Pat kirwan's take

[SVN]

http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9918816

this guy is usually balanced in his analyis.


so is gil brandt
http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9920852

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Kirwan said a lot of what we've said about our offense. We know we can't block them for long, so go to the spread/shotgun/quick release before they can get there. The stuff he said about Tomlinson is encouraging. For those who missed it in the other thread, Football Outsiders' stats rank Tomlinson #1 among RB but only 13th in successfull runs - this means he's only above average for the median play but busts a lot of long ones. Which means if we tackle well, including the secondary when he busts through on some plays, we can contain him. Not stop him but contain him.

 

[SVN]

Which means if we tackle well, including the secondary when he busts through on some plays, we can contain him. Not stop him but contain him.

our spotty tackling has been a concern for us this yr..i think the pats will game plan like they would for michael vick ..setting the edges and keep LT inside....unfortunately colvin isnt the greatest in run support so he needs to play his best to set the outside edges...i think we might mixin a lot of 4-3 with jarvis green in the game to control the pocket as much as possible

 

[psychoPat]

Always encouraging to read analysts who turn thumbs UP on our guys.

These words of Kirwan's struck me:

I was surprised to see that Tomlinson has 38 games since 2002 with less then 100 yards rushing. The team's record in those 38 games is 15-23. In the Chargers' two losses this season (Kansas City and Baltimore), L.T. did not have 100 yards on the ground. There's no doubt in my mind the Patriots will study the teams that use a 3-4 defense and have played San Diego over the past two years. In the last two Steelers games against San Diego, the Ravens game from earlier this season, and the Cowboys game from last year, Tomlinson ran a total of 75 times for 268 yards at 3.5 yards per carry.

The secret to those 3-4 defenses against Tomlinson may be to never penetrate the front seven, which the two-gap defenses do very well and contain the run with corners in Cover Two. Train your players to work down the line of scrimmage, preventing the cutback lanes that come with an over-aggressive approach, and tackle the great back for a 2-yard gain. As one coach who faced Tomlinson numerous times said, "You can't stop him as a runner, but if you're patient and extremely disciplined, holding him under 100 is possible." He also added that Bill Belichick, with his big defensive line and savvy veteran linebackers, has just the kind of team to do it right. Dealing with the effective blocking of fullback Lorenzo Neal is critical, and matching up against tight end Antonio Gates still has to be solved, but I am expecting the front seven from New England to be very patient against the great MVP.

 

[RayClay]

Kirwan's the best and Brandt's good too.

Why is everybody down on our line? We've added talent. Is it the absence of a monster left tackle?

 

[SVN]

Kirwan's the best and Brandt's good too.

Why is everybody down on our line? We've added talent. Is it the absence of a monster left tackle?

i dont think anyone is necessarily down on our line but they have been inconsisten this yr. And matt light cant play on most teams or QB's ...brady's quick release is the reason they decided to keep light i think..he is a decent left tackle but gets beat quite a few times

 

[unoriginal]

Kirwan's the best and Brandt's good too.

Why is everybody down on our line? We've added talent. Is it the absence of a monster left tackle?

Yes!

And the absence of a Pro Bowl running back racking up yards.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Kirwan said a lot of what we've said about our offense. We know we can't block them for long, so go to the spread/shotgun/quick release before they can get there.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/2007/01/positional_grou_3.html

Positional groupings
Closing the book on the Patriots' win over the Jets by looking at the positional groupings the team used on offense:

2 WR/2 TE/1 RB -- 34 of 72 snaps
3 WR/1 TE/1 RB -- 16 of 72
3 TE/1 FB/1 RB -- 12 of 72
1 WR/2 TE/1 FB/1 RB -- 5 of 72
1 WR/3 TE/1 RB -- 3 of 72
2 WR/1 TE/1 FB/1 RB -- 2 of 72

ANALYSIS: The Patriots came out in their 3-wide package on their first two drives, running 14 of their first 15 plays out of the set. As Bill Belichick explained after the game, running the no-huddle with the 3-wide package was to establish the tempo of the game. After hitting the Jets with that initial blow, the Patriots didn't go back to the 3-wide package until the fourth quarter, on one of the big plays of the game -- a 10-yard catch by Troy Brown on third and eight to extend a scoring drive that ultimately put the Patriots up 30-16. Instead, the team settled into its base offense, with two wide receivers, two tight ends, and one running back. That package helped the Patriots combat the pressure the Jets were bringing on the pass rush, as the tight ends were crucial in the pass protection phase of the game.

Seems like that popular spread offense was part of the coaching chess match and not the focus of the offensive effort.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9918816

this guy is usually balanced in his analyis.


so is gil brandt
http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9920852

The problem with all the analysis going is its a whole lot of repetition. BB knows what the Patriots have to do. Marty knows what the Patriots will try to do. Every prognosticator knows, every fan knows etc etc. The Patriots have to keep LT's production in check. That's the top of the pyramid, cause if the Patriots don't do that? It'll be lights out for the Patriots. If, however, the Patriots do slow down LT, then the multiple layers of the pyramid are wide open for discussion. Can the Pats OL give Brady enough time to slice up the SD secondary (will they go spread, will they go no huddle)? Can a playoff novice QB like Rivers lead the Bolts to a victory on his arm (will BB have one of his plans for an opposing QB up his sleeve, will SD go wide open in the pass or play a short, controlled game ala the Jets)? Again, those lower tier questions are moot if the Patriots don't slow down LT. The pressing question of the match up centers on the Pats having to stop someone who is difficult to stop, and quite simply this is why SD is measurably favored to win the game....

 

[RayClay]

Yes!

And the absence of a Pro Bowl running back racking up yards.

Is that sarcasm?

 

[RayClay]

i dont think anyone is necessarily down on our line but they have been inconsisten this yr. And matt light cant play on most teams or QB's ...brady's quick release is the reason they decided to keep light i think..he is a decent left tackle but gets beat quite a few times

I think it had more to do with the out of synch offense caused by new players making Brady hesitant.

We don't have a "hold the pocket for a year" OL like KC, (if they still do), but other teams can't get out on screens like us either.

Our OL is fairly young, but i think they're good.

 

[Oswlek]

THis has nothing to do with Kirwan or Brant, but I didn't feel like starting another thread for this question:

Why do people keep mentioning how well LDT has run on NE in the past?

Is it really that hard to see that LDT matchup against NE at their weakest points of any of the past 5 seasons? Would it be fair to talk about how great of a game Brady had against San Diego in 2001? It seems pretty clear that SD is a vastly different team than the one Brady shredded in 2001, but why is it that hard to see that NE bears only about a 10% resemblence to the ones LDT has smoked in the past?

I'm not saying the guy isn't good. I think it will take a monumental effort to keep him under 100 yards. LDT is IMHO the best RB I have seen in the past 15 years (yes, better than Sanders or Emmitt).

But that doesn't change the fact that those previous matchups are as indicative of what will happen this week as Asante Samuel's production vs. the Eagles the past few preseasons.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

THis has nothing to do with Kirwan or Brant, but I didn't feel like starting another thread for this question:

Why do people keep mentioning how well LDT has run on NE in the past?

Is it really that hard to see that LDT matchup against NE at their weakest points of any of the past 5 seasons? Would it be fair to talk about how great of a game Brady had against San Diego in 2001? It seems pretty clear that SD is a vastly different team than the one Brady shredded in 2001, but why is it that hard to see that NE bears only about a 10% resemblence to the ones LDT has smoked in the past?

because that requires thought and looking below the surface. two things Chargers fans have proven themselves ill-equipped to handle.

of course, on the flip-side quite a few Pats fans seem to be ignoring the fact that the SD is fully healthy right now, while using stats from throughout the year when the d wasn't healthy. I know we don't really believe in using injuries as an excuse around here, but it's foolish to ignore the fact a team is healthy.

let's just chalk it up to bias and trying to make an argument in one's favor, regardless how relevant it is.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

THis has nothing to do with Kirwan or Brant, but I didn't feel like starting another thread for this question:

Why do people keep mentioning how well LDT has run on NE in the past?

Is it really that hard to see that LDT matchup against NE at their weakest points of any of the past 5 seasons?

Yeah, that Trotter columnist guy was on TV last night saying that Tomlinson has done well against NE. Yeah well that was 1) in 2002 when our run defense sucked and early last year when we had the Monty&Chad show in the middle.

Tomlinson may kick ass on Sunday but past history doesn't guarantee it.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Kirwan said a lot of what we've said about our offense. We know we can't block them for long, so go to the spread/shotgun/quick release before they can get there. The stuff he said about Tomlinson is encouraging. For those who missed it in the other thread, Football Outsiders' stats rank Tomlinson #1 among RB but only 13th in successfull runs - this means he's only above average for the median play but busts a lot of long ones. Which means if we tackle well, including the secondary when he busts through on some plays, we can contain him. Not stop him but contain him.

I had a post exploring this phenomenon another thread. The Bolts fans didn't like it. Labeled the post "lame" without really saying why. They just said, in effect, "he's done it before, and he's going to do it again on Sunday".

They're homers on another team's board, and with few exceptions, are not open to rational debate on the subject. Just blind, emotional chest thumping - you know, the kind you see your 5-year old son exhibit when he gets excited/miffed....

 

[PatsDparty]

I really think its just gonna come down to who wants it more. Look at the colts game last week, LJ is a notch below LT, and he just got shut down by a motivated Colts defense. Yeah, Herm's an idiot and can't adjust, but LJ's one of those players that "experts" look at an says can't be stopped, but only contained. I wouldnt not be surprised if we completely take LT away, as good as he is, Im more concerned with him catching balls as a receiver and taking one home, than I am him running the ball.