Content Post Playoff discussion general

[BobDigital]

This is all about discussing the playoffs as a whole. For instance. Who do we think is likely to be the super bowl champ? We all hope the Pats but is that the most likely? Here is how i think things play out.

Teams odds of winning it all IMO. This also counts seeding as a factor.

14 Carolina >1% - Nuff said

13 Steelers >1% - No real chance

12 LAC 1% - They actually have a way outside the box chance, but it be a hell of a Path... Pats be hard for them. Broncos might actually be easier. Then Bills/Jax most likely. Murders row of away games before even getting to the big game. But they are a legit step up from the first two teams.

11 CHI 1% - A #2 seed being under sold is crazy... but the NFC is stacked and franky GB should have beat them twice. That team (with Love and no onside kick nonsense) kind of has their number... before playing LAR/SEA/whoever.

10 GB 2% - GB only gets 2% cause i expect them to win this week... massive uphill battle after that and they just aren't as good as other teams they will face on the road. And could still lose the CHI. Not outside the realm of possibility.

9 HOU 3% - Houston gets 3% because they should smash Pitt and get an EZ ride to the final 8.. bu after that i can't trust this offense to do it 3 times... doesn't matter how good the defense now... In the 90s i might feel different. In todays game you need to score a bit to have better odds

8 SF 3% - SF being a more offensive team with the outside chance to hold one team down are the anti-HOU... but they have 4 games with no gimmies all away. Super unlikely

7 PHI 5% - PHI is super talented and likely to play at home twice... if they don't they play @ CHI. Which honestly wouldn't be bad either. They are a talented team with the chance to 'turn it on' but this 100% feels like a super bowl slump year and I don't think Hurts puts it together near enough. They may make the NFCCG for all i know but i highly doubt they even represent, let alone win.

6 JAX 7% - You need to respect the hot hand. This offense is playing good and Lawrence has found a new gear... but he has had years to be the guy and hasn't been. I don't think this is what he is now, just a hot streak, and it will be hard for that to last 4 more games. Plus the most likely Path of Bills/Pats/Den the last 2 at home are the three hardest AFC teams. That is very very very tough. Even if the Pats lose... Houston wouldn't be easy either. The point is, they likely face an incredibly hard path.

5 Bills 9% - Speaking of hard paths... JAX/DEN/NWE all away... my god. Josh Allen could maybe do it... but that be a hell of a run.. however I believe Allen can do it more than Lawrence can, if it comes to it.

4 LAR 14% - The Rams are this high cause they basically have their ticket punched to the final 8... however the way the season ended should give anyway pause. They have the talent for sure but momentum into the playoffs matters somewhat which and their road after ain't easy.

3 Pats 15% - The best odds for a team without a bye. In part cause their Path while not easy isn't the hardest. LAC isn't a bad match up... no cake walk like the Steelers/ Panthers but not a top tier team. Next is likely Houston which is basically 2/3rds of a very good team. You need to like a more complete team against them. Assuming the Jags lose of course... if they don't then it becomes harder... but i think while Houston is a tough out... they should be an 'out'. And they probably would have the easiest 2nd round match if they make it that far... cause i do think the Bills have a good chance to win. So the chances of an easier path make up for having to play an extra game a lot.

2 DEN 16% - Have to accept reality... and that is instantly going to the final 8 ups your odds... just does... as does the massive HFA... But this is a weak first seed and really the bye and HFA should be a bigger boost than it is. The fact it is not speaks to the lack of distance between them and other teams in the league.

1 SEA 22% - This is what a first round bye and HFA should look like. SEA is probably the most complete team in the NFL with momentum. Add in HFA and skipping a game and they are the favorite to win it all. But they aren't better by much and i could easily see them being punched out.. Darnold can be mistake prone. And even if they get out of the NFC they will face an AFC team that is no slouch. I do not believe much separation exist at this point between top AFC and NFC teams. I'd bet on SEA if forced... but it be within 3 points.


AFC odds 46.5% NFC odds 53.5%
Pats by my estimate are slightly less than 1/3 to rep the AFC.
Not bad at all considering we need to win 3 games to do it.

If they get by LAC healthy these odds change in their favor a good deal.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think Seattle is the most likely one and done. They are not a good team. SF would've embarrassed them badly had they been healthy.

I like NE's chances at least getting out of the AFC.

Denver will need favorable matchups to get out of the AFC.

If SF were fully healthy (including Aiyuk not losing brain cells), no NFC team would've stood a chance.

I worry about the Bills riding Cook ala Denver 1997 and they pull some upsets.

If Barkley gets going, Eagles will be difficult to beat.

Houston is an odd team. Mediocre offense, but a defensive pass rush that could go off madden style.

Steelers best chance to win a playoff game is at home against Houston. The Jekyll and Hyde game.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Everyone is underestimating Philly. They should be the odds on favorite to win. That defense is now healthy. Their special teams are elite. They have won 2 key games just by special teams play. Hurts doesn't need to be a superhero. But if he does they have the best running back and wide receiver 1 and 2 in the tournament.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

One day I'm going to make a compilation of all the boneheaded plays Josh Allen makes. I swear to God no one remembers any of them except me.

 

[Borg140]

Rams are 10 point favorites on the road despite losing to Carolina during the season. I think they roll over the Panthers. Beyond that, I’m not really confident of one side or the other in the other games. Maybe I’ll feel differently later in the week.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Rams should win easily rd 1, however they aren't playing as well as earlier in the season, I see them losing 2nd rd.
Denver is primed for a one and done (in the 2nd rd obv).
Pitt is not a good team and Tomlin is a terrible gameday/playoff coach. If Houston plays even decent I can't see Pitt winning a playoff game.
Houston will go as far as Stroud can take them. Their D is elite, and they could far if Stroud plays well.
Philly is very streaky, they have looked good and very bad over stretches of the last 2 seasons, even when healthy. Had game to pick if Williams is back for 9ers.
GB, who knows. They looked like the best team in the NFC earlier, but Love remains streaky and no Parson is a big blow.
Chi, again I have no idea. Williams looks bad in stretches, but he makes some big plays. Can he be more consistent?
Buff/Jax, I think either could make a run. I would favour Buff, ultimately the very best QBs are usually the guys that advance. TLaw has played very well of late, but I can't pick him over Allen even tho Jax has the better team top to bottom.
Chargers, one and done we all hope.
NE, good enough coach/QB and roster to win it all. Will lack of experience hurt them? We all certainly hope not.

 

[Uptown]

There’s already a thread for this.. @BobDigital

 

[BobDigital]

There’s already a thread for this.. @BobDigital

Then i hope they are combined.