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My Six with 3 Weeks to go

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VrabelMayeWin

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Although I would still love to trade up for Julio Jones here is my realistic Pick Six for the first three rounds :

1a - Cameron Heyward. It's a little disconcerting that we only had the area scout at his workout; I'm assuming Watt and Jordan are gone. Sleeper for this pick, Mikel Leshore

1b - Justin Houston. Not sure we'll take a LB this high, Leshore is interesting here too.

2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role. I do like Ras I Dowling here too and could be talked into a different TE later or maybe next year.

2b - Rodney Hudson. Great fit for our offense, undersized but I think he can beef up at least a little.

3a - Jerrel Jernigan. Personally I would take a shot at Greg Little but Jernigan could be the next Branch, drafting him here gives him and Price a year before we really need them (barring injuries)

3b - Shane Vereen. Or pick your mid round RB, there's so many of them. Vereen has a little more size than some of the others.

(bonus) 4 - Clint Boling. Not sure he gets down here but if he does I'm taking him.

I know it's way too offense heavy for many of you but I used the two #1s on defense. We have a TON of #1 and #2 picks on defense (Wilfork, Brace, Mayo, Spikes, Cunningham, Meriweather, Chung, McCourtey, Butler) and I'm adding two more. A mostly defensive draft will result in a terrible thinning out of the offensive talent with them getting older/end of contracts.
 
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If this is how the draft went down, I wouldn't be all that disappointed.

One scenario I could see happening is Bill picking up another TE in the draft as a part of a offensive transitioning. Use more 2 TE sets and and diminish the slot receivers part in the offense. I'm not certain Welker will be here in 2012, because Bill doesn't see as much value in the slot receiver anymore, and let Edelman take on that role. And from the 2 TE sets essentially use the TEs as short/intermediate inside the numbers options and the WRs as more deep/outside the numbers options. Maybe one play you spread the left TE out and the next the right TE, so the defense gets a harder time scheming?

So maybe more of a deep threat WR instead of Jernigan? Maybe a switch of draft position of the TE and WR, so you pick the legitimate deep threat WR (assuming the value is there) with 2a and maybe more of a project TE with 3a.


Tell me I'm not completely crazy?
 
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Although I would still love to trade up for Julio Jones here is my realistic Pick Six for the first three rounds :

1a - Cameron Heyward. It's a little disconcerting that we only had the area scout at his workout; I'm assuming Watt and Jordan are gone. Sleeper for this pick, Mikel Leshore

1b - Justin Houston. Not sure we'll take a LB this high, Leshore is interesting here too.

2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role. I do like Ras I Dowling here too and could be talked into a different TE later or maybe next year.

2b - Rodney Hudson. Great fit for our offense, undersized but I think he can beef up at least a little.

3a - Jerrel Jernigan. Personally I would take a shot at Greg Little but Jernigan could be the next Branch, drafting him here gives him and Price a year before we really need them (barring injuries)

3b - Shane Vereen. Or pick your mid round RB, there's so many of them. Vereen has a little more size than some of the others.

(bonus) 4 - Clint Boling. Not sure he gets down here but if he does I'm taking him.

I know it's way too offense heavy for many of you but I used the two #1s on defense. We have a TON of #1 and #2 picks on defense (Wilfork, Brace, Mayo, Spikes, Cunningham, Meriweather, Chung, McCourtey, Butler) and I'm adding two more. A mostly defensive draft will result in a terrible thinning out of the offensive talent with them getting older/end of contracts.

Nice but I have a couple edits. If 3-4 Ends Watt and Jordan are gone and BB still wants to go DE its probably Muhammad Wilkerson. I like Heyward as well, but he can probably be had at #27 or #33.

Also, while I like Rodney Hudson, the familiarity with James Carpenter ( Alabama ) or Marcus Gilbert ( Florida ) come into play here. PFW has them both moving up into the second round and the Urban Meyer and/or Saban relationshiips could come into play here.
 
I don't find this offense-heavy. We do indeed have a young defense.

1a HEYWARD is a fine choice, although Belichick might trade down a couple of picks if he can.

1b HOUSTON is a risky pick for us, but a good risk.

2a RUDOLPH may be there, but likely not. I have no problem with a TE, but our need is for devlopmental blocking TE. I agree that we can keep 4, especially this year. You mentioned DOWLING. I think that he or WILLIAMS or MOORE are all better picks here if we are choosing between TE and DB. It's now or never for both positions with regard to a top prospect.

Personally, I would prefer a guard.

2b CANNON is not my choice, but the BGA is right here or the BTA.

3a This is a place for a second guard, perhaps BOLING or RACKLEY.

3b I'm fine with "pick your rb"

BOTTOM LINE
I would emphasize the OL lots more than you did. You added CANNON and hope for Boling in the 4th (not going to happen). I think that we need at LEAST two additions to the OL, preferably three.

Although I would still love to trade up for Julio Jones here is my realistic Pick Six for the first three rounds :

1a - Cameron Heyward. It's a little disconcerting that we only had the area scout at his workout; I'm assuming Watt and Jordan are gone. Sleeper for this pick, Mikel Leshore

1b - Justin Houston. Not sure we'll take a LB this high, Leshore is interesting here too.

2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role. I do like Ras I Dowling here too and could be talked into a different TE later or maybe next year.

2b - Rodney Hudson. Great fit for our offense, undersized but I think he can beef up at least a little.

3a - Jerrel Jernigan. Personally I would take a shot at Greg Little but Jernigan could be the next Branch, drafting him here gives him and Price a year before we really need them (barring injuries)

3b - Shane Vereen. Or pick your mid round RB, there's so many of them. Vereen has a little more size than some of the others.

(bonus) 4 - Clint Boling. Not sure he gets down here but if he does I'm taking him.

I know it's way too offense heavy for many of you but I used the two #1s on defense. We have a TON of #1 and #2 picks on defense (Wilfork, Brace, Mayo, Spikes, Cunningham, Meriweather, Chung, McCourtey, Butler) and I'm adding two more. A mostly defensive draft will result in a terrible thinning out of the offensive talent with them getting older/end of contracts.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I would emphasize the OL lots more than you did. You added CANNON and hope for Boling in the 4th (not going to happen). I think that we need at LEAST two additions to the OL, preferably three.
Actually I picked Hudson, not Cannon

Boling could happen in the 4th, there's not a lot of mocks that go that deep from trusted sites but this one :

Uncanny Mock extended

has Boling going 4 picks after out #4 so I don't think it's impossible and I the guy who did this is a reputable guy so it's somewhat reasonable.
 
Nice but I have a couple edits. If 3-4 Ends Watt and Jordan are gone and BB still wants to go DE its probably Muhammad Wilkerson. I like Heyward as well, but he can probably be had at #27 or #33.
I am OK with Wilkerson but we usually take players from big conferences and big schools in round one which is why I expect Heyward over Wilkerson.
 
1a - Cameron Heyward. It's a little disconcerting that we only had the area scout at his workout; I'm assuming Watt and Jordan are gone. Sleeper for this pick, Mikel Leshore

1b - Justin Houston. Not sure we'll take a LB this high, Leshore is interesting here too.

If the Pats exit the middle of day 2 with a DE that can play 3-4 end/4-3 DT/4-3 outside rush AND a rush linebacker, hard to argue with that. I have Jordan and Sheard as my targets but at a certain point it is just nitpicking and you have to trust Belichick has the pulse of these guys.

2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role. I do like Ras I Dowling here too and could be talked into a different TE later or maybe next year.

Assuming his health checks out, I'm not against this move. I would like it better if Crumpler were cut (hate to lose his locker room presence) so that Rudolph would get the reps he needs. Rudolph, as an all-around TE, is clearly the best in this draft class and you rarely regret getting guys like that.

2b - Rodney Hudson. Great fit for our offense, undersized but I think he can beef up at least a little.

(bonus) 4 - Clint Boling. Not sure he gets down here but if he does I'm taking him.

Must get Boling. An ideal fit at guard for the Pats. Hudson...not so much. Can't anchor against bigger interior defenders and the last thing the Pats need is trash all around Brady's legs. Sign Mankins, draft Boling, draft a Koppen replacement that can anchor (Kirkpatrick?),

3a - Jerrel Jernigan. Personally I would take a shot at Greg Little but Jernigan could be the next Branch, drafting him here gives him and Price a year before we really need them (barring injuries)

OK with this as long as you flush one of the existing receivers. Don't want to spend a relatively high 3rd on a guy who could be 6th on a depth chart where only 4 guys get meaningful work and only 3 guys get the bulk of the practice/game reps.

3b - Shane Vereen. Or pick your mid round RB, there's so many of them. Vereen has a little more size than some of the others.

Seems like the right place to get a RB. No great urgency to go any earlier. Even in the 4th there still should be reasonable options.
 
2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role.

One scenario I could see happening is Bill picking up another TE in the draft as a part of a offensive transitioning. Use more 2 TE sets and and diminish the slot receivers part in the offense. I'm not certain Welker will be here in 2012, because Bill doesn't see as much value in the slot receiver anymore, and let Edelman take on that role. And from the 2 TE sets essentially use the TEs as short/intermediate inside the numbers options and the WRs as more deep/outside the numbers options. Maybe one play you spread the left TE out and the next the right TE, so the defense gets a harder time scheming?

Tell me I'm not completely crazy?

Assuming his health checks out, I'm not against this move. I would like it better if Crumpler were cut (hate to lose his locker room presence) so that Rudolph would get the reps he needs. Rudolph, as an all-around TE, is clearly the best in this draft class and you rarely regret getting guys like that.

WOW.

I am amazed, shocked, and impressed that there is so much sympathy for drafting Kyle Rudolph!! :rocker:

***

Don't get me wrong: I would not.

But it's not because I'm down on Rudolph, who I think is AWESOME, thank you.

It's because I'm targeting other players for that gig.

***

As I've bloviated, before, I believe that Coach Bill the Mad Genius has tore a fresh hole in the ranks of our 31 Rivals with the accession of Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez, no less than 3 Hybrids that can provide substantial threats both as Blockers and as Receivers.

Of course both Crumpler and Hernandez were used predominantly in one way or the other, but their ability to perform both ~ though certainly not equally ~ expanded our options and, thus, made us appreciably more dangerous.

This Strategic Shift was especially effective in this Era of Faster + Smaller Defenses.

***

I say: Let's exploit this Breach in the Enemies' Front.

Let's haul in more Super Hybrids ~ true Dual Threats ~ and open up Triple Tight End Formations!!



Prospects on My Wish List


Tight Ends ~ Alge Crumper


Will Yeatman ~ 6.6/275 ~ Free Agent

Will Yeatman is my favorite, here: an ADP Free Agent who I have us drafting in the 7th, in my current Mock. He's a formerly devout LaCrosse player. 6.6/275. He is an exceptional athlete, and raw as ALL get out, but has IMMENSE potential not only as an All Pro Blocker, but as a pretty good receiver, as well. Wes Bunting has suggested that he might be better served converting to O Tackle, a la my 2010 Super Binkie and current Patriot, Steve Maneri.

I'm not so sure that it's the best way to go: I place great value on a Tight End who can ~ potentially ~ develop into the weapon that I believe Yeatman could. And there're some exceptional O Tackles coming on line, next year, to say nothing of my current Super Binkie, Willie Smith, who is, amazingly, still looking at an ADP of the 5th or 6th round. But considering that Yeatman only just recently got off the LaCrosse ~ where I presume he needed to aggressively keep the pounds off ~ and is already currently listed at 275, it strikes me that he might much more naturally put on another 30 pounds than, say, Steven Maneri, himself.

Maneri was listed at about 265 last year, currently at 290. And while that number's been up there for a while, giving me hope that it's up beyond 300, where it seems that it needs to be...I have my doubts as to whether he's going to be able to project the violent, explosive blocking he produced, as a college Tight End, to an equally violent and explosive Pro O Tackle. Mind you: Steve Maneri actually made a point to target us, last Autumn, and that is certainly encouraging.

Lee Smith ~ 6.6/265 ~ 7th Round

Lee Smith carries the same concerns in my eyes, being 6.6/265, the same weight as Maneri, a year ago. To get to 305, Maneri or Smith would have to increase their body mass by a full 15 PERCENT. I am just very skeptical that either will be able to do so in a way that will allow them to retain the explosiveness and violence that rocketed them both up my Boards in the first place. In any case, Lee Smith, one of my very first Binkies in this year's Draft, back in Autumn, remains on my list, and even gets a bump up, with Crumpler's serious concerns.

I should also add, though, that if the Rosters do not get expanded to 60 ~ and there is little reason, at this point, to think that they will be ~ I might prefer to reduce or eliminate the presence of the predominantly blocking ~ Alge Crumpler ~ Tight End from the roster, in favor of expanding the other two roles. It seems to me that a Tight End who is an equally serious threat to Block OR Receive ~ the Rob Gronkowski "Wing Back" position ~ is FAR more menacing than a guy, like Crumpler, who is almost certainly going to be blocking, on any given play.


Wing Backs ~ Rob Gronkowski


Jordan Cameron ~ 6.5/255 ~ 3rd Round

Jordan Cameron is FLYING up the boards, of course, which is a damned shame, because he was looking phenomenal as a Deep Late Rounder. Now, his current ADP is the 3rd. Even there, however, he'd be a bargain, for he has an INTOXICATING receiving skill set, and the perfect frame to become an exceptional Blocker in time. Now he is a VERY recent BasketBall conversion ~ just caught his first pass just this past year!! ~ so he is raw as hell...But he is catching on RAPIDLY, and carries unmistakable Star Potential.

Brett Brackett ~ 6.6/240 ~ Free Agent

Brackett is currently lighter than you would like for Wing Back, though he's certainly got the frame to put on another 20 pounds. He's a former high school Quarter Back and college Wide Receiver, and he's not too fast, either. Even so, I think the kid is a really natural, instinctive route runner and receiver who could be very effective in the short passing game. And his unusual resume should be of great help in mastering those aspects of the game. Best of all, though, is his well earned reputation as a violent, passionate, and FEROCIOUS blocker.


Wing Ends ~ Aaron Hernandez


Lance Kendricks ~ 6.3/243 ~ 3rd Round

Lance Kendricks is a kid I am just flat out CRAZY about ~ a true Priority Binky. His size makes him a Wing End, not a Wing Back, but this guy is an absolutely FEROCIOUS Blocker. Everything I read about him lauds LAVISH praise about his tenacity, his passion, his technique, and his FEROCITY as a Blocker. And as a Receiver, he is DEADLY: Good Burst, superior Navigational Skills, excellent Speed, and soft hands, but what makes him truly dangerous are his INSTINCTS. I'd see him as more of a 60/40 Receiver/Blocker than Hernandez ~ my Alpha Priority Super Binkie, last year ~ making him much more of an Hybrid, and, therefore, much more dangerous.

Julius Thomas ~ 6.5/245 ~ 5th Round

Julius Thomas has a startlingly similar story to Jordan Cameron: A BasketBall conversion who didn't catch his first pass until just this past year. High Upside. Raw as hell, but learning VERY rapidly. He doesn't quite have the size or speed that Cameron has, though. And he's rawer. Even so, the size + speed combo is very intriguing.

o
 
As you see, I'm in agreement with you.

So I'm afraid you're in trouble, on that account.

Aww, shoot. I guess next stop is the loony bin then. :singing:
 
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If we ended up with Heyward and Houston after a round of drafting, I'll be ecstatic. And I follow the logic with Rudolph, I just dont think its at all realistic. We hit the homeruns at TE last year, and I think we'll go either Oline or RB with that 3rd pick. Rudolph sliding to the early 2nd might represent hellacious value to other teams. Not for this one. Not considering he'd be a reserve player. And I dont buy into us phasing out the slot WR role. Welker had a hell of a season considering he was coming off knee surgery. Trust me. In this his contract year, he'll probably be completely lights out.
 
Although I would still love to trade up for Julio Jones here is my realistic Pick Six for the first three rounds :

1a - Cameron Heyward. It's a little disconcerting that we only had the area scout at his workout; I'm assuming Watt and Jordan are gone. Sleeper for this pick, Mikel Leshore

1b - Justin Houston. Not sure we'll take a LB this high, Leshore is interesting here too.

2a - Kyle Rudolph. Don't be shy, I'm ready to get blasted for this. Crumpler has a year left, we can carry 4 TE and this sets us up with Gronk & Rudolph as true TE with Hernandez in his move TE role. I do like Ras I Dowling here too and could be talked into a different TE later or maybe next year.

2b - Rodney Hudson. Great fit for our offense, undersized but I think he can beef up at least a little.

3a - Jerrel Jernigan. Personally I would take a shot at Greg Little but Jernigan could be the next Branch, drafting him here gives him and Price a year before we really need them (barring injuries)

3b - Shane Vereen. Or pick your mid round RB, there's so many of them. Vereen has a little more size than some of the others.

(bonus) 4 - Clint Boling. Not sure he gets down here but if he does I'm taking him.

Nice!

I'm pretty much a fan of all those guys, especially Heyward. He is at the top of my mock, along with Danny Watkins and Johnny Patrick. I'm still debating if Allen Bailey, Jabaal Sheard or Greg Romeus are likely to be Patriots.
 
:ugh:

Everything before the third round leaves me shuddering. Good luck.
 
:ugh:

Everything before the third round leaves me shuddering. Good luck.
I wish I'd waited a day as my PFW book finally showed up; I'll be changing this in a week, as will most people's lists. My biggest problem is our biggest need (pass rusher) is the most unpredictable group in the draft as most would be changing positions for us and Bill has never drafted a pass rushing OLB in the first round so it's tough sledding to come up with a good list.
 
I wish I'd waited a day as my PFW book finally showed up; I'll be changing this in a week, as will most people's lists. My biggest problem is our biggest need (pass rusher) is the most unpredictable group in the draft as most would be changing positions for us and Bill has never drafted a pass rushing OLB in the first round so it's tough sledding to come up with a good list.
And I think few people would have picked Cunningham as a conversion project in the second. It's why I look at an energizer bunny like Kerrigan and say "IF" NE were to consider an OLB conversion in round one, he's got the Purdue pedigree and the overachiever label to think he would work at it. I think it more likely they shop DEs early and taking OLB pot luck late.
 
I wish I'd waited a day as my PFW book finally showed up; I'll be changing this in a week, as will most people's lists.

I doubt it.

I respect your full disclosure, Bro ~ seriously.

But the days of waiting for FootBall mags passed about 15 years ago.
 
I doubt it.

I respect your full disclosure, Bro ~ seriously.

But the days of waiting for FootBall mags passed about 15 years ago.
I just meant that in the last three weeks a lot of people's want lists will change for whatever reason.

Mine changes with PFW because it's one of my more trusted sources. I was very surprised as the more negative report on Heyward than I expected, not an effort issue but an overall "less athletic" report than I have been thinking so I may have had him overrated.

But therein lies my problem. DE is a safe place to look as need fits value for Bill there. But if Watt and Jordan are gone then there's Heyward or Wilkerson but the latter is from a smaller school which usually leads to us not taking him in the first round.

Assuming we keep that pick - which we may not but it's the only assumption we can make right now - I am starting to think we'll take the BPA even if it's Mark Ingram, OT or Aaron Williams as a Safety. We have so many picks to fill needs that we don't need to reach at #17 for the need.
 
And I think few people would have picked Cunningham as a conversion project in the second. It's why I look at an energizer bunny like Kerrigan and say "IF" NE were to consider an OLB conversion in round one, he's got the Purdue pedigree and the overachiever label to think he would work at it. I think it more likely they shop DEs early and taking OLB pot luck late.
Cunningham is why I can't help but look at the guys like Sheard, Reed, etc, I just can't begin to guess where we go there which is why I put Houston in almost as a placeholder for "pick your pass rusher". Reed may have been a better pick there. Three weeks to go and I'm struggling this year.
 
... Wilkerson but the latter is from a smaller school which usually leads to us not taking him in the first round.
True, 90% of NE first round picks have been from BCS schools, then again why would that number give anyone pause in a football factory BCS system? The issue isn't one of quantity, it's player quality and that outlier - Mankins - proves there's no hard and fast rule to apply in this instance.
 
I don't see the value of getting Heyward at #17. I think we could fall back some to pick him up.
 
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