Predict the Stats: Sacks (and LB blitz discussion)

[tonyto3690]

I know we all got incredibly excited the last time we played the Bucs in the preseason, but it's hard not to get excited given our personnel. Our starting LBs are all huge guys that will run over almost any TE or RB in the NFL. We finally have the back four to blitz them, and Spikes in particular look really good attacking and not being forced to let QBs go after him.

Will this finally be the year our secondary is able to hold up enough to let us blitz on any down and distance? We saw it last year in the back half of the season, and if we take it another step forward thanks to continuity and secondary we could see Belichicks master plan finally come to fruition.

Sacks:
Wilfork: 2.5
Kelly: 5.0
Chandler: 14.5
Ninkovich: 6.5
Spikes: 4.0
Mayo: 3.0
Hightower: 4.0
Others: 6.0

Total: 45.5

Last year Francis, Cunningham and Scott combined for 8.5 sacks. Martin had 1 as well. Whether they/other newcomers can replicate that success is a big question mark.

 

[AzPatsFan]

All I have to know is that off the 2 preseason games, the Patriots are headed to a projected 56 sack/season record, good enough to lead the league.
Period. End-of-Story.

 

[Big-T]

Wilfork - 3.5
Kelly - 5.5
Jones - 13
Ninkovich - 9
Spikes - 2
Mayo - 2
Hightower - 3
Others - 9

Total = 47

 

[TruthSeeker]

I think a lot of you are expecting way more than I think Jones will give us. I think 11-12 sacks would be more a reasonable expectation, which is basically DOUBLE what he had last year. I can't see him in the 15-16 range, unless he gets a lot of help. I think you will see 20 sacks between Jones/Ninkovich, then maybe another 5 or 6 out of Kelly/Wilfork. Then maybe 20 sacks from the rest of the team, which would give us 45-46 sacks, which seems realistic.

 

[Big-T]

I think a lot of you are expecting way more than I think Jones will give us. I think 11-12 sacks would be more a reasonable expectation, which is basically DOUBLE what he had last year. I can't see him in the 15-16 range, unless he gets a lot of help. I think you will see 20 sacks between Jones/Ninkovich, then maybe another 5 or 6 out of Kelly/Wilfork. Then maybe 20 sacks from the rest of the team, which would give us 45-46 sacks, which seems realistic.

Jones was well on course for double digit sacks last season (and DROTY) then he got injured, missed some games and then played on through injury which explains his slow down at the end of the season.

Having Kelly and Wilfork inside instead of Wilfork and a JAG (literally a jag, now) will help every other player in the front 7 too.

 

[Rob0729]

Jones was well on course for double digit sacks last season (and DROTY) then he got injured, missed some games and then played on through injury which explains his slow down at the end of the season.

Having Kelly and Wilfork inside instead of Wilfork and a JAG (literally a jag, now) will help every other player in the front 7 too.

Yeah, if Jones didn't sprain both his ankles, he would have made it to double digit sacks last year (at least most likely).

From what we see this year, the weight he put on really increased his power and leverage without hurting his speed. He has also seemed to have developed a few more pass rushing moves.

It isn't unheard of an explosion of sacks in year two. JJ Watt went from 5 sacks his rookie year to 20.5 sacks his second year. JPP went from 4.5 sacks his rookie year to 16.5 his second year. Von Miller went from 11.5 sacks his rookie year to 18.5 sacks his second year. That is elite company and we don't know if Jones will join it, but his rookie year was arguably better than Watt's or JJP's in terms of sacks.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Predict the Stats: Sacks (and LB blitz discussion)

I know we all got incredibly excited the last time we played the Bucs in the preseason, but it's hard not to get excited given our personnel. Our starting LBs are all huge guys that will run over almost any TE or RB in the NFL. We finally have the back four to blitz them, and Spikes in particular look really good attacking and not being forced to let QBs go after him.

Will this finally be the year our secondary is able to hold up enough to let us blitz on any down and distance? We saw it last year in the back half of the season, and if we take it another step forward thanks to continuity and secondary we could see Belichicks master plan finally come to fruition.

Sacks:
Wilfork: 2.5
Kelly: 5.0
Chandler: 14.5
Ninkovich: 6.5
Spikes: 4.0
Mayo: 3.0
Hightower: 4.0
Others: 6.0

Total: 45.5

Last year Francis, Cunningham and Scott combined for 8.5 sacks. Martin had 1 as well. Whether they/other newcomers can replicate that success is a big question mark.

I'm making a prediction that Wilfork will set a career high in sacks this season. He has never had the opportunity to play 1tech with a capable 3tech and RDE on each side of him, when Carter was here he was playing the 3tech with Love at the 1tech and before that we played most a 3-4. So with that in mind these are my predictions.

Jones- 13
Ninkovich- 8
Hightower- 6
Benard- 5.5
Kelly- 5
Wilfork- 4.5
Collins- 3
Buchanan- 2.5
Francis- 2
Armstead- 2
Mayo- 2
Spikes- 2

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Hightower will have 10 sacks and lead the team...next would be Chandler Jones with 7

 

[stinkypete]

I don't see any players on this defense with huge sack numbers. Jones will be the obvious catalyst to this pass rush , but the numbers will come from all over the defense

Jones - 9.5
Ninkovich - 6.5
Bernard - 5
Hightower - 5
Wilfork - 4.5
Kelly - 4
A. Wilson - 3.5
Others - 5 to 8 more