Projection for compensatory picks?

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Dec 6th

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Fencer

Pro Bowl Player
Unless I'm forgetting something -- and I easily could be -- it would seem that the Patriots might be in line to get compensatory picks for Samuel, Stallworth, and Gay. I don't think they added any FAs on the level of any of those three.

Even so, I'd be surprised if somebody with more knowledge of the matter than I have said "That's right. You should expect three compensatory picks in the 3rd-5th rounds."

Somebody with no more knowledge than I have, on the other hand ... ;)
 

ctpatsfan77

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Unless I'm forgetting something -- and I easily could be -- it would seem that the Patriots might be in line to get compensatory picks for Samuel, Stallworth, and Gay. I don't think they added any FAs on the level of any of those three.

Even so, I'd be surprised if somebody with more knowledge of the matter than I have said "That's right. You should expect three compensatory picks in the 3rd-5th rounds."

Somebody with no more knowledge than I have, on the other hand ... ;)

Well, we should be hearing from Adamjt13 (who knows more about this than anyone allowed to talk about it) in the next couple of weeks.

Samuel = 3 is all but certain; less sure about Stallworth and Gay, but if the Pats get anything for them, Stallworth should be a 4, and Gay either one of the last 5s or one of the first 6s.
 

BradyManny

Pro Bowl Player
Don't forget Wilson may or may not count for us.

And that we MIGHT have some guys who may count against us...I think we could never quite figure it out in the other thread we had a few months back. Its all guess work for the most part, except Adamjt13 has it down to a science.
 

ScottieC

In the Starting Line-Up
Unless I'm forgetting something -- and I easily could be -- it would seem that the Patriots might be in line to get compensatory picks for Samuel, Stallworth, and Gay. I don't think they added any FAs on the level of any of those three.

Even so, I'd be surprised if somebody with more knowledge of the matter than I have said "That's right. You should expect three compensatory picks in the 3rd-5th rounds."

Somebody with no more knowledge than I have, on the other hand ... ;)

3rd for Asante, not sure about the others - With the Cassel's trade (if and when it happens), I think we have to looking at a record draft for amount of picks our team has this year.
 
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patchick

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I didn't think Stallworth was an FA -- wasn't he cut from a prove-it type deal that ballooned in year 2?
 

T-ShirtDynasty

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On March 11, 2007, Stallworth agreed to terms with the New England Patriots in a reported six-year deal worth $30 million with $3.5 million guaranteed. The contract was incentive laden, meaning that the Patriots could release him if he underperformed for a small fraction of the full contract. On February 22, 2008 the Patriots declined the option on his contract and he became a free agent.
Donté Stallworth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

patchick

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I believe the Pats didn't pick up an option making him a FA.

Right, I put that badly. Technically, his contract was voided. But somewhere along the line I got the impression that by declining an option, the Pats were not eligible for compensation. I may be completely, wrong, in which case :ugh:
 

BradyManny

Pro Bowl Player
Right, I put that badly. Technically, his contract was voided. But somewhere along the line I got the impression that by declining an option, the Pats were not eligible for compensation. I may be completely, wrong, in which case :ugh:

I think that somewhere in one of the older threads on this issue it was established that declining the option made him a UFA - and that there is precedence here that he should count towards a comp pick.
 

patchick

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I think that somewhere in one of the older threads on this issue it was established that declining the option made him a UFA - and that there is precedence here that he should count towards a comp pick.

Ok, then:

:ugh::ugh::ugh:
 

mgteich

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I'll also wait for Adam. I certainly expect the maximum 3rd for Samuel. I have generally seen that we overestimate all but the best players. My guess is a couple of picks in the 6th and 7th round, perhaps the fifth. Any of these picks don't help us much except to the degree that we need to use our own picks to move up.
 

Rob0729

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It was quite clear that the Pats' offseason last year was a lot about maximizing compensatory picks this year. If you look at all the Pats' free agent signings, none of them qualified as deals that would negatively impact the formula for compensatory draft picks.

I agree that Samuel will net the Pats a third rounder. If they don't get a third rounder, the fix is in. He got top dollar, made the Pro Bowl, played all 16 games, and got to the NFC Championships.

Stallworth will probably net a sixth rounder at most. His contract was high, but he missed a bunch of games and was not much of an impact player.

Gay will earn the same or slightly more. Wilson won't get the Pats much of anything.
 

ctpatsfan77

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I'll also wait for Adam. I certainly expect the maximum 3rd for Samuel. I have generally seen that we overestimate all but the best players. My guess is a couple of picks in the 6th and 7th round, perhaps the fifth. Any of these picks don't help us much except to the degree that we need to use our own picks to move up.

I don't think I'm wildly overestimating; Stallworth's contract, for example, was more-or-less in line with what earned a 4 last year.
 

DaBruinz

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I didn't think Stallworth was an FA -- wasn't he cut from a prove-it type deal that ballooned in year 2?
As was mentioned, Stallworth wasn't cut. The Pats not picking up the option made him a free agent.

The Pats should be getting a 3rd and two fifths...
 

ctpatsfan77

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How many free agents did the Patriots sign? I worry about this caveat from Adam's blog:

"No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value."

Note the word "qualifying." One thing that Adamjt13 has established is that a qualifying FA has to have signed a contract for more than the vet minimum (for 2008, >$800K/yr). Also, the FA has to have been signed before the official end of the free agency period, and the player must not have been waived by his old team (so, for example, LeVoir, O'Neal, and Jordan do not count, as all were waived and/or signed too late in the year).

IIRC, the only FAs that might count against the Pats are Webster and/or Aiken, and even then I'm not sure.
 

DaBruinz

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Looking for Adam's previous work, I found his blog post from a year ago: AdamJT13.

"As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula."

A key passage:

"A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range for a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player."

While we're not going to match Adam's prognosticating skill, we can at least get a head start by listing the free agents lost and free agents signed by the Pats last season, and then assigning approximate values.

How many free agents did the Patriots sign? I worry about this caveat from Adam's blog:

"No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value."

What you skip is the word QUALIFYING. And, based on what I did months ago (this isn't a new topic), the Pats didn't sign any qualifying free agents that off-set their losses.
 

BradyManny

Pro Bowl Player
How many free agents did the Patriots sign? I worry about this caveat from Adam's blog:

"No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value."

If you search through for the old thread on this topic, you'll see that its likely that the Patriots at a maximum only have a couple guys qualifying. They might have none, really. Aiken, Williams, etc they're borderline I'd say.
 
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ctpatsfan77

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What you skip is the word QUALIFYING. And, based on what I did months ago (this isn't a new topic), the Pats didn't sign any qualifying free agents that off-set their losses.

I won't start the debate again in this thread, but I will say that I'm not quite as certain as DaBruinz.
 

Metaphors

In the Starting Line-Up
Next question: About when is the allocation of compensatory picks announced?

Typically around the end of March. Not sure if the NFL announces the exact date ahead of time.

Edit: Now that I think about it, the announcement happens during the owners meeting...so if someone knows the date of an owners meeting around the end of March, that should be your answer.

Edit 2: March 22-25 - NFL Annual Meeting, Dana Point, California.
 
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