Jarron Gilbert as a possible replacement for Seymour next year?

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I don't think we will have any problems in getting Wilfork signed,but I do think Seymour is going to go elsewhere as I expect Sey to want much more than the Pats may think he is worth by 2010 and I think Gilbert may be very high up on the Pats #23 board,I do not see Gilbert gone before the Pats select.

Gilbert is coming in for a visit to Gillette this upcoming monday

If there is a player who could be groomed to take Seymours place,I think Gilbert at least from his collegiate play might make a good pick at 23 although some say he needs to bulk up a bit in fact of all the round 1 DEs that should be drafted early, Gilbert seems most logical to become a Patriot.

DE is certainly a possible cause for concern in 2010 and I expect this area to be addressed early in the draft.

 

[mgteich]

I would like us to draft Jackson or Gilbert at DE. Many here like Gilbert a lot. I suspect that we can get him at 34, but it may not be worth the risk. The question is how high he is on Belichick's board.

Jackson would probably cost us our 23 plus our 47, presuming we could even get him at 14.

 

[patchick]

Gilbert is one of my primary first-round targets. I've made the case for him as a prospect before, but in terms of roster building strategy: the team could easily lose both Seymour and Green. I know that next year's draft class looks stronger at the position, but it's hardly ideal to go into the draft desperate for an instant starter on the line.

 

[mgteich]

I'm fine with Gilbert at 23. BTW, how high do you have Jackson rated.

Gilbert is one of my primary first-round targets. I've made the case for him as a prospect before, but in terms of roster building strategy: the team could easily lose both Seymour and Green. I know that next year's draft class looks stronger at the position, but it's hardly ideal to go into the draft desperate for an instant starter on the line.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would prefer both Gilbert and Hood to Jackson. I'm fine with either at 34. I don't see either being BVA at 23, but that's just me.

Wilfork will probably get extended and Seymour can potentially be franchised for 2010. I'm OK drafting a DE if BB sees the value there, but I wouldn't panic.

 

[mayoclinic]

As people have been questioning where certain other fast rising prospects have been rated by the so-called experts, let's look at where Gilbert has been getting rated:

- Rick Gosselin does not have him going in the first round on his first mock from 4/10, meaning he does not consider him a top-32 prospect.
- Mike Mayock hasn't put out a mock yet, but doesn't have Gilbert in his top 20 prospects overall or in the top 5 at either DE or DT.
- Todd McShay does not have him going in the first round on his most recent mock draft from 4/3.
- Mel Kiper has him going #44 in his most recent 4 round mock from 4/10
- Nolan Nawrocki rates him as a mid-3rd round pick on his most recent draft board and does not have him going in the first round on his most recent draft from 4/9.
- Rob Rang from NFLdraftscout does not have him going in the first round in his latest mock from 4/10.
- Mike Lombardi has Gilbert going #27 the Colts in his first mock from 3/25.

I think that Gilbert has terrific upside, as do some of the other prospects I favor, and I like him a lot. But I think it's far from a sure thing to say that he would be good value at #23. Not out of the question. But far from a sure thing.

 

[mgteich]

1) Just BTW, whose "value" are you using? Since you keep saying that Barwin is top value, you clearly are not talking about any of seasoned draft board lists.

2) Perhaps we should list our boards in the next couple of weeks; heat has already done so. I would have Gilbert ranked on my first round board. I would expect a higher ranking player to be available and drafted, but I would not be surprised to see Gilbert drafted.

3) I'm not at all sure that you can count on Seymour playing under a franchise tag. I suspect that we'd be in another tag and trade situation, with no pressure if there is no cap.

4) You do not mention Green. He has paid as a starter for years. We really have four "starters". IMHO, we are LIKELY to lose one of our top four DL contributers before the 2010 season (Seymour and/or Green). It takes a year (or perhaps half a year) for a DL (not named Seymour) to learn our system well enough to be counted on as a starter or major contributer. Others, including you, say that there is nothing to worry about. Is your conclusion really that we will be able to get a reasonable DE starter in free agency for a reasonable price or do you think that we will be able to trade up into the top 10 to get a DE starter?

5) My conclusion is that the place to find a DE is between 15 and 47 of this draft. If we don't, then this will put unneeded pressure on the 2010 off-season and/or draft.

I would prefer both Gilbert and Hood to Jackson. I'm fine with either at 34. I don't see either being BVA at 23, but that's just me.

Wilfork will probably get extended and Seymour can potentially be franchised for 2010. I'm OK drafting a DE if BB sees the value there, but I wouldn't panic.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

1) Just BTW, whose "value" are you using? Since you keep saying that Barwin is top value, you clearly are not talking about any of seasoned draft board lists.

2) Perhaps we should list our boards in the next couple of weeks; heat has already done so. I would have Gilbert ranked on my first round board. I would expect a higher ranking player to be available and drafted, but I would not be surprised to see Gilbert drafted.

3) I'm not at all sure that you can count on Seymour playing under a franchise tag. I suspect that we'd be in another tag and trade situation, with no pressure if there is no cap.

4) You do not mention Green. He has paid as a starter for years. We really have four "starters". IMHO, we are LIKELY to lose one of our top four DL contributers before the 2010 season (Seymour and/or Green). It takes a year (or perhaps half a year) for a DL (not named Seymour) to learn our system well enough to be counted on as a starter or major contributer. Others, including you, say that there is nothing to worry about. Is your conclusion really that we will be able to get a reasonable DE starter in free agency for a reasonable price or do you think that we will be able to trade up into the top 10 to get a DE starter?

5) My conclusion is that the place to find a DE is between 15 and 47 of this draft. If we don't, then this will put unneeded pressure on the 2010 off-season and/or draft.

Mayo posted his board a couple weeks ago... :confused2:

 

[mgteich]

Now we are mixing mocks with value lists. They are very, very different. I have made no statements with regard to mocks. I said that I would expect Gilbert to be high on Belichick's value list. I DO AGREE that based on value lists posted and a strict BPA draft policy, Gilbert should be available late in the second, likely at 58.

I AGREE that Gilbert is not a sure thing to be a good value at 23.

BACK TO MOCKS OF THE DRAFT
Most mocks do not consider DE to be a top need for the patriots. I disagree. Most mocks don't seem to consider that there are about three quality 3-4 DE's in the early part of the draft. NFLN has discussed this several times. There's Jackson, Hood and Gilbert. Do you see others who could expect to replace Green or Seymour by the beginning of the 2010 season? There are now ELEVEN 3-4 teams, many in the process of converting. Do you think that some might be looking hard at the 3-4 DE's available?

BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE OR BEST PLAYER AT POSITIONS OF NEED?
If many of the OLB's are still there, as seems expected, then we have the "luxury" of drafting the BPA. We also have the "luxury" of reaching a bit for the DE who we would groom to replace Seymour or Green in 2010.

As people have been questioning where certain other fast rising prospects have been rated by the so-called experts, let's look at where Gilbert has been getting rated:

- Rick Gosselin does not have him going in the first round on his first mock from 4/10, meaning he does not consider him a top-32 prospect.
- Mike Mayock hasn't put out a mock yet, but doesn't have Gilbert in his top 20 prospects overall or in the top 5 at either DE or DT.
- Todd McShay does not have him going in the first round on his most recent mock draft from 4/3.
- Mel Kiper has him going #44 in his most recent 4 round mock from 4/10
- Nolan Nawrocki rates him as a mid-3rd round pick on his most recent draft board and does not have him going in the first round on his most recent draft from 4/9.
- Rob Rang from NFLdraftscout does not have him going in the first round in his latest mock from 4/10.
- Mike Lombardi has Gilbert going #27 the Colts in his first mock from 3/25.

I think that Gilbert has terrific upside, as do some of the other prospects I favor, and I like him a lot. But I think it's far from a sure thing to say that he would be good value at #23. Not out of the question. But far from a sure thing.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

gilberts prospects have risen in the exact same manner as barwins.......

with the help of a youtube video

 

[mgteich]

I didn't mean to criticize mayo for not posting his choices. I agree that he did that a couple of weeks ago, and a dozen time before and after whichever post you are referring to.

As the draft gets closer, and more rumors are processed, it will be intersting to see how close our boards are. As I indicated, I don't think we will get much more interesting material regarding value, expect for a tidbit or two relating to character issues.

Mayo posted his board a couple weeks ago... :confused2:

 

[mayoclinic]

1) Just BTW, whose "value" are you using? Since you keep saying that Barwin is top value, you clearly are not talking about any of seasoned draft board lists.

2) Perhaps we should list our boards in the next couple of weeks; heat has already done so. I would have Gilbert ranked on my first round board. I would expect a higher ranking player to be available and drafted, but I would not be surprised to see Gilbert drafted.

3) I'm not at all sure that you can count on Seymour playing under a franchise tag. I suspect that we'd be in another tag and trade situation, with no pressure if there is no cap.

4) You do not mention Green. He has paid as a starter for years. We really have four "starters". IMHO, we are LIKELY to lose one of our top four DL contributers before the 2010 season (Seymour and/or Green). It takes a year (or perhaps half a year) for a DL (not named Seymour) to learn our system well enough to be counted on as a starter or major contributer. Others, including you, say that there is nothing to worry about. Is your conclusion really that we will be able to get a reasonable DE starter in free agency for a reasonable price or do you think that we will be able to trade up into the top 10 to get a DE starter?

5) My conclusion is that the place to find a DE is between 15 and 47 of this draft. If we don't, then this will put unneeded pressure on the 2010 off-season and/or draft.

The phrase "that's just me" was specifically added to indicate that it was merely my personal opinion that Gilbert and Jackson wouldn't be BVA at 23.

Most of the time I try to be fairly specific about distinguishing my own likes and preferences (which are quite strong at times) from information and general analysis. I make no pretense about having any special knowledge or ability. I have no idea what BB's draft value board looks like other than my own guess as to who is likely or isn't likely to be a fit for the Pats. And I am a firm believer in IBWT. Just to take one example, I am not a Jackson fan, and have been very open about that. But if the FO thinks he's BVA at 23 I'm fine with it.

I put out my first awkward "attempt" at a Pats big board at the end of March, almost 2 weeks ago: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...347-my-end-march-pats-top-50-big-board.html It was quite challenging and probably not a very good result. At that time Gilbert ranked #13 on my board, Jackson #19, and Hood #34. The first 5 players were consensus top 10 picks, so that left Gilbert #8 realistically among players whom I would pick at that time. So I consider him quite highly, and would love to see us get him with one of our four day 1 picks. I would just expect that one or more of the players I have ranked higher would be available at 23, and possibly 34. Somewhere in the 34-47 mix he would be a terrific pick, and great value if he fell into the 40's.

I guess I see a bit less urgency in taking a DE than you do. If things fell right I would love to pick up Gilbert, or possibly Hood. I'm just not so sure that it is such a compelling priority or that the players available are so fabulous that I would go ahead and prioritize it above other areas. For what it's worth, my two early frontrunners for picks at 23 both went back to school: ILB Brandon Spikes and DT/DT Ndamukong Suh. I would have jumped all over one of those two guys at 23 this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

I didn't mean to criticize mayo for not posting his choices. I agree that he did that a couple of weeks ago, and a dozen time before and after whichever post you are referring to.

As the draft gets closer, and more rumors are processed, it will be intersting to see how close our boards are. As I indicated, I don't think we will get much more interesting material regarding value, expect for a tidbit or two relating to character issues.

Criticize away, my friend. That's part of the fun and educational value of the board.

 

[klinefan]

I didn't mean to criticize mayo for not posting his choices. I agree that he did that a couple of weeks ago, and a dozen time before and after whichever post you are referring to.

As the draft gets closer, and more rumors are processed, it will be intersting to see how close our boards are. As I indicated, I don't think we will get much more interesting material regarding value, expect for a tidbit or two relating to character issues.

I've had that thought too. Some scouts aren't so high on him with the guy on huddlereport saying he wwas a 4th rounder because "with his athletic ability he should dominate" but was instead blocked 1 on 1 sometimes.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'd rather take Ron Brace at NT reserve, which we don't have. We have Seymour Warren, Le Kevin and Wright that can play DE. At NT we have Wilfork and Wright for passing downs, and of course Seymour, yes Seymour. People forget Seymour was our starting NT on the 2001 Superbowl club, as a rook.

You are smoking mighty fine rope if you htink any body is just going to come in and replace SeyMonsta. And it must be pretty good too, if you think Belichick will let Seymour walk. I actually think BB would let Brady go first,and that ain't happening!

 

[CoachK]

Gilbert isn't going to replace Seymour or anyone else in the NFL next year, He is raw and will need at least 1-2 years to get up to NFL speed.

I don't think he represents "value" until #58.

How's that for crawling out on a limb !!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Well, it depends where you project him, CoachK. If you view him as a 34 end, then I agree he's 1 - 2 years away. But if you see him as a 43 rush end in sub-packages with 34 end upside, then perhaps he does have quite an impact on the field this year. He's fast and physical for such a big guy.

Jarvis Green, our primary 43 rush end, had a career-high 8.5 sacks one year. Last year he only had, what, 2? He's brought in primarily to rush the passer, and not much else. I think Gilbert could effectively replace his production, as much as I really like Green, particularly for his community service work.

An ideal scenario (and I think it has about 10% chance of happening, max), is us trading Green for whatever we can get, assuming he hasn't already met his salary incentives, absorb the cap hit, and bring in Gilbert as his replacement. Perhaps by next year he is good enough to at least mount something of a challenge to Seymour, which gives us a little more leverage in contract negotiation.

But the thought of replacing Seymour, especially in his prime, is absolutely ludicrous. He's a once-in-a-generation talent at 34 end, and is possibly more responsible for our SB wins than Brady. Hersey, I know, but I stand by my opinion.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

I must admit I have never really talked about Gilbert (other then me trying to do the pool stunt myself:nono as I hope we can get Seymour signed even it it is an expensive contract. He has totally grown up in our system and is almost like Willie in that way. To get rid of a Pro Bowl DE in a 3-4 system should not be considered until he turns 35 ala Bruce Smith. I think Seymour is the best 3-4 DE since Smith and that his understands BB complex scheme and can executed it is to valuable to let go IMO.

Gilbert I like but I think that I made my case on where we should go with our DE for the future. We signed AD to a big contract and Sey is about the same age and is familiar with the system. I think we put of DE early in the draft for 2010 when we know better if we need a DT (Wilfork leaving) or DE (Seymour leaving). I think on day two I like Baker, Hampton inside with the ability to play DE in 3-4 and Kyle Moore, USC or Matt Shaughnessy, Wisconsin this year and move DL's draft priority up in 2010.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

5) My conclusion is that the place to find a DE is between 15 and 47 of this draft. If we don't, then this will put unneeded pressure on the 2010 off-season and/or draft.

I agree with this 100%. However if Jackson falls to #14, I see BB moving up and snatching him.

We need to trade for a second 1st rounder in 2010 so we have ammunition to move in and draft Mount Cody.

 

[mgteich]

I'm sure the offer of our 23th and 47th has already been discussed.

I agree with this 100%. However if Jackson falls to #14, I see BB moving up and snatching him.

We need to trade for a second 1st rounder in 2010 so we have ammunition to move in and draft Mount Cody.