Point Differential

[NormZauchin]

This year the Patriots finished first in the NFL with a whopping 191 point differential. The next closest team was the Falcons with 134. This is the fourth highest in team history and the fourth highest in the Belichick/Brady era. The 2007 team set the NFL record in the Super Bowl era with a differential of 315. The 2012 team (226) and the 2010 (205) team were also higher.

I like point differential as a metric because it takes into account both strength of offense and strength of defense. What is interesting about the Pats and point differential is that in seasons with their three highest differentials, they failed to win the Super Bowl, and in two of them, did not even get to the big game. Whereas, in the Super Bowl era, 11 of 24 teams with the highest regular season point difference went on to win the championship. Patriot teams that took the trophy had point differentials of 99 (2001), 110 (2003), 177 (2004), and 155 (2014). This year's team is in the zone (in point differential) between those who won the Super Bowl and those who failed to win it.

By the way, the 1990 Rod Rust Patriots hold the New England record for the worst point differential, minus 265.

 

[The Brandon Five]

This year the Patriots finished first in the NFL with a whopping 191 point differential. The next closest team was the Falcons with 134. This is the fourth highest in team history and the fourth highest in the Belichick/Brady era. The 2007 team set the NFL record in the Super Bowl era with a differential of 315. The 2012 team (226) and the 2010 (205) team were also higher.

I like point differential as a metric because it takes into account both strength of offense and strength of defense. What is interesting about the Pats and point differential is that in seasons with their three highest differentials, they failed to win the Super Bowl, and in two of them, did not even get to the big game. Whereas, in the Super Bowl era, 11 of 24 teams with the highest regular season point difference went on to win the championship. Patriot teams that took the trophy had point differentials of 99 (2001), 110 (2003), 177 (2004), and 155 (2014). This year's team is in the zone (in point differential) between those who won the Super Bowl and those who failed to win it.

By the way, the 1990 Rod Rust Patriots hold the New England record for the worst point differential, minus 265.

It remains ridiculous that the 2007 team did not win. Just inconceivable to this day. That Giants team was just +22.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This year the Patriots finished first in the NFL with a whopping 191 point differential. The next closest team was the Falcons with 134. This is the fourth highest in team history and the fourth highest in the Belichick/Brady era. The 2007 team set the NFL record in the Super Bowl era with a differential of 315. The 2012 team (226) and the 2010 (205) team were also higher.

I like point differential as a metric because it takes into account both strength of offense and strength of defense. What is interesting about the Pats and point differential is that in seasons with their three highest differentials, they failed to win the Super Bowl, and in two of them, did not even get to the big game. Whereas, in the Super Bowl era, 11 of 24 teams with the highest regular season point difference went on to win the championship. Patriot teams that took the trophy had point differentials of 99 (2001), 110 (2003), 177 (2004), and 155 (2014). This year's team is in the zone (in point differential) between those who won the Super Bowl and those who failed to win it.

Seemed like every game in 03 it was 13-10 in the 4th qtr and the D forced a turnover or made a stop. Every. Single. Week.

By the way, the 1990 Rod Rust Patriots hold the New England record for the worst point differential, minus 265.

Great. Thanks for drudging that awesome memory up.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It remains ridiculous that the 2007 team did not win. Just inconceivable to this day. That Giants team was just +22.

All the more reason to get revenge on them this year.

 

[The Brandon Five]

It remains ridiculous that the 2007 team did not win. Just inconceivable to this day. That Giants team was just +22.

Even worse, the 2011 Giants were -6. That's right, they gave up more points than they scored during the regular season. The Patriots were +171.

Kill me.

 

[The Brandon Five]

All the more reason to get revenge on them this year.

Real revenge would be to do it during a year when the Pats went 8-8.

 

[mosslost]

Even worse, the 2011 Giants were -6. That's right, they gave up more points than they scored during the regular season. The Patriots were +171.

Kill me.

Both Giant losses are horrors.

 

[patchick]

in the Super Bowl era, 11 of 24 teams with the highest regular season point difference went on to win the championship.

Wow. While the cherry picking is a little questionable (11 of the 24 highest out of 50?), that's still a pretty powerful stat. For comparison, under the current playoff format since 1990 only half of Superbowls have been won by #1 seeds...and of course, there are TWO #1 seeds each year.

 

[Satchboogie3]

They are and it sucks, but that's also what makes football such a great sport. Any given Sunday. There's no best of 7 that make it nearly impossible for an underdog to win. One game, anything can happen. So while '07 was hard to swallow, it was at least a good story for the NFL, and it also makes it easier knowing that we also won a SB as huge underdogs, so it's hard to be that annoyed. Regardless of how the season ended, I still loved that season and still love to reflect on those games. I just skip the last one

 

[Nikolai]

Seemed like every game in 03 it was 13-10 in the 4th qtr and the D forced a turnover or made a stop. Every. Single. Week.

Yeah, I hear ya there. Although my enduring memory of the D that year was McGinest stuffing the Colts at the goalline in Indy...that was a high scoring game, but I don't recall exactly...38-34 or something like that.

Great. Thanks for drudging that awesome memory up.

Weird that I first started following them then...I blame the Madden football game. Every time the Pats QB (Hodson?) got hurt, the ambulance seemed to cart him off. Even after I got good, it wasn't easy to win with them, but it was fun letting the other team kill my QB once I'd had enough.

Also, the Jets were simply called "New Jersey"

 

[PatsWSB47]

Yep, the Pats have out-statisticed everyone in almost every category. I'm not dismissing the accomplishment but honestly, it will all seem hollow without a Superbowl victory.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yeah, I hear ya there. Although my enduring memory of the D that year was McGinest stuffing the Colts at the goalline in Indy...that was a high scoring game, but I don't recall exactly...38-34 or something like that.

Oh yea. That was one of them. If you have the 3 Games To Glory for that season after the debacle vs WASH it was every week the D came up big. Never seen anything like it.

Weird that I first started following them then...I blame the Madden football game. Every time the Pats QB (Hodson?) got hurt, the ambulance seemed to cart him off. Even after I got good, it wasn't easy to win with them, but it was fun letting the other team kill my QB once I'd had enough.

Also, the Jets were simply called "New Jersey"

I was in college for that season. Thank god I was drunk and stoned 1/2 the time. Made Sundays bearable.

 

[ALP]

This year the Patriots finished first in the NFL with a whopping 191 point differential. The next closest team was the Falcons with 134. This is the fourth highest in team history and the fourth highest in the Belichick/Brady era. The 2007 team set the NFL record in the Super Bowl era with a differential of 315. The 2012 team (226) and the 2010 (205) team were also higher.

I like point differential as a metric because it takes into account both strength of offense and strength of defense. What is interesting about the Pats and point differential is that in seasons with their three highest differentials, they failed to win the Super Bowl, and in two of them, did not even get to the big game. Whereas, in the Super Bowl era, 11 of 24 teams with the highest regular season point difference went on to win the championship. Patriot teams that took the trophy had point differentials of 99 (2001), 110 (2003), 177 (2004), and 155 (2014). This year's team is in the zone (in point differential) between those who won the Super Bowl and those who failed to win it.

By the way, the 1990 Rod Rust Patriots hold the New England record for the worst point differential, minus 265.

You probably have the number more handy, which is why im asking you this, but: what if we split each of the teams/years you referenced into the 1st 8 games and the last 8 games?

so this year it was 191, what is breakdown? and same for
2001:99
2003:110
2004:177
2007: 315
2010: 205
2012: 226
2014: 155
2016: 191

 

[Nikolai]

Oh yea. That was one of them. If you have the 3 Games To Glory for that season after the debacle vs WASH it was every week the D came up big. Never seen anything like it

Loved that D. I remember feeling weird in 2007 when I was more excited to see the offense come on the field.

I was in college for that season. Thank god I was drunk and stoned 1/2 the time. Made Sundays bearable.

That was the 1998-2000 seasons for me. I sobered up for my last year (2001-2) since I knew I'd have to grow up and was considering the military. Talk about perfect timing.

 

[NormZauchin]

Wow. While the cherry picking is a little questionable (11 of the 24 highest out of 50?), that's still a pretty powerful stat. For comparison, under the current playoff format since 1990 only half of Superbowls have been won by #1 seeds...and of course, there are TWO #1 seeds each year.

I gathered the numbers from a website that listed the greatest regular season point differentials in the Super Bowl era. It actually only went up to the 2007 season, and the 2013 Broncos (207 point difference) and the 2012 and 2010 Patriots make the top twenty-four teams for point differential, pushing the 2000 Ravens and 1966 Packers, who both won the Super Bowl, out. Therefore, only 9 of the 24 best point differential teams won the title.

 

[Schmo]

Related to differential, a stat I started looking at is scoring efficiency ratio (PF divided by PA). It basically shows the difference between playing a 16-3 game like the broncos (which, to me, was pretty dominant), and a 43-30 shootout. Obviously, it doesn't tell the whole story, but IMO it's a closer indicator of how all three units play together (field position battles, time of possession etc). In other words, complimentary football.

Here's the top 10... it is pretty ridiculous:

NE - 1.76
Dallas - 1.38
Atlanta -1.33
KC - 1.25
Pit -1.22
Seattle - 1.21
Arizona - 1.15
Denver - 1.12
GB - 1.11
Philly - 1.11

Here's the ratio for the years you mentioned:

2001 - 1.36
2003 - 1.46
2004 - 1.68
2007 - 2.15
2010 - 1.65
2012 - 1.68
2014 - 1.50
2016 - 1.76

By point differential, the 2016 team is 4th on this list, but ratio they are second only to the 2007 team. FWIW

 

[NormZauchin]

You probably have the number more handy, which is why im asking you this, but: what if we split each of the teams/years you referenced into the 1st 8 games and the last 8 games?

so this year it was 191, what is breakdown? and same for
2001:99
2003:110
2004:177
2007: 315
2010: 205
2012: 226
2014: 155
2016: 191

You would have to do a game by game computation. It is easy to find end of season point differentials. I do remember that in 2007, the games got tighter as the season progressed.

 

[fightingirish595]

Even worse, the 2011 Giants were -6. That's right, they gave up more points than they scored during the regular season. The Patriots were +171.

Kill me.

And that goes to show you on game day stats mean nothing, Its all about Matchups and schemes and gamtioe planning and execution.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

You probably have the number more handy, which is why im asking you this, but: what if we split each of the teams/years you referenced into the 1st 8 games and the last 8 games?

so this year it was 191, what is breakdown? and same for
2001:99
2003:110
2004:177
2007: 315
2010: 205
2012: 226
2014: 155
2016: 191

For 2007 last 8 games it was 111. 1.76 Ratio
For 2016 last 8 games it was 106. 1.90 Ratio