Interesting QB article on Football Outsiders...

[drpatriot]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

At the top of the NFL draft, every general manager dreams of finding the next Peyton Manning or John Elway, but fears he will end up with the next Joey Harrington or Akili Smith. With that balance of high risk and high reward in mind, there has been plenty of debate about which of this year’s big three quarterback prospects will make the best pro. Conventional wisdom says that Matt Leinart is the most accomplished of the three. In the aftermath of the Rose Bowl, Vince Young was all the rage. Some scouts believe that dark horse Jay Cutler will end up better than both of them.

Everyone knows that in football, statistical analysis is no substitute for scouting, but it can be useful as an addition to scouting. And since scouting has been particularly iffy when dealing with first round quarterbacks — how’s Ryan Leaf these days? — there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters.

[Football Outsiders' new] projection system has been very accurate for quarterbacks drafted over the past ten years. As of now, the projection system only considers quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds. With these limitations in mind, here’s a preview of this research with a look at the big three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, where they might end up, and how they might do once they get there.

The article predicts Cutler to, over time, be similar in passing statistics to Brees or Leftwich. Young is projected to be like Donovan McNabb at the beginning of his career in passing without keeping running in mind. Leinart is projected to be like Carson Palmer or pre-2005 Culpepper.

Other quarterbacks mentioned are Omar Jacobs (okay), Charlie Whitehurst (good), Brodie Croyle (bust) and Kellen Clemens (bust).

Very interesting read.