Pat Kirwin on DB

[patsfan13]

This is probably the best take I've seen on the Branch situation. He also talked to some GM's and includes their comments.

Some thoughts and observations


By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst


(Sept. 4, 2006) -- Here are a few thoughts and observations as we head closer to the season opener.


2. THE BRANCH SITUATION
Deion Branch has been fined all summer to the tune of $14,000 a day and has incurred fines upwards of $420,000. Now the regular season is upon us, and if he threatens to hold out until the 10th game and forfeit 10 game checks, which adds up to close to $600,000, then his million-dollar salary is gone. If he returns for the final six games in order to record an accrued season so he can become a free agent in 2007, he faces the reality that the Patriots could slap the franchise tag on him. Branch doesn't seem to hold the cards in this poker game.


Deion Branch may be doing himself more harm than the Patriots with his holdout.
Branch is the No. 1 receiver on a division championship football team and a former Super Bowl MVP. He reportedly was offered a $33 million deal over five years with close to 50 percent of it guaranteed. He wanted more money, and consequently he wants out of New England if they aren't willing to pay. The club gave him the right to seek a trade, and he was unable to come back to the Pats with the compensation the new club would have to surrender for the player.

I asked three front office executives from other clubs what they would want for Deion Branch if he were their property, and all three felt a first-round pick was mandatory, especially at this late date. As one GM said, "There is no way I trade the guy in my division unless I got extra compensation beyond a first and a good player."

My favorite analogy of the situation came from an old school personnel man who said, "I never thought I would live long enough to see a player determine what the appropriate value was for himself to be traded." The third exec said before the Super Bowl in 2005, Branch was playing like a second-round pick: 28 starts in three years, 135 receptions and nine touchdowns. But the Super Bowl and the 2006 production (78 receptions, five touchdowns -- which led the team) upgraded the guy.

My advice to the talented wide receiver is fight battles you can win and be patient when you're in a situation you can't win. Right now you're losing money, damaging your reputation, and you may be a Patriot for another two years before you can hit free agency. Don't blame the Patriots for asking for what they think they deserve, but ask why no team has offered what the Pats want to trade you.

www.nfl.com

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=177988&postcount=35

:nono:

Before Ian has to paddle you, a gentle reminder that posting stories in their entirety is copywrite infringement - but it was a good read for Pats fans! Whoops, I just noted that you only took the Branch segment, so it wasn't as bad as I first thought - sorry!

 

[Brownfan80]

Good read.

But somehow I doubt DB will care much what Kirwan has to say. :/

 

[RayClay]

Kirwin is the best in print on football.

He is also 100% correct in his assessment here.

What he left out is the agent who Deion trusts, (as he should), is the one orchestrating this and screwing up big time.

Deion has to find someone to talk to and look at this objectively. His agent is hurting him.

 

[patsfan13]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=177988&postcount=35

:nono:

Before Ian has to paddle you, a gentle reminder that posting stories in their entirety is copywrite infringement - but it was a good read for Pats fans! Whoops, I just noted that you only took the Branch segment, so it wasn't as bad as I first thought - sorry!

That was 1 section in 3 in Kirwin's column and stayed within the 4 papagraph guideline.

The only thing he missed is the risk of injury and possible financial implications. Look at what happened to Ty Law. playing 'for free' this year with no guarentees is very risky.

 

[sarge]

Exellent read.

Someone should forward the link to wRong

 

[patsox23]

good article, thanks for posting.

 

[mgcolby]

I love the last line. That is classic.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That was 1 section in 3 in Kirwin's column and stayed within the 4 papagraph guideline.

The only thing he missed is the risk of injury and possible financial implications. Look at what happened to Ty Law. playing 'for free' this year with no guarentees is very risky.

But if he hadn't soiled his nest with the holdout, he wouldn't be "playing for free." He was set to earn over a million pre-tax, someone else noted he could have taken out an insurance policy against a career ending injury. He had options to reduce the injury risk - his jealousy of David Givens is extraordinary, forgetting that he was a highly rewarded second rounder and D-Giv was a minimum wage seventh round selection. His day will come again, but his reputation as a football player is damaged.

 

[captain stone]

Spot-on analysis by Pat Kirwin, whom I've enjoyed reading since his days at CNN/SI.

Can the FO just talk with Branch directly, and somehow bypass his Tom Condon-wannabe, power-to-the-proletariat, megalomaniac agent?

 

[patsfan13]

They could, but with the grievence filed there probably isn't much contact. I sure Chayut has sold Branch on the Pats FO being the bad guys even though he never put forward a counter proposal to the Pats offer.

 

[Pats726]

I agree totally on point...DB has messed this all up for himself..and when one wanders down these roads without any care at all..who is going to bail him out?? The Patriots have tried to give him a way out, but he prefers not to even care. Pretty dumb if u ask me.

 

[Sundayjack]

I heard an interesting slant on this from Michael Holley this morning, talking about what the Patriots were asking in trade for Deion Branch. He said that he had spoken with one of the few people who participated in the trade discussions, and that, while the Patriots did not explicitly ask for any specific trade package, they did bring up two trade examples in the discussions: Keyshawn Johnson and Joey Galloway - both traded for two first round draft picks.



EDIT: Not knowing which of the 40 Deion Branch threads I should choose, this one seems closest to my mouse pointer. Saving energy, and all.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://waldo.villagesoup.com/Sports/story.cfm?storyID=78005

The Pats, meanwhile, will move forward with the players they have. It's a tradition at Gillette - one that's been successfully time-tested.

Sundayjack - interesting report from Holley, it seems the examples discussed allow the bidders to make an opening knowing what direction they will need to go to be competitive. If that was the case, Seattle and NYJ weren't that interested - who loves ya Deion?

 

[Bostonian1962]

I heard an interesting slant on this from Michael Holley this morning, talking about what the Patriots were asking in trade for Deion Branch. He said that he had spoken with one of the few people who participated in the trade discussions, and that, while the Patriots did not explicitly ask for any specific trade package, they did bring up two trade examples in the discussions: Keyshawn Johnson and Joey Galloway - both traded for two first round draft picks.



EDIT: Not knowing which of the 40 Deion Branch threads I should choose, this one seems closest to my mouse pointer. Saving energy, and all.

Yeah, and Keyshawn and Joey weren't traded within their own division. That makes the 2nd round pick offer from the Jets laughable. Heck, they traded a #1 last year to the Raiders for a stiff TE, who they sent out of town already.

 

[Sundayjack]

Heck, they traded a #1 last year to the Raiders for a stiff TE, who they sent out of town already.

BAH! I had to correct Felger about this yesterday also. Misleading to the nth degree. The Jets gave their first round pick (24) for Jolley, the Raiders second round pick (47) and two sixth round picks. If you want to look at it in terms of draft value, on a standard draft value chart, dropping from the bottom of the first round to the middle of the second is worth about 300 value points - or a low second round pick. Now, for Doug Jolley, I'd argue that's STILL overpaying, but at least I've corrected the factual errors.

 

[Brownfan80]

BAH! I had to correct Felger about this yesterday also. Misleading to the nth degree. The Jets gave their first round pick (24) for Jolley, the Raiders second round pick (47) and two sixth round picks. If you want to look at it in terms of draft value, on a standard draft value chart, dropping from the bottom of the first round to the middle of the second is worth about 300 value points - or a low second round pick. Now, for Doug Jolley, I'd argue that's STILL overpaying, but at least I've corrected the factual errors.

Good info on the Jolley trade. It just shows you that what is widely reported is not always factual. Most reporters leave the actual trade conditions out when reporting on the new Jolley deal.

 

[lobster]

Obviously if league officials have a subtle message they want to get to a player or the players union, Kirwin and the other NFL writers is the way they do it. Therefore when Kirwin wrote "Branch doesn't seem to hold the cards in this poker game" and "Branch may be doing himself more harm than the Patriots with his holdout" I read that is a clear message from league officials to the players union and Branch.

However when Kirwin said he talked to three front office executives from other clubs, it's rather doubtful a club executive is going to tell Kirwin anything league officials don't want to hear. Executives would reserve those comments for an experienced independent sports writer like Borges who can guarantee they will remain anonymous.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2006/09/05/SPG4UKRCDP1.DTL

Roster turnover is a fact in the NFL. But the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts and the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, have stayed consistently in the playoff hunt by carefully evaluating player talent, drafting wisely, re-signing key players to long-term deals and largely avoiding free-agent mistakes.

 

[ilduce06410]

This Is Really Too Strange

I agree totally on point...DB has messed this all up for himself..and when one wanders down these roads without any care at all..who is going to bail him out?? The Patriots have tried to give him a way out, but he prefers not to even care. Pretty dumb if u ask me.

throughout the summer i maintained that branch was not this kind of guy, this egotistical and this impractical. not even terrell owens would have set himself up this way.
surely somebody is telling the twig that he's in a hole here. somebody in his family would have to be telling him to settle by now.
is the agent this stupid? who's going to want sign with him when they see this horror show to an end?
why would DB put his career in the hands of a sports agent? and leave it there?
why would this whole thing with the jets play out in the paper? has someting happened between BB and mangini? you'd think they'd have talked this out on the phone.
what generally happens next is DB gets hurt in a car crash.
incredible.