patriots. IMO, for the original premise to be concerning, you'd have to demonstrate that the majority of teams handle the back end of their contracts more player-friendly than NE does. Or at least a large minority.

You're the expert, so I'll gladly defer to you if that can be demonstrated, but it doesn't jibe with the limited data I have collected over the years.

If the Bucs had backloaded their Revis deal instead of using a pay as you do structure they would have never have released him since the dead money would have too great. Using a pay as you go structure allowed them to release Revis with having a dead money hit in 2014. Should have mentioned that as well

Yes, and that deal was completely out of the norm for the league and for the Bucs, which is why it was so noteworthy at the time.

 

[Oswlek]

Tell that to Seymour, Moss, Mankins, Mayo, Amendola, and Gronk. To say that the Patriots have largely avoid giving backloaded contracts is to ignore the history.

We are definitely having a semantic disconnect if you are including guys like Moss and Mankins into the backloading conversation. NE was more than happy to have Moss around for his final year until he had a mental breakdown. Mankins' $6mm salary was also perfectly reasonable if he had still be playing at his 2010 (or even 2011) level. The problem was less that his salary was out of whack and more that his play had fallen off precipitously.

The difference in our viewpoint is coming into focus, but now the initial concern makes even less sense to me. If all you mean by "backloading" is "incorporating the bonus into the salary structure of the first couple years and having the latter years be higher, but still doable barring a significant drop off in performance" then that seems to be the MO for most NFL contracts. I guess my question is still how is NE's standard contract structure more backloaded than the majority of other teams?

If there is something I'm missing, lay it on me! I'm all for learning something new.

 

[mayoclinic]

An interesting discussion on SI.com with Tony Richardson, who used to be on the Jets with Revis:

http://www.si.com/nfl/video/2015/01/14/darrelle-revis-stay-patriots

 

[Miguel]

Yes, and that deal was completely out of the norm for the league and for the Bucs, which is why it was so noteworthy at the time.

Not out of the norm for the Bucs. See http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/tampa-bay-buccaneers
Look at how few players on the Bucs have a number in the prorated signing bonus column.
See Gerald McCoy's contract. His cap number actually decreases from 2015 to 2021.

 

[patman52]

The patriots are going to have to pony up and have close to the best offer on the table. I can see a 10% at most discount. If his agent believes a team out there has a 4 years and 56 mill and 28 up front deal that it was the pats will have to offer. Revis is no lifelong Pat and I see his career ending the same way Sanders did, going from team to team for the best deal.

 

[Oswlek]

Not out of the norm for the Bucs. See http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/tampa-bay-buccaneers
Look at how few players on the Bucs have a number in the prorated signing bonus column.
See Gerald McCoy's contract. His cap number actually decreases from 2015 to 2021.

Cool. Thanks.

 

[patfanken]

I really believe the Pats will pay within 10% of the top offer out there when all is said and done. Just how the deal will be structured is strictly supposition. Miguel has given us several reasonable prototypes. But here is what I feel pretty strongly will happen. Forget about the initial announcement, regardless of how this deal is reported, the reality is it will be a 3 year deal. Anything longer was just a device to spread the initial money out longer. I don't see ANYONE willing to pay elite money a 34 or 35 year old CB. I don't doubt in 3 years Revis is still going to be a top 10-15 CB, but its very unlikely he will be one worth 14-16MM/yr

So I would gladly give Revis a 5 year deal that pays him top money or within 10% of top money for 3 years and about half that (which will still be a LOT of money) to use that glorious mind as a S to close out his career. I think having those 5 years will allow the Pats to be competitive in the up front money, and create the maneuvering room to create a deal the makes sense both in the long and short run

Then, he can retire as a Patriot and go into the HOF as a PATRIOT. (with multiple superbowl rings. )

 

[Miguel]

Brady is the obvious one,
As for other teams, how many contracts out there resemble Tom's? How many teams' highest paid player has no phony years?

Like I said before, am not including Tom Brady's current deal in the discussion because it is not remotely close to market value. His prior contracts were backloaded which is why they were redone so often.

 

[1960Pats]

That's 2 AFCCGs back to back man! <-----Jets fan

Some Jets fans refer to that time as "the championship years."