My Absurdly Early Pats' 2015 Draft Big Board

[everlong]

I think he'll get over drafted on his athletic ability. If there weren't other edge options at the top of the draft maybe top ten but I think top 20 is assured.

 

[mgteich]

2. It's important to think about what a "reach" means. I'm firmly in the belief that teams should reach to fill needs. By that I mean (1) that teams shouldn't take a player in a given round who they don't consider worth taking in that round, and (2) that teams shouldn't take a lower rated player ahead of a higher rated player based on need. But there's a ton of wiggle room. If a team has 2 players rated roughly equally, then factors such as positional need, estimated market value, and availability of alternatives are all very valid considerations.

Yes, there is a ton of wiggle room. I could see this scenario happening

BACKDROP AS THE DRAFT MOVES PAST PICK 16
1) Belichick believes that he can get a starting LG at 64, at 97 or at a move up from 96.
2) Belichick believes that he can get a run-stopping DT at 64, at 97 or at a move up from 96.

WHAT SHOULD BELICHICK"S STRATEGY BE?
I think that having the ammunition to meet the DT and OG need at 64 or 96, Belichick has a lot of flexibility at 32. IMHO, there is likely to a run on corners. Some would NOT consider this a run, since the players may be drafted at their Draft Day values.

I would think that 5-7 corners will be drafted by Pick 40. Does that seem about right to you all? If so, I don't ANY of the top 7 being a major reach at 32. Of course, the real issue is how many of the 7 Belichick really has being worthy to be drafted in the top 40, and how many of those are gone as the draft progresses. I could see Belichick moving up as his list of top corners available is reduced to 2 or 1.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yes, there is a ton of wiggle room. I could see this scenario happening

BACKDROP AS THE DRAFT MOVES PAST PICK 16
1) Belichick believes that he can get a starting LG at 64, at 97 or at a move up from 96.
2) Belichick believes that he can get a run-stopping DT at 64, at 97 or at a move up from 96.

WHAT SHOULD BELICHICK"S STRATEGY BE?
I think that having the ammunition to meet the DT and OG need at 64 or 96, Belichick has a lot of flexibility at 32. IMHO, there is likely to a run on corners. Some would NOT consider this a run, since the players may be drafted at their Draft Day values.

I would think that 5-7 corners will be drafted by Pick 40. Does that seem about right to you all? If so, I don't ANY of the top 7 being a major reach at 32. Of course, the real issue is how many of the 7 Belichick really has being worthy to be drafted in the top 40, and how many of those are gone as the draft progresses. I could see Belichick moving up as his list of top corners available is reduced to 2 or 1.

I think all of that is quite possible. I also think that if the right OL or DT were on the board at 32, BB could easily go that way.

Right now the guys that I see worth taking at 32 (+/- trade up or down) include RB Todd Gurley, OL TJ Clemmings, OL Cam Erving, DT Eddie Goldman, CB Marcus Peters, CB Byron Jones, CB Kevin Johnson, CB Eric Rowe). And that's not even looking at EDGE rushers. Need is a major factor, but certainly not the only one.

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[everlong]

I think all of that is quite possible. I also think that if the right OL or DT were on the board at 32, BB could easily go that way.

Right now the guys that I see worth taking at 32 (+/- trade up or down) include RB Todd Gurley, OL TJ Clemmings, OL Cam Erving, DT Eddie Goldman, CB Marcus Peters, CB Byron Jones, CB Kevin Johnson, CB Eric Rowe). And that's not even looking at EDGE rushers. Need is a major factor, but certainly not the only one.

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I wouldn't take Goldman or Johnson in that range but otherwise agree. I feel they are both over rated.

 

[mayoclinic]

I wouldn't take Goldman or Johnson in that range but otherwise agree. I feel they are both over rated.

I still think Goldman is well worth a 1st. He has a visit lined up with the Pats, FWIW, and Brendan Daly attended FSU's pro day today, where Goldman reportedly ran a 5.12 at 336#, and more importantly showed great movement in his drills:

Goldman cemented his status as a first-round prospect. After not working out at the combine, he validated what scouts have seen on tape: that he moves unlike a 6'4," 336-pound human being has any right to move.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ion-for-jameis-winston-eddie-goldman-and-more

https://twitter.com/Seminoles_com/status/582940337913626625

 

[Off The Grid]

"Market value" is a great way of putting it, as distinct from a draft board. No matter how idiosyncratic a team's own rankings are, they obviously have to maintain a sense of leaguewide rankings too -- and even of 31 other teams' individual needs. (The 2010 trade to nip ahead of Baltimore for Gronkowski demonstrates the importance of all 3 kinds of valuations: your own talent board, market value at that point in the draft, and who else might be after the same target.)

I stole the term from Grid, and can't claim ownership. I wish I could.

Honored, Sir. I thank Ye!!

 

[yopats]

Now that Manx has updated his big board would love to see OTG and Mayo update theirs!

You guys have been amazing this offseason.. I seriously live in the draft section.