Pats draft QB Jimmy Garropolo from Eastern Illinois in the 2nd round

[Snake Eyes]

So are vet FA signings. NFL stars Ocho Cinco and the very fast WR star whose name escapes me, were signed and could not produce in the Pats system.

Yes, those didn't work out, there will be failures on every method but I haven't seen any data that makes a firm case for the efficiency of one to be inherently superior.

 

[Brady6]

Very few receivers enter the NFL and tear it up from day one; Dobson had 37 receptions, 519 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 12 games (he left 2 in the first half with an injury). Compare those stats to these players first seasons –

-Demaryius Thomas – 22 receptions, 283 yards, 2 touchdowns
-Alshon Jeffery – 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 touchdowns
-Brandon Marshall – 20 receptions, 309 yards, 2 touchdowns
-Eric Decker – 6 receptions, 106 yards, 1 touchdown
-Dez Bryant – 45 receptions, 561 yards, 6 touchdowns
-Calvin Johnson – 48 receptions, 756 yards, 4 touchdowns
-Vincent Jackson – 3 receptions, 59 yards, 0 touchdowns

The reality is Dobson proved he could be successful at the NFL level, on a broken foot he went out and had 2 receptions for 37 yards in the AFCCG. He has been training, a stress fracture limits his ability to run on his foot a lot but he is still able to hit the weight room, learn the playbook, and even jog routes.

More than Dobson those who suggest Boyce might be cut, that is ridiculous, can you imagine if the Broncos had cut Decker, or San Diego had cut Jackson after just one season. Josh Boyce is one of the fastest players in the NFL, his athletic attributes are more impressive than TY Hilton or Randall Cobb. He missed OTAs and the beginning of camp because of a foot injury so that put him behind the 8 ball, but he showed promise at the end of the season, and it was his drawing the penalty that won the Browns game.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I have tended to ignore Boyce. But he does have great speed. The present WR corps has multiples of 'X' and Slot WRs, but little in the way of truly speedy flankers AKA 'Z' WRs, although Edelman can play there. But I think he is is much better in the slot where his quickness and shiftyness can be applied.

 

[Brady6]

I have tended to ignore Boyce. But he does have great speed. The present WR corps has multiples of 'X' and Slot WRs, but little in the way of truly speedy flankers AKA 'Z' WRs, although Edelman can play there. But I think he is is much better in the slot where his quickness and shiftyness can be applied.

I think people are stuck on the two tight end offense, however that was more Bill O’Brien’s thing than it has ever been Josh McDaniels. Josh actually seems to prefer either a traditional I-formation or a 3-WR set. I think he is attempting to rebuild the 2007 offense to some degree.

X-WR – Moss
Z-WR – Stallworth
Slot WR – Welker
#4 WR - Gaffney
TE – Watson
RB – Maroney
3rd down RB – Faulk
FB – Evans
Blocking TE –Brady
Short yardage RB - Morris

If you translate that into 2014 –

X-WR – Dobson
Z-WR – LaFell/Edelman
Slot WR – Edelman/Amendola
#4 WR - Amendola/LaFell
TE – Gronkowski
RB – Ridley
3rd down RB – Vereen
FB – Develin
Blocking TE – Hoomanawanui (ideally I think they would add a Mulligan type of TE again)
Short yardage RB – TBD (we had it in Blount, hopefully Houston can fill that void)

Much like Chad Jackson in 2007, Josh Boyce is going to have to find a way to fit into the mix, I hope he does a better job than Jackson.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Josh actually seems to prefer either a traditional I-formation or a 3-WR set. I think he is attempting to rebuild the 2007 offense to some degree.

I don't see much resemblance to the 2007 offense at all.

 

[Ivan]

I don't see much resemblance to the 2007 offense at all.

I think the offense is going to be closer to the Charlie Weiss model, where the open guy is the favorite receiver and they run consistently to provide balance and toughness and help the defense by controlling the tempo of the game and time of possession. This team is going to be the most balanced we have seen since the dynasty years.

 

[Brady6]

I don't see much resemblance to the 2007 offense at all.

That is because Dobson is not Moss, outside of that every other position is close or in some situations even better than what was there in 2007.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

You're also using a major Free Agent bust for your standard, what if I traded the Ras-I pick for a solid but unspectacular vet, that would change the comparison quite a bit, yes?

First, if you can even consider trading the top pick of the second round for a solid but unspectacular vet, I'm not sure what else I can say because it's clear you have no clue how to value those picks.

As for the major free agent, of course it is. Free agency is really split into two times: the feeding frenzy at the beginning, and the leftovers at the end. The beginning is all major free agent signings and major free agent busts. It's only after the initial rush when true value starts to emerge. But if you're talking about acquiring a veteran in free agency to be a starter, you're going to pay a lot.

Anyways, this is getting way off-topic and I'm not sure why we're even talking about it. The draft is vital to sustaining success in the NFL.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It very much was an anomaly, it was ridiculous value, and BB was wise to jump on it.

As someone once noted, no one is better at punishing other teams' mistakes than the Patriots.

 

[mgteich]

That is because Dobson is not Moss, outside of that every other position is close or in some situations even better than what was there in 2007.

So, other than one of the top 2 receivers of all time, the 2007 offense resembled the 2014 offense.

I would note that the 2012 offense had about as many completions and yards as 2007.

The open question is who is going to step up. The number of catches by wide receivers last year would be fine (2

 

[Gymrat]

I am not one to normally pile on new posters, because sometimes it takes a few weeks to get used to keeping your mouth shut and your eyes/ears open a bit more, but one thing that I keep thinking when reading gymrat's posts on training regimens and weight/muscle ratios etc is that....we must not forget that we have excellent trainers, medical personnel, coaching staff, and exercise people on staff in Foxborough.

In other words, one can reasonably assume that if they really wanted Chandler Jones to bulk up, they'd have him doing so---with a quickness. I would assume that a professional NFL athlete could either lose or gain 10-15 pounds in a very brief period of time (a couple/few weeks), should Bill Belichick actually want them to.

I am sure that there is a standard in place during weekly weigh ins that demand how much muscle and weight is either added or lost, so all of our expert opinions are pretty much meaningless in this regard.

No offense to gymrat, or his thoughts on the matter. I do respectfully disagree with the constant pointing out physical fitness pluses/minuses in regards to each individual player though, as knowledgeable as he obviously is on the general subject of physical fitness.



Speaking of "Godzilla," I saw it tonight and thought that it was kind of boring and dry. Metacritic.com takes an all encompassing scale of all of the major reviewers in the nation and came up with a 68/100 score, but I can't really figure out why? I would have given it something around 55 to 60, tops.

Trust me on this dude SERIOUSLY. There is more to a player getting to his maximum potential than doing the teams workouts. His own training and nutrition must go leaps and bounds above what is required by the team trainers. The teams trainers ensure you can pass endurance tests and not much beyond that. If you wish to minimize fat in search of speed its on you the player. If you want to add muscle to get stronger your individual training/nutrition must go above and beyond the teams requirements especially in the offseason. If you wanna be more flexible you have to hire your own top take kwan do and other trainers. Again especially in the off season.

Shannon Sharpe told me himself if it weren't for his going the extra miles with his own personal training/nutritionist in off season He would never have been NFL Caliber much less a pro bowl player. He added muscle through training/nutrition and got as strong as he could til he felt bulking starting to slow him down. He then kept his body fat as low as possible without tapping into needed structural bodyfat to maximize his speed/quickness. He also told me Michael McCrary did the same thing and never would have been pro bowl caliber with just team standards. He said the main thing most players neglect to max out muscle/power body fat/quickness is disciplined nutrition programs. He said he had to pack his own food while traveling with the team because the proper foods he needed were not even available. Worse yet he said many players are very undisciplined with their diet/nutrition and remain in adequate shape through team training/practicing and genetics. But majority of players leave power/quickness/potential,stamina on the table and even eat fast food more than we would believe.

Btw I do appreciate your understanding and slack to the new guy.

 

[Gymrat]

First, if you can even consider trading the top pick of the second round for a solid but unspectacular vet, I'm not sure what else I can say because it's clear you have no clue how to value those picks.

As for the major free agent, of course it is. Free agency is really split into two times: the feeding frenzy at the beginning, and the leftovers at the end. The beginning is all major free agent signings and major free agent busts. It's only after the initial rush when true value starts to emerge. But if you're talking about acquiring a veteran in free agency to be a starter, you're going to pay a lot.

Anyways, this is getting way off-topic and I'm not sure why we're even talking about it. The draft is vital to sustaining success in the NFL.

Depends on what is considered solid or spectacular. Steve Johnson,mike Williams,Jeremy maclin,Riley cooper,Emanuel sanders,Greg Jennings,Bowe are solid with some of them possible potential to be spectacular.

 

[Brady6]

So, other than one of the top 2 receivers of all time, the 2007 offense resembled the 2014 offense.

I would note that the 2012 offense had about as many completions and yards as 2007.

The open question is who is going to step up. The number of catches by wide receivers last year would be fine (2

I was speaking in terms of type of personnel. The type of receivers, running backs, etc. is similar in what they can contribute.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Depends on what is considered solid or spectacular. Steve Johnson,mike Williams,Jeremy maclin,Riley cooper,Emanuel sanders,Greg Jennings,Bowe are solid with some of them possible potential to be spectacular.

I'm not really sure what you're saying here so forgive me if this post is a bit all over the map. Is it regarding the 2nd round pick for a solid vet or is it the value of free agency? Because the examples you give are really confusing.

Stevie Johnson was traded for a 4th which can conditionally become a 3rd. Mike Williams was traded for a 6th. No way either of those guys would garner a 2nd-round pick so not sure why they were introduced into the conversation. Sure, trading picks for players can be good (Aqib Talib) and it can be bad (Ochocinco). It's still a risk.

And I think it's important to agree on value. I don't consider $5M a year for a receiver who hasn't caught 50 passes to be great value. $5M is what a top of the 1st-round WR could be expected to receive, not just a solid guy. Riley Cooper is being paid pretty decent cash after signing a 5 year, $22.5M deal while catching 47 passes last season with DeSean Jackson around. That's more than Brandon Lloyd signed with us, and we cut him after catching 27 more passes than Cooper. I don't really see Cooper as great value.

Sanders also couldn't exceed Lloyd's season with the Patriots but is being paid an average of $5M a year on a 3-year deal, twice as much as the offer sheet he signed with the Patriots the year before. Obviously he has significantly more leverage as an unrestricted free agent than before as a restricted free agent, and I expect his numbers will go up playing with Peyton, but I'm not sure if that's a great deal or not. Maclin was injured which affected his market value.

And I really have no idea why you brought up Jennings, who signed a huge 5-year, $47.5M deal and didn't even finish in the top 40 in receiving yards, and had one of his worst seasons after signing the deal. And I'm really confused why you brought up Dwayne Bowe, who also had one of his worst seasons after his big deal (worst if you don't count the season cut short by injuries). He is one of the top 3 paid receivers after his 5-year, $56M deal...he damn well BETTER be more than "possible potential to be spectacular."

I'm not disagreeing that there are good deals in trades and free agency, but there are risks that go with it. If you go high-end, you are generally either overpaying or taking on some type of character/injury risk. Or you're at the low-end bargain-hunting, which can be great, but those are flyers, low-risk/high-reward that you can't depend on. There are exceptions due to circumstances, like system changes or injuries or character concerns.

But there is no fool-proof method of acquiring talent. You need to mix from all of them, but in terms of generating value, the easiest method is the draft.