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OT - Thoughts on the rookie QBs to this point

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Seriously not going to lie but I envy those Teams long term future at the position over ours. Did I mention Trader Bill got hosed by a ROOKIE GM for Jimmy G.

We're drafting our next QB in 2020/2021 don't worry.
 
We see things differently on one point. Once a player gets into the NFL I pretty much burn the college tape from my mind and focus only on what they have done at this level. You seem to keep looking at the college tape and trying to project it to the NFL.

I don't think either idea is automatically wrong at this point. A good argument can be made to do both with such limited of game speed NFL reps. Jackson now has 2 preseason performances in the bag. It does beg the question, at what point do we all need to completely move on from the college tape? I don't know if there is a clear answer for that.

I do agree we can't judge all QBs the same, but i'm a believer that if a QB can't win in the pocket that he can't win consistently in the NFL. So far I feel confident saying no QB has disproved that. Maybe Jackson does but I just don't see it. He has too far to go and will need to depend on his legs for a long time. In the mean time he will get hurt sadly.

When it comes to Rosen I was a little hard on him perhaps, but stand by my prediction. I did say that he has a chance to prove me wrong as I did see some encouraging flashes from him and he did deliver some nice throws. He is clearly the #3 QB from this draft right now and I believe he is far ahead of Allen and Jackson.

While he had to deal with some bad snaps and below average pass blocking I saw a number of things that concerned me. Let's turn to the tape you posted (the same tape I watched).

:20 - I don't mind that he couldn't thread the needle on a well covered WR. I was concerned that he forced the first read when it wasn't there. He had protection this time but still made up his mind before the play to go to his first read. I didn't like that aspect of it.

:55 - He failed to sense the pressure on a deep drop. He actually backed up a bit too much initially, which made things harder on the LT. If he stays where the ball was snapped to him or only takes 1 or 2 steps back the LT can forced the DE around him. If he kept his depth reasonable there were 2 open guys underneath he could have gone to. This shows a bad feel for the pocket to some degree.

1:15 - Again he locks on his go to route and throws it into contested coverage. He may have been able to get it to 18 underneath (I think it was 18). Even if not, it would be a safer and smarter pass.

There are others things I could point out but these are the red flags that make me nervous. He seems to lock on to his first read way too often and will force it rather than scan the field. His pocket presence is questionable too. I think he also showed some promising things and has the chance to be a good QB. But I don't get the sense that is more likely to happen than not happen. Could be wrong on Rosen. I don't think I am on the other 2.

None have done much if anything at this level. All played limited in 1 preseason game besides Lamar & it was the HOF game.

You can't seriously look at these games & come to a genuine conclusion. It's not that I keep going back to the college tape, I'm not at all. I'm looking at the reps they've had & using my projections from my scale/grade.

Also one of the biggest issues we have on this board is opinion vs fact/evidence. It's great to have an opinion but when evidence suggest that it's a wrong opinion.

Initially you talked about Rosen dealing w pressure & the tape just disproves your opinion.

That said we're talking about extremely limited snaps. None of the big names played bad, they actually all showed something in a very small sample size.

At this point I'm not worried if someone "locked" onto a WR. Going through progressions is something most fans like to say to sound smart when in reality the team could be looking for certain things in a game that just doesn't matter. Not a shot at you at all but too many say it w/out really understanding what their looking at & is trying to be accomplished in that play. Every single QB locks on to guys almost every game. QB'S would be getting sacked 10+ times a game if they were tasked w surveying the field on every play.

Nothing wrong with what you think about the players & how you think they'll turn out. Again the tape just doesn't support that rn.
 
None have done much if anything at this level. All played limited in 1 preseason game besides Lamar & it was the HOF game.

You can't seriously look at these games & come to a genuine conclusion. It's not that I keep going back to the college tape, I'm not at all. I'm looking at the reps they've had & using my projections from my scale/grade.

Also one of the biggest issues we have on this board is opinion vs fact/evidence. It's great to have an opinion but when evidence suggest that it's a wrong opinion.

Initially you talked about Rosen dealing w pressure & the tape just disproves your opinion.

That said we're talking about extremely limited snaps. None of the big names played bad, they actually all showed something in a very small sample size.

At this point I'm not worried if someone "locked" onto a WR. Going through progressions is something most fans like to say to sound smart when in reality the team could be looking for certain things in a game that just doesn't matter. Not a shot at you at all but too many say it w/out really understanding what their looking at & is trying to be accomplished in that play. Every single QB locks on to guys almost every game. QB'S would be getting sacked 10+ times a game if they were tasked w surveying the field on every play.

Nothing wrong with what you think about the players & how you think they'll turn out. Again the tape just doesn't support that rn.

Thanks for clearing up how you're evaluating the players at this point. I seem to have misunderstood what you meant there. My bad.

I would agree 100% that any genuine conclusion is impossible. Yes, I'm just giving my opinion on the matter. I am trying to do my best to present facts to back up my opinion but in the end it is just a best guess on my part. based on the facts as I personally see them.

I do stand by my opinion that even early preseason tape can show a lot more than most give it credit for. Some guys just look like they belong, and some don't. I believe that tends to be an indicator of future success.

As for the tape disproving my opinion on how Rosen was dealing with pressure, I don't know exactly what you mean to be totally honest. If you're willing, would you talk more about where you think I might be wrong? If I'm making an obvious mistake I'd like to fix it for the future.

I did say in my first post I thought he held on to the ball too long and didn't give up on the play fast enough. I didn't mean that he held on to the ball for something like 5 seconds and caused his own sack. I meant more that when the pressure got to him he should have been faster to throw it away. I didn't mean to imply he had much time, because he didn't.

In the post of mine that you quoted here I also said he had below average blocking and bad snaps to deal with. Obviously not a good situation for any QB; particularly a rookie one in his first preseason game. Totally a fair point.

It's true locking on to a WR and not going through progressions isn't automatically a nail in the coffin, and all QBs focus on certain guys on occasion. I don't fault him for quickly dumping it off to designed screens or a hot read when he did those things. As for other WRs clearing out a spot to get a guy open on a designed play; I'm sure that happened a few times as the concept is fairly common. But if the play isn't there to be made you just don't force it in because that is the design.

As for your claim that the tape doesn't support my opinion, that's an entirely reasonable claim. Maybe you're right. But I looked at the tape a few times on each guy, and from what I've seen and how I interpreted the tape, that is my opinion and i stand by itt. I could end up being proven wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.
 
As for the tape disproving my opinion on how Rosen was dealing with pressure, I don't know exactly what you mean to be totally honest. If you're willing, would you talk more about where you think I might be wrong? If I'm making an obvious mistake I'd like to fix it for the future.

Sure I just thought he dealt w pressure really well. whether it was identifying where it was coming from, resetting, staying poised & finding his read/target. He def passed that test, that game imo. I actually thought he played really well overall & would have had better #'s if not for some drops & a few small miscues.

More to the original point




1) First play of his career. Identifies the Ingram coming through A gap. Doesn't flinch & hit the out.

2) 3rd pass low snap, both edge rusher win inside & are about to ruin his day. Rolls, resets & delivers a strike.

3) 4th pass LT gets beat around the arc w double swipe & is almost wrapped up. Easily could have went down. Anchors & gets his legs under him & hits Foster.

4)6th pass LA gets through on the blitz. Again sees it coming, doesn't flinch & delivers a nice, tight ball into a small window. Kirk looked comfortable in slow mo in terms of thinking Rosen would thread the needle, he did but prob could had a better chance if he got in the air.

Tbh most of his comp were under pressure as well as dealing w a few low snaps & passes that could have been caught. Thought he played really well & it was a case of looking better than the #'s suggested.
 
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