Offensive Improvement?

[mgteich]

My point was there was no reason to cherry pick stats. We agree that the offense has not improved significantly.

The premise of the thread was that the offense has improved in the past few weeks, so I'm not cherry picking stats. It's a fact that we failed to convert 3rd downs at an alarming rate in the past 3 games (particularly 2 of the 3). It so happens that we also lost the past 2 of 3.

Perhaps there is more of a problem in the idea that we've improved so greatly on offense lately, when 2 of the last 3 games say otherwise, than the fact that you thought I was "cherry picking" stats?

If the premise of the thread was that we've improved since game one or something like that, then you'd have been right about the cherry picking. I find it somewhat strange to start a thread about the offense's improvement lately, when the past 3 weeks have shown a horrid offense twice.

 

[supafly]

My point was there was no reason to cherry pick stats. We agree that the offense has not improved significantly.

Oh, you mean the OP cherry picking stats then? Sorry for the confusion. I thought you were referring to me cherry picking stats, which I couldn't understand since I listed them from the last 3 games (which was the idea of the thread that we've seen an improvement lately).

 

[supafly]

I absolutely agree the offense has not improved in my opinion, it has been consistent all season, it played the two games in poor weather against the Jets and Bengals and scored under 15 points other than that its between 20-30 points in every game.

I would actually say it may have regressed in the last 3 games.

I'm not necessarily meaning to be a downer. I still have a ton of hope for the offense of course, and there is good reason to be optimistic; but to this point I just don't agree that there has been much of an improvement--at least lately anyway.

To this point, I think we're still in very much of an unknown period with the 2013 Patriots team, as they are mediocre on both sides of the ball with the potential to be 'good.'

Going into the bye at 7-2 with back to back wins vs MIA and PIT would be key to staying in competition for the #2 seed and winning the division.

 

[ausbacker]

I'm not necessarily meaning to be a downer. I still have a ton of hope for the offense of course, and there is good reason to be optimistic; but to this point I just don't agree that there has been much of an improvement--at least lately anyway.

To this point, I think we're still in very much of an unknown period with the 2013 Patriots team, as they are mediocre on both sides of the ball with the potential to be 'good.'

Going into the bye at 7-2 with back to back wins vs MIA and PIT would be key to staying in competition for the #2 seed and winning the division.

It's equally dangerous to plunge one's head into the ground and ignore the obvious deficiencies supa. Providing a balanced approach to an argument not only stimulates discussion but forces many to acknowledge the obvious.

 

[VJCPatriot]

They key is to beat Miami next week and build momentum. Pittsburgh isn't nearly as tough as they used to be either so it is possible to win two games heading into the bye.

The offense is slowly improving and getting healthier. We can't have all those missed routes/reads, dropped catches, and turnovers if we want to win though. I'd like to see that 1.x turnover per game stat dropped to more like .5 per game. The team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the game. Possessions are that important. The pick 6 that Brady threw in the Jets game is key to that loss aside from the ref 'jobbing' that we got.

Gronk and Amendola healthy is what I am looking forward to. Thompkins is just going to get better. And I hope Dobson 'gets it' sooner rather than later because he is oozing potential but just not quite turned the corner yet.

 

[IllegalContact]

have the pats had the same skill guys available for 2 consecutive weeks?

 

[supafly]

have the pats had the same skill guys available for 2 consecutive weeks?

Ridley, Edelman, Dobson, Thompkins, Hooman, Collie, Bolden, and Blount have all played in 2 consecutive weeks.

Amendola and Gronk have not played in a full 2 consecutive weeks.

 

[RIpats88]

Ridley, Edelman, Dobson, Thompkins, Hooman, Collie, Bolden, and Blount have all played in 2 consecutive weeks.

Amendola and Gronk have not played in a full 2 consecutive weeks.

therein lies the issue...those last two listed are/were expected to be brady's #1 and #2 targets.

as brady's targets get healthier I expect the offense to get better. it all starts up front though...if the OL cant keep brady standing or give him time its all for naught

 

[supafly]

therein lies the issue...those last two listed are/were expected to be brady's #1 and #2 targets.

as brady's targets get healthier I expect the offense to get better. it all starts up front though...if the OL cant keep brady standing or give him time its all for naught

Absolutely. I think we're all in agreement there. The "problem" of course is that you have to play with who is out there, and we can't constantly use the excuse as fans that "we should've been better if player X were out there." I see a lot of posters doing that in regards to the current defense at the moment. The reality is that both Mayo and Wilfork are out for the year, Kelly doesn't appear to be coming back anytime soon, and Talib is a major unknown as his flareups with the hip have been occurring for the last 4 yrs in a row now.

Either way, there's definite reason for optimism moving forward, but I have a hard time buying into the notion that we have improved on offense, particularly lately as the thread suggests. Obviously no disrespect intended to the OP and his thoughts, I am just stating my opinion.

 

[RIpats88]

oh, I would agree I dont think we have improved as of lately...hopefully brady can put together a solid game against Miami, he should be more confident having 3 guys he trusts out there in Gronk/Amendola/edelman....if we can get to the bye healthy and get Vereen back this offense should be ok the 2nd half of the season.

i'd rather be in our position than Green Bay's where they are losing their targets for the 2nd half

 

[ivanvamp]

Through the first five games, here's what the Pats averaged:

19.0 ppg
343.4 ypg
18.4 first downs
1.2 turnovers

The last two games, here's what the Pats have averaged:

28.5 ppg
335.5 ypg
23.5 first downs
1.0 turnovers


Obviously the Pats got 7 points this past week thanks to a pick-six. If you take that away, the Pats still are averaging 25.0 ppg over the last two weeks, which is still an improvement by about a touchdown over what they were averaging the first 5 weeks of the season.

Updating this for the last two games…

First 5 games:

19.0 ppg
343.4 ypg
18.4 first downs
1.2 turnovers

Last 4 games:

34.8 ppg
383.3 ypg
24.8 first downs
1.0 turnovers

As guys get healthy, we are seeing the offense make some strides. With the bye week allowing further healing for Brady, Gronk, and Amendola, plus the return of Vereen, I think we'll see the Pats' offense resemble what it has the past few years over the second half of the season.

 

[Kontradiction]

Updating this for the last two games…

First 5 games:

19.0 ppg
343.4 ypg
18.4 first downs
1.2 turnovers

Last 4 games:

34.8 ppg
383.3 ypg
24.8 first downs
1.0 turnovers

As guys get healthy, we are seeing the offense make some strides. With the bye week allowing further healing for Brady, Gronk, and Amendola, plus the return of Vereen, I think we'll see the Pats' offense resemble what it has the past few years over the second half of the season.

If the defense gets back on track, we're looking at a Super Bowl contender. What's scary is that neither unit has performed to the best of their ability in the same game. It's either been the defense that's been absolutely shut down as the offense struggles, or it's been the offense lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine as the defense has issues with stopping the run and/or the pass.

 

[ivanvamp]

If the defense gets back on track, we're looking at a Super Bowl contender. What's scary is that neither unit has performed to the best of their ability in the same game. It's either been the defense that's been absolutely shut down as the offense struggles, or it's been the offense lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine as the defense has issues with stopping the run and/or the pass.

I think two things about the defense: First, losing Wilfork, Kelly, and Mayo really will prove to be too much, especially as other players get dinged up (Gregory, Talib, Dennard, Ninkovich, etc.).

But second, maybe that'll be countered by the continued development of players like Chandler Jones (an absolute beast), Hightower, Chris Jones, Dennard, Ryan, etc., plus the return of Talib. The Pats are the #3 defense in the NFL by opponent's passer rating. And that's not a small thing.

If the offense continues to get guys healthy and grow into what it's capable of being, they'll be tough to handle on that side of the ball. And if the defense is a top 10 scoring defense, that gets turnovers and is competitive against the pass, they could be a very tough out.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think two things about the defense: First, losing Wilfork, Kelly, and Mayo really will prove to be too much, especially as other players get dinged up (Gregory, Talib, Dennard, Ninkovich, etc.).

But second, maybe that'll be countered by the continued development of players like Chandler Jones (an absolute beast), Hightower, Chris Jones, Dennard, Ryan, etc., plus the return of Talib. The Pats are the #3 defense in the NFL by opponent's passer rating. And that's not a small thing.

If the offense continues to get guys healthy and grow into what it's capable of being, they'll be tough to handle on that side of the ball. And if the defense is a top 10 scoring defense, that gets turnovers and is competitive against the pass, they could be a very tough out.

Talib, Ninkovich, and Gregory being back and healthy will help the pass defense. They will need to get the run defense figured out, though. If not, that will be their undoing in the postseason. Whether that's Sopoaga playing more snaps or inserting Armstead into the line-up, I don't know. But they need definite improvement there.

 

[ivanvamp]

Talib, Ninkovich, and Gregory being back and healthy will help the pass defense. They will need to get the run defense figured out, though. If not, that will be their undoing in the postseason. Whether that's Sopoaga playing more snaps or inserting Armstead into the line-up, I don't know. But they need definite improvement there.

Isn't it ironic? For years the Pats have had one of the best run defenses in the league but even scrub QBs routinely threw for 300+ yards on their horrid pass defense. Now, their pass defense is really good (#3 in passer rating, t#3 in sacks, #8 in yds/att, #2 in completion %), but they struggle against the run.

Personally, if I had to go one way or the other, I'd rather struggle against the run and be great against the pass, since the NFL is mainly a passing league now. Of course, it would be great to be good at both.

 

[Kontradiction]

Isn't it ironic? For years the Pats have had one of the best run defenses in the league but even scrub QBs routinely threw for 300+ yards on their horrid pass defense. Now, their pass defense is really good (#3 in passer rating, t#3 in sacks, #8 in yds/att, #2 in completion %), but they struggle against the run.

Personally, if I had to go one way or the other, I'd rather struggle against the run and be great against the pass, since the NFL is mainly a passing league now. Of course, it would be great to be good at both.

They weren't struggling against the run at the beginning of the year. The losses of Mayo and Wilfork were absolute killers.

 

[ivanvamp]

They weren't struggling against the run at the beginning of the year. The losses of Mayo and Wilfork were absolute killers.

I agree 100%. And that's why I'm not super optimistic that they'll be able to solve that issue this year. I think the objective from here on out will be to simply not suck against the run, be really good against the pass, and hope the offense plays well from here on out.