OT-ish: The gambling thread

[maust]

Back to Week 15:



Texans (-6) at Jets
Despite playing the Jete, Houston will be doubly motivated. The Texans are coming off a loss, and they are battling for a playoff bye and home field. The Jets have nothing to play for other than a more preferable tee time and earlier draft slot.

Did you hit that early? I couldn't get it below 7.

 

[fnordcircle]

$300 on the Pats -2. First time I've had to withdraw $ to bet since week 1, I'm pretty sure. So all in all, a good season. The Chiefs loss on the heels of losing to the Dolphins did me no favors.

 

[Joker]

Joe Kerr's Zen Question Of The day...Why Do They Have Casinos?

 

[maust]

Joe Kerr's Zen Question Of The day...Why Do They Have Casinos?

Cause that money isn't just gonna lose itself

 

[jmt57]

Did you hit that early? I couldn't get it below 7.

Yeah, that was from Wednesday when I jumped on that.

Thought for sure I had lost that $ until the very end of that game.

 

[jmt57]

Currently the Pats are giving 1.5 in Pittsburgh, looks pretty damn attractive to me but it could drop with the casual idiot liking the Steelers as a home dog. The O/U has already climbed to 52 after opening at 49, wish I had jumped on the open but I did get in at 49 1/2.

Keeping an eye out for a rise on Dallas +3 at Indy through tomorrow night, after that the Dallas money will start pushing it the wrong way.

Another line to watch is (don't laugh) Jax -7 hosting Washington. The Jax D would love nothing better than to take out their frustrations on the Buttfumbler. If the Skins money drives that line below 6 I will be looking for reasons not to hit that one hard (besides Jax's offense).


Thoughts?

I was extremely close to taking Dallas. To me they should be favored; the Cowboys are so improved since trading for Amari Cooper. Indy is too erratic, looking great for a few weeks thanks to their offensive line, then awful (e.g., at Jax). In the end it was a close call, but decided to stay away. I still might pull the trigger by buying a point, not sure yet.

I'm with you 100% on Washington. Jay Gruden seems to be okay with not winning another game, using injuries as an excuse. The 2018 Jaguars though .... can we trust them enough to back them at all?

 

[1960Pats]

I was extremely close to taking Dallas. To me they should be favored; the Cowboys are so improved since trading for Amari Cooper. Indy is too erratic, looking great for a few weeks thanks to their offensive line, then awful (e.g., at Jax). In the end it was a close call, but decided to stay away. I still might pull the trigger by buying a point, not sure yet.

I'm with you 100% on Washington. Jay Gruden seems to be okay with not winning another game, using injuries as an excuse. The 2018 Jaguars though .... can we trust them enough to back them at all?

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd bet on the Titans vs the Giants. I also like Dallas and Seattle. I'd also bet against Washington but like you I don't trust the Jags. If it were any other team playing the Skins I could see it.

One thing that I noticed is that there seems to be more underdogs who are winning outright in the second half of the season. At least compared to the first half. Any idea why?

I also have another question. Does a 1 point buy actually make a difference? It doesn't seem like it would.

Now for a statement that I wouldn't mind getting some input from bettors on. Since I've been keeping track of lines and results I've noticed that there aren't many games each year where the winner wins but doesn't cover. So far this year out of 267 games there have only been 35 where that was the case. There have also only been 5 ties.

That means that of the remaining 237 games the spread didn't matter if you just picked the winner. What would be wrong with ignoring the lines and just betting the teams to win or lose. It seems like you would win if you could pick the winner in 2/3 of the games. Am I seeing that correctly?

 

[maust]

I was extremely close to taking Dallas. To me they should be favored; the Cowboys are so improved since trading for Amari Cooper. Indy is too erratic, looking great for a few weeks thanks to their offensive line, then awful (e.g., at Jax). In the end it was a close call, but decided to stay away. I still might pull the trigger by buying a point, not sure yet.

I'm with you 100% on Washington. Jay Gruden seems to be okay with not winning another game, using injuries as an excuse. The 2018 Jaguars though .... can we trust them enough to back them at all?

I decided Dallas getting those points was an opportunity I couldn't pass up.

As bad as the Skins are right now, I just can't bring myself to trust Jax to score enough to cover -7.5 (hell that could easily be a 12-6, no TD game) but for sh!ts n giggles threw $100 at the 36 1/2 under.

I can't fathom why Seattle is only giving 3 1/2 to SF and when I can't understand a line at all usually that suffices to keep me away from a game. After all, the man didn't build Vegas by not paying attention. He does however sweeten lines that aren't drawing any sucker money and this could well be an attempt at an inverse confidence builder to draw in the clowns that throw money at credible home dogs by convincing them SF actually is credible in this one. They aren't, and despite my misgivings about touching a game when I don't quite understand the line I have for better or worse convinced myself I understand it enough here to jump on the Hawks.

 

[maust]

So that 'opportunity' I saw with Dallas getting points is looking a touch inopportune ATM

edit: Dallas getting 3 got smoked = -$100. The offensive ineptitude of Jags & Skins = +100 on the under. Early games = a wash

 

[jmt57]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd bet on the Titans vs the Giants. I also like Dallas and Seattle. I'd also bet against Washington but like you I don't trust the Jags. If it were any other team playing the Skins I could see it.

One thing that I noticed is that there seems to be more underdogs who are winning outright in the second half of the season. At least compared to the first half. Any idea why?

I also have another question. Does a 1 point buy actually make a difference? It doesn't seem like it would.

Now for a statement that I wouldn't mind getting some input from bettors on. Since I've been keeping track of lines and results I've noticed that there aren't many games each year where the winner wins but doesn't cover. So far this year out of 267 games there have only been 35 where that was the case. There have also only been 5 ties.

That means that of the remaining 237 games the spread didn't matter if you just picked the winner. What would be wrong with ignoring the lines and just betting the teams to win or lose. It seems like you would win if you could pick the winner in 2/3 of the games. Am I seeing that correctly?

In this case the one point most certainly did not make a difference. The concept is to trade off some potential winnings versus a higher chance of winning. Instead of a 3-point game being a push, you win.

In close games it will indeed be rare for a team to win but not cover; there are very few scores/point differentials when that would happen. That strategy of picking a team to lose but cover the spread comes in to play on larger lines. For example, how many teams that were 6+ (or 7+, or 8+, or 10+) point favorites won - but did cover? How many that were big underdogs by that amount lost straight up - but covered the spread?

For example, the Rams have lost only two games this season - yet they are just 5-6-2 against the spread. Similarly the Texans are mow 11-3 - but only 6-7-1 ATS. On the other hand the Browns have a losing record - but are 9-5 ATS, which is 4th best in the league right now.

 

[fnordcircle]

Whew. Brutal. $1200 down the last 3 bets. I'll need to go back and figure out where that puts me for the year. I'm cruising towards breaking even at best, though.

 

[luuked]

Whew. Brutal. $1200 down the last 3 bets. I'll need to go back and figure out where that puts me for the year. I'm cruising towards breaking even at best, though.

So time to triple down, right ?

 

[jmt57]

Give or take a half point or so depending on where you shop, here are the Week 16 odds after Sunday's game and MNF Saints-Panthers still in the first half.


Saturday 12/22
Redskins at Titans (-10), o/u 37
Ravens at Chargers (-4½), 44½

Sunday 12/23 Early
Buccaneers at Cowboys (-7), 46½
Bills at Patriots (-12½), 45
Falcons at Panthers (-4), 49½
Jaguars at Dolphins (-4½), 39½
Giants at Colts (-9½), 46½
Texans at Eagles (-1), 45
Vikings (-5½) at Lions, 43½
Packers at Jets (-½), 44
Bengals at Browns (-7), 45½

Sunday 12/23 Late
Rams (-14) at Cardinals, 47½
Bears (-4) at Niners, 43
Steelers at Saints (-6), 57

Night Games
SNF: Chiefs (-2½) at Seahawks, 53
MNF: Broncos (-2½) at Raiders, 44½


- Jets favored or even a pick'em vs Packers?
- When was the last time the Browns were favored by a touchdown?
- Pats line has increased from 10½ to 12½ or 13, despite their loss
- Texans - Eagles line may be an overreaction based on most recent games
- Lowest over/unders: Wash at Tenn, Jax at Miami
- Highest over/unders: Pitt at NO, KC at Sea
- Biggest road favorite: Rams -14 at Arizona
- Biggest home favorite: Patriots -12½ vs Bills

 

[Soliel]

If I’m real lucky, I’ll break even for the year but it looks more likely to be down by 2k or so. I lost a ton on the Steelers game.

 

[maust]

No way to dress up that pig of a weekend. After washing on the light early bets the Pats, under and Hawks all resulted in gone money. - $750 on the weekend puts the Santa Fund at + $4050 on the year. Looking back over it I have to say Chicago & Cleveland have been my consistent moneymakers. Although it appears the days of the Brownies getting stupid points are done with

 

[maust]

Neglected to post here earlier. Bit on the 38 1/2 under in the Skins/Titans game $250 and another $250 on the Skins +11. There's nothing to like about tonight's game with the Chargers giving for and the O/U at 42 1/2.

 

[fnordcircle]

$300 on the pats -13. Hate that spread but whatever.

If things go right I'm gonna get a table shower and a four hands massage on Christmas.

 

[maust]

So there I am sitting pretty. Titans up 19-16, Skins in possession of the ball at their own 15 with 6 seconds left. Spread and under in the bag and up $500. Butler intercepts the pass at the TN 44 and instead of going down to seal the win decides to risk a return that can't help his own team but could give Washington a chance to strip him of the ball and win the game. Naturally he returns it for 6 and blows up both the under and my comfy $500 double dip.

So it's football déjà vu all over again. That's right, once more...Malcolm F Butler, thanks for absolutely f'n nothing (literally)...again...in the same damn year

 

[fnordcircle]

So there I am sitting pretty. Titans up 19-16, Skins in possession of the ball at their own 15 with 6 seconds left. Spread and under in the bag and up $500. Butler intercepts the pass at the TN 44 and instead of going down to seal the win decides to risk a return that can't help his own team but could give Washington a chance to strip him of the ball and win the game. Naturally he returns it for 6 and blows up both the under and my comfy $500 double dip.

So it's football déjà vu all over again. That's right, once more...Malcolm F Butler, thanks for absolutely f'n nothing (literally)...again...in the same damn year

UGH, sorry dude.

 

[maust]

UGH, sorry dude.

Sometimes...it's ...just...smdh.
Seriously, what kind of a moron makes that int on his own side of the 5o under those circumstances and risks returning the damn ball ???
fml