Patriots to Run more next season?

[zydecochris]

Tom Brady was a good as ever last year, but turns 40 before the season starts. Other teams have tried to emphasize their running game to protect aging Hall-of-Fame QB's from injury (most famously the Broncos in Elway's last two seasons). Do the Patriots plan to run at least a little bit more this season? I think there have been a few suggestive facts and hints:

• The Patriots Cap Hits for the RB (and FB) positions recently have been: 2013: $3.4M; 2014: $4.0M; 2015: $2.6M; 2016: $4.8M; 2017: $12.6M. Anybody notice an anomaly? At the very least, the Pats are spending way more on the RB position this year.
• Last year the Pats used an offensive lineup featuring two backs and two tight ends  a league high 11 percent of the time (as described at: https://theringer.com/nfl-offensive-strategy-going-big-a8e0ae117091), in the attempt to "go big" as defenses are "going small".
• The Patriots would appear to be loading up even more on big tight ends this year, in addition to Gronk they dealt a 4th round pick for TE Dwayne Allen and swapped picks to bring in James O’Shaughnessy. They are absolutely loaded with big TE's this year.
• Half of their 2017 draft picks went for offensive tackles, and several recent draft OL draft picks went to linemen who were primarily run blockers in college (Mason and Fleming).

Does this mean that the Pats will run more this year? I for one, would love to see that happen. I think the Pats are trying to make Brady's life easier this year (and help him avoid injury) by beefing up their running game.

Hopefully this year will be one of Brady's best with an improved running game, along with the addition of Cook and Gronk's return.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I hope they're going to run more AND pass more.

 

[fightingirish595]

Being good at running always provides you with a significant advantage over the other team.

Your pretty hard to beat when you can run the ball and stop the run without committing numbers. That's something belichick has always been about

 

[varjao]

The stats won't show that and it will probably be lost in history but TB12 won 2 SB's recently without a running game. That game against the Ravens in the SB49 run, what was that, I think the didn't hand off the ball one single time in the second half.

 

[mgteich]

Tom Brady was a good as ever last year, but turns 40 before the season starts. Other teams have tried to emphasize their running game to protect aging Hall-of-Fame QB's from injury (most famously the Broncos in Elway's last two seasons). Do the Patriots plan to run at least a little bit more this season? I think there have been a few suggestive facts and hints:

• The Patriots Cap Hits for the RB (and FB) positions recently have been: 2013: $3.4M; 2014: $4.0M; 2015: $2.6M; 2016: $4.8M; 2017: $12.6M. Anybody notice an anomaly? At the very least, the Pats are spending way more on the RB position this year.
• Last year the Pats used an offensive lineup featuring two backs and two tight ends  a league high 11 percent of the time (as described at: https://theringer.com/nfl-offensive-strategy-going-big-a8e0ae117091), in the attempt to "go big" as defenses are "going small".
• The Patriots would appear to be loading up even more on big tight ends this year, in addition to Gronk they dealt a 4th round pick for TE Dwayne Allen and swapped picks to bring in James O’Shaughnessy. They are absolutely loaded with big TE's this year.
• Half of their 2017 draft picks went for offensive tackles, and several recent draft OL draft picks went to linemen who were primarily run blockers in college (Mason and Fleming).

Does this mean that the Pats will run more this year? I for one, would love to see that happen. I think the Pats are trying to make Brady's life easier this year (and help him avoid injury) by beefing up their running game.

Hopefully this year will be one of Brady's best with an improved running game, along with the addition of Cook and Gronk's return.

Sure, the patriots would like to run more, primarily when they are 2 TD's ahead. Hoping looking for OT's and TE's say nothing about this "plan".

TIGHT END
The team lost Bennett. Gronk and Williams ended the year injured. And, you are surprised that the patriots have emphasized acquiring tight ends. I don't think that looking for tight ends is a mystery, and I don't think that this an indicator of changing the offense.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Everyone agreed that OT help was a priority.

1) Cannon is an OK starter.
2) Solder is a free agent next year.
3) Fleming is an OK backup, and fine #6 OL who is a free agent next year.
4) Waddle has been injured, and has shown little so far.

CONCLUSIONS
A) We need a #2 and #3 TE. Given Gronk's injuries, the #3 should be able to play.
B) We could use a better backup than Fleming.
C) We should be looking for someone who might start in 2018.
D) We should be looking for developmental OT that could be a backup in 2018.

 

[fightingirish595]

The stats won't show that and it will probably be lost in history but TB12 won 2 SB's recently without a running game. That game against the Ravens in the SB49 run, what was that, I think the didn't hand off the ball one single time in the second half.

I'm tellin ya... they won without a run game in 03. They have to be the only franchise in the NFL I can think of that wins super bowls without running the ball well

 

[zydecochris]

The stats won't show that and it will probably be lost in history but TB12 won 2 SB's recently without a running game. That game against the Ravens in the SB49 run, what was that, I think the didn't hand off the ball one single time in the second half.

Agreed. TB12 has won two SB's with virtually no run game. How? By a superhuman, otherworldly performance.

With a better run game, I am hopeful that he can win the next one by a merely superhuman worldly performance.

 

[Tony2046]

They are definitely focussing on improving the run game. I'm not sure we will see that in run pass percentage splits but I do believe we will see it in yards per carry.

I'm excited with the Gillislee addition. If you watch any film on him you'll notice that he has an explosive second gear. When running to the outside he makes a hard cut and accelerates instantly. When running to the inside he finds a lane and explodes through it. I can't wait to see how that translates behind the Pats O line. Btw: He hasn't caught many passes out of the backfield but he hasn't shown that he can't catch passes out of the backfield either. I hope he can consistently.

Burkhead, imo, was a bit of a gamble albeit a seemingly safe one. He performed well in Cinci when given his opportunity but basically he is still somewhat of an unknown with the limit action he's seen. The fact he's is reportedly a solid special teams guy makes him a safer gamble imo.

Wow if all 4 RB's can catch out of the backfield. Damn that would be something.

 

[aluminum seats]

Interesting point on the RB spend.

With health and good O/line play, on paper this is the most unstoppable offense I've ever seen.

 

[maineman209]

If by "run more", you mean run a higher percentage of the time ...

The Pats pass-run ratio in 2016 was 53-47, well below the league average of 58-42.

They may run more effectively and the ground game may have more consistency, but the final RB corps for 2017 will also likely have more versatility, so the short passing game may also be more effective, which could increase the pass-run ratio over 2016.

IIRC, in one of the games against the Jets in 2016, Brady targeted RBs 19 times - a couple more times than the WRs, and about 33% of all targets in that game. And most of those weren't dump-offs, but designed plays.

I think the biggest factor in determining the pass-run ratio is - and probably always will be - what the brain trust sees as the best way to attack the particular defense that they're playing that week. Over the course of the season maybe that works out to a higher percentage of runs than 2016, maybe it works out to more passing.

In terms of the higher investment in RBs for 2017 (still not high by league standards), it seems to me that the Pats simply paid for more versatility and depth. They now have a stable of RBs who can run the ball fairly well, AND catch the ball very well. If one guy gets injured (e.g., Lewis), it won't erase the section of the playbook that uses two RBs who can both run or catch.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Too many weapons in the passing game and too good of a qb to pass less imo. I do think the run game will be more effective this year tho, and having a more respectable threat of a run game will make a difference in the playoffs.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

When i first saw this thread, i thought belichick was going to make the team run more on the hills behind the stadium. That would suck for them.

 

[RobertWeathers]

What were they last year? 54%/46% run/pass?

I expect 1-2% closer and with the deep ball improving even more they will still hang 40ppg on the chump teams and 31-35 on the good ones.

 

[ausbacker]

Sure, the patriots would like to run more, primarily when they are 2 TD's ahead. Hoping looking for OT's and TE's say nothing about this "plan".

TIGHT END
The team lost Bennett. Gronk and Williams ended the year injured. And, you are surprised that the patriots have emphasized acquiring tight ends. I don't think that looking for tight ends is a mystery, and I don't think that this an indicator of changing the offense.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Everyone agreed that OT help was a priority.

1) Cannon is an OK starter.
2) Solder is a free agent next year.
3) Fleming is an OK backup, and fine #6 OL who is a free agent next year.
4) Waddle has been injured, and has shown little so far.

CONCLUSIONS
A) We need a #2 and #3 TE. Given Gronk's injuries, the #3 should be able to play.
B) We could use a better backup than Fleming.
C) We should be looking for someone who might start in 2018.
D) We should be looking for developmental OT that could be a backup in 2018.

I piled on Cannon as much as the next guy but after his transformation, to call an All Pro second team starter an OK starter is curious.

 

[maineman209]

What were they last year? 54%/46% run/pass?

I expect 1-2% closer and with the deep ball improving even more they will still hang 40ppg on the chump teams and 31-35 on the good ones.

53% pass/47% run in 2016, 5th lowest pass percentage in the league. League average was 58/42.

Only the Niners, Titans, 'Boys and Bills had a lower passing percentage. Bills were #1 in rushing yards and #1 in rushing TDs last season.

In 2015, the Pats were 62/38 pass/run (for obvious reasons), an anomaly for them. It was the first time since 2002 (61%) that they'd been above league average in passing percentage.

In 2014/2013 they were right at league average with 58%/57% passing, respectively. In 2012, they were at 55% passing. Not coincidentally, that was also the last season before 2016 in which one RB got a crap-tonne of carries (Ridley's big year). They were league average in 2011 (58% passing), but 53% in 2010, the year BGE broke 1000 yards.

It seems to me that, if they're back to more of an RBBC in 2017 (instead of riding one back a lot), especially with a lot of RBs who can catch, it may be more likely that their passing percentage rises closer to league average again, rather than falling further.

 

[RobertWeathers]

53% pass/47% run in 2016, 5th lowest pass percentage in the league. League average was 58/42.

Only the Niners, Titans, 'Boys and Bills had a lower passing percentage. Bills were #1 in rushing yards and #1 in rushing TDs last season.

In 2015, the Pats were 62/38 pass/run (for obvious reasons), an anomaly for them. It was the first time since 2002 (61%) that they'd been above league average in passing percentage.

In 2014/2013 they were right at league average with 58%/57% passing, respectively. In 2012, they were at 55% passing. Not coincidentally, that was also the last season before 2016 in which one RB got a crap-tonne of carries (Ridley's big year). They were league average in 2011 (58% passing), but 53% in 2010, the year BGE broke 1000 yards.

It seems to me that, if they're back to more of an RBBC in 2017 (instead of riding one back a lot), especially with a lot of RBs who can catch, it may be more likely that their passing percentage rises closer to league average again, rather than falling further.

Why do you think they'll be RBBC?

You don't see Gillislee getting 250 carries?

 

[RayClay]

Why do you think they'll be RBBC?

You don't see Gillislee getting 250 carries?

That's about 100 more than his career total, so that's projecting.

 

[ALP]

running in regular season was OK..prob want to be able to run in the post season too though

 

[QuantumMechanic]

53% pass/47% run in 2016, 5th lowest pass percentage in the league. League average was 58/42.

Is that in all games or just in Brady games? If it's in all games, it'll be big-time skewed by Brisett's 2.5 games. Do you have the number for just the Brady games?

 

[Tony2046]

Is that in all games or just in Brady games? If it's in all games, it'll be big-time skewed by Brisett's 2.5 games. Do you have the number for just the Brady games?

Great question. This is what I came up with. Used the data from Pro Football Ref.