Minimal Cap Increase for 2013

[Joker]

Can Ras-I play safety? What's Barrett's status ? Can he upgrade the position or is he made of glass? Is Chung here next year? How much does Wilson improve over his rookie year?

Chung,McCourty,Wilson and Gregory are next year's safeties? Where's the height? One tall safety would be nice.

hang on...help is on the way in a few years...

 

[BlueThunder]

Is he too young to put HGH in his bottle? Rodney must have some left over

 

[jason423]

Ill be curious to see what New England does with the roster next year from a cap standpoint. The big question is what do they do with Welker. My assumption was they would just franchise him again, but if they do that its essentially $10-12 million in cap room (depending on carryover) to sign around 8 guys including draft picks. Thats not a big cushion.

The cap relief candidates would be Brady, Mankins, and Wilfork. I dont think they would go deeper into Mankins. Wilfork to me is the interesting one. If hes at that stage where Belichick thinks its time to move away and get a draft pick he can do it and create almost $3.5 million in room. I havent heard anything about him angling for a new deal though and usually that seems to be what gets Belichick going with the trades.

I dont think they would redo Brady again. At this point, with the money that Brees received, I would not restructure again for the team. Brady is 35 right now and will be 36 when next season starts. For as good as he is his window to make one last killing is closing. Its just the nature of the game and if he gets hurt its over. I think he would need to get that extension on his current deal at a huge number (21-22 mil per year) to agree to any restructure.

The other name I think will be up is Brandon Lloyd. He has a $3 million dollar option in 2013. I could see them passing that up especially if they think the two tight ends will be healthy. That creates around $2.5 million in extra room.

Also it should be noted in my estimates that I am assuming that they were stuck with the full bill on Fanene. I have no idea if they tried tor recover money bases on the cut designation they gave him. If they were successful you can pull that number off the books. Its something I hope to be able to confirm one way or the other in February.

 

[Ring 6]

Ill be curious to see what New England does with the roster next year from a cap standpoint. The big question is what do they do with Welker. My assumption was they would just franchise him again, but if they do that its essentially $10-12 million in cap room (depending on carryover) to sign around 8 guys including draft picks. Thats not a big cushion.

The cap relief candidates would be Brady, Mankins, and Wilfork. I dont think they would go deeper into Mankins. Wilfork to me is the interesting one. If hes at that stage where Belichick thinks its time to move away and get a draft pick he can do it and create almost $3.5 million in room. I havent heard anything about him angling for a new deal though and usually that seems to be what gets Belichick going with the trades.

I dont think they would redo Brady again. At this point, with the money that Brees received, I would not restructure again for the team. Brady is 35 right now and will be 36 when next season starts. For as good as he is his window to make one last killing is closing. Its just the nature of the game and if he gets hurt its over. I think he would need to get that extension on his current deal at a huge number (21-22 mil per year) to agree to any restructure.

The other name I think will be up is Brandon Lloyd. He has a $3 million dollar option in 2013. I could see them passing that up especially if they think the two tight ends will be healthy. That creates around $2.5 million in extra room.

Also it should be noted in my estimates that I am assuming that they were stuck with the full bill on Fanene. I have no idea if they tried tor recover money bases on the cut designation they gave him. If they were successful you can pull that number off the books. Its something I hope to be able to confirm one way or the other in February.

Why would Brady not be willing to convert salary to bonus to lower the cap hit? There is no negative to him in that.

If you cut Llloyd, you have to replace Lloyd and it would cost more than you save.

 

[mgteich]

I'm OK with having a high draft priority for a safety, even first rounder if that is where the value is. We simply don't have the free agent money for that position.

Obviously, presuming re-signings is the issue. Will we pay for Welker, Talib, and Vollmer? What about their replacements? What will we need to pay for an additional WR and CB (re-signs or replacements for Edelman and Arrington)?

The safety play is still very poor. Gregory needs to be no more than an S3, and Wilson's got "Chung in coverage" disease. Safety should be the team's #1/1A priority in the offseason (assuming re-signings), along with WR.

 

[jason423]

Why would Brady not be willing to convert salary to bonus to lower the cap hit? There is no negative to him in that.

If you cut Llloyd, you have to replace Lloyd and it would cost more than you save.

There is no positive for him in it either. Basically his salary is guaranteed a few days following the Super Bowl I believe so whether he gets paid now or later is of no significance. Maybe Brady is the ultimate team guy and would do it. The way I would look at it is that his cap hit next season puts me in a position of power with the organization. My odds of getting 50 million guaranteed are far better at 36 than they will be at 38, especially when you consider the dangers of football. If I was him and New England approached me about restructuring with void seasons or simply pushing more cap into 2014, Id say no. Id offer the opportunity to lower the cap charge by getting an actual extension on my contract and try to force their hand. I think now that Brees got his 20 million a year Brady should push to surpass that and he has a great opportunity to do it this March.

 

[Ring 6]

There is no positive for him in it either. Basically his salary is guaranteed a few days following the Super Bowl I believe so whether he gets paid now or later is of no significance. Maybe Brady is the ultimate team guy and would do it. The way I would look at it is that his cap hit next season puts me in a position of power with the organization. My odds of getting 50 million guaranteed are far better at 36 than they will be at 38, especially when you consider the dangers of football. If I was him and New England approached me about restructuring with void seasons or simply pushing more cap into 2014, Id say no. Id offer the opportunity to lower the cap charge by getting an actual extension on my contract and try to force their hand. I think now that Brees got his 20 million a year Brady should push to surpass that and he has a great opportunity to do it this March.

Well, the first thing is that of course there is something in it for Brady to restructure, it helps them surround him with a better team.
Brady has never acted in the manner you describe, and I can't see him starting now and holding the team hostage by not doing a transaction that helps everyone in order to send an FU-pay me if you want me to be a team guy ultimatum.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Ill be curious to see what New England does with the roster next year from a cap standpoint. The big question is what do they do with Welker. My assumption was they would just franchise him again, but if they do that its essentially $10-12 million in cap room (depending on carryover) to sign around 8 guys including draft picks. Thats not a big cushion.

The cap relief candidates would be Brady, Mankins, and Wilfork. I dont think they would go deeper into Mankins. Wilfork to me is the interesting one. If hes at that stage where Belichick thinks its time to move away and get a draft pick he can do it and create almost $3.5 million in room. I havent heard anything about him angling for a new deal though and usually that seems to be what gets Belichick going with the trades.

I dont think they would redo Brady again. At this point, with the money that Brees received, I would not restructure again for the team. Brady is 35 right now and will be 36 when next season starts. For as good as he is his window to make one last killing is closing. Its just the nature of the game and if he gets hurt its over. I think he would need to get that extension on his current deal at a huge number (21-22 mil per year) to agree to any restructure.

The other name I think will be up is Brandon Lloyd. He has a $3 million dollar option in 2013. I could see them passing that up especially if they think the two tight ends will be healthy. That creates around $2.5 million in extra room.

Also it should be noted in my estimates that I am assuming that they were stuck with the full bill on Fanene. I have no idea if they tried tor recover money bases on the cut designation they gave him. If they were successful you can pull that number off the books. Its something I hope to be able to confirm one way or the other in February.

They have no amortization in the final year of Mankins deal so unless they assume he's falling apart as opposed to just struggling to rebound from the ACL they should be able to convert his salary and save almost $4M in 2013. Big Vince has exceeded their expectations for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a 2-3 year extension as a result to help manage his remaining cap hits better. Seymour was a different situation altogether. He didn't live up to his extension, which I always said was a test, and they weren't sure he would which is why it was a 3 year extension in his prime. He didn't play well hurt and he was hurt a lot and he was vocal about his deal and never exactly entirely all in. Like Milloy he had the potential to be a negative leader in the locker room. Hence they jumped at chance to flip him for a future first.

As for Brady, he will as always get his on terms they can live with in part because they keep extending him incrementally and early. Restructuring him to make room last year was probably not a shining cap management moment. Really has taken away all their limited tag leverage, not that it really matters. They know he's good for at least 2-3 more (barring catestrophic injury which is the same thing they risk on every contract regardless) and in the end that's all it's ever about (as long as you don't abuse restructure...). His new money AAV will likely be just a hair above or below Manning and Brees, but his overall functional AAV will remain well lower and his structure will be more in line with what works for them (lower and split bonuses and rolling guarantees that kick in early on). He's always managed to work within their limits while not taking a beating. But that shouldn't be confused with being a doormat - much as some here expect him to be. He'll take $20M in signing bonus (half of which was already rolling guaranteed and he took $16M last time) and $45M or so fully guaranteed ($42 last time) with his backend salaries on rolling guarantees that kick in similarly to the last deal. Not a ton of dead cap unless they create it later on. He can save them $10M in 2013 if they want to.

They really screwed the pooch with Welker for some reason. Can't really structure a team friendly deal now, that ship sailed a year or two ago.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why would Brady not be willing to convert salary to bonus to lower the cap hit? There is no negative to him in that.

If you cut Llloyd, you have to replace Lloyd and it would cost more than you save.

There is actually little upside for either side because of what it does to his 2014 cap hit ($26M+) and any possibility of tagging him into retirement... And it creates a scenario in which a team can decide to take a $16M dead cap hit and save $10M against the cap while fielding a youngster and flipping you to a "win now" team for picks... Like Jason says 36 coming off another MVP worthy season is a better time to negotiate although I think he misreads Brady if he thinks he will aim to set the bar on overall AAV, he never has. New money or guaranteed money (all that matters) is more his focus.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

If I were to guess, I am betting Brady sets out for 3 more years added to his contract, while the Pats will hold fast to two.

The Brady situation is going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. Belichick knows its in his cap systems best interest to extend Brady to lighten the load over the next two years. With that, he would be investing prime financial assets to a player playing over value at a position with diminishing results at his current age.

The rules will/should be different when dealing with Brady, but to what extent? They need to the cap space no matter what, and they only have so many players they can find that from (wilfork and mayo are the only feasible options) so I would say the decisions they make this offseason will be the most telling for the next 5-10 years than any of the previous 5.

 

[jsull87]

The safety play is still very poor. Gregory needs to be no more than an S3, and Wilson's got "Chung in coverage" disease. Safety should be the team's #1/1A priority in the offseason (assuming re-signings), along with WR.

I think you might be being a little harsh on Wilson at Safety. He is a rookie after all. How about waiting until next year to judge the kid as having Chungs coverage skills.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If I were to guess, I am betting Brady sets out for 3 more years added to his contract, while the Pats will hold fast to two.

The Brady situation is going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. Belichick knows its in his cap systems best interest to extend Brady to lighten the load over the next two years. With that, he would be investing prime financial assets to a player playing over value at a position with diminishing results at his current age.

The rules will/should be different when dealing with Brady, but to what extent? They need to the cap space no matter what, and they only have so many players they can find that from (wilfork and mayo are the only feasible options) so I would say the decisions they make this offseason will be the most telling for the next 5-10 years than any of the previous 5.

Brady is on the backend of his deal with 2 years and $29.5M remaining and $14.75M of that already essentially guaranteed and the remainder set to be. Extending him is cost effective because the guarantee becomes roughly $8.5-9M per year for the privilidge. I'm guessing he wants 4 which but they may opt for 3 given his age and the 5 year limits on amortization - although they could exceed that term for cap purposes as they did with Mankins (who presently has no dead cap in his final year which makes it easier to restructure him as needed over the next couple of seasons). Shortening the term will only ratchet up the guaranteed % and limit maneuverability. His guaranteed money either way is going to be what remains and is already implicitly guaranteed on his present deal plus roughly half of every year they chose to extend by at close to a $20M per new money average.

You look at Brady and what he has consistently accomplished over the last 3 seasons, and you look at what Manning is doing at roughly 2 years and 3 seasons older and coming off his neck surgeries, and you have to project Brady as likely to be well worth the projected investment on the risk/reward scale. In those added years guys like Rodgers and Luck and perhaps Ryan or Eli will be resetting the bar again in excess of $22M per - with Luck likely breaking the $25M per new money barrier the media always projected Manning to and by 2015 Brady will be costing you $3-5M less and clinging to top 5 with manageable dead cap (again, unless you opt to restructure for cap space again down the road at a time when the cap will be increasing fairly dramatically and you could afford to absorb some dead cap anyway in a worst case scenario since his replacement will be playing for relative peanuts).

To me the most dramatic and telling decision they face going forward is finding peanuts...by 2015-16 so he has at least a year to get developed and hopefully another in which he begins to push the old GOAT. He may not replace prime Brady even then, they may never again find that guy, but he has to be capable of at least above average performance on a well constructed team with a well established offense. And they may be in the market for some veteran insurance which depending on where their heads are at or what remaining alternatives arise I could see them bringing back Cassel or Hoyer if not next season than at some point thereafter on essentially vet minimum deals. I know some here think Mallett will be that guy, but he will either be too good to or not good enough in another year or two - which is when having someone behind Brady who can run this offense as presently constructed will really begin to matter.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Reiss' quick hits:

An offseason storyline resurfaced this week when Patriots receiver Wes Welker was asked about his contract status -- first on a conference call with Jacksonville reporters, and then in the Patriots' locker room. Welker, predictably, wasn't touching it. Given the way things have unfolded, I see the Patriots assigning another franchise tag on Welker in the offseason because he's too valuable to let walk. But here's one issue that looms: If Welker is tagged at $11.4 million, and you combine that with quarterback Tom Brady's approximate $22 million cap hit as a result of his 2012 restructuring, that's about 27 percent of the team's cap space on two players -- not the type of cap distribution the Patriots prefer because it affects the ability to build depth.

Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Pats - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I'm not sure I see the cap space for that given the current numbers. And Welker has proven that he has more than 1 year left at his current level of play. Screwing up once is not a good reason to screw up twice.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

From Reiss' quick hits:



Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Pats - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I'm not sure I see the cap space for that given the current numbers. And Welker has proven that he has more than 1 year left at his current level of play. Screwing up once is not a good reason to screw up twice.

Kind of a Reiss "duh" moment. Just realizing his assumption is problematic. Then failing to realize that Brady isn't going to have a $22M cap number one way or another. That said, $11.4M is still just too stiff a price to pay in light of other needs IMO. I hope they can extricate their heads out of their asses on this but given how rigid they have been with Wes I'm not hopeful. He saved their collective asses this season given all the owies their 26 TE's and the swiss army knife suffered and the time it took for Lloyd to assimilate. He's been playing hurt for months and they've been riding him like a pack mule. Not the way you treat an investment, more like how you treat a short term rental.

 

[mayoclinic]

Kind of a Reiss "duh" moment. Just realizing his assumption is problematic. Then failing to realize that Brady isn't going to have a $22M cap number one way or another. That said, $11.4M is still just too stiff a price to pay in light of other needs IMO. I hope they can extricate their heads out of their asses on this but given how rigid they have been with Wes I'm not hopeful. He saved their collective asses this season given all the owies their 26 TE's and the swiss army knife suffered and the time it took for Lloyd to assimilate. He's been playing hurt for months and they've been riding him like a pack mule. Not the way you treat an investment, more like how you treat a short term rental.

Welker seems like a fairly reasonable guy, he loves playing with Brady and for the Pats, and probably realizes its his best fit. I think it's more about pride than anything else. If the brain trust sat down and had an honest "we screwed up and you saved us" discussion, maybe there would be some basis for discussion going forward. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. :confused2:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker seems like a fairly reasonable guy, and he loves playing with Brady and for the Pats, and probably realizes its his best fit. I think it's more about pride than anything else. If the brain trust sat down and had an honest "we screwed up and you saved us" discussion, maybe there would be some basis for discussion going forward. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. :confused2:

I agree that is who Wes was. Not sure if that's who he will remain. It's kind of hard not to build resentments. His career is on the line, theirs isn't. The early season attempt to test theory had to sting over and above the contract stance. Just the money they wasted on ludicrous stranger signings that didn't pan out would have made giving him a 3-4 year extension relatively painless. Somehow I don't see Bill apologizing to Wes for that... I could see him publicly expressing some level of regret they were unable to come to terms and even privately seething at his own miscalculation - kind of like with Adam - and then just moving on because that's what he does.

To repeat a phrase Kraft once hurled at Bill in a moment of utter frustration...
whomevers bright idea it was to mindlessly eff with Welker was being a shmuck.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree that is who Wes was. Not sure if that's who he will remain. It's kind of hard not to build resentments. His career is on the line, theirs isn't. The early season attempt to test theory had to sting over and above the contract stance. Just the money they wasted on ludicrous stranger signings that didn't pan out would have made giving him a 3-4 year extension relatively painless. Somehow I don't see Bill apologizing to Wes for that... I could see him publicly expressing some level of regret they were unable to come to terms and even privately seething at his own miscalculation - kind of like with Adam - and then just moving on because that's what he does.

To repeat a phrase Kraft once hurled at Bill in a moment of utter frustration...
whomevers bright idea it was to mindlessly eff with Welker was being a shmuck.

Mo, you and I didn't completely see eye to eye on this one back last spring, and my personal take is that there was something to be said for each point of view. I was all for keeping Welker, but felt that locking up the TEs was the priority for the offense moving forward, and didn't want to see a long term deal for Welker preclude that. I'm guessing that was a consideration for the team. In any case, that's a done deal now. You've always been the champion of the "Welker is money in the bank" point of view, and he's proven you right again this season, and I freely admit that I, like most, probably underestimated him. I personally think that the offense is better when Brady isn't targeting Welker 18 times in a game, but there's no doubting Wes' value to the offense, and his reliability.

I wonder if there's some wiggle room for the FO to eat some "humble pie" and go back to WW and say something along the lines of "now that we've been able to lock up the young TE for the long haul, it changes our ability to focus on a long term deal", without making it personal. IDK if something like that would work. Welker buys into the team concept, and he understands that it's a business, not personal.

If so, I wonder what it would take to retain Welker. Would something like a 3 year $8M fully guaranteed deal do it? He's already made $9.55M this year unde the franchise tag, so he would walk away with almost $34M for 4 years on top of the $17M he's already made. Don't know how the cap figures could be finagled, but it would certainly be less than hitting him with the franchise tag again. I know Welker reportedly turned down 2 years fully guaranteed at $16M last season, but there's a big difference between the security of$16M and $34M. I'm just winging this one - it doesn't seem like there's a lot of wiggle room between the cap and what's already been on the table. As you say (somewhat more bluntly), the ship may already have sailed on this one.

 

[patman52]

I don't see the market for a 32 YO Wes Welker than most of you do. I don't think there is any team out there that thinks he is going to be as productive without Brady.

I am not saying he still won't be an upper echelon WR, just not one that a team will give 23 mill dollars to. I think Brady is going to play for 4 more years I rather see Bowe in here. A 28 year old in his prime who will be in his prime for the remaining 4 years of his career. My guess is that he would want 30 mill over the next 3 years. So a five year contract of a 20 mill bonus, with the 2 years fully guaranteed and partials in the 3rd and 4th year and the fifth no guarantees at all. Salaries of 3 mill, 5, 7. 8, 10. or you can add a more to the SB ,add phoney years to the back end. He wont care, all he is interested is how much money in the 1st three years that he knows he will see.

 

[mgteich]

Franchising Welker may make more sense than a longer deal. We can make 2013 work; 2014 will be more difficult. The only other must-sign for big bucks is Talib who is a candidate for a long-term deal that is cap friendly in 2013 and 2014.

Kind of a Reiss "duh" moment. Just realizing his assumption is problematic. Then failing to realize that Brady isn't going to have a $22M cap number one way or another. That said, $11.4M is still just too stiff a price to pay in light of other needs IMO. I hope they can extricate their heads out of their asses on this but given how rigid they have been with Wes I'm not hopeful. He saved their collective asses this season given all the owies their 26 TE's and the swiss army knife suffered and the time it took for Lloyd to assimilate. He's been playing hurt for months and they've been riding him like a pack mule. Not the way you treat an investment, more like how you treat a short term rental.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see the market for a 32 YO Wes Welker than most of you do. I don't think there is any team out there that thinks he is going to be as productive without Brady. I am not saying he still won't be an upper echelon WR, just not one that a team will give 23 mill dollars to.

Not so sure. The guy I'd point to is Reggie Wayne, who reportedly seriously considered signing with the Pats last offseason before re-signing with Indy for 3 years at $17.5M ($7.5M guaranteed). Wayne turned 34 a few weeks ago, and has 97 receptions for 1234 yards with a new rookie QB with 2 games left to play. His receiving skills haven't lost much at all, and his leadership has been instrumental in leading a young team back to the playoffs. Guys with the consistency of Wayne and Welker are rare.

I think Brady is going to play for 4 more years I rather see Bowe in here. A 28 year old in his prime who will be in his prime for the remaining 4 years of his career. My guess is that he would want 30 mill over the next 3 years. So a five year contract of a 20 mill bonus, with the 2 years fully guaranteed and partials in the 3rd and 4th year and the fifth no guarantees at all. Salaries of 3 mill, 5, 7. 8, 10. or you can add a more to the SB ,add phoney years to the back end. He wont care, all he is interested is how much money in the 1st three years that he knows he will see.

I'd personally rather have Welker and draft Markus Wheaton or Da'Rick Rodgers day 2. But that's JMHO.