Playoff odds

[Pat the Pats Fan]

While I agree that 86.7% seems too high for the Colts, their next three games are against the Browns, the Bengals, and the Lions, so factoring in SOS they should be a slam dunk towards at least 10 wins.

I usually visit coolstandings.com for playoff projections. If you go, you have to click on the football link on the left halfway down (it's a little hard to find at first). They've got the Pats @ 55.5% for the playoffs as of right now.

And we are still #7, on the outside looking in, even @ 55.5%.

The key is the schedule for the Pats, Steelers and Ravens.

We play 3 of 5 on the road, with 3 games against teams vying for the playoffs.
Steelers play 3 of 5 on the road, with 4 games against teams vying for the playoffs.
Ravens play 2 of 5 on the road, with 3 games against teams vying for the playoffs.

Steelers have to play both the Ravens and the Pats. IMHO, they have the toughest road.

 

[juny]

The Pats percentage seems kinda low. Also, as much as I hate the Cowboys, their playoff percentage seems rather low as well at 16.7%. So I am not sure how well their formula works, does anyone know how well they have predicted in the past?

 

[LA Pats Fan]

Actually these projections are mathematically accurate.
Each team is assigned a win strenght based on past perfromance and who they played.
This is the same math model used by the computers to rank college footbal teams.
The computers the run monte carlo game simulations to generate the winning probability for each teams remaining games.

The reason the Patriots chances are low is because we are behind the Steelers and Ravens and probably projected to lose against the steelers this week.

As previously stated This week is Huge for our chances to make the Playoffs. Their will be a big swing win or lose - if we lose this game we are probably out of the playoff picture.

Why? because we will lose tie breakers with Indy, Pitts and San Diego. And it looks like Baltimore actually has a better chance to win the AFC North than Pittsburgh.
Project Assuming PIT wins this week

Pitts burgh (8-3) - NE, DAL, BAL, TEN, CLE (10-6) beat NE and CLE
Baltimore (7-4) - Cin, Was, PIT, DAL, JAC (11-5) lose at DAL
New England (7-4) - PIT, SEA, OAK, ARZ, BUF (10-6) lose PIT and AZ

 

[mgteich]

You say that BALT has a better chance at winning the division because they will beat PITT.

OK, PITT has a better chance at winning the division because they will beat BALT. Is that statement equally reasonable?

Perhaps the right statement is that winner of the BALT-PITT can game will likely win the division.

Actually these projections are mathematically accurate.
Each team is assigned a win strenght based on past perfromance and who they played.
This is the same math model used by the computers to rank college footbal teams.
The computers the run monte carlo game simulations to generate the winning probability for each teams remaining games.

The reason the Patriots chances are low is because we are behind the Steelers and Ravens and probably projected to lose against the steelers this week.

As previously stated This week is Huge for our chances to make the Playoffs. Their will be a big swing win or lose - if we lose this game we are probably out of the playoff picture.

Why? because we will lose tie breakers with Indy, Pitts and San Diego. And it looks like Baltimore actually has a better chance to win the AFC North than Pittsburgh.
Project Assuming PIT wins this week

Pitts burgh (8-3) - NE, DAL, BAL, TEN, CLE (10-6) beat NE and CLE
Baltimore (7-4) - Cin, Was, PIT, DAL, JAC (11-5) lose at DAL
New England (7-4) - PIT, SEA, OAK, ARZ, BUF (10-6) lose PIT and AZ

 

[lamafist]

Assuming for a second that the Jets hold on to the division, our competition for the Wild Card would be Indi and the 2nd place team in the AFCN.

Well, we lose any tiebreaker with Indi, and Baltimore is currently a game ahead of us in conference record. If we lose to Pittsburgh tomorrow, we lose a head-to-head tiebreaker w/ them, and another conference game, meaning we'd need Baltimore to lose to Pittsburgh AND to either the Jags or Bengals or to BOTH the Cowboys and Redskins, in order to have a shot at beating them out.

Basically, if we don't beat Pitt on Sunday, we'll need a miracle to make the playoffs. So at this point, you really can't put the Pats' playoff odds any higher than their odds for winning this Sunday.

Now, even if we do beat Pittsburgh, we still need a Baltimore loss, probably in conference, or for the Colts to fall apart, in order to have an edge in tiebreakers. So basically, in order for our playoff chances to be around 50%, you have to put our chances of winning just Sunday's game against the Steelers at ~75%, which doesn't seem right to me.

 

[Disco Volante]

So now that Indy is basically a lock to make the playoffs, do you think they start resting players Sunday?