God, I love this stuff. The only negative is that it takes a couple of hours to get thru it. But I have a couple of thoughts.
Pats offense:
1. The more I see about the Philly defense, the more I'm convinced that the Pats will EVENTUALLY solve whatever they have to bring at them.
2. The Eagles have great DL depth but their greatest value is their ability to stop the run. Against the pass, not so much. They actually had fewer sacks than the Pats in the regular season, and have only 4 during the postseason, compared to the 11 the Pats have in 2 games. So while I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 sacks in this game, it won't be enough to derail this offense over 60 minutes and 70 odd plays.
3. The Pats have shown over many years that they are NOT going to bang their heads against the wall. Kollman's excellent breakdown of the Seattle win provides some great insight on where that defense breaks down. Now the Seattle offense couldn't be more different than what the Pats run, but the concepts he points out are spot on, in any offense. Plus the Pats have a better OL and skill players than Seattle, although Brady is never going to emulate what Wilson can do as a run threat.
4. Schwartz's defense is predicated on stopping the run (like most defenses are) and providing enough pressure to protect a decent, but not great secondary. I would expect (as usual) whatever Schwartz had dialed up will be effective.....early. Then like EVERY good defense the Pats have played, they will eventually figure it out and start to move the ball on a consistent basis.
5. Rub routes, double moves, getting our RB's out on their LB's will all be part of Josh's equation when it all comes together. 20 rushes should be the max in this game if it's close, anything more would indicate the Pats are running away with it.
Pats Defense.
1. How to defend the RPO -
a. This is NOT a true triple option. Until proven otherwise the QB is NOT a run threat. So now it's a RB run or pass. The simple concept is to get the LB sucked up into the run and throw easy passes behind them. IF the run is wide open then simply give the RB the ball.
Now back in the old triple option days of the 80's that happened right at the LOS. Here the mesh is happening out of the shotgun 3-4 yds behind the LOS. That's an acute advantage to a well-prepared defense. The OL has to hold their blocks longer. So if we don't get into situations where the D gets outnumbered on one side or the other, we SHOULD be OK. Think back to the Titans game where we had the numbers advantage on the short side and ran Lewis there successfully 3 or 4 times until they finally adjusted. We don't want that happening to us.
Now here's where the creativity happens. First, you recognize that the LB ARE going to get sucked up and be of little help in coverage. But given the import of stopping the run, that HAS to be the case. But that STILL leaves you with 5 guys to defend 4 receivers. Fortunately, we are blessed with 5 guys who are good at that, since THEY are the strength of our Defense.
The other thing you can do is bait your QB into making the wrong read, by predetermining pass and hope that's what he does. This is already too long but you can stem your DL or run blitz with one LB while putting the other in coverage. Many other ways to do it, but all have risk attached to it, like any well timed stunt.
b. Stop the "big play". Their win over the Vikings was filled with big plays. Against the Falcon's, not so much. You do this by NOT doing what the Vikings did all game. You tackle well, and you don't get beat SOO badly by double moves. It's OK to give a guy a step or 2 and catch up, but the Vikings DB's got beat by 5-10 yds.
c. The key to the Philly offense is their OL. They've got 2 legit all pros on the left side and their C probably SHOULD have been an all pro. And like we have been saying our DL and LB's aren't going to make many all AFCE teams.
, let alone any all-league teams. To combat this you have to recognize this imbalance and move to protect it. Just like you add a RB or TE to chip a great pass rusher, you have to do some things to protect against 3 great OLmen.
Now if I'm the Eagles, when I run the ball, THAT's where I'm running it. Right to my 2 all pro's. To defend it you might slant to the all pro side. There are run blitzes that can make it tough even for all pros to attack. Most of all you have to play very solid and fundamental football against a really good OL.
IF the Pats hold the Eagles under 100 yds rushing, then they will run away with this game. They don't have to shut them down. Just not let them run wild.
c. I expect Foles to be better than he was vs the Falcons, but not as good as that game againt the Vikes. 17-24 points would seem to be a reasonable expectation from this defense
If this game goes the way I hope, the MOST the Eagles will score is 24, while the LEAST the Pats will score is 24. Well if that's the case, then I'll take my chances for a positive result.
